Thailand eyes pre-pandemic tourism levels by 2024, revamps VAT refund process

[madmitch]

I've heard the restaurants, massage shops, bars and other tourist-driven places in Phuket are all quieter than last year.

 

Air fares are around 50% higher than they were pre-pandemic and hotel prices are up due to inflation and the increased electricity, water and staff costs, so it's no real surprise.

[spidermike007]

42 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

I have been out today, I spoke with some Stall Holders in Mike Shopping Mall and The Night bazaar, they all said the same very quiet including on an evening.

 

Bar owners must be expecting plane loads of tourists as they are now adding more bars to Made In Thailand.

 

2019 was a one off with numbers made up by the Chinese, their economy has slumped therefore the tourists numbers from China will be down.

Europeans, looking at the flight prices they have not decreased by much and Thailand forgets many countries have economies which are in recession.

And in the past, the time between Dec. 15th and Jan. 10th, were the busiest of the year, and most resorts had 100% occupancy. Not even close, this time around. Last year I went to Samui during absolute peak season, on a last minute whim. I looked up hotel bookings and was surprised to find a lot of hotels were available and the prices were relatively low. That's never happened before in peak season, where Samui used to enjoy occupancy rates well over 90%. I don't expect it to be that much better this year, than last. Or next year either.

And the secondary factor is that Thailand is no longer attracting that many people from the West, and the vast majority of tourists are now Chinese, Russian, Malaysian, Indian, and Arab, and I don't think very many of them are wealthy. So, the industry continues to hurt. Thailand is no longer attracting very many Western tourists for a dozen very good reasons. Right now it is predominantly Malaysian, Indian, Arab, Chinese, and Russian. One could argue that these are relatively low quality tourists, in terms of the amounts of money that they spend. Sure you have a few wealthy Russians and some wealthy Chinese, but most are lower to middle income and don't spend alot.

This process will not be reversed until the authorities wake up and make some sacrifices such as lowering luxury taxes, lowering wine taxes, cleaning up the air, making the highways safer, allowing more private air travel, helicopter travel, high-speed trains and alternatives to the totally choked and extremely hazardous highways.

[CartagenaWarlock]

52 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

t is the 'system' that produces unwalkable footpaths, massive holes in roads, and unending poverty for 50% or more of the population.

But people still come here because home countries do not provide a decent living for many people, and it is impossible to find a much younger companion in their home land.

[blazes]

1 minute ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

But people still come here because home countries do not provide a decent living for many people, and it is impossible to find a much younger companion in their home land.

 

5555  It's always  been impossible (undesirable, even) to find a  "much younger  companion" in the frigid West.  Frankly,  I wonder if Western males any longer know how to approach  a  woman - of any race, anywhere - (except of course the hardy warriors typing here).

[Mike Lister]

25 minutes ago, madmitch said:

I've heard the restaurants, massage shops, bars and other tourist-driven places in Phuket are all quieter than last year.

 

Air fares are around 50% higher than they were pre-pandemic and hotel prices are up due to inflation and the increased electricity, water and staff costs, so it's no real surprise.

I know that long haul prices are up substantially but I hear that short haul prices are very similar to pre-covid. That fits with the profile of international arrivals which is heavily Asia based....but there again it always has been. Hotels seem to want to play catch up and recoup losses more quickly than is sensible but that's the Thai way!

[sambum]

"In addition to this, the Finance Ministry is considering reducing the beverage tax on imported and local wines, spirits, and beers"

 

They've been "considering it" for as long as I can remember - quite a few years!!! 

Edited December 21, 2023 by sambum

[Sluglord]

There are no tourists here.

 

I met a friend down on Sukhumvit for beers. It looked like any night low season.

 

Made my extension early December. CW was practically a ghost town from what I know of it historically. Never have I seen so few people.

 

The number of tourists on Ratchada corridor is insignificant outside of Sukhumvit MRT

 

Traveling south from Sai Mai this evening. Number of tourists have dropped pre COVID. COVID period was disaster, never rebounded. Last year few farang, even fewer this year. I've seen half dozen and very few Thai as well. Shops closed. Even the 7 upper level closed.

 

I don't think they have a clue OR this is just all blah blah to keep the money flowing into ministries and TAT to spend (waste). Yeah, will busy up tomorrow night but it could be 2am but it's 6pm.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sluglord

[sambum]

4 hours ago, BestB said:

May be only to me , but this high season does not look very high, hotels still have plenty of rooms and streets are not full of people.

 

so to me looks like numbers are down from last year but the big heads seem to think numbers are growing 

No, the big heads want you to think that numbers are growing - in the same way as a few years ago when TAT came out with some ridiculous stats re the tourist intake. When someone from a well known tourist area said "Well, where are they all, then?" the answer was given as "They are all in the country experiencing life in the proper Thailand"!  

[Mywayboy]

TAT òfficials have been visiting far to many weed shops truly delusional .

Yer dreamin son.

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, sambum said:

"In addition to this, the Finance Ministry is considering reducing the beverage tax on imported and local wines, spirits, and beers"

 

 

I never got a taste for local beers. They're cheap, but IMHO awful. And the local "wine" is basically grape- or fruit juice. Happy partying with terrible beer and fruit juice... LOL

 

No, unless prices of imported alcoholic beverages drop significantly, and the quality improves, don't expect me to spend much on them while in Thailand. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, sambum said:

When someone from a well known tourist area said "Well, where are they all, then?" the answer was given as "They are all in the country experiencing life in the proper Thailand"! 

 

Yes, according to the TAT, they were all at the temples...

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, Sluglord said:

Traveling south from Sai Mai this evening. Number of tourists have dropped pre COVID. COVID period was disaster, never rebounded. Last year few farang, even fewer this year. I've seen half dozen and very few Thai as well. Shops closed. Even the 7 upper level closed.

 

I saw way more Western tourists, be it in Bangkok, Pattaya, or Phuket, more than 20 years ago... Their numbers (judging from own observations) seem to have steadily decreased. Yes, nominally there may be more now, but they tend to stay for much shorter holidays these days. Last time I went to Pattaya, there seemed to be, with the exception of middle-aged Russian tourists, few genuine Western tourists, but mostly elderly male expats.

Edited December 21, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[Jiggo]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And in the past, the time between Dec. 15th and Jan. 10th, were the busiest of the year, and most resorts had 100% occupancy. Not even close, this time around. Last year I went to Samui during absolute peak season, on a last minute whim. I looked up hotel bookings and was surprised to find a lot of hotels were available and the prices were relatively low. That's never happened before in peak season, where Samui used to enjoy occupancy rates well over 90%. I don't expect it to be that much better this year, than last. Or next year either.

And the secondary factor is that Thailand is no longer attracting that many people from the West, and the vast majority of tourists are now Chinese, Russian, Malaysian, Indian, and Arab, and I don't think very many of them are wealthy. So, the industry continues to hurt. Thailand is no longer attracting very many Western tourists for a dozen very good reasons. Right now it is predominantly Malaysian, Indian, Arab, Chinese, and Russian. One could argue that these are relatively low quality tourists, in terms of the amounts of money that they spend. Sure you have a few wealthy Russians and some wealthy Chinese, but most are lower to middle income and don't spend alot.

This process will not be reversed until the authorities wake up and make some sacrifices such as lowering luxury taxes, lowering wine taxes, cleaning up the air, making the highways safer, allowing more private air travel, helicopter travel, high-speed trains and alternatives to the totally choked and extremely hazardous highways.

And add I should think the abundance of cannabis shops helps, specially with families and those you do not indulge, should be confined to certain areas.

[neeray]

And I'm eyeing a 25 million dollar lottery win.

[Woke to Sounds of Horking]

Will be arriving next month, ready to spend some well earned shekels. Am curious to see just how many Western tourists are out and about. First journey around Thailand was 2008....eons ago in this post Corvid world of crazy.  Doesn't help tourism that there's no 90 day exemption for Americans / Europeans / Oceaneans. Whether I visit Chiang Mai -- and spend $$, listen up TAT -- is wholly dependant on the air quality up there. Couldn't care less about the tax on wine, double pricing at monuments, etc. Air quality is the big one.

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, Sluglord said:

Made my extension early December. CW was practically a ghost town from what I know of it historically. Never have I seen so few people.

Did mine mid December and Pattaya immigration was swamped.... the streets in town seem to be too. Could well be a lot more locals who do not frequent the same nightlife.

[Mike Lister]

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And what do the numbers actually mean? How many are expats going back and forth? Does it include Burmese, Cambodian and Malaysian tourists and workers? Does it include business travel? How many affluent travelers and how many young backpackers? Such an extreme lack of information within these numbers the desperate TAT and administration trots out. No improvements or sacrifices were made. Nothing appears to have been learned. 
 

We can probably argue all day about what the numbers comprise and whether daily workers are included, along with Fred's weekly visit for shopping, indeed, we have for many years! The point is that regardless of what the numbers contain, they have been formulated the same way since day one hence nothing has changed, todays numbers can be compared equally with last years numbers because both sets count the same things, in the same way.  Does anyone really care if the total is not actually 27 million, because one or two million extra people were counted who weren't genuine, bonafide tourists? Personally, as much as everyone likes to beat on TAT and Immi., perhaps the two most most expat cherished organisations in Thailand, we have to give them credit for getting some of the basics right and for recording the difference between a day traders cross border visit and some backpacker from Ohio on his gap year.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

We can probably argue all day about what the numbers comprise and whether daily workers are included, along with Fred's weekly visit for shopping, indeed, we have for many years! The point is that regardless of what the numbers contain, they have been formulated the same way since day one hence nothing has changed, todays numbers can be compared equally with last years numbers because both sets count the same things, in the same way.  Does anyone really care if the total is not actually 27 million, because one or two million extra people were counted who weren't genuine, bonafide tourists? Personally, as much as everyone likes to beat on TAT and Immi., perhaps the two most most expat cherished organisations in Thailand, we have to give them credit for getting some of the basics right and for recording the difference between a day traders cross border visit and some backpacker from Ohio on his gap year.

     Exactly.  The counting method hasn't changed so it is quite valid to compare one year to another.  It's easy to see, for example, that there was a dip in tourists in 2014, the year of the coup.  I've posted this a number of times but it just falls on deaf ears--posters don't want to hear anything that does not fit their narratives and perceptions.  

      It's the same with western tourist numbers.  Some posters are of the belief that western tourist numbers were dropping drastically in the years before covid.  Also not true.  From 2015 to 2019 the numbers rose for every western country tracked except Australia, which did drop slightly.  American visitors were up 34% in that period.   UK about 6%.  Posters do not want to hear this--they will always maintain the numbers were way down because they talked to so and so and he said his bar was not doing that well.   Well, there you go--no need to look any further--they've gotten the scoop from so and so.

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Will be arriving next month, ready to spend some well earned shekels. Am curious to see just how many Western tourists are out and about. First journey around Thailand was 2008....eons ago in this post Corvid world of crazy.  Doesn't help tourism that there's no 90 day exemption for Americans / Europeans / Oceaneans. Whether I visit Chiang Mai -- and spend $$, listen up TAT -- is wholly dependant on the air quality up there. Couldn't care less about the tax on wine, double pricing at monuments, etc. Air quality is the big one.

 

Very few. Over the years the Western tourists have declined, replaced by Russians, Chinese, Malaysians, Indians and Arabs. That seems to be 96% of what you have here now, and they appear to be mostly lower to middle income. 

[newnative]

15 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Very few. Over the years the Western tourists have declined, replaced by Russians, Chinese, Malaysians, Indians and Arabs. That seems to be 96% of what you have here now, and they appear to be mostly lower to middle income. 

Wow, the ink was hardly dry on my post.  For the record:

 It's the same with western tourist numbers.  Some posters are of the belief that western tourist numbers were dropping drastically in the years before covid.  Also not true.  From 2015 to 2019 the numbers rose for every western country tracked except Australia, which did drop slightly.  American visitors were up 34% in that period.   UK about 6%.  Posters do not want to hear this--they will always maintain the numbers were way down because they talked to so and so and he said his bar was not doing that well.   Well, there you go--no need to look any further--they've gotten the scoop from so and so.

[Mike Lister]

Until somebody posts a link to a reliable source showing visitors by region by year, it's all blah blah and pointless. I'll see what I can find when I get home.

 

[newnative]

32 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Until somebody posts a link to a reliable source showing visitors by region by year, it's all blah blah and pointless. I'll see what I can find when I get home.

 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourists-nationalities-Thailand.asp  A slight correction to my earlier post.  UK tourists were up around 5% rather than 6% from 2015 to 2019.

[Mike Lister]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourists-nationalities-Thailand.asp  A slight correction to my earlier post.  UK tourists were up around 5% rather than 6% from 2015 to 2019.

Thanks, you saved me the effort.

[rumeaug]

Hummm...alright...in the meantime Paris welcomed more then 30M overseas tourists in the same year. Go figure...

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, newnative said:

Wow, the ink was hardly dry on my post.  For the record:

 It's the same with western tourist numbers.  Some posters are of the belief that western tourist numbers were dropping drastically in the years before covid.  Also not true.  From 2015 to 2019 the numbers rose for every western country tracked except Australia, which did drop slightly.  American visitors were up 34% in that period.   UK about 6%.  Posters do not want to hear this--they will always maintain the numbers were way down because they talked to so and so and he said his bar was not doing that well.   Well, there you go--no need to look any further--they've gotten the scoop from so and so.

Some believe everything they read. What was the source? How trustworthy are they? Are they in any way affiliated with the government, and if so do you really trust the Thai army for truth?

 

I would prefer to believe my eyes, the hotel owners I speak with, and the other retailers who have been saying the opposite for years before covid readed it's ugly head.

[kinyara]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Some believe everything they read. What was the source? How trustworthy are they? Are they in any way affiliated with the government, and if so do you really trust the Thai army for truth?

 

I would prefer to believe my eyes, the hotel owners I speak with, and the other retailers who have been saying the opposite for years before covid readed it's ugly head.

 

You're in denial because the historical figures don't support all the personal and political complaints you have about the country. The idea that somehow the authorities go to the bother of altering arrival numbers monthly from over 100 countries for the last 20 years to fool a few disgruntled foreigners is the stuff of a deranged conspiracy theorist. Why don't they just add in a couple of million ficticious Chinese arrivals to make themselves look better rather than reporting the large shortfall currently being acknowledged ?

[Mike Lister]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Some believe everything they read. What was the source? How trustworthy are they? Are they in any way affiliated with the government, and if so do you really trust the Thai army for truth?

 

I would prefer to believe my eyes, the hotel owners I speak with, and the other retailers who have been saying the opposite for years before covid readed it's ugly head.

So you believe anecdotal evidence based on a sample of less than ten rather than collated stats produced by the government? That speaks volumes about you matey, if I felt that way I wouldn't be able to live here.

[newnative]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Some believe everything they read. What was the source? How trustworthy are they? Are they in any way affiliated with the government, and if so do you really trust the Thai army for truth?

 

I would prefer to believe my eyes, the hotel owners I speak with, and the other retailers who have been saying the opposite for years before covid readed it's ugly head.

      My source is official statistics.  As I have said many times, and another has just said on this thread, they report the good and the bad.  In 2021, they had to report international tourist arrivals of just 427,869.  Can you imagine!  Did not even reach a half million!  For the whole year!  How bad did that make them look?  Couldn't they have found a few more here and there--or made them up--to make them look better?   Yet, there it is, 427,869, for all to see.

     In 2014, the international arrivals dropped from the year before.  Why?  Because the coup happened and it kept international tourists away.  Embarrassing for the coup leaders.  The figures could have easily been juggled to make the coup leaders look good and gain some favor with them.  Did that happen?  No.  There's the embarrassing drop in numbers, for all to see. 

       You may 'prefer to believe' your eyes and a hotel owner you 'speak with' but it's ludicrous to make your warped pronouncements based on such small and unreliable information.  You remind me of the deluded poster who recently posted a thread saying that 95% of the crime in Thailand happens in Pattaya.  When I called him on it and asked him to produce statistics, he said he had none, but, instead, it was his feeling that the figure was 95% based on his reading of Asean Now.  I'm afraid you're methodology is just as suspect.  

[Sig]

I suppose anything is possible, but they're really pushing the envelop with that one!

[Mike Lister]

13 minutes ago, Sig said:

I suppose anything is possible, but they're really pushing the envelop with that one!

90% of 39 mill, so they're looking at 35 mill in 2024, seems doable to me given the increase this year over last year 11 mill was substantial