What stocks are you buying in this bear market ...

[Adumbration]

On 11/21/2022 at 3:54 PM, Jingthing said:

I have a gut feeling that Mercado Libre is destined to be a grand slam but it may take 10 or 20 years.

Oooooh....Gut Feeling....the ultimate trading analysis tool.

[Jingthing]

On 11/22/2022 at 10:59 PM, 1FinickyOne said:

yes. 100% - - you have plenty of choices... why engage in what you dislike... buy coke, not Pepsi

You buy Tesla you buy Musk. Pass.

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You buy Tesla you buy Musk. Pass.

 

 

would not buy tesla or twitter or meta for that matter

 

I will buy a nice breakfasf in town tomorrow .  Hopefully no return on that investment.. 

 

You remember kenny shopsin on Morton Street in the West Village? Best breakfast but you needed to take out a mortgage to pay the bill. 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

would not buy tesla or twitter or meta for that matter

 

I will buy a nice breakfasf in town tomorrow .  Hopefully no return on that investment.. 

 

You remember kenny shopsin on Morton Street in the West Village? Best breakfast but you needed to take out a mortgage to pay the bill. 

Definitely not meta.

[Gottfrid]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:50 AM, Jingthing said:

But picking the winners is the difficult part.

Feeling like that, it´s better to stay out of the game.

[Jingthing]

Just now, Gottfrid said:

Feeling like that, it´s better to stay out of the game.

If you say so. 

Risk is my middle name. 

[Hanaguma]

Any of the larger Candian bank stocks are pretty reliable and will show constant improvememt- Royal Bank, CIBC, Bank of Montreal, etc.

 

If you want stability, a couple of good ETFs that track the major indices are from Horizons:

 

HXS tracks the S and p

HXT tracks the Toronto Stock Exchange

 

Finally a fun pick that may pay off- the American drug company Exelixis. They specialize in cancer treatment drugs and have some in testing that may pay off big.  Also have large cash in hand holdings.  

[ozimoron]

Walmart and other non discretionary consumer staples.

 

Tech is shedding jobs like a dog sheds fleas right now. Energy stocks have probably peaked. Just my gut feeling.

Edited November 28, 2022 by ozimoron

[1FinickyOne]

41 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Definitely not meta.

Some of the ego swollen genius are idiots as well as savants

 

So. You dont know kenny shopsin. Hes dead now anyway.. but you at least remember Rays Pizza and Juniors cheesecake in Brooklyn? I am in the village (thai not greenwich) now and am having nostalgic moments.. 

[Lacessit]

On 11/23/2022 at 12:13 AM, Adumbration said:

Oooooh....Gut Feeling....the ultimate trading analysis tool.

What was your analysis tool in predicting the AUD was going down the toilet, or was that gut feeling as well?

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

What was your analysis tool in predicting the AUD was going down the toilet, or was that gut feeling as well?

Have you checked the AUD THB exchange rate today?

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Have you checked the AUD THB exchange rate today?

23.8, as usual fluctuating between that number and 24.2. Your prediction was it would not see 23.7 again, about six weeks ago.

Do let me know when you cease reacting to single data points. People who understand statistics look at trends and outliers.

[ozimoron]

15 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

23.8, as usual fluctuating between that number and 24.2. Your prediction was it would not see 23.7 again, about six weeks ago.

Do let me know when you cease reacting to single data points. People who understand statistics look at trends and outliers.

Interestingly, when I first came to Thailand I remember the exchange rate was 23.84 for AUD. The year was 1979.

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Interestingly, when I first came to Thailand I remember the exchange rate was 23.84 for AUD. The year was 1979.

I suppose I got lucky, when I deposited the 800K for my retirement visa, it was 29.5.

[Adumbration]

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I suppose I got lucky, when I deposited the 800K for my retirement visa, it was 29.5.

Yeah...real lucky.  Paltry bank interest return on your 800K for a decade.  But you will be happy to that know I am in the same boat.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Adumbration

[Adumbration]

Wow this thread died on the vine early.

 

I guess it just reflects how financiallly illiterate most people are.

[Adumbration]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:45 PM, Sparktrader said:

You can sell shares in seconds. I have bought and sold in 30 minutes making 100% on penny stocks.

Back in Oz I used to have an investment company.  I was a very active trader.  In my most focussed year my turnover was 16.2 million.  My most notable loss was 35K200 in 10 minutes.  Entirely my own fault.

 

Stock picking is a fools errand and akin to hunting unicorns IMHO.

 

In my experience skim trading is the most effective.  But it requires actualy work and discipline to manage your trades.

 

As I posted above I am currently skim trading a junk bond fund.  I have a GTC buy order in.  The price got away from me a bit over the last week.  But I see the rally is now over and the price is now moving back to me.  

 

I also trade very actively on the SET.  But I only trade Thai derivate warrants and never common stocks.  Warrants enable you to make money when the market is going up or down.  I made a tidy sum on ERW long dated put warrants when covid arrived.

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Wow this thread died on the vine early.

 

I guess it just reflects how financiallly illiterate most people are.

Statistically illiterate as well, in your case.

I am financially literate enough to last owe anyone any money in 1974.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Lacessit

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Yeah...real lucky.  Paltry bank interest return on your 800K for a decade.  But you will be happy to that know I am in the same boat.

Not sure what you mean, rather ambiguous.

Schadenfreude is not my thing.

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Wow this thread died on the vine early.

 

I guess it just reflects how financiallly illiterate most people are.

Sadly, a true statement that applies to the masses. The bigger problem however is the extent to which people who think they are financially literate or skilled in certain areas, in the bigger picture, really don't have a rats arze clue what they're doing. In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.

[nigelforbes]

I'm now back to within 2% of the peak in my investments and am cautiously considering what I may invest in next. I'm solely a funds kind of person. My philosophy is to find the best skilled Fund Manager to do the job they've trained to do, despite knowing what I do I'll never be as good as them so why pretend otherwise. 

 

I'm 50% global equities, 25% bonds/other and 25% cash. Sliced another way I'm 43% Wealth Preservation Funds and 33% Managed Equities Funds. I just added 6% Royal London Global Select and am ready to add 5% Fidelity European Trust (FEV), both risk averse and proven low risk equity funds.  My equities are currently 18% US, 11% EU, 6% UK, 4% Japan, 5% Asia Dev and 6% EM. Until the Fed settles down and the rate increases pivot and the effectives of recession are understood, it's not a good time to be tweaking or dabbling, Wealth Preservation is where it's at, for the time being. 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I'm now back to within 2% of the peak in my investments and am cautiously considering what I may invest in next. I'm solely a funds kind of person. My philosophy is to find the best skilled Fund Manager to do the job they've trained to do, despite knowing what I do I'll never be as good as them so why pretend otherwise. 

 

I'm 50% global equities, 25% bonds/other and 25% cash. Sliced another way I'm 43% Wealth Preservation Funds and 33% Managed Equities Funds. I just added 6% Royal London Global Select and am ready to add 5% Fidelity European Trust (FEV), both risk averse and proven low risk equity funds.  My equities are currently 18% US, 11% EU, 6% UK, 4% Japan, 5% Asia Dev and 6% EM. Until the Fed settles down and the rate increases pivot and the effectives of recession are understood, it's not a good time to be tweaking or dabbling, Wealth Preservation is where it's at, for the time being. 

Your post reminds me of a response by a fund manager, when he was asked if he lay awake worrying about the investments he made on behalf of his clients. He said " Why should I lose

any sleep? It's not my money."

 

I don't know what it is like elsewhere, IME fund managers in Australia are mainly concerned with their commissions/fees, and the kickbacks they get by steering clients towards investments they are pally with. They don't give a flying <deleted> about their customers.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Lacessit

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Your post reminds me of a response by a fund manager, when he was asked if he lay awake worrying about the investments he made on behalf of his clients. He said " Why should I lose

any sleep? It's not my money."

If I hold seven funds and each fund contains between 50 and 100 companies globally, that's a lot of room for slop. At any point in time up to two of my funds don't perform at an acceptable level but the other five compensate, I can afford to have Fund Managers who don't perform well but they wont last long, either with me or within the industry where performance is the be all end all of success for them. If I was trying to manage that volume and I didn't do well, I'd have no where to go.

[Gottfrid]

16 hours ago, Jingthing said:

If you say so. 

Risk is my middle name. 

Nothing wrong with that. Risk is a calculated factor. Not something the will be implemented by questions in an open forum. If a person really have a solid and good investment plan and knows the right choices. Do you really think someone would share that and risk smaller profit?

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

If I hold seven funds and each fund contains between 50 and 100 companies globally, that's a lot of room for slop. At any point in time up to two of my funds don't perform at an acceptable level but the other five compensate, I can afford to have Fund Managers who don't perform well but they wont last long, either with me or within the industry where performance is the be all end all of success for them. If I was trying to manage that volume and I didn't do well, I'd have no where to go.

In 2017, there was a Royal Commission in Australia into banks, financial institutions and financial advisers. The findings were quite damning.

I am not sure fund managers and financial advisers are the same beast, the lines seem to be blurred in Oz.

Back in the eighties, I engaged a firm called Financial Wisdom, actually a subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank. The representative recommended four stocks.

Two stayed static, one rose by 20%, and the fourth tanked by 70%.

I had mentioned to him a stock which I had been following for some time in retail food, I thought it was seriously undervalued. He was dismissive. Three months later, it doubled in price.

After liquidating my holdings, I developed a rather jaundiced view of the industry. The fourth company declared bankruptcy about 2 years later.

Not the same as a fund with a spread of 500 companies, but I think you get my drift.

 

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

If I hold seven funds and each fund contains between 50 and 100 companies globally, that's a lot of room for slop. At any point in time up to two of my funds don't perform at an acceptable level but the other five compensate, I can afford to have Fund Managers who don't perform well but they wont last long, either with me or within the industry where performance is the be all end all of success for them. If I was trying to manage that volume and I didn't do well, I'd have no where to go.

I am a bit rusty.  Probably because I now live in a tiny fishing village and spend most days at sea fishing and diving by myself.

 

Please explain to me the benefit of diversification when all asset classes are falling in value?

 

And if you have time also let me know why you think the fed is going to pivot?

 

My money is on cooling of CPI print early next year and then a resurgence later in the year or early 2024.  Higher rates and for longer than anyone now expects.  Flag my post and we will see if I am correct.

[nigelforbes]

46 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

In 2017, there was a Royal Commission in Australia into banks, financial institutions and financial advisers. The findings were quite damning.

I am not sure fund managers and financial advisers are the same beast, the lines seem to be blurred in Oz.

Back in the eighties, I engaged a firm called Financial Wisdom, actually a subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank. The representative recommended four stocks.

Two stayed static, one rose by 20%, and the fourth tanked by 70%.

I had mentioned to him a stock which I had been following for some time in retail food, I thought it was seriously undervalued. He was dismissive. Three months later, it doubled in price.

After liquidating my holdings, I developed a rather jaundiced view of the industry. The fourth company declared bankruptcy about 2 years later.

Not the same as a fund with a spread of 500 companies, but I think you get my drift.

 

Fund Managers (FM's) and Financial Advisors (IFA) are very different things. IFA's advise people what to do with their assets and are a dime a dozen, the lowest form of life on the planet I know of, second only to traffic wardens.

 

FM's manage investment funds and do the analysis as to which companies their fund will invest in to achieve the best return from the fund. Famous FM names include Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio, John Paulson, George Soros, Neil Woodford. FM's don't typically deal with the public and they don't sell shares in their funds, others do that.

[xylophone]

On 11/1/2022 at 8:49 AM, Lacessit said:

A guy who correctly predicted the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market in 2008, and made $457 million for his investors with his hedge fund, Scion Capital. There's a film about him, called "The Big Short."

The movie, "The Big Short" is excellent and although it cut a few corners, it really does lay open the "make money at all costs" mentality of not only some of the investment banks, but also the ratings agencies – – we have now experienced what happens when the "regulation" of financial products is left to the very banks/institutions which provide them.

 

And for the record I am also in peer-to-peer lending (paying 6.5% per annum, paid monthly) and only hold a couple of NZ stocks both of which deliver an almost 5% dividend yield, and one whose share price has moved from $3.75 when I bought it, to now $8.19, whilst the other has been a bit slower, and was priced at $3.70, now at $5.22.

 

Not looking to buy any more and at my age, so what investments I have will suit me fine until I visit the great vineyard in the sky.

[pomchop]

Put all your $$ into pattaya beer bars...make sure title is in Noy's name.  What could go wrong?

[Lacessit]

20 minutes ago, xylophone said:

The movie, "The Big Short" is excellent and although it cut a few corners, it really does lay open the "make money at all costs" mentality of not only some of the investment banks, but also the ratings agencies – – we have now experienced what happens when the "regulation" of financial products is left to the very banks/institutions which provide them.

 

And for the record I am also in peer-to-peer lending (paying 6.5% per annum, paid monthly) and only hold a couple of NZ stocks both of which deliver an almost 5% dividend yield, and one whose share price has moved from $3.75 when I bought it, to now $8.19, whilst the other has been a bit slower, and was priced at $3.70, now at $5.22.

 

Not looking to buy any more and at my age, so what investments I have will suit me fine until I visit the great vineyard in the sky.

Cash, precious metals, and peer-to-peer. I have some cash in a share trading account, waiting for BHP to go back below $40. Or silver to go back below $30.

I don't draw on the peer-to-peer monthly, I reinvest and take out money about once a year to supplement my OAP.