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What stocks are you buying in this bear market ...

Jingthing
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Lacessit Star Member

Lacessit

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Who is Michael Burry?

A guy who correctly predicted the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market in 2008, and made $457 million for his investors with his hedge fund, Scion Capital. There's a film about him, called "The Big Short."

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Boomer6969
Boomer6969

And what is the market never recovers? Or at least a huge chunk of it, as climate change drives a major reshuffle of the economy?

Lacessit
Lacessit

I'm in cash, precious metals, and peer-to-peer lending. Not really interested in casinos.

Sparktrader
Sparktrader

Choppy markets are common after downturn. I expect 12 months of chop then a bull market.    

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

Posted
Posted
Just now, nigelforbes said:

You of course can find isolated examples but markets remain completely illogical.

 

Ah yes, averages. Averages can be used to justify almost anything, whether or not they are actually relevant is another story. Why? Because averages rely on historic data and markets are forward looking, just because they did something in the past doesn't mean they will continue to do the sane thing in the future.

The best predictor of the future is the past. All cycles.

 

Markets are not illogical all the time, just over reactions.

 

Markets go up or down more than they should due to greed or fear.

 

The long trend is up.

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

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6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/paul-tudor-jones-believes-we-are-in-or-near-a-recession-and-history-shows-stocks-have-more-to-fall.html

 

300 days for average recession is about 12 months of chop.

 

I agree with Paul.

 

Paul is 20 times richer than "Burry".

 

 

If US GDP growth in 3Q22 was 2.6% it can't be in a recession (which is defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP)! 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

 

But interest rate increases are lagging indicators as far as GDP is concerned, the rate increase today won't show up in GDP until successive quarters.

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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Just now, nigelforbes said:

If US GDP growth in 3Q22 was 2.6% it can't be in a recession (which is defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP)! 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

 

But interest rate increases are lagging indicators as far as GDP is concerned, the rate increase today won't show up in GDP until successive quarters.

Technically correct. Real or technically are different.

 

 

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

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4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

The best predictor of the future is the past. All cycles.

 

Markets are not illogical all the time, just over reactions.

 

Markets go up or down more than they should due to greed or fear.

 

The long trend is up.

The long trend is a meaningless indicator, anything more than 200 day MA is pointless, anything less is inconclusive. BTW, the long trend (whatever that is), has always been up in the past.

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

All these kinds of wild disagreements make markets.

I think its a good time to buy  battered stocks of otherwise promising companies understanding things can go down much further from here. You can't pick bottoms exactly.

I  can pick noses. PTJ has been goos for 40 years. Next year is the low.

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whiteman Gold Member

whiteman

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Plenty of Cash some under the mattress the rest in 3 banks and gold bars, I have 2 pensions one is a private define benefit pension paying out till I die + a rental property which is free hold, and a freehold home which I live in now. 

 

All so a government pension which is the 2nd one.  I am 75. Sold all my shares over 12 months. ago.  Would not touch the share market any time soon.

We live on 1 rai so can use the land to grow food if need to. In the Clong just outside my door has plenty of fish in it.

 

If all goes to pot we will manage.       Dark clouds on the horizon not looking good batten down guys.

 

 

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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Just now, nigelforbes said:

The long trend is a meaningless indicator, anything more than 200 day MA is pointless, anything less is inconclusive. BTW, the long trend (whatever that is), has always been up in the past.

I Iisten to PTJ, proven track record. Not randoms. Up to you.

 

Whats your track record?

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Economic data is all smoothed and selective. Inflation data is cherry picked.

 

Have you studied economics?

We were talking about GDP, which is finitely measurable, not inflation. 

 

Goodbye Sparktrader.

Edited by nigelforbes
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1FinickyOne Ruby Member

1FinickyOne

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3 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

US market doesn't look cheap - risen a fair bit lately

Actually, a good point... Being in US $ and living in Thailand, my buying power this year, my net worth measured in baht is up 10-15% this year... it offsets the 3-4% that I have lost in the market

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Have you studied economics? I think it's important to say that yes or no. 

With a name like trader I'd expected a higher quality of debate with arguments supported by evidence rather than one liners and constant back and forth confusion between GDP and inflation..... that doesn't seem likely.  And despite you thinking my education or work record is important to this discussion, I don't think it is relevant at all since either possible answer doesn't change what I have written or will write., only the arguments that are put forth are important. You'll forgive me if I ignore you from this point onwards.

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

Posted
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15 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

With a name like trader I'd expected a higher quality of debate with arguments supported by evidence rather than one liners and constant back and forth confusion between GDP and inflation..... that doesn't seem likely.  And despite you thinking my education or work record is important to this discussion, I don't think it is relevant at all since either possible answer doesn't change what I have written or will write., only the arguments that are put forth are important. You'll forgive me if I ignore you from this point onwards.

So that is a no. I don't think anyone should take investment advice off forums. Especially if people have never studied economics or finance.

 

Listen to Buffett or PTJ. Proven track records.

 

 

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

Posted
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6 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Many of the economic and tax policies are out dated.  I will probably buy nothing until the end of next year.

Biden has been a big disappointment keeps saying everything  is just fine. 

The U.S. needs a new President with fresh ideas.

Biden is exactly what was expected if anyone was paying attention. 

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Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

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14 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Many of the economic and tax policies are out dated.  I will probably buy nothing until the end of next year.

Biden has been a big disappointment keeps saying everything  is just fine. 

The U.S. needs a new President with fresh ideas.

It's normal for any president to project a positive economic spin.

Mistakes have been made especially by the fed. The fed is independent. 

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Digitalbanana Ruby Member

Digitalbanana

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7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I want stocks with great long term potential to hold indefinitely. 

You probably cannot go wrong then as stocks always go higher in the long run. I would only invest in indexes or solid companies not loosing money in today's high interest rates. P/Es today are below the average so dollar cost averaging in a little each period usually works with a low risk to reward ratio. Staying in cash isn't wise as it looses value daily with inflation.

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

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59 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

So that is a no. I don't think anyone should take investment advice off forums. Especially if people have never studied economics or finance.

 

Listen to Buffett or PTJ. Proven track records.

 

 

OK, I'll take your bait, just this time. I have a BA Econ. from Warwick dated 1971 and a higher degree from FAU in the US. I've worked in banking, Big 4 Finance and management consultancy (Deloitte) since 1981 with an emphasis on merger, acquisition, risk and new start up. I've worked for Standard Chartered in Hong Kong for many years, Goldman Sachs and Barclays in New York as well as Henderson's in The City. I've also freelanced for at least a dozen UK Building Societies where I've implemented Treasury systems. All of which means zero. We were debating markets, you failed in that, badly. Nobody was giving advice.

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Thailand J Silver Member

Thailand J

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Digitalbanana said:

You probably cannot go wrong then as stocks always go higher in the long run. I would only invest in indexes or solid companies not loosing money in today's high interest rates. P/Es today are below the average so dollar cost averaging in a little each period usually works with a low risk to reward ratio. Staying in cash isn't wise as it looses value daily with inflation.

I have most of my money in Index funds in the last 40 years. Been through many corrections, always look forward to long term, dont panic.

S&P 500 p/e is about 16.3  .Here is the latest Earning Insight by Factset.

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_102822.pdf

 

Goto page 10 and 11, everthing looks good.

 

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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5 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

OK, I'll take your bait, just this time. I have a BA Econ. from Warwick dated 1971 and a higher degree from FAU in the US. I've worked in banking, Big 4 Finance and management consultancy (Deloitte) since 1981 with an emphasis on merger, acquisition, risk and new start up. I've worked for Standard Chartered in Hong Kong for many years, Goldman Sachs and Barclays in New York as well as Henderson's in The City. I've also freelanced for at least a dozen UK Building Societies where I've implemented Treasury systems. All of which means zero. We were debating markets, you failed in that, badly. Nobody was giving advice.

The OP asked for stock picks. You said it might take 10 years for the market to recover. Let us see how that goes.

 

I see a new high in 2 years.

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I worked for awhile as a technical analyst but came to the conclusion it's more like astrology.

Paul Tudor Jones uses Elliott Waves. Most currency traders use candle sticks and trading channels.

 

A chart is just a measure of market forces. Nothing magical about it.

 

The US trading championship is normally won by chartists as well.

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Thailand J Silver Member

Thailand J

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4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It seems to me for the foreseeable future we're no longer in a time of ez moolah where you can throw darts and pick nothing but winners. 

You want to look for top performers of tomorrow, I can only wish you good luck.

Index funds are for people like me.

 

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Sparktrader Star Member

Sparktrader

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Posted

The competition began in 1983 and ran for fifteen years. It was restarted in 2019. Winning the $1,000,000+ stock division with a record shattering + 334.8% is Mark Minervini. The prior record in the $1,000,000+ stock division was + 119.1%, set by George Tkaczuk in 2020.

 

Guess what Mark uses? Charts!

 

https://au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/2021-united-states-investing-championship-131500406.html

 
 
 
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