Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, stevenl said:

The moment Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory the war is over. It's Russia prolonging the war.

That applies to every war ever happened, LOL.

There is another one some distance away that would stop if the invading army withdrew, but the opinion on that by some on here is 180 degrees opposed.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

"He also acknowledged that a return of all Ukrainian land was not necessarily a pre-condition for the fighting to end, as far as he saw it."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clmy1nkm51jo

Oh my my my, how impending defeat changes ones determination to continue on to the bitter end ( on the bodies of other people, of course ).

[Danderman123]

17 hours ago, tgw said:

 

It seems the jury is still out on this

 

 

You are correct, the pocket in Vovchansk is still there, but only a few dozen Russian soldiers are still there, hiding in underground chambers.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh my my my, how impending defeat changes ones determination to continue on to the bitter end ( on the bodies of other people, of course ).

Oh my my my, how impending defeat

 

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

 

Putin Preparing Russians for 10 Years of Ukraine War: ISW

The ISW said Medvedev's suggestion that Russia will be able to "destroy Ukraine" by 2034 is "a promise to the Russian public that Russia will be able to win the war and achieve its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade."

This narrative "sets careful information conditions and societal expectations for a war that will last another decade, but one that will end with Russia's desired 'victory,'" the think tank said.

It also undermines recent attempts by Kremlin officials to convey that Russia is open to holding peace talks with Ukraine to bring an end to the war, and "emphasizes that the Kremlin's only desired end-state for the war is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and people."

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-medvedev-ukraine-war-2034-isw-1926848

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

 

"However it concludes, we are going to have a very big Russia problem." Commander of US European Command, Cavoli, admits that a post-war Russia will feature a reconstituted military, retain the same leadership, identify NATO as it's enemy, and will be "very, very angry."

 

America tempted the jeopardization of European Security by extending NATO's hand to Ukraine.

Russia compromised European Security by invading Ukraine because of NATO

The West ensured European Security stays compromised for potentially generations through its war-hawkish response.

China ate popcorn, gathered data, and grew in power and influence with little effort expended.

 

Long China , Long Gold , Long War - short everything else.

 

    After a diligent inquiry, I can discern four principal causes of the ruin of Rome, which continued to operate in a period of more than a thousand years. I. The injuries of time and nature. II. The hostile attacks of the Barbarians and Christians. III. The use and abuse of the materials. And, IV. The domestic quarrels of the Romans.
    — Edward Gibbon. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Chapter 71 "Four Causes of Decay and Destruction."

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh my my my, how impending defeat

 

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

 

Putin Preparing Russians for 10 Years of Ukraine War: ISW

The ISW said Medvedev's suggestion that Russia will be able to "destroy Ukraine" by 2034 is "a promise to the Russian public that Russia will be able to win the war and achieve its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade."

This narrative "sets careful information conditions and societal expectations for a war that will last another decade, but one that will end with Russia's desired 'victory,'" the think tank said.

It also undermines recent attempts by Kremlin officials to convey that Russia is open to holding peace talks with Ukraine to bring an end to the war, and "emphasizes that the Kremlin's only desired end-state for the war is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and people."

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-medvedev-ukraine-war-2034-isw-1926848

 

 

 

Putin has cancer / Parkinson's  / months to live

The Russian economy / Rouble will collapse

There will be a coup

The Russians are running out of missiles/ammo/guns/tanks/planes/manpower/convicts

Ukrainian Wunderwaffe Leopard/Challies/M1 Abrams/HIMARS/ATCMS/F16s  - Ghosts of Kyiv's will change the course of the war - one more push. Summer in Crimea

hah - shovels/washing machines/toilets - the babarians live like rats in a sewer

 

Trump/Vance - "hold my beer"

 

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Putin has cancer / Parkinson's  / months to live

The Russian economy / Rouble will collapse

There will be a coup

The Russians are running out of missiles/ammo/guns/tanks/planes/manpower/convicts

Ukrainian Wunderwaffe Leopard/Challies/M1 Abrams/HIMARS/ATCMS/F16s  - Ghosts of Kyiv's will change the course of the war - one more push. Summer in Crimea

hah - shovels/washing machines/toilets - the babarians live like rats in a sewer

 

Trump/Vance - "hold my beer"

 

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

 

Feel free to quote me on that.

 

In the meantime it obvious you didn't read the article as its quoting Russian officials and media.

[Hummin]

8 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Putin has cancer / Parkinson's  / months to live

The Russian economy / Rouble will collapse

There will be a coup

The Russians are running out of missiles/ammo/guns/tanks/planes/manpower/convicts

Ukrainian Wunderwaffe Leopard/Challies/M1 Abrams/HIMARS/ATCMS/F16s  - Ghosts of Kyiv's will change the course of the war - one more push. Summer in Crimea

hah - shovels/washing machines/toilets - the babarians live like rats in a sewer

 

Trump/Vance - "hold my beer"

 

The same tired rhetoric you've been posting for over 2 years with predictions then that the topic would not last longer than a couple of weeks, will you be here in 10 years time posting the same?

 

 

We do not know future, but we know more people will die, hurt physically and mentally the longer this war continues.

 

As well Europe is closer to a larger scaled devasting war.

 

We all waiting for next election and if Trump takes the seat back, what will he do? One phone call he says? 

 

We know that most likely will involve Donbass and Crimea as a offer deal with the Russians. A war for nothing, god forbid

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[Rimmer]

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[beautifulthailand99]

Trump plans to weaponise US/European trade deals to get his "Peace Deal" over the line.

 

Nathalie Tocci, the director of Italy’s International Affairs Institute, said this week: “It is not necessarily clear that the political effect of a second Trump administration will have the same unifying impact on Europe as eight years ago. It is a far more politically fragile Europe.

“We have been having the Putin-Trump conversation for almost a year now. How are we going to coordinate ourselves? How are we going to avoid a rather unseemly show in which different Europeans flock to Washington to kiss the ring.

“Do we have a strategy? It is the kind of thing that does not require a lot of preparation. To the best of my knowledge, that is not there.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/20/european-divisions-risk-incoherent-response-to-any-second-trump-term

[tgw]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Putin has cancer / Parkinson's  / months to live

The Russian economy / Rouble will collapse

There will be a coup

The Russians are running out of missiles/ammo/guns/tanks/planes/manpower/convicts

Ukrainian Wunderwaffe Leopard/Challies/M1 Abrams/HIMARS/ATCMS/F16s  - Ghosts of Kyiv's will change the course of the war - one more push. Summer in Crimea

 

hope and prayers !

very much the same that Vance wants to use to "support" Ukraine.

[coolcarer]

The long haul preparations.

 

Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief

Europe must be prepared for a decade of Ukranian war, the outgoing secretary general of Nato has warned.
Speaking to the BBC, Jens Stoltenberg said the "paradox" of the war in Ukraine is the longer the western military alliance commits to fighting the war, the faster a resolution will be reached.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o

 

On Trump, Russia UN envoy says Ukraine war can't end in one day

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said on Monday that "the Ukrainian crisis cannot be solved in one day," when asked about U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's frequent claims that he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected. "I will have that war settled between Putin and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy as president-elect before I take office on January 20th. I'll have that war settled," Trump said last week during a debate against President Joe Biden, a Democrat. "I'll get it settled fast, before I take office."

https://archive.ph/r16S6

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-russia-un-envoy-says-ukraine-war-cant-end-one-day-2024-07-01/

[beautifulthailand99]

28 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

The long haul preparations.

 

Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief

Europe must be prepared for a decade of Ukranian war, the outgoing secretary general of Nato has warned.
Speaking to the BBC, Jens Stoltenberg said the "paradox" of the war in Ukraine is the longer the western military alliance commits to fighting the war, the faster a resolution will be reached.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o

 

On Trump, Russia UN envoy says Ukraine war can't end in one day

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said on Monday that "the Ukrainian crisis cannot be solved in one day," when asked about U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's frequent claims that he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected. "I will have that war settled between Putin and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy as president-elect before I take office on January 20th. I'll have that war settled," Trump said last week during a debate against President Joe Biden, a Democrat. "I'll get it settled fast, before I take office."

https://archive.ph/r16S6

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-russia-un-envoy-says-ukraine-war-cant-end-one-day-2024-07-01/

 

In response, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Reuters: "President Trump is the most effective statesman and negotiator in history, and he will solve this conflict when he is elected."😂

[beautifulthailand99]

The excellent Simon Jenkins nailing it as ever.

 

Non-military sanctions against Russia have failed. They have deterred no one, and have solidified Putin. They have punished western economies, cohered autocracies and cut Russia off from networks of persuasion or contact. Even the back channels so vital in the Cuban missile and Andropov crises have apparently weakened.

There is no evidence that Putin was ever seeking a hot war with the west. He made a terrible mistake in marching on Kyiv, one from which he needs somehow to be extricated. But when peace-making is so neglected an art – when it is now derided as appeasement – it is depressing that a British prime minister should be a cheerleader for war. Is Ukraine really to be Starmer’s Iraq?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/15/prime-minister-cheerleading-war-ukraine-starmer-iraq-nato

[illisdean]

Trump will sort it out expeditiously, ending the bloodshed AND ending the great USA-UA grift . Where's Biden on all this...probably calling Putin (remember puddin brains Biden introducing President Putin-Zelensky at NATO meeting) or maybe some dead people to talk some nonsensical word vomit perfected by Biden.

 

 

Trump speaks to UA Zelenskyy

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

China sending a powerful message as to where their sympathies lie.

 

Analysts say the military collaboration with Belarus in particular marks a new chapter in China's European foreign policy objectives.

"China has been very cautious and careful about extending military presence to Europe, or areas traditionally seen as close to NATO's core area," Sun wrote. "This joint exercise changes that. Given the timing, the exercise is evidently linked to the NATO summit in Washington that has Japanese and Korean participation. It is tit-for-tat."

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-signals-defiance-to-nato-with-military-drills-in-belarus-/7696140.html

 

 

[Hummin]

1 hour ago, illisdean said:

Trump will sort it out expeditiously, ending the bloodshed AND ending the great USA-UA grift . Where's Biden on all this...probably calling Putin (remember puddin brains Biden introducing President Putin-Zelensky at NATO meeting) or maybe some dead people to talk some nonsensical word vomit perfected by Biden.

 

 

Trump speaks to UA Zelenskyy

 

 

Thats Trump in a nutshell, he thinks he got a good phone call,  doubt Zelenskyj thinks the same. 

[beautifulthailand99]

9 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Thats Trump in a nutshell, he thinks he got a good phone call,  doubt Zelenskyj thinks the same. 

I think without doubt we can remove the doubt !

[0ffshore360]

56 minutes ago, illisdean said:

Trump will sort it out expeditiously, ending the bloodshed AND ending the great USA-UA grift . Where's Biden on all this...probably calling Putin (remember puddin brains Biden introducing President Putin-Zelensky at NATO meeting) or maybe some dead people to talk some nonsensical word vomit perfected by Biden.

 

 

Trump speaks to UA Zelenskyy

 

 

I can not but wonder if said call was only in the head of Trump ?

Whether it be or not the possibility Trump will somehow succeed in his attempt to institute himself as the first US Caesar it is that possibility that has provided incentives for allies or enemies to contemplate geopolitical repercussions other than would be expected.

Starmer has declared/reneged on conditions for Ukraine's utilization of weaponry.

Germany has announced lower limits of support to Ukraine.

The EU has definitively refused direct military assistance to Ukraine in cross border missile interception.

Zelensky has become demanding and petulant to the degree that, despite the perceived threat of territorial reduction, is of lesser concern to the overall considerations of European security than conceding to Putin's demands....conditionally.

There is a singular reality factor.

Russia has proliferate nuclear capacity.

If it came to war with NATO  the potential for probable global armageddon is undeniable. Russia would succumb along with everyone.

At that point who is responsible becomes irrelevant.

NATO has become an instrument  beyond original  relevant purpose.

Brinkmanship.

Place bets on which version of Domination you consider has the biggest  gonads  !

 

 

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

7 minutes ago, 0ffshore360 said:

I can not but wonder if said call was only in the head of Trump ?

Whether it be or not the possibility Trump will somehow succeed in his attempt to institute himself as the first US Caesar it is that possibility that has provided incentives for allies or enemies to contemplate geopolitical repercussions other than would be expected.

Starmer has declared/reneged on conditions for Ukraine's utilization of weaponry.

Germany has announced lower limits of support to Ukraine.

The EU has definitively refused direct military assistance to Ukraine in cross border missile interception.

Zelensky has become demanding and petulant to the degree that, despite the perceived threat of territorial reduction, is of lesser concern to the overall considerations of European security than conceding to Putin's demands....conditionally.

There is a singular reality factor.

Russia has proliferate nuclear capacity.

If it came to war with NATO  the potential for probable global armageddon is undeniable. Russia would succumb along with everyone.

At that point who is responsible becomes irrelevant.

NATO has become an instrument  beyond original  relevant purpose.

Brinkmanship.

Place bets on which version of Domination you consider has the biggest  gonads  !

 

 

 

 

Meloni let slip last year in that prank call that Europe wants to wind this up despite all their posturing and front of house statements even Zelenskiy is softening his never negotiate stand. Trump winning changes that dynamic drastically and will shatter this fragile European unity should it even exist. He will create the conditions and excuses for an off ramp which will be taken. Whether Ukraine ever recovers and attracts it's lost citizens and investment in reconstruction back is a moot point. Ending the war also gives Zelenskiy his own personal exit strategy - he is tired and increasingly paranoid. He has done more than enough to earn his place in history but the recalcitrant battle hardened extreme nationalist forces armed and angry at the sell out will be the domninant narrative in that landscape should it occur.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/01/italy-giorgia-meloni-prank-call-russia-ukraine-war

 

“There is a lot of tiredness on all sides,” Meloni is heard saying regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. “The moment is approaching when everyone will understand that we need a way out.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/being-volodymyr-zelenskiy-how-war-has-changed-ukraines-leader-2024-07-12/

 

At the same time, Zelenskiy has grown increasingly "paranoid" about suspected Russian attempts to assassinate him and destabilise Ukraine's leadership, according to a senior European official who has held talks with the leader. "And rightly so," the official added.

 

 

[illisdean]

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

doubt Zelenskyj thinks the same.

He will do what Trump says, until Trump cuts off funding to the corrupt comedian Zelensky.

[kwonitoy]

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Good for him - he realises that continuing this dreadful war benefits no-one but the arms industries. The maximalist "not a single inch of territory" blowhards will have to keep their views to themselves and welcome peace and ultimately Ukrainains can hold their heads high and realise they were led down the garden path by the US and their proxies for an end that was never and never would be, in their best interests.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/world-must-pressure-russia-to-negotiating-table-zelensky-says/

 

With the support of partners, Ukraine could try to end the hot stage of the war with Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18.

"I believe that if we are united and follow, for example, the format of the peace summit, we can end the hot stage of the war. We can try to do it by the end of this year," Zelensky said.

While promising that such a "plan will be ready," the president did not disclose any practical details on what it could entail.

[beautifulthailand99]

This play says you mess with our refineries well we will use our proxies to hit your tankers and send oil to the moon - guarantee a Trump win , trash your economies and show you what FAFO means.

 

According to WSJ, the US is trying to stop Russia from arming the Houthis with anti-ship missiles, a retaliation for Ukraine striking inside Russia with American weapons.

 

A couple of weeks ago Putin said “If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those countries?” .

 

“The Houthis have the most robust antiship capabilities among Iran’s regional proxy network,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. “But Russian antiship weapons would represent a qualitative leap and add more teeth to the existing Houthi maritime threat.”
Middle East Eye, a London-based news site, reported last month that Russia has previously considered providing antiship cruise missiles to the Houthis but was talked out of doing so by the Saudis.
Since then, U.S. officials have seen continuing indications that Putin might yet provide the missiles.

 

https://archive.ph/2024.07.20-124309/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-launches-effort-to-stop-russia-from-arming-houthis-with-antiship-missiles-98131a8a

 

 

 

[RayC]

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That applies to every war ever happened, LOL.

There is another one some distance away that would stop if the invading army withdrew, but the opinion on that by some on here is 180 degrees opposed.

 

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh my my my, how impending defeat changes ones determination to continue on to the bitter end ( on the bodies of other people, of course ).

 

Pitiful and distasteful attempts at justifying Putin's aggression.

[beautifulthailand99]

A long and interesting read from Lawrence Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College, London) in his latest substack he charts the story of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. There's probably nothing we haven't already seen piecemeal, but the strands are brought together, namely: the 2022 negotiations, the following steps by Ukraine and Russia, Orban's peace mission and the implications of Trump becoming US President.

 

https://samf.substack.com/p/irreconcilable-differences?utm_source=substack&publication_id=631422&post_id=146786251&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=45w57p&triedRedirect=true

 

Then Orban and this the back channels are opening - do I smell peace - let's hope so ?

 

The Russian Telegram channel Gosdumskaya, which claims to have high-level sources in the Kremlin, said: “I will now tell you the real reason for Kolokoltsev’s flight to the US. Kolokoltsev was instructed to convey the ‘Russian peace plan,’ developed personally by Putin, and currently considered by him as the only option for ending the war.”
The Ukrainian TV journalist Dmitry Gordon said much the same on TikTok, claiming to have received details of the plan from his [unspecified] “intelligence sources.”

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35302

 

What is in “the peace plan?”

 

Crimea – is to remain as part of the Russian Federation although there is one version that suggests Putin is prepared to accept the Peninsula to become a “specially demilitarized administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and the Russian Federation.” Ukraine is also to sign a legally binding international agreement not to block supplies of water to Crimea.

 

Donbas – Ukraine to completely cede the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to Russia in return for which:

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions – Russia would be “prepared to discuss” the possible transfer of control to Ukraine, to include the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Enerhodar.

 

Demilitarized zone – this would be a 100 kilometer (62 mile) wide corridor that would follow the line of the Dnipro River and be controlled by Ukraine.

 

Non-aligned status – Ukraine would give up its NATO aspirations but would be free to join the EU.

 

Armed Forces – the size of Kyiv’s armed forces would be limited to 150,000 (according to Gosdumskaya) or 350,000 (Gordon’s version).

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Hummin said:

A war for nothing, god forbid

We've been there more than once in my lifetime.

Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, IMO all based on lies, and continued far too long. Now lost to the enemy and all those lives and all that treasure lost for nothing.

 

IMO can add Ukraine to that list.

[beautifulthailand99]

Blimey I read the British Army forum on a daily basis a more battle hardened pro-Ukraine forum you could never meet. It's all Orcs and Mordor and high level optimism but they have turned and they don't tolerate faint hearts lightly. I Haven't seen that before. It's pretty much over now.

 

https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/war-in-ukraine.304396/page-15448

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

In response, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Reuters: "President Trump is the most effective statesman and negotiator in history, and he will solve this conflict when he is elected."😂

I don't know about "in history", but he's so effective that despite not even being in power, western leaders are already freaking out at the mere possibility of him becoming POTUS.