Investors plight.

[noobexpat]

2 hours ago, save the frogs said:

 

the average person who has a job and thinks he can get rich on the side in the stock market is fooling themselves. 

 

Hello ...what would you like to know?

 

[ChrisP24]

On 12/18/2023 at 9:23 AM, swissie said:

It's always the same:

If an investment goes well, I regret that I have only invested so little in it. (leading to self flagellation for days).

If an investment goes not so well, I regret that I invested so much in it. (Leading to self flagellation for days).

With the result that I have reason to self-flagellate constantly. My back is always full of scars. My Doctor does not belive my "investment story". He says that I and my lady are not the only ones that like "kinky sex". Ahhhhhhh.....

 

Well, if it's kinky sex, you probably wish you'd had more of it.  And if it's abuse, you probably wish you'd had less of it.

 

Still can't win.......

[gamb00ler]

11 hours ago, sirineou said:

IMO You have a mistaken  idea of what a 'salesman is"

Can you tell me what product the "salesman", Buffett, is selling?  When someone buys BH shares it's the actual owner that gets the money, not Buffett.  Buffett does sell some BH shares but not a significant portion of the total volume.  The tug of war between buyers and sellers is what determines the market price, not Buffett.  BH's historical returns is what buyers are paying for, not Buffett's charm.

 

I would bet that on average the owners of BH shares are much more savvy than the average investor, so Buffett's charm/influence in that group is rather weak.  So, Buffet's "salesman" effect has little value.  To quote Joe Friday, "Just the facts, ma'am".

[sirineou]

11 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Can you tell me what product the "salesman", Buffett, is selling? 

Himself . 

 

11 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

I would bet that on average the owners of BH shares are much more savvy than the average investor, so Buffett's charm/influence in that group is rather weak.  So, Buffet's "salesman" effect has little value.  To quote Joe Friday, "Just the facts, ma'am".

I don't see why BH investor would be any more "savvy" than the average investor. What make you think that?

And as I said , it is not "charm" . No serious investor (BH or otherwise)  bases it's investment decisions on "Charm" , but his branding has positioned him as someone whose investment style and ethos, aligns with those who chose to work with him. 

Anyway, Happy holidays 

[gamb00ler]

11 hours ago, sirineou said:

Himself . 

 

I don't see why BH investor would be any more "savvy" than the average investor. What make you think that?

And as I said , it is not "charm" . No serious investor (BH or otherwise)  bases it's investment decisions on "Charm" , but his branding has positioned him as someone whose investment style and ethos, aligns with those who chose to work with him. 

Anyway, Happy holidays 

 

[sirineou]

12 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

 

Not sure why you posted a list of BH investors, but thank you. 

[swissie]

On 12/21/2023 at 12:25 AM, Mike Lister said:

Anybody care to crystal ball gaze and anticipate how and when this current surge will end? 

 

I was playing a defensive game, which I suspect many others were also, the current upturn took me by surprise because there's been so many bull traps in the past year. Yet all the market commentators have revised their year end targets for the S&P, most to over 5,000 (it's 4,700 currently and down 1.5% overnight). I think 5,200 is fantasy, valuations were already very high. I suspect the markets are oversold and will fall back, there's no justification for 5,200, even if rates do start to fall at start 2Q.

 

All the economic forecasts are that Asian countries GDP will outstrip those in the West plus Chinese shares are very cheap right now, that will certainly change at some point.

Quote;"All the economic forecasts are that Asian countries GDP will outstrip those in the West plus Chinese shares are very cheap right now, that will certainly change at some point".

 

Let's focus in on China. China is confronted with some internal (temporary) problems. = A growth rate of less than 5% seems to alarm "investment advisors". (Most developped Economies in the West can only dream of such growth rates).

Let's apply the "measuring stick" in form of the P/E Ratio. US = around 21. China = around 8.

China is cheap! China will not stop being the economical powerhouse of the world.
Food for thaught.

[Mike Lister]

3 hours ago, swissie said:

Quote;"All the economic forecasts are that Asian countries GDP will outstrip those in the West plus Chinese shares are very cheap right now, that will certainly change at some point".

 

Let's focus in on China. China is confronted with some internal (temporary) problems. = A growth rate of less than 5% seems to alarm "investment advisors". (Most developped Economies in the West can only dream of such growth rates).

Let's apply the "measuring stick" in form of the P/E Ratio. US = around 21. China = around 8.

China is cheap! China will not stop being the economical powerhouse of the world.
Food for thaught.

Yes, I agree, I didn't write what I did very  well!

 

China is cheap but more importantly, the US is very expensive, that imbalance can't remain as stark as it is forever, that doesn't necessarily mean that China will stop being cheap! Charlie Munger...."all leaves eventually fall to the ground".

[Mike Lister]

My take on the way things are shaping up is that Asian and EM markets could easily do very well next year. US markets are surging and small caps are up 10% on the month, that's a very positive sign that global contagion will spread to other markets as a result. What's also very positive is that the DI is down to 102 and is fast approaching par, that bodes well for Asian currencies, even if Western interest rates do have the edge because investors are getting out of cash in favor of better prospects elsewhere. The oil price is stable at a decent level, even if the Red Sea issue does complicate the exports picture somewhat. The global conflicts picture is still messy but many appear to be in the last third of their run rather than the first third. The US elections is also wildcard but increasingly, Americans appear to be seeing a win win alternative in Nicky Hailey. El Nino may well throw some curve balls this year, that could be a game changer for some. I am currently invested 53% in US, 20% in EU/UK, 21% Asia Dev and EM and, 9% Japan......I may well increase my EM holdings next year.

[Mike Lister]

https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/stock-markets/sp-500-faces-valuation-wall-a-decade-long-bull-run-under-scrutiny/

 

A decent article that certainly sums up my feelings, 

 

"As the S&P 500 inches towards new record highs, there is a sense of anticipation mixed with foreboding among investors".

 

I've made a good profit, especially in the the closing stages of the year and I'm comforted that I didn't make more by the thought that most of Wall Street got burned and missed the bulk of the rally. Still, valuations are sky high and as everyone can see, there is a wall in front of us all. Could it really be different this time? Nah. of course not! But who will be brave enough to cash in and run the risk of getting burned, again? 'tis human nature, is it not. I believe what I will do is I will not increase my equities position, 47% seems plenty high enough for now. But I might reduce my money market holdings and put some more long dated Treasuries, that seems reliable and safe, even if it doesn't maximise profit. 

 

[swissie]

On 12/30/2023 at 1:50 AM, Mike Lister said:

https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/stock-markets/sp-500-faces-valuation-wall-a-decade-long-bull-run-under-scrutiny/

 

A decent article that certainly sums up my feelings, 

 

"As the S&P 500 inches towards new record highs, there is a sense of anticipation mixed with foreboding among investors".

 

I've made a good profit, especially in the the closing stages of the year and I'm comforted that I didn't make more by the thought that most of Wall Street got burned and missed the bulk of the rally. Still, valuations are sky high and as everyone can see, there is a wall in front of us all. Could it really be different this time? Nah. of course not! But who will be brave enough to cash in and run the risk of getting burned, again? 'tis human nature, is it not. I believe what I will do is I will not increase my equities position, 47% seems plenty high enough for now. But I might reduce my money market holdings and put some more long dated Treasuries, that seems reliable and safe, even if it doesn't maximise profit. 

 

Going into the new year, a few thoughts are going thru my head. It seems to me, all the possible good news are already incorporated in US stock prices. = (A "soft landing" very likely, interest rates very likely coming down, the assumption that a certain candidate will not be elected president, increasing geo-political tensions "don't matter much").

So I wonder what unknown good news can come into play to further "feed the bull"?

Will buy some "insurance" in form of out of the money S&P puts. Just in case if even one of the "pillars" that have upheld/driven the recent bull market starts to show some cracks. 

[Mike Lister]

22 minutes ago, swissie said:

Going into the new year, a few thoughts are going thru my head. It seems to me, all the possible good news are already incorporated in US stock prices. = (A "soft landing" very likely, interest rates very likely coming down, the assumption that a certain candidate will not be elected president, increasing geo-political tensions "don't matter much").

So I wonder what unknown good news can come into play to further "feed the bull"?

Will buy some "insurance" in form of out of the money S&P puts. Just in case if even one of the "pillars" that have upheld/driven the recent bull market starts to show some cracks. 

I think the story going forward remains valuations, do we really think the collective P/E can keep pushing higher without consequence, it's all so fragile. I shall not increase my equities holdings and will remain at 47%. A global investment grade bond index looks increasingly useful and may work.

 

This is not a bad year end summary with a peak into 2024, it shows the extent of the division between the major players.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-closed-2023-near-record-highs-heres-what-wall-street-thinks-is-coming-in-2024-124134109.html

Edited December 31, 2023 by Mike Lister

[soi3eddie]

On 12/20/2023 at 11:25 PM, Mike Lister said:

All the economic forecasts are that Asian countries GDP will outstrip those in the West plus Chinese shares are very cheap right now, that will certainly change at some point.

Seen the issues with China and would not invest anything Chinese right now. As a contra, I saw the potential in India. Since starting dripping monthly into an ETF of Indian stocks in November 2022 up a solid 22%. Hardly stellar, but good for the long term. Waiting for Bitcoin ETF in January and will invest there for longer term once Bitcoin spot has fallen back to $32,000 after all the noise has died down.

 

[CaptainPeacock]

On 12/19/2023 at 1:44 AM, swissie said:

Basically I agree. But lo and behold, there is an "investment-industry", telling investors what to do with their money. 10 thousand of "investment advisors" in the city of London, on Wall street etc etc etc.

 

Comes to mind: "Look at all the yachts of investment advisers. But where are the yachts of their customers?"

 

 imo, 99.9% of these "investment/financial advisors" know SH*T!

 

YOU only have to read 3 good investment books and you will know MORE than the above MORONS!

 

cos if they did know about the markets... WHY are they working ?

 

ONLY 1 reason -> TO RIP YOU off with their fees, as you point out:

 

"Look at all the yachts of investment advisers. But where are the yachts of their customers?"

 

RANT OVER!

[noobexpat]

41 minutes ago, CaptainPeacock said:

 

 imo, 99.9% of these "investment/financial advisors" know SH*T!

 

YOU only have to read 3 good investment books and you will know MORE than the above MORONS!

 

cos if they did know about the markets... WHY are they working ?

 

ONLY 1 reason -> TO RIP YOU off with their fees, as you point out:

 

"Look at all the yachts of investment advisers. But where are the yachts of their customers?"

 

RANT OVER!

 

The only thing that books can give you is the principle behind investing. Isn’t that the simple bit - put a lot in and leave it a long time.

 

Why do we still work ...because we want 2 yachts, of course