American warship, multiple commercial vessels come under attack in Red Sea

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One takeaway from this is that the true cost of fossil fuels should include the cost of building and maintaining military forces to protect the supply. Bad actors in the middle east, Russia, and elsewhere are going to be able to get up to less and less mischief as renewables increasingly power the world economy.

[Morch]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

One takeaway from this is that the true cost of fossil fuels should include the cost of building and maintaining military forces to protect the supply. Bad actors in the middle east, Russia, and elsewhere are going to be able to get up to less and less mischief as renewables increasingly power the world economy.

 

Indeed.

 

That's one reason I think the situation will be resolved - too many interests are being effected.

 

As a long term goal, absolutely.

[Tug]

On 12/17/2023 at 6:17 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I have absolutely no idea of what that means, speaking as someone that actually was in the military. Counter implies against a target- are you saying the allied navies are going to sail to Yemen and open fire on Houthis on land.

Battery implies a group of artillery, but the Houthis are not firing artillery at the ships.

Well you sure could have fooled me as to thinking you were ex military .he could be referring to a naval barrage but you beeing x military in all im sure you know any naval force would never expose itself like that we would respond with cruse missiles or perhaps a b2 stealth bomber loaded to the gills with some love for those dumb guys with their toy airplanes oh and furthermore the Israeli are surrounded by countrys that want them dead it’s not just the people in Gaza that want them dead

[Hawaiian]

19 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Indeed.

 

That's one reason I think the situation will be resolved - too many interests are being effected.

 

As a long term goal, absolutely.

The big question is what is it going to take to resolve the situation.  Every day this goes on the greater economic damage.  How long before offensive action is taken?  No one wants to things spiral out of control, but the present strategy is not working.

On another note, the U.S. has reached record oil production.  What effect is Angola's withdrawal from OPEC going to have?  Will China's slowing economy cut back oil imports from Iran, a major financial backer of the terrorists? 

[placeholder]

Shipping giant Maersk prepares to resume operations in Red Sea

Denmark’s Maersk is preparing to resume shipping operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the company said on Sunday, citing the deployment of a U.S.-led military operation designed to ensure the safety of commerce in the area.

The shipping giant paused sending vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb strait earlier in December due to attacks against its ships. That rendered the Suez Canal, which is key to global commerce, unusable for most routes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/24/shipping-giant-maersk-prepares-to-resume-operations-in-red-sea.html

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Shipping giant Maersk prepares to resume operations in Red Sea

Denmark’s Maersk is preparing to resume shipping operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the company said on Sunday, citing the deployment of a U.S.-led military operation designed to ensure the safety of commerce in the area.

The shipping giant paused sending vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb strait earlier in December due to attacks against its ships. That rendered the Suez Canal, which is key to global commerce, unusable for most routes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/24/shipping-giant-maersk-prepares-to-resume-operations-in-red-sea.html

Interesting.  Seems as if they have volunteered to be the guinea pig to see how effective the task force is.  I say guinea pig because the announcement also indicated that they may halt shipping again if the situation becomes too risky.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Hawaiian
Correction

[Morch]

2 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Interesting.  Seems as if they have volunteered to be the guinea pig to see how effective the task force is.  I say guinea pig because the announcement also indicated that they may halt shipping again if the situation becomes too risky.

 

More like they got proper assurances from relevant government, and sorted things with their insurance.

[Hawaiian]

20 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

More like they got proper assurances from relevant government, and sorted things with their insurance.

What kind of assurance from what relevant government? 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Hawaiian

[Morch]

1 minute ago, Hawaiian said:

What kind of assurance from what relevant government? 

 

As it what kind of protection they can expect, coordination with relevant navies and intel briefings.

[Hawaiian]

3 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

As it what kind of protection they can expect, coordination with relevant navies and intel briefings.

What makes the head of this task force think they can provide the protection now. Commercial vessels were hit in the past even when naval vessels were in the vicinity.

Israel's Iron Dome was overwhelmed when Hamas fired more rockets than the system could knock down.  I read reports that some of those that got through did significant damage.  I think someone is being over confident. 

If a barrage of missiles were fired at different targets, including both navy and commercial targets, what do you think the obvious choice would be?  I am looking at this from logical point of view, not knowing what the plan of action is.

I am quite sure there are standing orders governing such a situation.

[Morch]

1 minute ago, Hawaiian said:

What makes the head of this task force think they can provide the protection now. Commercial vessels were hit in the past even when naval vessels were in the vicinity.

Israel's Iron Dome was overwhelmed when Hamas fired more rockets than the system could knock down.  I read reports that some of those that got through did significant damage.  I think someone is being over confident. 

If a barrage of missiles were fired at different targets, including both navy and commercial targets, what do you think the obvious choice would be?  I am looking at this from logical point of view, not knowing what the plan of action is.

I am quite sure there are standing orders governing such a situation.

 

Maybe there are more ships deployed, maybe their operational parameters (as in what they are allowed to do) changed - I have no more detail about this than you. But stands to reason that if they shipping companies plan to resume operations, their concerns were addressed.

 

I don't think that there was a major instance where the Iron Dome system was overwhelmed, I'm not exactly sure how that's relevant to this topic.

 

As far as I'm aware modern interception systems are capable of detecting, analyzing and engaging multiple targets. From what I've seen so far, doesn't seem like the threat to shipping lines is to do with inundating defense systems with missiles/rockets/drones.

[Hawaiian]

18 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Maybe there are more ships deployed, maybe their operational parameters (as in what they are allowed to do) changed - I have no more detail about this than you. But stands to reason that if they shipping companies plan to resume operations, their concerns were addressed.

 

I don't think that there was a major instance where the Iron Dome system was overwhelmed, I'm not exactly sure how that's relevant to this topic.

 

As far as I'm aware modern interception systems are capable of detecting, analyzing and engaging multiple targets. From what I've seen so far, doesn't seem like the threat to shipping lines is to do with inundating defense systems with missiles/rockets/drones.

Iron Dome "overwhelmed"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-10/what-is-israel-iron-dome-air-defence-gaza-rockets/102952172

There are other links out there saying the same thing.

Relevance is, no matter how good a defense system is it can be "overwhelmed."

This has been a major concern with ABM defense systems.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Hawaiian
clarification

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Iron Dome "overwhelmed"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-10/what-is-israel-iron-dome-air-defence-gaza-rockets/102952172

Relevance is, no matter how good a defense system is it can be "overwhelmed."

This has been a major concern with ABM defense systems.

 

That?!

 

This can happen, sure. For short period of times, and as function of how many operational batteries are deployed.

I don't know that there was severe damage done even so, or that the system was not operational or something.

 

The Yemen situation is maybe different in that due to distance and size of missiles needed, it might be harder (or not practical) for the Houthies to launch thousands at once). These aren't exactly comparable situations, in my opinion.

[Hawaiian]

30 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Maybe there are more ships deployed, maybe their operational parameters (as in what they are allowed to do) changed - I have no more detail about this than you. But stands to reason that if they shipping companies plan to resume operations, their concerns were addressed.

 

I don't think that there was a major instance where the Iron Dome system was overwhelmed, I'm not exactly sure how that's relevant to this topic.

 

As far as I'm aware modern interception systems are capable of detecting, analyzing and engaging multiple targets. From what I've seen so far, doesn't seem like the threat to shipping lines is to do with inundating defense systems with missiles/rockets/drones.

I agree

 

3 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

That?!

 

This can happen, sure. For short period of times, and as function of how many operational batteries are deployed.

I don't know that there was severe damage done even so, or that the system was not operational or something.

 

The Yemen situation is maybe different in that due to distance and size of missiles needed, it might be harder (or not practical) for the Houthies to launch thousands at once). These aren't exactly comparable situations, in my opinion.

Did you read the whole article.  It gave the number of rockets fired and the number shot down.  Although it is rather doubtful the Houthis can match this. 

As a U.S. Navy veteran, I would be the last to downplay the effectiveness of our Navy.  The Aegis Combat System has a proven track record of excellence in actual combat.  The USS Mason (DDG87) successfully shot down a Houthi barrage of 12 missiles. The USS Carney (DDG64) also shot down a barrage of missiles.  I served aboard several ships, but none had these kind of advanced defense systems.  I retired before these systems were developed.

In doing a little research, I found out other countries in the task force have  ships that were successful in shooting down Houthi missiles. Not sure what missile systems they use.

Hopefully, the mission is a success.  If it is, what will the Mullahs in Tehran do next?

 

 

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

I agree

 

Did you read the whole article.  It gave the number of rockets fired and the number shot down.  Although it is rather doubtful the Houthis can match this. 

As a U.S. Navy veteran, I would be the last to downplay the effectiveness of our Navy.  The Aegis Combat System has a proven track record of excellence in actual combat.  The USS Mason (DDG87) successfully shot down a Houthi barrage of 12 missiles. The USS Carney (DDG64) also shot down a barrage of missiles.  I served aboard several ships, but none had these kind of advanced defense systems.  I retired before these systems were developed.

In doing a little research, I found out other countries in the task force have  ships that were successful in shooting down Houthi missiles. Not sure what missile systems they use.

Hopefully, the mission is a success.  If it is, what will the Mullahs in Tehran do next?

 

 

 

The important factor is if the system can still prioritize which missiles are more of a threat, and deal with them first. As it is, the system shoots quite a lot of missiles which are borderline in terms of threat represented (not taking chances etc.). So long as this element functions reasonably, it's alright. As with any such system there's an ongoing battle between sides - one tries to find ways to bypass the system, the other shores them up or tries to anticipate them. The thing it's likely the same ploy will not work another time.

 

The question of there not being enough troops, units and systems down there is a major issue, which will need to be thoroughly investigated.

 

As a naval person, you can appreciate that significantly damaging a ship of the size we're talking about requires something with a rather large payload, and range. So yes, it would not be feasible for the Houthies (or even Iran) to send hundreds of these at one time. From their point of view, enough if they succeeded slipping in one every now and then, to make things troublesome.

 

According to reports, there's at least one or two Iranian surveillance vessels prowling the area, supplying the Houthies with information. The Iranians deny, but this is easy enough to prove (at the cost of exposing means), so maybe the public announcement was to make them pack up before it comes to a head, we'll see. There was also a recent reports about another ship attacked by Iran itself - not near Yemen, but more towards India. Again, wait and see.

[Hawaiian]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The important factor is if the system can still prioritize which missiles are more of a threat, and deal with them first. As it is, the system shoots quite a lot of missiles which are borderline in terms of threat represented (not taking chances etc.). So long as this element functions reasonably, it's alright. As with any such system there's an ongoing battle between sides - one tries to find ways to bypass the system, the other shores them up or tries to anticipate them. The thing it's likely the same ploy will not work another time.

 

The question of there not being enough troops, units and systems down there is a major issue, which will need to be thoroughly investigated.

 

As a naval person, you can appreciate that significantly damaging a ship of the size we're talking about requires something with a rather large payload, and range. So yes, it would not be feasible for the Houthies (or even Iran) to send hundreds of these at one time. From their point of view, enough if they succeeded slipping in one every now and then, to make things troublesome.

 

According to reports, there's at least one or two Iranian surveillance vessels prowling the area, supplying the Houthies with information. The Iranians deny, but this is easy enough to prove (at the cost of exposing means), so maybe the public announcement was to make them pack up before it comes to a head, we'll see. There was also a recent reports about another ship attacked by Iran itself - not near Yemen, but more towards India. Again, wait and see.

Also reports of another ships attacked in the same area.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/initial-probe-of-ship-attacked-in-indian-ocean-confirms-drone-strike-india-deploys-three-warships-to-maintain-deterrent-presence/ar-AA1m0CEt

Looks like Iran is raising the stakes.  If so, a miscalculation on their part.

[Hawaiian]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The important factor is if the system can still prioritize which missiles are more of a threat, and deal with them first. As it is, the system shoots quite a lot of missiles which are borderline in terms of threat represented (not taking chances etc.). So long as this element functions reasonably, it's alright. As with any such system there's an ongoing battle between sides - one tries to find ways to bypass the system, the other shores them up or tries to anticipate them. The thing it's likely the same ploy will not work another time.

 

The question of there not being enough troops, units and systems down there is a major issue, which will need to be thoroughly investigated.

 

As a naval person, you can appreciate that significantly damaging a ship of the size we're talking about requires something with a rather large payload, and range. So yes, it would not be feasible for the Houthies (or even Iran) to send hundreds of these at one time. From their point of view, enough if they succeeded slipping in one every now and then, to make things troublesome.

 

According to reports, there's at least one or two Iranian surveillance vessels prowling the area, supplying the Houthies with information. The Iranians deny, but this is easy enough to prove (at the cost of exposing means), so maybe the public announcement was to make them pack up before it comes to a head, we'll see. There was also a recent reports about another ship attacked by Iran itself - not near Yemen, but more towards India. Again, wait and see.

The is way past serious.  Question: What will Modi do, besides cooperating with others?

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/indian-flagged-oil-tanker-hit-by-houthi-drone-in-red-sea-us-military-9080799/

 

[stevenl]

6 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

The is way past serious.  Question: What will Modi do, besides cooperating with others?

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/indian-flagged-oil-tanker-hit-by-houthi-drone-in-red-sea-us-military-9080799/

 

"What will Modi do, besides cooperating with others?"

Nothing except maybe send a ship that way.

Edited December 26, 2023 by stevenl

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, stevenl said:

"What will Modi do, besides cooperating with others?"

Nothing except maybe send a ship that way.

Are you saying the leader of the world's fourth ranked military power will sit on his hands? 

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Are you saying the leader of the world's fourth ranked military power will sit on his hands? 

 

Probably.

Trade relations being what they are, India will probably try to influence things diplomatically, plus get more involved in the defensive angle.

[Hawaiian]

40 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Probably.

Trade relations being what they are, India will probably try to influence things diplomatically, plus get more involved in the defensive angle.

Agree.  Have you noticed they have not joined the other 20 or so countries in the task force?  Like you say, they don't want to take sides.

[placeholder]

22 hours ago, placeholder said:

Shipping giant Maersk prepares to resume operations in Red Sea

Denmark’s Maersk is preparing to resume shipping operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the company said on Sunday, citing the deployment of a U.S.-led military operation designed to ensure the safety of commerce in the area.

The shipping giant paused sending vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb strait earlier in December due to attacks against its ships. That rendered the Suez Canal, which is key to global commerce, unusable for most routes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/24/shipping-giant-maersk-prepares-to-resume-operations-in-red-sea.html

On the other hand there's this:

Iran-Backed Forces Widen Their Attacks on Commercial Shipping

"But other companies that have stopped voyages through the waterway, including BP PLC of the U.K. and Equinor of Norway, have yet to return."

 https://archive.ph/oQfMI#selection-4575.0-4581.61

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-forces-widen-their-attacks-on-commercial-shipping-3121ae62?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

On the other hand there's this:

Iran-Backed Forces Widen Their Attacks on Commercial Shipping

"But other companies that have stopped voyages through the waterway, including BP PLC of the U.K. and Equinor of Norway, have yet to return."

 https://archive.ph/oQfMI#selection-4575.0-4581.61

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-forces-widen-their-attacks-on-commercial-shipping-3121ae62?mod=hp_lead_pos1

The very reason why I mentioned guinea pig.