Is Thailand heading towards an economic crisis?

[bob smith]

20 hours ago, connda said:

The world economies most of which are fueled on debt are all on the cusp of "Economic Crisis."

When i first arrived here, the price of gold was 12K THB / baht-weight.  It will be 36K (if not more) by the end of 2024 (maybe the end of March 2024).  Current value of 23 karat Thai gold per baht-weight is 33.5K THB which is up 1000 THB over the last month.  Gold is up from 29.2K THB over the last year.
Does this mean that the value of gold has tripled?  Nope.  It means the value of Thailand fiat money has been discounted by 65+% relative to gold, and you CAN see this in the inflation of prices over the last 15 years.  The value of gold move inversely to the value of debased national fiat currencies.  Governments lie about the real value of their debased currencies and real inflation.  The value of gold relative to currencies does not lie.

The debt bubble will blow - not "If" but "When."  Highly leveraged and indebted nations will fall.  Read history.  The Depression, and its effect on the global economy.  And when the banks and the economy collapse?  Well, read up on one of the most recent collapses in Argentina 1998 to 2001.  Find some first hand accounts.  It's not pretty, especially when a nation and a people are forced down to the bottom of the Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

What's at the end of the line?  World War, imho, that will support Neo-Totalitarianism in most countries and the rise of Neo-Fascism in many of what are currently referred to as "liberal democracies." 

Well said mate. 

No matter what I know I will be fine. Mrs Smith too. We have assets, cash, gold and investments. 

I will know probably a few weeks in advance before anything drastic does happen here as I keep my ear firmly to the ground. At that point, any remaining debts will be paid off and we will liquidate everything we own into USD.

 

If things get really bad we will move to somewhere our cash takes us furthest. In such dire circumstances you have to look after you and yours, it’s every man for himself, dog eat dog. 

The 30’s are shaping up to be a rather depressing time imo. 

[Balance]

Thailand is betting that the hoped-for Tourists will come back, and spend some money.  Russia and China don't have any money, and they are losing jobs among those who could afford a vacation.  Phuket is busy creating a crime-free detention arena.  But what happens when they want to explore the rest of Phuket? Lots more bad press?

 

What happened to rice exports and the car industry?  Did the government rescind the decision a few years ago that the private data of foreign companies would be subject to government review?  One or more of the large American companies went public, saying they were moving to another country.  Immigration continues to say that they will make it easier for ex-pats and retirees to negotiate the bureaucracy, but until the rules are the same throughout Thailand it is still bad press.  

 

There are many foreigners who work throughout Asia and beyond but live in Thailand, many supporting Thai families.  If the Government goes ahead with taxing foreign earnings after they have already been taxed in their home countries, you will see a large-scale permanent exit to other countries in SE Asia and many more if extended to retirement pensions.    

 

Foreigners living in Thailand and contributing to the Thai economy, often where it is needed the most with small businesses and in rural areas, want to feel secure here and not have to guess about the new schemes that pop up on a weekly basis.  90-day visas is the latest that has been put forward, but several countries around Thailand have already matched it.  Thailand lacks comprehensive long-term economic policies that don't change when a new Minister is installed.     

 

 

[BritManToo]

3 minutes ago, bob smith said:

Well said mate. 

No matter what I know I will be fine. Mrs Smith too. We have assets, cash, gold and investments. 

I will know probably a few weeks in advance before anything drastic does happen here as I keep my ear firmly to the ground. At that point, any remaining debts will be paid off and we will liquidate everything we own into USD.

 

If things get really bad we will move to somewhere our cash takes us furthest. In such dire circumstances you have to look after you and yours, it’s every man for himself, dog eat dog. 

The 30’s are shaping up to be a rather depressing time imo. 

You're assuming the banking system will survive the fall!

If the big one happens, there will be no banks and no paper money.

[Taboo2]

Yes, because they are tied to China...and if China has a cold, Thailand will have a serious problem...and  now, China is sick....so, buckle up....the ride will get bumpy.

 

You can open Thailand to 360 day visa free for Europe and America, and it still won't help.  

 

 

[bob smith]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

You're assuming the banking system will survive the fall!

If the big one happens, there will be no banks and no paper money.

Thats why i said i will probably know weeks in advance. 

 

I have friends who work in the banking sector in Thailand and mrs. Smiths childhood friend is an Economist who gives us advice.

 

It’s all about getting your ducks in a row.

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, bob smith said:

Thats why i said i will probably know weeks in advance. 

I have friends who work in the banking sector in Thailand and mrs. Smiths childhood friend is an Economist who gives us advice.

It’s all about getting your ducks in a row.

More about having a few 50kg bags of rice in your bunker IMHO.

....... and enough swords to fight off the zombies.

Edited December 1, 2023 by BritManToo

[Mike Lister]

20 hours ago, connda said:

Anyone who "Trusts The Experts" already have a load of experience bending over and grabbing their ankles. 
If you drop you soap in a shower full of experts?  It's best to kick it to the other side of the room before picking it back up.

In the meanwhile, real consumer inflation vs government manipulated tosh.

Government: "Well, instead of using toothpaste you can use baking soda and salt which are cheap.  So now that you're using baking soda instead of toothpaste, the price of toothpaste shows negative inflation.  in fact, the price of toothpaste is so depressed that we need to inject a few trillion USD into the economy to stimulate growth!"

Lie and lie and lie and lie and lie as average people are ravaged by unrelenting inflation in goods, services, and housing. 


 

Why are you posting stats about US inflation in a post about the Thai economy and why are you not posting a link and telling everyone what that misleading graph is really about, and its source?

 

I'll save you the trouble of posting the link which is below, I'll still be very interested to understand why you're being so decptive.

 

https://www.shadowstats.com/

Edited December 1, 2023 by Mike Lister

[bob smith]

I personally am looking forward to the inevitable crash.

 

It may humble the thais a bit when they realize that everything they ever had was on credit. They owned nothing and are worth nothing in reality.

 

A bit of humble pie is in order me thinks.

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, bob smith said:

I personally am looking forward to the inevitable crash.

 

It may humble the thais a bit when they realize that everything they ever had was on credit. They owned nothing and are worth nothing in reality.

 

A bit of humble pie is in order me thinks.

Rubbish! If you want to talk about a population buying everything on credit, let's talk about Western countries instead of Thailand! "Me thinks is an unfortunate choice of words!

[bob smith]

2 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Rubbish! If you want to talk about a population buying everything on credit, let's talk about Western countries instead of Thailand! "Me thinks is an unfortunate choice of words!

This is a THAI forum you clown. 

 

Why would I talk about western countries?

 

Bore off will you!

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, Taboo2 said:

Yes, because they are tied to China...and if China has a cold, Thailand will have a serious problem...and  now, China is sick....so, buckle up....the ride will get bumpy.

 

You can open Thailand to 360 day visa free for Europe and America, and it still won't help.  

 

 

 

China is sick but still likely to grow by 4.5-5% in 2024 which is more than most large economies. The middle class households are the largest in the world of over 33 million. Any sensible marketing push will certainly take into regards the large China middle-class. 

[Mike Lister]

Just now, bob smith said:

This is a THAI forum you clown. 

 

Why would I talk about western countries?

 

Bore off will you!

Thailand government debt equates to USD 3,300 per capita. Just to put that into perspective, the US debt per capita is USD 92,000 per capita. So tell us, how is everything all Thai's own on credit and they are all worth nothing?

 

https://www.worlddata.info/asia/thailand/debt.php#:~:text=National debt in Thailand&text=Based on the number of,of 3%2C729 USD per person.

[bob smith]

3 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Thailand government debt equates to USD 3,300 per capita. Just to put that into perspective, the US debt per capita is USD 92,000 per capita. So tell us, how is everything all Thai's own on credit and they are all worth nothing?

 

https://www.worlddata.info/asia/thailand/debt.php#:~:text=National debt in Thailand&text=Based on the number of,of 3%2C729 USD per person.

Are you being stupid on purpose or what? 

[1FinickyOne]

3 hours ago, Chongalulu said:

No, only in your street..

Final answer?

[Mike Lister]

Just now, bob smith said:

Are you being stupid on purpose or what? 

Answer the question, if you are able!

 

A country's economy is owned by its population, debt per capita is an accepted way to measure an economy. Consumer or Household debt is something else entirely. Thai Consumer debt is somewhere around 89% of GDP and for comparison purposes, US consumer debt is around 65%. So what? That Consumer debt level doesn't consider assets that are owned such as land, bank account and other assets, it's just debt....are you getting it yet!

[vivananahuahin]

21 hours ago, hydraides said:

LOL scare tactics to try and push through 10,000 baht scheme.....so desperate

 

Thai citizens should resist at all costs...........They will be giving their freedoms away in the name of CBDC implmenetation.....No way thailand ecocomy about to collapse lol...........Tourism is going to go to all time highs this high season........Billions of baht being spent by tourists everyday

 

sarcasm?

[Walker88]

22 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Rubbish! If you want to talk about a population buying everything on credit, let's talk about Western countries instead of Thailand! "Me thinks is an unfortunate choice of words!

At the citizen level, household debt as a % of per capita income is higher in Thailand than the US, so stimulus would have to come from the public sector. Hence, the 10K baht scheme. The figures Thailand produces re Household Debt do not include, as far as I know, gray market debt. The Thai consumer is pretty strapped right now.

 

The US has the luxury of having the world's reserve currency, a large manufacturing base that is beginning to grow again, the world's strongest military, a well-educated and creative elite (even if the average American seems like a moron), most of the resources it needs domestically or in the land of a friendly neighbor, it produces something like 350% of its caloric needs, and transparent and liquid capital markets. All of those kind of allow things Greece or Spain or Argentina or Thailand could never do.

 

At present, the world could survive a collapse of Thailand (I'm not arguing that this will happen). The world at present could not survive the collapse of the US. Yes, the debt and obligations are massive, but so is the economy. It will all tumble some day, but I suspect most members will be pushing daisies by the time that happens.

[Walker88]

20 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

. Thai Consumer debt is somewhere around 89% of GDP and for comparison purposes, US consumer debt is around 65%. So what? That Consumer debt level doesn't consider assets that are owned such as land, bank account and other assets, it's just debt....are you getting it yet!

I believe the BoT announced last month Household Debt is now 93% of GDP.

[Mike Lister]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

At the citizen level, household debt as a % of per capita income is higher in Thailand than the US, so stimulus would have to come from the public sector. Hence, the 10K baht scheme. The figures Thailand produces re Household Debt do not include, as far as I know, gray market debt. The Thai consumer is pretty strapped right now.

 

The US has the luxury of having the world's reserve currency, a large manufacturing base that is beginning to grow again, the world's strongest military, a well-educated and creative elite (even if the average American seems like a moron), most of the resources it needs domestically or in the land of a friendly neighbor, it produces something like 350% of its caloric needs, and transparent and liquid capital markets. All of those kind of allow things Greece or Spain or Argentina or Thailand could never do.

 

At present, the world could survive a collapse of Thailand (I'm not arguing that this will happen). The world at present could not survive the collapse of the US. Yes, the debt and obligations are massive, but so is the economy. It will all tumble some day, but I suspect most members will be pushing daisies by the time that happens.

Yep, I agree. Most figures don't include debt from the grey economy but neither do they include income from it either and this is massive. Unlike the US where the grey economy is quite small, the grey economy here is worth something close to 48% of GDP and that remains untapped from a tax revenue perspective. So US debt per capita share of income in the US may be lower but the untapped grey economy income here is the reason. It would be extreme and unnecessary to look at combined debt per capita, government and private debt, but the numbers would be telling. At this juncture, if and when the wheel does come off, it will be fairly easy for Thai's to go back to basis, less so Americans who would no longer know how to live off the land or fend for themselves, the relative extents of debt being the major reason why. 

 

 

 

 

[Walker88]

I don't see a crisis, but a slowdown is likely.

 

What I have no idea about is the condition of the banks. I learned long ago (in Japan) not to trust the stated level of either NPLs or income. In times of crisis confidence becomes more important than truth or reality.

 

I do know there was a debt moratorium during part of the Covid Era. I also read that the authorities allowed banks to book imputed interest, as if borrowers were actually servicing their debt when they were not. Japan did that in the early 1990s.

 

Japan also changed rules regarding consolidation on the parent's balance sheet, so that losses could be hidden in non-consolidated subsidiaries. I do not know if Thailand also has done that. I just know it pays to be skeptical re banks.

[Mike Lister]

8 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I believe the BoT announced last month Household Debt is now 93% of GDP.

Yes, very possibly so. But we need to keep in mind that the debt to GDP percentage, rises and falls of its own accord, as GDP increases and falls. Right now, GDP of USD 503 bill. is below the USD 543 bill that it was pre covid which means the percentage increases, as GDP falls, it doesn't explicitly mean that more people are going into debt, just that the percentage calculations is higher.

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I don't see a crisis, but a slowdown is likely.

 

What I have no idea about is the condition of the banks. I learned long ago (in Japan) not to trust the stated level of either NPLs or income. In times of crisis confidence becomes more important than truth or reality.

 

I do know there was a debt moratorium during part of the Covid Era. I also read that the authorities allowed banks to book imputed interest, as if borrowers were actually servicing their debt when they were not. Japan did that in the early 1990s.

 

Japan also changed rules regarding consolidation on the parent's balance sheet, so that losses could be hidden in non-consolidated subsidiaries. I do not know if Thailand also has done that. I just know it pays to be skeptical re banks.

The biggest threat on this score that I see is the move to hive off consumer loans that are on watch, into another private company because that will distort the definition of NPL before long, even if it does protect the banks..

[RichardColeman]

Get even worse if the new Chinese flu gets going 

[Mike Lister]

12 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Get even worse if the new Chinese flu gets going 

FWIW I think the el nino threat to agriculture is the biggest  threat next year.

[Bim Smith]

highest foreign currency reserves these last three years in history. It can weather closing the country it can weather anything. Its scare tactics to bring on the 10 thousand baht scheme to normalize the cashless society

[OldBird]

Bad policies by corrupt politicians lead to a bad economy.

[RocketDog]

23 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Is the entire world heading for a financial crisis?

Without a doubt. World is awash in fiat currency and a reckoning will be made at some point.

Adding more zeros to currency does not real wealth make.

[off road pat]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:06 AM, connda said:

The world economies most of which are fueled on debt are all on the cusp of "Economic Crisis."

When i first arrived here, the price of gold was 12K THB / baht-weight.  It will be 36K (if not more) by the end of 2024 (maybe the end of March 2024).  Current value of 23 karat Thai gold per baht-weight is 33.5K THB which is up 1000 THB over the last month.  Gold is up from 29.2K THB over the last year.
Does this mean that the value of gold has tripled?  Nope.  It means the value of Thailand fiat money has been discounted by 65+% relative to gold, and you CAN see this in the inflation of prices over the last 15 years.  The value of gold move inversely to the value of debased national fiat currencies.  Governments lie about the real value of their debased currencies and real inflation.  The value of gold relative to currencies does not lie.

The debt bubble will blow - not "If" but "When."  Highly leveraged and indebted nations will fall.  Read history.  The Depression, and its effect on the global economy.  And when the banks and the economy collapse?  Well, read up on one of the most recent collapses in Argentina 1998 to 2001.  Find some first hand accounts.  It's not pretty, especially when a nation and a people are forced down to the bottom of the Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

What's at the end of the line?  World War, imho, that will support Neo-Totalitarianism in most countries and the rise of Neo-Fascism in many of what are currently referred to as "liberal democracies." 

Excellent piece, thx for the information !

[Stevemercer]

Thailand will struggle on. Pundits have been foreseeing an econimic crash for years, but the Baht just keeps going higher (against everything except the US dollar).

[Drumbuie]

On 11/30/2023 at 3:06 PM, connda said:

The world economies most of which are fueled on debt are all on the cusp of "Economic Crisis."

When i first arrived here, the price of gold was 12K THB / baht-weight.  It will be 36K (if not more) by the end of 2024 (maybe the end of March 2024).  Current value of 23 karat Thai gold per baht-weight is 33.5K THB which is up 1000 THB over the last month.  Gold is up from 29.2K THB over the last year.
Does this mean that the value of gold has tripled?  Nope.  It means the value of Thailand fiat money has been discounted by 65+% relative to gold, and you CAN see this in the inflation of prices over the last 15 years.  The value of gold move inversely to the value of debased national fiat currencies.  Governments lie about the real value of their debased currencies and real inflation.  The value of gold relative to currencies does not lie.

The debt bubble will blow - not "If" but "When."  Highly leveraged and indebted nations will fall.  Read history.  The Depression, and its effect on the global economy.  And when the banks and the economy collapse?  Well, read up on one of the most recent collapses in Argentina 1998 to 2001.  Find some first hand accounts.  It's not pretty, especially when a nation and a people are forced down to the bottom of the Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

What's at the end of the line?  World War, imho, that will support Neo-Totalitarianism in most countries and the rise of Neo-Fascism in many of what are currently referred to as "liberal democracies." 

 Hmm. No need for another world war with the inherent danger of going nuclear - the oligarchs know war is good for business but nuclear war is absolutely not. 

 

Meanwhile the rise of neo- fascism and totalitarianism is coming along very nicely, assisted by the use of social media combined with the abuse of its vast datasets, plus a captured mainstream media which prevents proper discussion of the accelerating erosion of freedoms in what *used* to be liberal democracies.