Australian Dollar is collapsing

[Adumbration]

23.7 to the baht today.

 

Exchange at this rate if you need the money.  May not see 23.7 ever again.

 

RBA made the decision last meeting to take their foot off the rate increase peddle. A policital decision to try and prevent total collapse of Australian property market.  However the result will be the AUD collapsing to sub 50 USD.

[Adumbration]

And maybe the banks as well.  Osko payments down today.  Probably pre planned to try to prevent run on Ozzy banks.

[Adumbration]

No way the RBA can step in and buy the AUD either.  Foreign reserves are only 1.4 time the cost of just 1 month of our imports.

[Adumbration]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/banking/australian-bank-volt-collapses-urging-6000-customers-to-withdraw-funds/news-story/2cbdca763f8d4088d8808bdfef7d9bf9

[Adumbration]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/australias-central-bank-has-equity-wiped-out-by-billions-in-bond-losses.html

[thaibeachlovers]

Perhaps not such a lucky country any more, and I expect NZ to follow down the tubes given the wasted billions by present ( but hopefully not too much longer ) government.

Chickens coming home to roost methinks, and we are in for a dismal time.

Of course miracles can happen- time will tell.

[ezzra]

Not only the dollar, life in Australia become more difficult, confusing and expensive, not the Oz of yesteryear that's for sure...

[Sparktrader]

It fell to 18.5/19 baht before

 

Its been under 60c us before

 

Low due soon

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

May not see 23.7 ever again.

Yeah sure  it will be 24 baht in a 1 or 2.

 

Ever again like 50 years? 

[Adumbration]

8 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Yeah sure  it will be 24 baht in a 1 or 2.

 

Ever again like 50 years? 

Aussie banks are about to collapse.  RBA is bankrupt...literally.  So will have to print to bail banks. Printing will send AUD sub 50C USD.  Might even test 40c.  RBA cannot buy the AUD because it is bankrupt with no foreign reserves.

 

[KhunBENQ]

You call that collapsing?

(5 year chart)

Wish the Euro would collapse like this.

 

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Aussie banks are about to collapse.  RBA is bankrupt...literally.  So will have to print to bail banks. Printing will send AUD sub 50C USD.  Might even test 40c.  RBA cannot buy the AUD because it is bankrupt with no foreign reserves.

 

100% sure you are wrong. If it doesnt fall to us50c by november 30 you pay me 10,000 baht. If it does i pay you.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Aussie banks are about to collapse.  RBA is bankrupt...literally.  So will have to print to bail banks. Printing will send AUD sub 50C USD.  Might even test 40c.  RBA cannot buy the AUD because it is bankrupt with no foreign reserves.

 

Is not printing money the reason we are in the financial doodoo already? Too much paper/ plastic money in the system.

 

[Sparktrader]

Just now, KhunBENQ said:

You call that collapsing?

(5 year chart)

Wish the Euro would collapse like this.

 

Exactly! It went under 19 baht 2 years ago.

 

The aud/usd should hold 60c. Then go up.

[Sparktrader]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Is not printing money the reason we are in the financial doodoo already? Too much paper/ plastic money in the system.

 

Too many public servants. Too much waste. Country run by duds who dont care.

[KhunBENQ]

Ok. Long term things look different. Some 10 years ago it was over 30.

And the Euro was close to 50. Now 36.6 or so.

[Sparktrader]

Just now, KhunBENQ said:

Ok. Long term things look different. Some 10 years ago it was over 30.

And the Euro was close to 50. Now 36.6 or so.

Hit 31 baht per aud. But Thailand prices hardly changed in 10 years. 500 baht room still 500 baht. 40 baht noodle now 50 baht.

 

35 baht train 

 

 

[Sparktrader]

33 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Aussie banks are about to collapse. 

The aussie banks are the richest in the world. Retained profits in billions.

 

 

[Aussieroaming]

Australia, the lucky country. Aussies now seem to think that taking a massive mortgage out for a house and loaning 100% for a vehicle is the same as owning a house and a vehicle. They have been conditioned by a fat lazy government to think that this is normal. 

 

As for gas prices, what a joke to produce so much export gas and get shafted at home for prices.

 

Meanwhile the politicians waste taxpayer money and jam their snouts in the free food bin. The people need to tear down the political system and reset its priorities so that Aussies benefit first and whatever is left over they can flog off to the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lahgon29]

The Oz dollar was at 19 just after covid hit the markets. Now nearly 20% higher.  The Oz has been at roughly 50c to USD while Keating was boss, and hit 57 in 2020.

Its a commodity currency, and waxes and wanes with the cycle. Its exports, agricultural and materials and energy, are priced in USD, so all are getting premiums on exports. Oz has had a windfall in the last year of approx 50 billion AUD due to this.

We'll most likely have no recession there (looking at you, US, UK, EU) and energy supplies aren't a problem (UK, EU again).

Oz is in better shape than the EU, UK and most of the rest of the world. NZ is heading for big trouble.

 

Check your facts instead of just mouthing opinion and dressing it up as fact. OZ IS the lucky country, maybe not deserving, but is. 

[tandor]

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

No way the RBA can step in and buy the AUD either.  Foreign reserves are only 1.4 time the cost of just 1 month of our imports.

...the majority of Australian gold is still in the ground. Russia has heaps!

[Tradewind777]

1 hour ago, lahgon29 said:

The Oz dollar was at 19 just after covid hit the markets. Now nearly 20% higher.  The Oz has been at roughly 50c to USD while Keating was boss, and hit 57 in 2020.

Its a commodity currency, and waxes and wanes with the cycle. Its exports, agricultural and materials and energy, are priced in USD, so all are getting premiums on exports. Oz has had a windfall in the last year of approx 50 billion AUD due to this.

We'll most likely have no recession there (looking at you, US, UK, EU) and energy supplies aren't a problem (UK, EU again).

Oz is in better shape than the EU, UK and most of the rest of the world. NZ is heading for big trouble.

 

Check your facts instead of just mouthing opinion and dressing it up as fact. OZ IS the lucky country, maybe not deserving, but is. 

Good points in there for sure and I have the following to add..

There is no perfect country but I get the impression reading through this thread that there are so many armchair critics mouthing off about how bad a state Australia is in. Consider this: 

We are a democracy, yes with its bruises and failures but give me that over a dictatorship.

We don’t rely on borrowing from every Tom Dick and Harry to pay off the debt to Ann Sue or Sally whom they have previously borrowed from.

We are a resource country and earn our keep from exports of same. That’s lucky, not relying on dog eat dog trading to eek out a miserable survival.

 

We have social security and many of the recipients are even living elsewhere in the world as beneficiaries.

We are not persuaded to borrow up big to buy a new car prop up a local motor industry, far better to let those be made in tin pot dictatorships where the sheeple will make them “cheap as” with coolie labour terms akin to slavery.

We are very welcoming of foreigners to join us in our walk to build a prosperous, equitable society. We don’t favour locals over “aliens”.

We have a proper justice system using age old English based law that is not compliant to the government. There is separation of powers.

Finally we have a revered Monarchy which has served us well for centuries. That last monarch worked hard to make our country better. The next commits to do the same and likely will and the same monarchy tells us if we don’t want them anymore for whatever reason, we are totally FREE to do so. 
 

I get the feeling many of the writers in this thread moan about Oz in order to justify living somewhere which may not come close to the above ideals. Well good luck to you but I know side of my bread the butter is on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tradewind777]

1 hour ago, lahgon29 said:

The Oz dollar was at 19 just after covid hit the markets. Now nearly 20% higher.  The Oz has been at roughly 50c to USD while Keating was boss, and hit 57 in 2020.

Its a commodity currency, and waxes and wanes with the cycle. Its exports, agricultural and materials and energy, are priced in USD, so all are getting premiums on exports. Oz has had a windfall in the last year of approx 50 billion AUD due to this.

We'll most likely have no recession there (looking at you, US, UK, EU) and energy supplies aren't a problem (UK, EU again).

Oz is in better shape than the EU, UK and most of the rest of the world. NZ is heading for big trouble.

 

Check your facts instead of just mouthing opinion and dressing it up as fact. OZ IS the lucky country, maybe not deserving, but is. 

Good points in there for sure and I have the following to add..

There is no perfect country but I get the impression reading through this thread that there are so many armchair critics mouthing off about how bad a state Australia is in. Consider this: 

We are a democracy, yes with its bruises and failures but give me that over a dictatorship.

We don’t rely on borrowing from every Tom Dick and Harry to pay off the debt to Ann Sue or Sally whom they have previously borrowed from.

We are a resource country and earn our keep from exports of same. That’s lucky, not relying on dog eat dog trading to eek out a miserable survival.

 

We have social security and many of the recipients are even living elsewhere in the world as beneficiaries.

We are not persuaded to borrow up big to buy a new car prop up a local motor industry, far better to let those be made in tin pot dictatorships where the sheeple will make them “cheap as” with coolie labour terms akin to slavery.

We are very welcoming of foreigners to join us in our walk to build a prosperous, equitable society. We don’t favour locals over “aliens”.

We have a proper justice system using age old English based law that is not compliant to the government. There is separation of powers.

Finally we have a revered Monarchy which has served us well for centuries. That last monarch worked hard to make our country better. The next commits to do the same and likely will and the same monarchy tells us if we don’t want them anymore for whatever reason, we are totally FREE to do so. 
 

I get the feeling many of the writers in this thread moan about Oz in order to justify living somewhere which may not come close to the above ideals. Well good luck to you but I know side of my bread the butter is on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[topt]

5 hours ago, Adumbration said:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/banking/australian-bank-volt-collapses-urging-6000-customers-to-withdraw-funds/news-story/2cbdca763f8d4088d8808bdfef7d9bf9

Having read the link it is not exactly a major player is it? Similar issues have been faced by so called "challenger" banks in the UK.

[topt]

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/australias-central-bank-has-equity-wiped-out-by-billions-in-bond-losses.html

From the link - 

Quote

The RBA intends to hold the bonds until maturity and likely make a profit at that time, so offsetting the valuation losses.

A selective quote from the article which turns the negative link headline into something else - irrespective of how accurate that is. Apparently, from the same article, the Swiss also have issues........

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

The aussie banks are the richest in the world. Retained profits in billions.

 

 

Really.  What percentage of their equity is held in residential mortgages...70% of which will have their rates reset early next year and will fall almost into immediate NPL category.

[Adumbration]

57 minutes ago, topt said:

Having read the link it is not exactly a major player is it? Similar issues have been faced by so called "challenger" banks in the UK.

No volt is not, but the reason why they went bust is what you need to take notice of.

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Really.  What percentage of their equity is held in residential mortgages...70% of which will have their rates reset early next year and will fall almost into immediate NPL category.

Most houses have 20% plus equity. A 15% decline in prices wont do anything.

 

Look at cba balance sheet. Loaded with cash.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, Tradewind777 said:

Good points in there for sure and I have the following to add..

There is no perfect country but I get the impression reading through this thread that there are so many armchair critics mouthing off about how bad a state Australia is in. Consider this: 

We are a democracy, yes with its bruises and failures but give me that over a dictatorship.

We don’t rely on borrowing from every Tom Dick and Harry to pay off the debt to Ann Sue or Sally whom they have previously borrowed from.

We are a resource country and earn our keep from exports of same. That’s lucky, not relying on dog eat dog trading to eek out a miserable survival.

 

We have social security and many of the recipients are even living elsewhere in the world as beneficiaries.

We are not persuaded to borrow up big to buy a new car prop up a local motor industry, far better to let those be made in tin pot dictatorships where the sheeple will make them “cheap as” with coolie labour terms akin to slavery.

We are very welcoming of foreigners to join us in our walk to build a prosperous, equitable society. We don’t favour locals over “aliens”.

We have a proper justice system using age old English based law that is not compliant to the government. There is separation of powers.

Finally we have a revered Monarchy which has served us well for centuries. That last monarch worked hard to make our country better. The next commits to do the same and likely will and the same monarchy tells us if we don’t want them anymore for whatever reason, we are totally FREE to do so. 
 

I get the feeling many of the writers in this thread moan about Oz in order to justify living somewhere which may not come close to the above ideals. Well good luck to you but I know side of my bread the butter is on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Welfare state. 2m on the dole. 8m getting money for having kids. Public servants shuffling paper. Crazy system where you wait for gp for basic script. Cant buy alcohol after 9pm in most places. Hopeless pm who spends billions on rubbish.

 

If it wasnt for iron ore and coal the country be stuffed!!!

 

 

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, lahgon29 said:

The Oz dollar was at 19 just after covid hit the markets. Now nearly 20% higher.  The Oz has been at roughly 50c to USD while Keating was boss, and hit 57 in 2020.

Its a commodity currency, and waxes and wanes with the cycle. Its exports, agricultural and materials and energy, are priced in USD, so all are getting premiums on exports. Oz has had a windfall in the last year of approx 50 billion AUD due to this.

We'll most likely have no recession there (looking at you, US, UK, EU) and energy supplies aren't a problem (UK, EU again).

Oz is in better shape than the EU, UK and most of the rest of the world. NZ is heading for big trouble.

 

Check your facts instead of just mouthing opinion and dressing it up as fact. OZ IS the lucky country, maybe not deserving, but is. 

Sigh.  Nationalism wont displace the economic realities that are currently unfolding.  Two things are a certainty moving forward:

 

1. The AUD is toast

2. The Australian residential property market is toast

 

If any single external country enters the Ukraine conflict you can amend my above statements to badly burnt toast.