Thailand’s economic think tank predicts 3.2% growth this year

[snoop1130]

(FILES) In this file photo taken on July 18, 2022 tourists gather and take pictures in the grounds of the Grand Palace in Bangkok. (Photo by Jack TAYLOR / AFP)

 

Bolstered by recovery in the tourism sector, Thailand’s economic growth for the whole of 2022 is forecast to be 3.2%,without further need for major economic stimulus packages, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

 

NESDC Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan said that growth in the third quarter of this year is expected to be 4.5%, thanks to the return of foreign tourists, after Thailand eased travel restrictions, adding that this is expected to increase growth for the whole year to 3.2%.

 

He said that the economic stimulus packages being considered by Finance Ministry, for January 1st to February 15th, such as “Shop Dee Mee Kuen” or “Shop Chuay Chart”, are minor projects aimed at increasing the purchasing power of consumers.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-economic-think-tank-predicts-3-2-growth-this-year/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-11-22

 

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[ThailandRyan]

And I predict the world economies will see inflation disappear and the recessions being discussed will evaporate as unemployment the world over will decrease to less than 1% and prices for homes and fuel will drop to prices not seen since the 1970's.  My Think tank is fueled by a few shots of espresso......

[AgentSmith]

Sure if you send part of your economy to rock bottom it is bound to produce nice growth figures after you set it loose again. Those figures mean absolutely nothing. Western countries show higher figures with much less impact from the pandemic. Now that's growth.

[nobodysfriend]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand’s economic growth for the whole of 2022 is forecast to be 3.2%

That looks rather healthy , compared to some western economies that prepare for recession .

Thailand now has the chance to become a ' hub ' for sustainable energy development for south east asia .

Why is there no thai company producing EV's yet ?

[JimboB4]

And that’s ONLY because of legalized cannabis. Keep it up and it’ll stay up. 

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, JimboB4 said:

And that’s ONLY because of legalized cannabis. Keep it up and it’ll stay up. 

isn't that what Viagra is for, oh wait that's only for the stiff economy hoped for in the entertainment venues.

[nigelforbes]

6 hours ago, AgentSmith said:

Sure if you send part of your economy to rock bottom it is bound to produce nice growth figures after you set it loose again. Those figures mean absolutely nothing. Western countries show higher figures with much less impact from the pandemic. Now that's growth.

Let's compare those economies on the basis of debt shall we, then you'll really understand what the impact is? Western economies borrowings are huge plus they're headed for recession. Thailand's borrowing are still low and they have avoided recession.

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Let's compare those economies on the basis of debt shall we, then you'll really understand what the impact is? Western economies borrowings are huge plus they're headed for recession. Thailand's borrowing are still low and they have avoided recession.

 

 

 

Yet Thailands residents have a personal household debt as high as 80%, and the banks are sitting on many many properties with NPL's.

 

From 2020

https://thailand.un.org/en/86380-thailand-economic-focus-q1-household-debt-80-gdp-highest-4-years

 

increased to: in 2022

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/household-debt--of-nominal-gdp

 

Key information about Thailand Household Debt: % of GDP

• Thailand household debt accounted for 88.2 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Jun 2022, compared with the ratio of 89.2 % in the previous quarter.
• Thailand household debt to GDP ratio is updated quarterly, available from Mar 2003 to Jun 2022.
• The data reached an all-time high of 90.8 % in Mar 2021 and a record low of 40.6 % in Mar 2003.

 

https://www.exus.co.uk/blog/the-npl-situation-in-thailand-in-2022 

Edited November 23, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet Thailands residents have a personal household debt as high as 80%, and the banks are sitting on many many properties with NPL's.

 

From 2020

https://thailand.un.org/en/86380-thailand-economic-focus-q1-household-debt-80-gdp-highest-4-years

 

increased to: in 2022

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/household-debt--of-nominal-gdp

 

Key information about Thailand Household Debt: % of GDP

• Thailand household debt accounted for 88.2 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Jun 2022, compared with the ratio of 89.2 % in the previous quarter.
• Thailand household debt to GDP ratio is updated quarterly, available from Mar 2003 to Jun 2022.
• The data reached an all-time high of 90.8 % in Mar 2021 and a record low of 40.6 % in Mar 2003.

 

https://www.exus.co.uk/blog/the-npl-situation-in-thailand-in-2022 

I'm talking about government debt, government borrowings, NOT consumer debt ,which is something totally different. Thailand government debt is circa 60% of GDP, UK  government debt is over 105% of GDP and the difference in GDP is around six times larger.

[ThailandRyan]

22 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I'm talking about government debt, government borrowings, NOT consumer debt ,which is something totally different. Thailand government debt is circa 60% of GDP, UK  government debt is over 105% of GDP and the difference in GDP is around six times larger.

However,

 

The debts incurred in the UK covered many people in the country with providing payments of some sort as loans, covering medical and etc....whereas Thailand's debt is debt incurred not by covering the populace as in the UK, at least that's my point.  Maybe I am wrong, but buying submarines, other toys and a failed security net for it's people like the UK, US and other countries have is a reason why the debts are higher elsewhere, again my view.

[nigelforbes]

47 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

However,

 

The debts incurred in the UK covered many people in the country with providing payments of some sort as loans, covering medical and etc....whereas Thailand's debt is debt incurred not by covering the populace as in the UK, at least that's my point.  Maybe I am wrong, but buying submarines, other toys and a failed security net for it's people like the UK, US and other countries have is a reason why the debts are higher elsewhere, again my view.

The subject was the levels of government debt, not whether the debt was useful or appropriate, time to revert is the discussion.

[ThailandRyan]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He said that the economic stimulus packages being considered by Finance Ministry, for January 1st to February 15th, such as “Shop Dee Mee Kuen” or “Shop Chuay Chart”, are minor projects aimed at increasing the purchasing power of consumers.

 

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

The subject was the levels of government debt, not whether the debt was useful or appropriate, time to revert is the discussion.

So this would not be seen as a debt then in your eyes which Thailand will be incurring, and instead will actually be seen as an increase for the GDP.  I wonder sometimes if the total amount stated as GDP is truly just the extra money brought in or includes the indebtedness the country added in.  Say I spent 500K Thb, and the Country through in the other 50% of 500K Thb, yet they claim they made 1 Mthb, you can not have it both ways, and indebtedness includes those that earn and spend money in the country as far as businesses go.

[hotchilli]

Tourism is the saviour of the nation yet is only supposed to be 15% of GDP..

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

Tourism is the saviour of the nation yet is only supposed to be 15% of GDP..

I just watched a video where they say it is only 12% of GDP, but then we hear all kinds of numbers up to 23%, so which is it, and then you have the soft underbelly where income is absorbed and earned by the unregistered and never reported.  Makes one wonder.

[hotchilli]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I just watched a video where they say it is only 12% of GDP, but then we hear all kinds of numbers up to 23%, so which is it, and then you have the soft underbelly where income is absorbed and earned by the unregistered and never reported.  Makes one wonder.

Tourism is 85% and the remaining 15% is a grey area...

[kinyara]

37 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I just watched a video where they say it is only 12% of GDP, but then we hear all kinds of numbers up to 23%, so which is it, and then you have the soft underbelly where income is absorbed and earned by the unregistered and never reported.  Makes one wonder.

The lower figure is the direct contribution to GDP by the money spent in the tourism industry, the higher figure includes the indirect contribution to GDP or the multiplier effect of the direct funds, ie employment etc. 

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

 

So this would not be seen as a debt then in your eyes which Thailand will be incurring, and instead will actually be seen as an increase for the GDP.  I wonder sometimes if the total amount stated as GDP is truly just the extra money brought in or includes the indebtedness the country added in.  Say I spent 500K Thb, and the Country through in the other 50% of 500K Thb, yet they claim they made 1 Mthb, you can not have it both ways, and indebtedness includes those that earn and spend money in the country as far as businesses go.

There several different ways to calculate GDP, the sum of everything purchased or the sum of everything that is sold, niether includes consumer debt levels.

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

There several different ways to calculate GDP, the sum of everything purchased or the sum of everything that is sold, niether includes consumer debt levels.

Yet debt incurred by the populace spills over to tge banks etc...let's agree to disagree. It is a shell game.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet debt incurred by the populace spills over to tge banks etc...let's agree to disagree. It is a shell game.

No, let's instead agree that consumer debt is not part of GDP, it isn't. It's private debt and no matter how you try to argue otherwise, it never will be.

[ThailandRyan]

16 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

No, let's instead agree that consumer debt is not part of GDP, it isn't. It's private debt and no matter how you try to argue otherwise, it never will be.

Try again to understand the connection your missing it. If I go onto personal debt by spending it on my holiday in Thailand, hotel, food etc...it is part of the GDP.

 

Does GDP include consumer spending?

 

 

Consumer spending is a key component of quarterly gross domestic product. BEA's monthly consumer spending statistics also are closely watched as early gauges of the economy's strength.6 Sept 2018

https://www.bea.gov › learning-center

Consumer Spending | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Try again to understand the connection your missing it. If I go onto personal debt by spending it on my holiday in Thailand, hotel, food etc...it is part of the GDP.

 

Does GDP include consumer spending?

 

 

Consumer spending is a key component of quarterly gross domestic product. BEA's monthly consumer spending statistics also are closely watched as early gauges of the economy's strength.6 Sept 2018

https://www.bea.gov › learning-center

Consumer Spending | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

 

 

You're too funny by far, consumer spending is not consumer debt, give it up will you!

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, nigelforbes said:

You're too funny by far, consumer spending is not consumer debt, give it up will you!

If I go into debt because I spent money on a  credit card which assisted the GDP and I accrued debt, you bet my debt was used to boost tge gdp, or better yet the banks money did...as I said I will agree to disagree with you, we could go all day on this.

[nigelforbes]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

If I go into debt because I spent money on a  credit card which assisted the GDP and I accrued debt, you bet my debt was used to boost tge gdp, or better yet the banks money did...as I said I will agree to disagree with you, we could go all day on this.

If you spend money on your credit card that's called consumer spending, which is a part of the GDP calculation.

 

Now comes the next part, which is separate from the previous part.

 

You decide not to repay your credit card loan or perhaps you are unable to, that called consumer debt. The two halves are totally separate and different things. The GDP calculation doesn't care where your money came from to make the purchase whether you earned it, borrowed it stole it or printed the money yourself, the fact is you made a purchase, that's where the GDP calculation ends. This is the end of the story, there is no alternate ending, no sequel and there is no other version, as much as you must be desperately hoping by this time that's there's some sort of link that can be made....there isn't, all hope is lost. Goodbye.

[huangnon]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I just watched a video where they say it is only 12% of GDP, but then we hear all kinds of numbers up to 23%, so which is it, and then you have the soft underbelly where income is absorbed and earned by the unregistered and never reported.  Makes one wonder.

I think the actual tourism GDP has been consistently mooted at only 12% for a few years now.

 

But it employs a huge number of people here.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

If you spend money on your credit card that's called consumer spending, which is a part of the GDP calculation.

 

Now comes the next part, which is separate from the previous part.

 

You decide not to repay your credit card loan or perhaps you are unable to, that called consumer debt. The two halves are totally separate and different things. The GDP calculation doesn't care where your money came from to make the purchase whether you earned it, borrowed it stole it or printed the money yourself, the fact is you made a purchase, that's where the GDP calculation ends. This is the end of the story, there is no alternate ending, no sequel and there is no other version, as much as you must be desperately hoping by this time that's there's some sort of link that can be made....there isn't, all hope is lost. Goodbye.

And they are connected...end if discussion...ttfn

[nigelforbes]

31 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

And they are connected...end if discussion...ttfn

Unlike your brain which is clearly not!