China records first population decline in 60 years

[Scott]

 

Hong Kong CNN  — 

China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy.

The population fell in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced during a Tuesday briefing on annual data.

Analysts said the decline was the first since 1961 during the great famine triggered by former leader Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/economy/china-population-decline-sixty-years-intl-hnk/index.html

[Monkeyrobot]

How many died from Covid .

[Scott]

5 hours ago, Monkeyrobot said:

How many died from Covid .

That is a number that is subject to more speculation than accuracy.  China has been less than transparent in releasing data.  According to the WHO numbers, it was 5,200++.  Since Dec., China has reported that around 60,000 people have died from Covid.   It's pretty clear that whatever numbers are reported, they are probably pretty far from the actual numbers. 

As far as the population decline, I doubt it has much to do with Covid deaths, but Covid no doubt has played a role in the decline.  It's difficult to know how many families decided against having children with Covid circulating.  It's hard to predict how many people never married or even met to start a family because of the lock downs that kept people separated. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/14/china/china-covid-deaths-intl/index.html

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

 

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Scott said:

That is a number that is subject to more speculation than accuracy.  China has been less than transparent in releasing data.  According to the WHO numbers, it was 5,200++.  Since Dec., China has reported that around 60,000 people have died from Covid.   It's pretty clear that whatever numbers are reported, they are probably pretty far from the actual numbers. 

As far as the population decline, I doubt it has much to do with Covid deaths, but Covid no doubt has played a role in the decline.  It's difficult to know how many families decided against having children with Covid circulating.  It's hard to predict how many people never married or even met to start a family because of the lock downs that kept people separated. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/14/china/china-covid-deaths-intl/index.html

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

 

Actually, it's probably the case that China's population has already been shrinking:

Leaked Data Show China’s Population Is Shrinking Fast

Because China has always massaged its demographic figures and cracked down on anyone who challenges the official line, there are endless debates about the true size and growth trajectory of the country's population. But a recent, large-scale data breach offers some sorely needed clarity.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07

[vandeventer]

How much trouble is China in?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epSbK11agBs

 

[thaibeachlovers]

I get the impression that China is educating women better than before. Whenever women get educated the birth rate tends to fall.

One only needs to look at Japan where they have a falling birth rate, declining marriage rate etc.

file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/leader0002.pdf

Japanese women are strongly
inclined to reject prospective marriage
partners without equal or higher levels
of education, and as they acquire
advanced educations, it becomes
harder for them to find a suitable
partner.

 

Happened long ago in Singapore where the government was running campaigns to try and get educated women to have babies.

https://www.aware.org.sg/2010/11/the-birth-of-awarepart-one/

An accompanying trend of reduced birth rate was that women with higher education were having a smaller number of children than women with lower education levels.

[bangon04]

now if India and Africa could just learn a lesson from this, there might be a very slim chance of saving this planet. (but not holdng my breath)

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, bangon04 said:

now if India and Africa could just learn a lesson from this, there might be a very slim chance of saving this planet. (but not holdng my breath)

It's really not that simple. You have to take into account how much the average consumption of those people are vs. the average consumption in developed economies. And then there's the question of how much the  wealthy contribute to environmental degradation:

Carbon emissions of richest 1 percent more than double the emissions of the poorest half of humanity

https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity

 

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, bangon04 said:

now if India and Africa could just learn a lesson from this, there might be a very slim chance of saving this planet. (but not holdng my breath)

Both of those regions have large numbers of people living in rural areas where tradition rules, and women are not well educated. I see no improvement in decreasing birth rates in my lifetime happening.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 1/18/2023 at 9:57 PM, Monkeyrobot said:

How many died from Covid .

China - Historical Population Growth Rate Data
Year	Population Growth Rate	Growth Rate
2023	1,425,671,352	-0.02%
2022	1,425,887,337	0.00%
2021	1,425,893,465	0.07%
2020	1,424,929,781	0.22%
2019	1,421,864,031	0.34%
2018	1,417,069,468	0.48%

 

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/population-growth-rate

 

I would speculate 0.25% (or more) of the population, so, at least, 3.5 million. (I base my assumptions on the still positive growth rates in 2019 and 2020.

Edited January 19, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[ExpatOilWorker]

China is in for the mother of a housing collapse when population really start to decline in 10-20 years time.