Next UK election set to be most unequal in 60 years, study finds

[CharlieH]

 

The next election is set to be the most unequal in 60 years thanks to a rising gap in voter turnout based on age, income, class, home ownership and ethnicity, a new study has found.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a centre-left thinktank, found that the turnout gap was negligible between social groups in the 1960s, but that it had grown by 2010 to 18 percentage points between the top set of earners – who are more likely to vote – and the bottom set.

 

It rises to a 23-point gap between homeowners – who were more likely to vote – and renters, and a 15-point gap between graduates and those who did not go to university. There are 28 points between those aged 61 and over who were more likely to vote than 18-24-year-olds.

 

The IPPR found that nine in every 10 people in the top third of the income distribution voted in the two most recent general elections, compared with only seven in 10 from the bottom third.

The bottom third of earners were about three times more likely to say it is not worth voting than the top third, while renters are also more than twice as likely as homeowners to say the same.

The study also analysed those who have been in contact with politicians, finding that one in three university graduates has directly contacted a politician, compared with one in seven people without degrees.

The study did not look at whether the Conservatives or Labour benefit most from the gap in turnout, although older voters are more likely to opt for the Tories than Labour.

Dr Parth Patel, a senior research fellow at the IPPR, said one of the consequences was that government policy was more attuned to the needs of the older, better-off and those with higher levels of education.

 

FULL STORY

 

[JonnyF]

I believe the main factor is education. Those with a higher level of education are more likely to vote, and as a consequence of their education they are also likely to be homeowners and better off financially.

 

The fact that the more educated people are more likely to vote explains why Labour have found it so difficult to get elected in recent years. It's very difficult for someone with a reasonable level of education to take the likes of Dianne Abbott or Angela Rayner seriously. 

[goldenbrwn1]

I think they may be wrong on this election. There’s a growing anger in the UK from the majority that just get on with things like going to work etc. Going by conversations I have had but mostly on SM platforms , the public are sick to death with a certain demographic of people and their political ideology. There’s gong to be few shocks this time around . 🤞 

[candide]

The educated may be more likely to vote. However, previous elections and referendum have also shown that the vote of people who felt they had been 'left behind' could also be very influential.

Do these people now feel they chose the adequate option when they voted? Or do they feel they have been fooled again and are angry?

[JonnyF]

20 minutes ago, candide said:

The educated may be more likely to vote. However, previous elections and referendum have also shown that the vote of people who felt they had been 'left behind' could also be very influential.

Do these people now feel they chose the adequate option when they voted? Or do they feel they have been fooled again and are angry?

 

A good point. It will be interesting. People don't want to vote for Labour because they are totally clueless as shown when it took Starmer a year to work out what a woman is (amongst other things like Abbott comparing hating Jews to teasing Gingers). 

 

The Tories have let the public down on immigration and are generally a bit of a mess with an uninspiring leader.

 

Unless something drastic happens like the Tories split in two with one of the factions offering genuine Conservative politics with a charismatic leader like Farage, or Labour implode with some Woke or anti-semitic PR disaster (or possibly promising a Re-Join referendum) then I can see a record low voter turnout with possibly no overall majority. 

[candide]

18 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

A good point. It will be interesting. People don't want to vote for Labour because they are totally clueless as shown when it took Starmer a year to work out what a woman is (amongst other things like Abbott comparing hating Jews to teasing Gingers). 

 

The Tories have let the public down on immigration and are generally a bit of a mess with an uninspiring leader.

 

Unless something drastic happens like the Tories split in two with one of the factions offering genuine Conservative politics with a charismatic leader like Farage, or Labour implode with some Woke or anti-semitic PR disaster (or possibly promising a Re-Join referendum) then I can see a record low voter turnout with possibly no overall majority. 

My comment was more about people who felt they had been economically left behind, and obviously have not seen their economic situation improve during the the last 5/6 years (rather the opposite, it seems). 

 

They may not vote, or vote to oust the political factions they trusted in previous votes, as they have been left them behind again (and maybe more than before).

[Red Forever]

Tories know that the game's up. They've asset stripped the country and there's not much left to steal....oops, to hand over to their millionaire donor class.

They have a year in which to lay booby traps for the incoming administration to sort out. This is why it's so important to get those whose lives have been so badly affected by this shower of right wing grifters and charlatans out to vote.

[mfd101]

If you don't participate, you can't win.

 

Or, as in Usofa, if you vote for those whose interests are the opposite of yours, you still can't win.

[RayC]

9 hours ago, JonnyF said:

I believe the main factor is education. Those with a higher level of education are more likely to vote, and as a consequence of their education they are also likely to be homeowners and better off financially.

 

The fact that the more educated people are more likely to vote explains why Labour have found it so difficult to get elected in recent years. It's very difficult for someone with a reasonable level of education to take the likes of Dianne Abbott or Angela Rayner seriously. 

 

Jonny, Why do you feel the need to demonstrate that you failed GCSE Logic?😉

[dunroaming]

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

A good point. It will be interesting. People don't want to vote for Labour because they are totally clueless as shown when it took Starmer a year to work out what a woman is (amongst other things like Abbott comparing hating Jews to teasing Gingers). 

 

The Tories have let the public down on immigration and are generally a bit of a mess with an uninspiring leader.

 

Unless something drastic happens like the Tories split in two with one of the factions offering genuine Conservative politics with a charismatic leader like Farage, or Labour implode with some Woke or anti-semitic PR disaster (or possibly promising a Re-Join referendum) then I can see a record low voter turnout with possibly no overall majority. 

 

Interesting points.  It has taken a long time for Labour to dump the likes of Abbot and the Corbynites, but finally they realise that the loony left makes them completely unelectable  Now you have Starmer being coached by Blair and Mandelson.  But no matter how you dress him up, Starmer is no Blair and cannot really bring the party together.  In short Labour still doesn't look like a viable government in waiting,

 

However the Tories have systematically screwed up just about everything they have touched and their credibility has been shot to pieces and they are lying (sic) in ruins.  The rot really started with Cameron and his austerity measures but things seriously went downhill when Johnson and his ne'er do wells took the reins.  No point in repeating the chaos that followed as it is all well documented and indeed continuing.

 

There is no doubt that Farage will try poaching hard right members of the Conservative party for his Reform Party, unless he actually tries to join the Tory party.  Problem with that is that it is likely to weaken the Tory Party more.  In fact I think that anything that divides the Party even more will have dire consequences in an election.  Sunak has virtually no chance of bringing the party together behind him, far too many loose cannons out there.  The plotting and scheming behind closed doors is even more prolific now than in Johnson's day.

 

So we don't know when the election will be called but I doubt it will be soon given the disarray that the government is in.  And I have gazed out over the horizon and cannot see any knights in shining armour to come and rescue us all.   I expect there will be enough people (reluctantly) to hold their respective noses and vote Labour to get them over the line. 

 

As for the turnout?  Expectations are not high but people may turn out because we desperately need to get rid of this shower of imbeciles.  Time will tell!

[JonnyF]

13 hours ago, RayC said:

 

Jonny, Why do you feel the need to demonstrate that you failed GCSE Logic?😉

 

There is no GCSE for "logic" so it would be impossible to fail that. Hence your silly comment is not only childish but also illogical. 

 

I'm sure if we were to compare our educational achievements you would look rather foolish. 

 

[JonnyF]

13 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

Interesting points.  It has taken a long time for Labour to dump the likes of Abbot and the Corbynites, but finally they realise that the loony left makes them completely unelectable  Now you have Starmer being coached by Blair and Mandelson.  But no matter how you dress him up, Starmer is no Blair and cannot really bring the party together.  In short Labour still doesn't look like a viable government in waiting,

 

However the Tories have systematically screwed up just about everything they have touched and their credibility has been shot to pieces and they are lying (sic) in ruins.  The rot really started with Cameron and his austerity measures but things seriously went downhill when Johnson and his ne'er do wells took the reins.  No point in repeating the chaos that followed as it is all well documented and indeed continuing.

 

There is no doubt that Farage will try poaching hard right members of the Conservative party for his Reform Party, unless he actually tries to join the Tory party.  Problem with that is that it is likely to weaken the Tory Party more.  In fact I think that anything that divides the Party even more will have dire consequences in an election.  Sunak has virtually no chance of bringing the party together behind him, far too many loose cannons out there.  The plotting and scheming behind closed doors is even more prolific now than in Johnson's day.

 

So we don't know when the election will be called but I doubt it will be soon given the disarray that the government is in.  And I have gazed out over the horizon and cannot see any knights in shining armour to come and rescue us all.   I expect there will be enough people (reluctantly) to hold their respective noses and vote Labour to get them over the line. 

 

As for the turnout?  Expectations are not high but people may turn out because we desperately need to get rid of this shower of imbeciles.  Time will tell!

 

I'd agree with most of that. But don't underestimate the possibility of Farage doing something spectacular. Remember when he formed the Brexit party and destroyed the opposition in the European elections in double quick time? People laughed at the idea, but as he finally said while speaking in the EU Parliament, "you're not laughing now, are you?".

 

Whatever you think of him, he can read the room and there is very strong anti-immigration sentiment in the UK right now, he could feed off that and take votes off Labour and Conservatives, since both of those are pretty useless right now and people have lost patience with both of them. He could well be the cat amongst the pigeons and change the look of the Labour vs Conservative bickering that many have grown so tired of. 

[BritManToo]

23 hours ago, JonnyF said:

I believe the main factor is education. Those with a higher level of education are more likely to vote, and as a consequence of their education they are also likely to be homeowners and better off financially.

 

The fact that the more educated people are more likely to vote explains why Labour have found it so difficult to get elected in recent years. It's very difficult for someone with a reasonable level of education to take the likes of Dianne Abbott or Angela Rayner seriously. 

Educated up the wazoo here,

Most of my fellow educated Brits are trots or Marxists ...... None of us vote Conservative.

 

My last vote was for Arthur Skargills socialist workers party.

 

Labour are way too right wing for me! We want a party that will redistribute the wealth and land, and destroy the big corporations.

Edited December 13, 2023 by BritManToo

[RayC]

9 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

There is no GCSE for "logic" so it would be impossible to fail that. Hence your silly comment is not only childish but also illogical. 

 

Touché. My apologies. I deserved that. It was a simple, childish comment. 

 

9 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

I'm sure if we were to compare our educational achievements you would look rather foolish. 

 

 

..... however given that you know nothing of my educational achievements, that is no more than a guess.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be confident that a guess was correct but each to their own.

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Educated up the wazoo here,

Most of my fellow educated Brits are trots or Marxists ...... None of us vote Conservative.

 

My last vote was for Arthur Skargills socialist workers party.

 

Labour are way too right wing for me! We want a party that will redistribute the wealth and land, and destroy the big corporations.

 

Yeah there is an element of that as well. I actually voted Labour myself when I was a Uni student, but I forgave myself a long time ago. A few confessions helped. Lord forgive me for I have sinned, and all that.  In fairness to me, I never expected Blair to team up with Bush for an illegal war based on lies which de-stabilized the Middle East - my bad.

 

A lot of my ex Uni buddies are now north London champagne socialists as well, always talking about their apparently fashionable postcode and "Tory scum" on FaceBook. However, quite a few who have gone on to be successful have seen the error of their ways.

[dunroaming]

10 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

I'd agree with most of that. But don't underestimate the possibility of Farage doing something spectacular. Remember when he formed the Brexit party and destroyed the opposition in the European elections in double quick time? People laughed at the idea, but as he finally said while speaking in the EU Parliament, "you're not laughing now, are you?".

 

Whatever you think of him, he can read the room and there is very strong anti-immigration sentiment in the UK right now, he could feed off that and take votes off Labour and Conservatives, since both of those are pretty useless right now and people have lost patience with both of them. He could well be the cat amongst the pigeons and change the look of the Labour vs Conservative bickering that many have grown so tired of. 

 

I agree.  But there is a sea change when it comes to peoples attitude to Brexit.   Illegal immigration has soared since Brexit and many of the lies that it was based on have now been exposed.  However this is not a discussion about Brexit and my only point here is that I feel that there are far less people this time around who would swallow all the Farage bull<deleted>.

 

In several other countries in Europe there has been a noticeable swing to the right and I think that much of that is over illegal and to some extent, legal immigration.  In Britain the government have been on a serious immigration drive to replace many of the EU workers we lost over Brexit. Some of that from Africa and the far east where they are fast tracking nurses for the NHS and social care. They  have also ramped up overseas recruitment for the universities which brings in big bucks for them, with foreign students paying far more for their places.  This doesn't explain all the increased immigration figures but it should be noted that the vast majority of them are legal immigrants and not coming in small boats.

 

There are certainly headlines (from the looney right wing rags) suggesting a Johnson/Farage dream team but I would be amazed if that ever came to fruition.  If it did then surely that would be the final nail in the coffin of the Tories!

[placeholder]

On 12/12/2023 at 2:18 PM, JonnyF said:

 

A good point. It will be interesting. People don't want to vote for Labour because they are totally clueless as shown when it took Starmer a year to work out what a woman is (amongst other things like Abbott comparing hating Jews to teasing Gingers). 

 

The Tories have let the public down on immigration and are generally a bit of a mess with an uninspiring leader.

 

Unless something drastic happens like the Tories split in two with one of the factions offering genuine Conservative politics with a charismatic leader like Farage, or Labour implode with some Woke or anti-semitic PR disaster (or possibly promising a Re-Join referendum) then I can see a record low voter turnout with possibly no overall majority. 

It's a good thing that the Tories haven't let the public down on the National Health Service. Because if they had, then their position would be hopeless...oh wait a minute.

[placeholder]

On 12/12/2023 at 1:28 PM, goldenbrwn1 said:

I think they may be wrong on this election. There’s a growing anger in the UK from the majority that just get on with things like going to work etc. Going by conversations I have had but mostly on SM platforms , the public are sick to death with a certain demographic of people and their political ideology. There’s gong to be few shocks this time around . 🤞 

Projecting much?

[goldenbrwn1]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

Projecting much?

Hopium…

[JonnyF]

18 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

I agree.  But there is a sea change when it comes to peoples attitude to Brexit.   Illegal immigration has soared since Brexit and many of the lies that it was based on have now been exposed.  However this is not a discussion about Brexit and my only point here is that I feel that there are far less people this time around who would swallow all the Farage bull<deleted>.

 

Brexit simply gave the goverment the tools to handle immigration. The fact they have messed it up will likely result in them losing power. That's the way it should be. At least we can remove them via the ballot box unlike the faceless technocrats and the unelected commission (unelected by the populace, I am aware of the multi layered facade) running the EU. 

 

18 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

In several other countries in Europe there has been a noticeable swing to the right and I think that much of that is over illegal and to some extent, legal immigration.  In Britain the government have been on a serious immigration drive to replace many of the EU workers we lost over Brexit. Some of that from Africa and the far east where they are fast tracking nurses for the NHS and social care. They  have also ramped up overseas recruitment for the universities which brings in big bucks for them, with foreign students paying far more for their places.  This doesn't explain all the increased immigration figures but it should be noted that the vast majority of them are legal immigrants and not coming in small boats.

 

There is certainly a rise in the right, and not only in the EU. I put it down to massive over-reach by the Woke left, people have simply had enough of being bullied into silence on biological truths and scientific facts. That's just my opinion though...

 

18 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

There are certainly headlines (from the looney right wing rags) suggesting a Johnson/Farage dream team but I would be amazed if that ever came to fruition.  If it did then surely that would be the final nail in the coffin of the Tories!

 

Johnson and Farage. Now that would be something.

[JonnyF]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's a good thing that the Tories haven't let the public down on the National Health Service. Because if they had, then their position would be hopeless...oh wait a minute.

 

There are many reasons the NHS is in a mess (a good friend of mine is a senior accountant there so I am aware of a lot of the wastage) but lack of investment by the Tories is not one of them.

 

 

https://www.myhsn.co.uk/top-tip/how-much-does-the-nhs-cost

 

Perhaps a bigger spend on healthcare and less diversity offers on huge salaries could help.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11999319/Another-450-000-wasted-woke-inclusion-diversity-officer-roles-month-alone.html

 

[placeholder]

47 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

There are many reasons the NHS is in a mess (a good friend of mine is a senior accountant there so I am aware of a lot of the wastage) but lack of investment by the Tories is not one of them.

 

 

https://www.myhsn.co.uk/top-tip/how-much-does-the-nhs-cost

 

Perhaps a bigger spend on healthcare and less diversity offers on huge salaries could help.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11999319/Another-450-000-wasted-woke-inclusion-diversity-officer-roles-month-alone.html

 

The following info is pre-covid:

As FactCheck found last year, health budgets grew at an average rate of 1.3 per cent a year between 2010 and 2016, compared to an average of 5.6 per cent a year between 1997 and 2010 under Labour.

Looking further back, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says that health spending growth under the first six years of Conservative rule was “substantially below” the historic average between 1955 and 2016, when budgets grew by 4.1 per cent a year.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-may-not-telling-the-whole-story-on-nhs-funding

[rickudon]

The Tories will loose the next election because they have failed. They have failed to deal with immigration, they have failed to support the NHS, they have impoverished University students, hardly anyone below the age of 30 can afford to buy a house (now or in the future), and have to pay astronomically high prices to rent even a single room. Only the rich will vote for them. Starmer just has to do nothing to get elected.

[goldenbrwn1]

On 12/14/2023 at 8:46 PM, rickudon said:

The Tories will loose the next election because they have failed. They have failed to deal with immigration, they have failed to support the NHS, they have impoverished University students, hardly anyone below the age of 30 can afford to buy a house (now or in the future), and have to pay astronomically high prices to rent even a single room. Only the rich will vote for them. Starmer just has to do nothing to get elected.

100% Him and Labour will mess it up. Hung parliament I reckon with Reform UK holding the keys to no 10…

[Seppius]

The problems the UK has faced/is facing, are the same for other countries all over Europe, if not the world.

 

[placeholder]

57 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

100% Him and Labour will mess it up. Hung parliament I reckon with Reform UK holding the keys to no 10…

Ya got some evidence to show that's a realistic expectation?

[billd766]

5 hours ago, Seppius said:

The problems the UK has faced/is facing, are the same for other countries all over Europe, if not the world.

 

Surely not every other country has a similar clump of bumbling inept jackasses as the Conservative party in the UK. Not that the Labour party is much better either.

[billd766]

This month I was reregistered as a UK voter. I have my friends daughter as my proxy and postal voter.

 

I can only vote in national elections and the registration has to be renewed each year.

[goldenbrwn1]

20 hours ago, placeholder said:

Ya got some evidence to show that's a realistic expectation?

Yep my mate works for the CIA, MI6/5 and Mossad ,he told me so. You got any evidence at all about anything, any certainties in politics , I’m all ears mate👍

[placeholder]

12 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

Yep my mate works for the CIA, MI6/5 and Mossad ,he told me so. You got any evidence at all about anything, any certainties in politics , I’m all ears mate👍

You familiar with the concept of "probability"?