Pheu Thai Party’s Landslide Win ‘Very Unlikely’: Academic

[webfact]

Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, left, and Paetongtarn “Oong-ing” Shinawatra, head of Pheu Thai Family, right. 

 

By Thai Newsroom Reporters

 

IT WILL BE VERY UNLIKELY for the Pheu Thai Party to score a landslide victory in the next general election because the largest opposition camp will undeniably see the likes of the Move Forward Party contesting as their archrivals, according to a noted political scientist.

 

Thanaporn Sriyakul, president of Kasetsart University’s Political Science Association, forecast that the Pheu Thai Party, “practically owned” by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, will find it very unlikely to get as many as 250 MPs or more in the next general election to meet his landslide target since their bases of support among constituents nationwide will be quantitatively shared by the Move Forward Party.

 

Given common bases of popular support, especially among young voters in the 2019 general election, the Future Forward Party, earlier legally dissolved by court and practically renamed as the Move Forward Party, managed to get 80 MPs in their first-ever electoral campaigns, compared to 136 MPs secured by the Pheu Thai Party, resurrected from the dissolved People’s Power Party and Thai Rak Thai Party.

 

The speculated tug of war over votes in both constituency-based and party-listed modes between the Pheu Thai Party and Move Forward Party will make it unlikely for the former to score landslide triumphs as had been the case in the 2011 general election which landed Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, the premiership only to be overthrown in the 2014 coup orchestrated by army chief-turned-premier Prayut Chan-o-cha, according to the Kasetsart academic.

 

Full story: https://thainewsroom.com/2022/10/27/pheu-thai-partys-landslide-win-very-unlikely-academic/

 

-- © Copyright  THAI NEWSROOM 2022-10-28

 

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[2baht]

Who can afford the most votes?

[candide]

And in any case, they won't get the votes from the 250 appointed senators, so it is a rather theoretical discussion.

[ikke1959]

I hope that Move Forward will be the winner instead of the Pheu Thai with again the possibility of a Shinawatra leader, as we all know how that ended two times already. 

[OneMoreFarang]

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Only because her father is a wanted criminal? TiT

 

 

 

 

[MrMojoRisin]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Only because her father is a wanted criminal? TiT

 

 

 

 

…only because her father is the most popular and successful PM Thailand has ever had is the reason why.

[2baht]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Well if she's na rak, that's enough reason, they are very fickle! Maybe she has a cute dog.

[lujanit]

25 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

…only because her father is the most popular and successful PM Thailand has ever had is the reason why.

Tell that to the victims family's who were murdered by Thaksin's extrajudicial killings in his so-called war on drugs.  I am sure they would agree with you.

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Thanaporn Sriyakul, president of Kasetsart University’s Political Science Association, forecast that the Pheu Thai Party, “practically owned” by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, will find it very unlikely to get as many as 250 MPs or more in the next general election to meet his landslide target since their bases of support among constituents nationwide will be quantitatively shared by the Move Forward Party.

Pheu Thai party should dissolve itself or merge with the move forward party.

That would make Prayut worry.

[hotchilli]

54 minutes ago, 2baht said:

Well if she's na rak, that's enough reason, they are very fickle! Maybe she has a cute dog.

Woof... I would.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

her father is the most popular and successful PM

And the most hated.

 

He divided the nation like nobody else. If she come to power, then he is in power, and history will repeat itself. When will the red mob understand that it's insane to try the same again and again and expect a different outcome? 

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, 2baht said:

Well if she's na rak, that's enough reason, they are very fickle! Maybe she has a cute dog.

Ok, let's vote for Lisa.

But maybe I shouldn't say that too loud. I am sure millions would vote for her.

 

 

 

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, lujanit said:

Tell that to the victims family's who were murdered by Thaksin's extrajudicial killings in his so-called war on drugs.  I am sure they would agree with you.

Rather a special group... would the families of those who were killed or suffered due to drugs, addiction and related drug violence be larger or smaller?

[scorecard]

5 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

I hope that Move Forward will be the winner instead of the Pheu Thai with again the possibility of a Shinawatra leader, as we all know how that ended two times already. 

Good point. There's also the matter of 'best person / most capable person for the job, gauged through easily noted high performance/ high impact on objectives, and noticed superior management and more importantly noticed high impact leadership skills. 

[ballpoint]

5 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Only because her father is a wanted criminal? TiT

 

 

 

 

Changing one word of what you wrote shows how history repeats:

 

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Only because her brother is a wanted criminal? TiT

[OneMoreFarang]

11 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

Changing one word of what you wrote shows how history repeats:

 

Why would anybody vote for a relatively young woman with little experience to lead the nation?

Only because her brother is a wanted criminal? TiT

Several Thai people told me she looks so nice...

[billd766]

7 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

I hope that Move Forward will be the winner instead of the Pheu Thai with again the possibility of a Shinawatra leader, as we all know how that ended two times already. 

IIRC both times it was ended by a military coup.

 

It is the military coups that need to be permanently ended, and if it means executing a few generals, well there are hundreds more.

Edited October 28, 2022 by billd766
added extra text

[spidermike007]

If Move forward were to win the PM seat and lead the nation, could they dissolve the highly suspect New constitution, and oust the foul, corrupt, horrendous proxy senators? Now, that would be a step forward for the nation. 

 

Out with the toxic army. In with the youth. They are Thailand's only hope for a bright future. Otherwise, backwards is the only direction the army knows. 

[Sparktrader]

12 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Ok, let's vote for Lisa.

But maybe I shouldn't say that too loud. I am sure millions would vote for her.

 

 

 

Got my vote

[MrMojoRisin]

19 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And the most hated.

 

He divided the nation like nobody else. If she come to power, then he is in power, and history will repeat itself. When will the red mob understand that it's insane to try the same again and again and expect a different outcome? 

If he were the most hated, why do those opposed him fear elections so much?

 

Thailand was never more united than under Thaksin’s Prime Ministership. He was the first PM to complete a full term and was re-elected in the greatest landslide victory Thailand has ever seen. Hardly the achievements of a hated and decisive individual. 
 

The majority love him, a minority hate him (i.e. the reverse of Prayuth’s status).

 

…insane to try the same again and again and expect a different outcome you say - ????

coup after coup, constitution after constitution and these clowns still can’t beat Thaksin (or anyone he endorses) in an election.

 

 

[MrMojoRisin]

20 hours ago, lujanit said:

Tell that to the victims family's who were murdered by Thaksin's extrajudicial killings in his so-called war on drugs.  I am sure they would agree with you.

95% of the Thai population supported the war on drugs, as did the previous monarch.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

If he were the most hated, why do those opposed him fear elections so much?

 

Thailand was never more united than under Thaksin’s Prime Ministership. He was the first PM to complete a full term and was re-elected in the greatest landslide victory Thailand has ever seen. Hardly the achievements of a hated and decisive individual. 
 

The majority love him, a minority hate him (i.e. the reverse of Prayuth’s status).

 

…insane to try the same again and again and expect a different outcome you say - ????

coup after coup, constitution after constitution and these clowns still can’t beat Thaksin (or anyone he endorses) in an election.

How long have you lived in Thailand? Do you have first hand experience of what you write or just something that you read or saw in the news?

 

Many politicians before and after Thaksin are liked by some people and not liked by other people. Thaksin is loved by maybe >30% of Thais and at the same time hated by maybe >30% of Thais. The exact figures don't really matter. Thaksin never even tried to unite the nation. He had popular politics like the rice scam to get the votes from the poor (farmers). And at the same time, he enriched himself and his family and cronies. Obviously other politicians did that and do that as well, but I don't think any other Thai politician was so much corrupt in your face like Thaksin. He always had this: I do what I want and I don't care what you think and what are you going to do about it?

And then he fled the country when finally the courts did something about it and convicted him.

Thaksin wants to come back to Thailand and he obviously does not want to go to jail for his crimes.

His daughter will try to bring him back. And option 1 she will fail to do that or option 2 there will be mayhem if he returns. Both are bad for Thailand, and he should know. But obviously he does not care. It's about him and his ego.

Like I mentioned earlier: Hopefully he will die in the desert, the sooner the better.