Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

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Israel’s Army Is Ready to Invade Gaza. Its Divided Government May Not Be.
In the 20 days since Hamas attacked, Israel’s Air Force has pounded Gaza and its troops have gotten into position. But its leaders disagree about what to do next.

https://archive.ph/targH

As the article goes on to note, the Israeli govt doesn't seem to have a clear plan about what it's going to do in the event that it does triumph on the battlefield

[Yellowtail]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Israel’s Army Is Ready to Invade Gaza. Its Divided Government May Not Be.
In the 20 days since Hamas attacked, Israel’s Air Force has pounded Gaza and its troops have gotten into position. But its leaders disagree about what to do next.

https://archive.ph/targH

As the article goes on to note, the Israeli govt doesn't seem to have a clear plan about what it's going to do in the event that it does triumph on the battlefield

Does this surprise you?

 

 

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Did you mean "opposed" by some israeli politicians? I don't know of any that support that solution.

 

Such a solution would likely be opposed by israel as they will might end up with a majority Palestinian population.

The Two State solution has been dead for a long time as it would only work with a complete israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

 

Yeah, but you not knowing stuff isn't very surprising.

 

In your mind, Israelis might have some hive-mind, and Israeli politics have only one facet - reality is different. The one-state solution is not a popular one for many obvious reasons - some of them evident if looking at Israel's neighbor to the North, for example. Also. requiring Israel and Israelis to commit suicide seems a bit contrived even for your nonsense posts. Do tell about the many Palestinian politicians who are in favor for this. how much traction they represent, how they envisage such a unified state, and how realistic their takes are. You won't because you can't.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm surprise that anyone doesn't know that israel has been accused of being an apartheid state, but I guess it depends on which media one sees. I doubt anyone only watching CNN or Fox will get both sides of the problem.

 

Being 'accused' of something is not quite it. You 'accuse' Israel, and the West of multiple sins on a daily basis. Doesn't mean a whole lot.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't see much "modern civilization" in caging over 2 million people, oppressing them for 30 years, and when they rebel against their oppressors denying water, food, fuel and medical supplies while bombing them to bits.

 

That, IMO, is what they used to do in the middle ages and before.

A thousand years of civilization, and we haven't advanced much at all, except in being able to kill more people with better weapons.

 

Was the blockade always in place? Does it not have something to do with Hamas?

There was nothing preventing the Hamas from demonstrating it's focus was on developing the Gaza Strip for the benefit of the Palestinian people, thus negating the justification for the blockade. You seem to believe that the only possible path was, and is, violence.

[Morch]

49 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Israel’s Army Is Ready to Invade Gaza. Its Divided Government May Not Be.
In the 20 days since Hamas attacked, Israel’s Air Force has pounded Gaza and its troops have gotten into position. But its leaders disagree about what to do next.

https://archive.ph/targH

As the article goes on to note, the Israeli govt doesn't seem to have a clear plan about what it's going to do in the event that it does triumph on the battlefield

 

There are differing views among Israeli leadership and general public with regard to Israel's response, it's prospects, how it related to the hostage situation and what come next. All of that is in addition to the already deepening political divide. Doesn't help Israel being headed by a (smarter) version of Trump, who's more interested in his own political survival than anything else.

 

That said, here's a rather detailed take on some of what's being talked about:

 

Here's an outline of a war plan to change the situation in Gaza

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sysmhx1fp

[placeholder]

45 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Does this surprise you?

 

 

It doesn't surprise me. But it might come as a surprise to some of the gung-ho members who are posting in this forum.

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

There are differing views among Israeli leadership and general public with regard to Israel's response, it's prospects, how it related to the hostage situation and what come next. All of that is in addition to the already deepening political divide. Doesn't help Israel being headed by a (smarter) version of Trump, who's more interested in his own political survival than anything else.

 

That said, here's a rather detailed take on some of what's being talked about:

 

Here's an outline of a war plan to change the situation in Gaza

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sysmhx1fp

It's quite aspirational.

[Jingthing]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's quite aspirational.

Would you prefer weak tea?

[Morch]

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's quite aspirational.

 

Perhaps so. But it gives some insight as to how things are considered and seen. A step up from 'have no plan', or the annexation/expulsion/mass extermination supposed 'plan' claims peppering these topics.

 

IMO, even if Israel had a great plan (which it does not), the chances of reality unfolding quite as 'planned' are slim. Any which way this could go pear shaped. Then again, I don't think that there, realistically speaking, good and viable options to deal with the situation.

 

It's a mess.

[Nick Carter icp]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Israel’s Army Is Ready to Invade Gaza. Its Divided Government May Not Be.
In the 20 days since Hamas attacked, Israel’s Air Force has pounded Gaza and its troops have gotten into position. But its leaders disagree about what to do next.

https://archive.ph/targH

As the article goes on to note, the Israeli govt doesn't seem to have a clear plan about what it's going to do in the event that it does triumph on the battlefield

 

  Yeah, but if you put ten Jews in a room, you will get 11 different opinions  

[Jingthing]

14 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

  Yeah, but if you put ten Jews in a room, you will get 11 different opinions  

So you've met my Aunt Gladys.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

It doesn't surprise me. But it might come as a surprise to some of the gung-ho members who are posting in this forum.

Why do you think it would surprise them? 

[placnx]

On 10/26/2023 at 5:59 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

While it's not guaranteed that they would do so, even if they did, will they want to eliminate Hamas ( or it's successor ), as that would give israel unfettered ability to do whatever it likes in illegally occupied Palestine?

Saudi Arabia and others have long been opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood from which Hamas sprung. So it's likely that they don't want an Hamas offspring.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

What detail are needed to want Israel to live in peace and harmony with Palestine? 

The Arab 10-Point plan was Rejected by the PLO because they wanted to continue fighting to eradicate Isarel. The Trump two-state plan as well as the numerous Israeli two-state plans have all been rejected for the same reasons.  

I single-state plan with a large percentage of Palestinian population wanting to kill all the Jews will not work. 

The Gaza Strip has not been occupied by Israel for 15-20 years.

Most everyone but the Palestinians (or a large majority of them) wants a two-state solution. 

Please provide a reliable link concerning PLO rejection of the Saudi peace proposal.

 

The Palestinians would definitely like a two state solution if the horrific settlers would be sent back to Israel and be banned from the Haram al-Sharif. No problem for settlers who have no animus to remain in the West Bank subject to local law. 

 

Since Israel effectively controls all access to Gaza, even through Egypt, Gaza is called the world's largest open air prison. It is why Israel will (if the US comes to its senses) hopefully be held fully to account for the ongoing collective punishment on over 2 million largely innocent people.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, Morch said:

 

 

The Arab Peace Initiative was actually accepted (under some political duress) by the PA. Hamas was evasive, but essentially rejected it. Doesn't matter much what the PA says if they cannot come to terms with the Hamas or garner enough support to make it irrelevant. Israel rejected the proposal.

 

There weren't 'numerous' Israeli two-state solutions made, but it is true that they were rejected, or not responded to. One could argue that the Israeli governments in question could not have delivered, but that cuts both ways.

 

A single state is a none-starter to anyone who looks over the fence to Lebanon, or further afield, Iraq. Doesn't work in the ME. People aren't quite 'there' yet to allow for this to happen.

 

And no, I do not think most Israelis actually support a two-state solution. There was never a clear majority for this (as far as I recall), and support in the notion eroded over time. The Hamas raid didn't do this any favors.

To your last point, up to now, Israelis have disregarded the situation of the Palestinians, so settlement activity and apartheid could continue, until the Palestinians disappeared, perhaps? Now Hamas has gotten the attention of not only Israelis, but the world. Perhaps the consensus will arrive at a viable two state solution sooner rather than later.

[placnx]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Did you mean "opposed" by some israeli politicians? I don't know of any that support that solution.

 

Such a solution would likely be opposed by israel as they will might end up with a majority Palestinian population.

The Two State solution has been dead for a long time as it would only work with a complete israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

Daniel Levy certainly thinks that a two state solution is possible, but then he is not one of those craven ones called "politicians".

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Israel is not an apartheid state in regards to Israeli citizens within it's borders.

The Palestinian west bank is specific situation. Obviously the Israeli west bank settlements are an occupation.

To Hamas all of Israel is an occupation, so Israel has no choice now but to go to war.

You can read the Amnesty report to find out why Israel proper is also judged to be practicing apartheid against its Arab citizens.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/

There are reports on housing discrimination, for example, in various newspaper reports. If you want to know about this, try googling.

[Jingthing]

11 minutes ago, placnx said:

You can read the Amnesty report to find out why Israel proper is also judged to be practicing apartheid against its Arab citizens.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/

There are reports on housing discrimination, for example, in various newspaper reports. If you want to know about this, try googling.

Housing discrimination doesn't mean Israel is an apartheid state. Such issues exist in many countries. You're being absurd.

Buf I get it  You cling to buzzwords to demonize Israel.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

23 minutes ago, placnx said:

To your last point, up to now, Israelis have disregarded the situation of the Palestinians, so settlement activity and apartheid could continue, until the Palestinians disappeared, perhaps? Now Hamas has gotten the attention of not only Israelis, but the world. Perhaps the consensus will arrive at a viable two state solution sooner rather than later.

Almost definitely not. Hamas killed any hope of that with their pogrom.

[placnx]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Housing discrimination doesn't mean Israek is an apartheid state. Such issues exist in many cou countries. You're being absurd.

Buf I get it  You cling to buzzwords to demonize Israel.

Before saying I'm being absurd, please read the Amnesty report. The housing discrimination is pervasive and state policy rather than lower level discrimination such as 'red lining' in the US. I can't put links from Haaretz etc since I'm away from home now.

[placnx]

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Almost definitely not. Hamas killed any hope of that with their pogrom.

Hope springs eternal.

[Jingthing]

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Housing discrimination doesn't mean Israel is an apartheid state. Such issues exist in many countries. You're being absurd.

Buf I get it  You cling to buzzwords to demonize Israel.

You can post all the links you want 

It doesn’t change the fact that Israeli citizens in Israeli borders are not living under apartheid. The discrimination that they do face does not rise to the level where that demonizing label is justified. 

[deejai33]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Did you mean "opposed" by some israeli politicians? I don't know of any that support that solution.

 

Such a solution would likely be opposed by israel as they will might end up with a majority Palestinian population.

The Two State solution has been dead for a long time as it would only work with a complete israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

 

I didn't mean opposed.  Articles refer to left-wing israelis being interested at different points in the conflict in a one-state solution.  Probably as you say, not too popular.

 

I some googling, and found this account of one state-two state-federation options.  It by a jewish feminist group.  Bit of diversity helps.

 

https://www.heyalma.com/israel-guide/what-are-the-proposed-solutions-to-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

 

It states that a 2019 poll shows 33% of Israelis support a 2-state option. 19% a one-state and 9% a federation.  Leaving 40% don't know, which is worrying. Don't they have a view ?

 

Anyway, the article lists the issues.  Your list are the main items. 

 

I'm still puzzled about how Israeli politicians plan to allow Palestians self-direction, political rights and a viable future.   

 

A zero-state solution for palestinians where they lack land and voting rights and are ruled over by Israelis isn't going to end conflict.

 

 

 

[Hanaguma]

Also need to think of what to do once Gaza is pacified, all the Hamas terror infrastructure is destroyed, and all Hamas terrorists (and their supporters) are at room temperature.

 

There will need to be a long term plan on how to wean Palestinians from their Jew hatred.  As many have said, as much as half of the Gaza population has been born since Hamas took over. They have known only Hamas in power, they use horrible anti-Semitic curriculum in schools, they watch grotesque anti-Semitic cartoons and children's tv programming, etc.  No wonder they excitedly call home (using murdered Jewish peoples' cell phones) to proudly boast of their crimes.  Something needs to be done to change the mindset and culture before anyone can think of a Palestinian nation as viable.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Please provide a reliable link concerning PLO rejection of the Saudi peace proposal.

 

The Palestinians would definitely like a two state solution if the horrific settlers would be sent back to Israel and be banned from the Haram al-Sharif. No problem for settlers who have no animus to remain in the West Bank subject to local law. 

 

Since Israel effectively controls all access to Gaza, even through Egypt, Gaza is called the world's largest open air prison. It is why Israel will (if the US comes to its senses) hopefully be held fully to account for the ongoing collective punishment on over 2 million largely innocent people.

 

There is no wall-to-wall support among Palestinians for a two-state solution - regardless of your 'definitely'. And that's referencing the general public. Considering Hamas is not really into this, and that it's support base is significant, that would make your assertion out of touch with reality.

 

Israel does not normally have control over they Egyptian border crossing. These are special circumstances. Making up stuff again. Ignorant, or wilful people may adopt what label they want - the fact is that the blockade was not always in place and is directly tied to Hamas actions and policies. That you (and others) insist it should be lifted, but air no similar demands that Hamas change its ways does not make for a strong, of even informed, argument.

 

Your last comment is quite revealing. What you're after, apparently, is Israel's condemnation. It doesn't matter at what cost. It doesn't matter what the facts are. Thanks for sharing.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Morch

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

To your last point, up to now, Israelis have disregarded the situation of the Palestinians, so settlement activity and apartheid could continue, until the Palestinians disappeared, perhaps? Now Hamas has gotten the attention of not only Israelis, but the world. Perhaps the consensus will arrive at a viable two state solution sooner rather than later.

 

Or perhaps the World would recognize that terrorists having a secure base of operation on one's doorstep is not an acceptable proposition. It's all very well to go on and on about a two-state solution, and blame Israel for not being into it - but it's not like the Hamas is interested, and not like the PA can deliver. So basically, you've got two sides who cannot come to terms. You want to paint it otherwise? Fantasize this could be ignored? Up to you.

 

Do you expect Israeli citizens, right-wing supporters or not, to be more enthusiastic about a two-way solution following 7/10? Maybe some fringe left elements.

 

I don't see how sides could be effectively forced into an agreement, and this agreement holding.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Daniel Levy certainly thinks that a two state solution is possible, but then he is not one of those craven ones called "politicians".

 

Daniel Levy bangs about the same stuff on and on. He does not actually offer viable means as to how goals are to be achieved - usually concentrating on rather 'theoretical' concepts. Oh, and of course, Israel Bad, USA Bad, the West Bad. Nothing particularly new, original or realistic. What he talks about is more on the level of tectonic changes in USA and Israel party that may lead to something. This is largely irrelevant from a political point of view, does not address current issues, and basically removes accountability from other regional players (mostly Iran and the Palestinians).

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You can post all the links you want 

It doesn’t change the fact that Israeli citizens in Israeli borders are not living under apartheid. The discrimination that they do face does not rise to the level where that demonizing label is justified. 

You can deny all you want. I hope that in the end Israelis will come to a realization that they must have a constitution that embodies the aspirations of their Declaration of Independence.

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, placnx said:

You can deny all you want. I hope that in the end Israelis will come to a realization that they must have a constitution that embodies the aspirations of their Declaration of Independence.

Blah blah blah.

First they need to win this war.

Their survival depends on it.

 

To paraphrase 

 

If the Arabs put down their arms there will be peace.

 

If Israel puts down their arms they will be massacred.