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Trump says he's been indicted in classified docs probe


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4 hours ago, LosLobo said:

Although Jack Smith is seeking a 'speed trial' and Florida has a 'rocket docket' policy,  I would suggest Judge Cannon based on her past performance, may grant Trump a stay until at least the GOP Primaries. next year.

 

Then Trump, as it is DOJ policy not to prosecute candidates during elections, he may get to election day where he thinks he may find a way to run out the clock.

A Trump-Appointed Judge Who Showed Him Favor Gets the Documents Case
The surprise assignment of Judge Aileen Cannon could be a setback for prosecutors as they unveiled a sweeping classified files indictment.

 

Criminal defendants routinely claim that prosecutors threatened witnesses and committed other misconduct, and they rarely succeed. But if Judge Cannon entertains those claims more deferentially than trial judges normally do, Mr. Smith and his team could effectively go on trial before Mr. Trump.

 

“Pretrial litigation over the conduct of prosecutors is a good one for gumming things up and fits with Trump’s message, which is going to be out of control, politically motivated prosecutors,’” Mr. Buell said. “So we will see plenty of that.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html

 

No paywall: https://archive.is/WGngA

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Just to expound on the NY Times article I posted above, the Clerk of the Southern District Court said that there are 15 active judges and each case is assigned randomly regardless if a judge was involved in a prior related case.

 

So the chance that Judge Cannon would get the Trump case twice would be 1 in 15 x 1 in 15 or 1 in 225. 

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3 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Just to expound on the NY Times article I posted above, the Clerk of the Southern District Court said that there are 15 active judges and each case is assigned randomly regardless if a judge was involved in a prior related case.

 

So the chance that Judge Cannon would get the Trump case twice would be 1 in 15 x 1 in 15 or 1 in 225. 

Starting now, the chance is only 1 in 15. The past outcome has no bearing on the second outcome. If someone flips a coin once and it comes out heads, does that mean that the next time they flip it the odds are only 1 in 4 that it will come out heads? Now if before the coins were ever flipped, and they had to predict the outcomes, then the odds would have been 1 in 4 that heads would have come up twice in a row.

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10 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Just to expound on the NY Times article I posted above, the Clerk of the Southern District Court said that there are 15 active judges and each case is assigned randomly regardless if a judge was involved in a prior related case.

 

So the chance that Judge Cannon would get the Trump case twice would be 1 in 15 x 1 in 15 or 1 in 225. 

But after having been assigned the first one the chance of being assigned the second one is 1 in 15.

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59 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

A Trump-Appointed Judge Who Showed Him Favor Gets the Documents Case
The surprise assignment of Judge Aileen Cannon could be a setback for prosecutors as they unveiled a sweeping classified files indictment.

 

Criminal defendants routinely claim that prosecutors threatened witnesses and committed other misconduct, and they rarely succeed. But if Judge Cannon entertains those claims more deferentially than trial judges normally do, Mr. Smith and his team could effectively go on trial before Mr. Trump.

 

“Pretrial litigation over the conduct of prosecutors is a good one for gumming things up and fits with Trump’s message, which is going to be out of control, politically motivated prosecutors,’” Mr. Buell said. “So we will see plenty of that.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html

 

No paywall: https://archive.is/WGngA

Let's see if the spanking she got from the Appeals Court panel will have had a chastening effect.

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7 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

It is quite possible that SC Smith could charge trump with Sedition for trump's fomenting of the 6 Jan 2021 terrorist attack against the US Capitol and the attempt to overthrow US democracy.

 

Sedition is a capital offense that can carry the death penalty.

 

10 U.S. Code § 894 - Art. 94. Mutiny or sedition

The ole "it's quite possible" routine. Many things are quite possible.

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8 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

It is quite possible that SC Smith could charge trump with Sedition for trump's fomenting of the 6 Jan 2021 terrorist attack against the US Capitol and the attempt to overthrow US democracy.

 

Sedition is a capital offense that can carry the death penalty.

 

10 U.S. Code § 894 - Art. 94. Mutiny or sedition

I'm expecting seditious conspiracy. There's no way a dozen others get jailed for that crime and he get away with it.

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15 minutes ago, billd766 said:

What saddens me is that there are posters, even here on ANN, that when a direct link is quoted from Trump, they cannot or will not accept as a fact that it did come from Trump.

 

They will deny, prevaricate, deflect, twist the post in every possible way they can, yet still not accept the truth.

Bit of a cult-like thing. 

As such applies to many different themes of life and thought. 

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A post with a video from an unapproved social media source and the replies have been removed:


18. Social media content is acceptable in most forums. However in factual areas such as but not limited to news, current affairs and health topics, social media cannot be used unless it is from a credible news media source or a government agency, and must include a link to the original source. In some circumstances a moderator may relax this rule and this will be determined on a case by case basis. If this rule is relaxed a moderator will post a public notice explaining the limit and scope of the relaxation.

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3 hours ago, stevenl said:

But after having been assigned the first one the chance of being assigned the second one is 1 in 15.

From the linked NY Times story:

 

Still, the odds of an indictment being randomly assigned to Judge Cannon were low. There are 15 active Federal District Court judges in South Florida, along with 11 on senior status who are still assigned to hear cases but at a reduced workload‌. (Clerk) Ms. Noble did not immediately respond to an email seeking clarification of what happened.

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2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Let's see if the spanking she got from the Appeals Court panel will have had a chastening effect.

From the linked NY Times article:

 

Still, “out-of-left-field rulings could be coming here,” he said, adding, “When you have classified documents, there is abundant opportunities to slow this down, and if they’ve got a judge who is willing to go along with slowing this down, it becomes very hard to predict when this will go to trial.”

 

To be sure, there is no guarantee that Judge Cannon will resume the pattern she exhibited last fall. It remains to be seen whether she will respond to the reputational harm it brought her by using a second turn in the spotlight to rule in a more straightforward fashion.

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3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Starting now, the chance is only 1 in 15. The past outcome has no bearing on the second outcome. If someone flips a coin once and it comes out heads, does that mean that the next time they flip it the odds are only 1 in 4 that it will come out heads? Now if before the coins were ever flipped, and they had to predict the outcomes, then the odds would have been 1 in 4 that heads would have come up twice in a row.

The chance that she got both Trump cases from the article:

 

Still, the odds of an indictment being randomly assigned to Judge Cannon were low. There are 15 active Federal District Court judges in South Florida, along with 11 on senior status who are still assigned to hear cases but at a reduced workload‌. Ms. Noble did not immediately respond to an email seeking clarification of what happened.

 

So she won 2 separate 1 in 15 random judge rump case assignments. The NYTimes article is questioning maybe they weren't so random.

 

Edited by jerrymahoney
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A random sample of 2 is not statistically meaningful in any way to draw any conclusions even if the odds are not high.

 

It's a high profile case and if there'll be jail sentences then Trump will 100% guaranteed appeal this thing all way to the Supreme Court. All this judge can do is stall but she'll be walking on thin ice if it's not perfectly justified.

 

I don't expect it to be over very quickly.

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20 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

I don't expect it to be over very quickly.

Unfortunately you are perfectly correct.

If the Egomaniac had the real USA's interests at heart he would withdraw his nomination for president now but that will never happen with him!

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