Russia’s oil exports are back to pre-war levels

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

I agree with 300. There still are buyers who don't give a hoot. Even if Russia has to dump its oil it needs people to buy it. I would like to know what the deep discount is. Sorry, I am a bit too lazy to look up the price. But even if the discount is around the 50-60$ a barrel that is still a nice income for those MOFOS.

 

 

Given that Russian oil is camparatively expensive to produce, not really.

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

I agree with 300. There still are buyers who don't give a hoot. Even if Russia has to dump its oil it needs people to buy it. I would like to know what the deep discount is. Sorry, I am a bit too lazy to look up the price. But even if the discount is around the 50-60$ a barrel that is still a nice income for those MOFOS.

It's around $40 to $50.

 

The cost of producing a single barrel of Brent crude oil came in at around $42 for Russian onshore projects, and $44 for offshore projects, IHS Markit estimated. That was more than twice the $17 per barrel production costs in Saudi Arabia — the cheapest in the world.

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/12/russian-oil-production-most-expensive-world-saudi-aramco-ipo-a68132

[Eric Loh]

6 minutes ago, driver52 said:

so what, sure ALL governments print FIAT, but Russias is backed by gold now.......what's yours backed by? oh yeah, guns and the threat of nukes.....

Russia has to backed the ruble with gold demonstrate that the sanctions are having an effect on their economy. Their central bank has to fixed the value of the ruble to gold because of the imposed sanctions that lead to the ruble’s value plummeting crushing their economy. 

[Pouatchee]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Given that Russian oil is camparatively expensive to produce, not really.

They will probably resort to slave labor for production. With all the draft dodgers it shouldn't be difficult to fill the positions once they start to prosecute them. ????????

[Eric Loh]

21 minutes ago, driver52 said:

whereas the EU and the US economies rely on the printing press and monetizing debt in a graph that appears to be going parabolic, that's working well innit? ????

Not a moral issue. US can continue to print and monetized debts as long as the dollar stay strong and demanded. 

[Kwasaki]

48 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

What matters is revenue not production and export levels. Low discounted prices affect revenue.
 

Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of the country's economy, fell 43% year on year in March, while a quarterly profit-based tax was all that held revenues back from a monthly drop, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.

 

Moscow relies on energy revenue, last year around 11.6 trillion roubles ($146 billion), to fund government spending, and has been forced to sell foreign reserves to cover a deficit stretched by the cost of its military operation in Ukraine.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-march-energy-income-drops-43-yy-quarterly-tax-supports-monthly-revenue-2023-04-05/

All I'm trying to say is any money they make from oil and Russia being reported as selling oil up to the pre-war levels is not good.

[Kwasaki]

52 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But the fact that they are making a lot less on that oil than they otherwise would, thanks to sanctions, is good, isn't it?

No because they could still produce more and sell more and instead of a £ and say get 50p instead of nowt is not good. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

All I'm trying to say is any money they make from oil and Russia being reported as selling oil up to the pre-war levels is not good.

Which is not the same thing as saying that "Sanctions never work."

[Kwasaki]

55 minutes ago, driver52 said:

not good for who exactly???

War effort in Ukraine would be my first guess. 

[placeholder]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

No because they could still produce more and sell more and instead of a £ and say get 50p instead of nowt is not good. 

It's not nearly that simple. First off, does Russia have the capacity to ship enough oil to make up for the difference? Can their petroleum industry infrastructure stand the strain of increasing enough capacity? Is there a limit to how much capacity its OPEC fellow members will allow Russia to ship before lowering their own prices?

[Kwasaki]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Which is not the same thing as saying that "Sanctions never work."

Well I don't see sanctions working only helping a bit in situations but how it's defined on how sanctions work doesn't look good if Russia's pre-war levels are the same. 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Well I don't see sanctions working only helping a bit in situations but how it's defined on how sanctions work doesn't look good if Russia's pre-war levels are the same. 

Really. Is that how economic benefits and harms are determined? Not by income but by volume? Really? And what don't you understand about the fact that russia is being squeezed from 2 sides. The costliness of extracting its oil and the lower price it gets paid.

[Kwasaki]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's not nearly that simple. First off, does Russia have the capacity to ship enough oil to make up for the difference? Can their petroleum industry infrastructure stand the strain of increasing enough capacity? Is there a limit to how much capacity its OPEC fellow members will allow Russia to ship before lowering their own prices?

The simple thing is as the thread title reports what is done about it I have no idea.

[Kwasaki]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really. Is that how economic benefits and harms are determined? Not by income but by volume? Really? And what don't you understand about the fact that russia is being squeezed from 2 sides. The costliness of extracting its oil and the lower price it gets paid.

Your getting a bit weird over this take your emotions out on someone else.

Stop and think, what about 7-11. ????

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

The simple thing is as the thread title reports what is done about it I have no idea.

So you base your arguments on headlines?

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Your getting a bit weird over this take your emotions out on someone else.

Stop and think, what about 7-11. ????

When someone tries to make it personal, that's a pretty sure indicator that they've got nothing.

[ozimoron]

57 minutes ago, driver52 said:

so what, sure ALL governments print FIAT, but Russias is backed by gold now.......what's yours backed by? oh yeah, guns and the threat of nukes.....

Russia’s Fake Gold Standard

It’s unfortunate that markets were somewhat fooled

 

https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/russias-fake-gold-standard-606da639033d

 

Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard – but it’s unlikely to last

 

https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on-a-gold-standard-but-its-unlikely-to-last-180632

[placeholder]

24 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Russia’s Fake Gold Standard

It’s unfortunate that markets were somewhat fooled

 

https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/russias-fake-gold-standard-606da639033d

 

Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard – but it’s unlikely to last

 

https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on-a-gold-standard-but-its-unlikely-to-last-180632

Just being able to sell gold for rubles isn't enough. It's not really a gold standard unless you can also buy gold with rubles.

[Kwasaki]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

When someone tries to make it personal, that's a pretty sure indicator that they've got nothing.

So stop doing it then. 

So personally I have made it clear enough that any money that Russia makes is not good and shows sanctions only help a bit.

That's my opinion why not give your opinion without asking questions of others. 

 

I'm just off to 7-11.

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

So stop doing it then. 

So personally I have made it clear enough that any money that Russia makes is not good and shows sanctions only help a bit.

That's my opinion why not give your opinion without asking questions of others. 

 

I'm just off to 7-11.

And the evidence shows it's a very faulty opinion. Which, of course, you are entitled to. But not entitled to expecting no refutation.

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Just being able to sell gold for rubles isn't enough. It's not really a gold standard unless you can also buy gold with rubles.

Yeah, I saw that when I read some articles. I initially assumed (foolish I know) that the poster I replied to wasn't trying to deceive.

 

Here's another article worth readign

 

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/russias-economic-self-destruction-and-its-conseuqences

[gearbox]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

What is so hard to understand about the fact that they have to sell it at a steep discount. And Russian oil is one of the most expensive to produce. Onshore oil was estimated to cost $42 per barrel, offshore $44 per barrel.

 

Where did you get these numbers from? 44$ per barrel would be for shale extraction, even that would be expensive.

According to this post the cost for Rosneft is around $5 per barrel.

[KhunLA]

3 hours ago, 300sd said:

Sanctions never work. 

Depends why you think the sanctions were put in place to begin with.

 

To force RU to withdraw from UA ? ...

... that's funny

 

Or to boost profits of the non-RU fossil fuel industry ?

... since the only result of the sections, I'd say they were extremely successful.

[Eric Loh]

32 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Where did you get these numbers from? 44$ per barrel would be for shale extraction, even that would be expensive.

According to this post the cost for Rosneft is around $5 per barrel.

I don’t dispute the approx $44 per barrel. Public domain information has that covered. I don’t know where your $5 per barrel source but is your assumption based on the massive tax relief that Russian government offer to oil companies to encourage production. Most recently, a trillion ruble tax break was given to Rosneft. 

[gearbox]

32 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I don’t dispute the approx $44 per barrel. Public domain information has that covered. I don’t know where your $5 per barrel source but is your assumption based on the massive tax relief that Russian government offer to oil companies to encourage production. Most recently, a trillion ruble tax break was given to Rosneft. 

https://www.ft.com/content/87196fa8-6289-4f9c-9353-cdf18d5fabc8

 

These estimates were nearly 2 years ago before the war in Ukraine.

 

Also previous post alleged that the Saudi cost per barrel is $17, which is way off the mark. The estimates are $3-5 per barrel.

Edited April 15, 2023 by gearbox