Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68273449.amp

 

Europe will need 10 years before it is fully ready to defend itself, the boss of Germany's biggest defence firm, Rheinmetall, told the BBC.

Armin Papperger said that ammunition stocks are currently "empty".

Just as well then that Russia is out of ammunition and missiles, out of men, out of tanks etc.

 

LOL, of course that is just sarcasm, but it's what we've been told for the past 2 years on here.

Oh dear, have certain politicians been believing their own propaganda?

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just as well then that Russia is out of ammunition and missiles, out of men, out of tanks etc.

 

LOL, of course that is just sarcasm, but it's what we've been told for the past 2 years on here.

Oh dear, have certain politicians been believing their own propaganda?

 The "fight until victory" crowd if they truly beleive that scare me almost as much as Putin's feral cunning and cruelty. Both positions embrace huge amounts of more suffering which at this stage of this tragic conflict benefits no-one except perversely US interests. The RAND Corporation in their excellent report Avoding a Long War explicitly laid this out way back when and it remains truer now then ever before. Particuarly so as western inventories are bascially empty and Russia has survived an epochal pivot away from the west and gone on a near total war footing. These are known knowns now as Iraqi friend Donald Rumsfeld said as he was selling chemical weapons to Saddam way back when degrading Iran was a prime foreign policy consideration.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

 

A long war would also maintain pressure on European governments to continue to reduce energy dependence on Russia and spend more on their defense, possibly lessening the U.S. defense burden in Europe over the long run. Here too, however, it is likely that European countries will maintain these policies regardless of how much longer the war lasts.

 

Yet there are significant downsides of a long war for U.S. interests (Table 4). A longer war will lead to further loss of life, displacement, and suffering for Ukrainian civilians; minimizing these humanitarian consequences for Ukraine is a U.S. interest. Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022. Moscow's mobilization might stabilize the lines as of December 2022 and allow Russia to launch offensives in 2023. The intensity of the military assistance effort could also become unsustainable after a certain period. Already, European and some U.S. stocks of weapons are reportedly running low.[23] There is thus reason to question whether a longer war will lead to further Ukrainian gains—losses are possible too.

[beautifulthailand99]

As Harry Hill would say often after the Badger Parade "fight!". In the 90s the U.S. was truly the king of the world, no one was even close. Russia was in shambles, Japan was yesterday’s news, China was no where near what it would become.They even had a few budget surpluses, seems unthinkable now. This is the new world order for better or worse.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/iranian-missile-transfer-to-russia-dramatic-escalation-in-war-us-official-says/

 

Iran's transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia constitutes a "dramatic escalation" in Tehran's support for Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine, White House National Security Council Spokesperson Sean Savett said on Sept. 6.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 6 that Iran has sent an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

The U.S. is "alarmed" by reports of the transfer, Savett said in a statement issued to Reuters and other media outlets.

"Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," he said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-chief-urges-china-stop-supporting-russias-war-ukraine-2024-09-06/

 

"China has become a decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine," Stoltenberg told reporters in Oslo. "China is the one that enables production of many of the weapons that Russia uses."
Stoltenberg warned that Beijing's continuous fuelling of the war in Ukraine could adversely impact its interests and reputation.
"I call on China to stop supporting Russia's illegal war," he said.

[Bkk Brian]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

IMO the west has sold to Ukraine a serious miscalculation with regard to Putin; we the public, like Ukraine, seem to be under the impression Putin will stop if the war becomes too costly- I think this is wrong. It’s not, as some would argue, a war motivated by Putin’s ideology. It’s not, as others would argue, a war motivated by resources or money.The Kremlin has made a strategic decision to fight the war until it wins, at any cost. They view the war as a national security necessity. Putin is and has always been a national security hawk. He sees things through the eyes of a KGB agent- he is incredibly calculating - an evil genous as it were.

 

And, the west actually understands this. There is no miscalculation in western capitals; they know what Putin is doing and why he is doing it. And so we are successfully exploiting Russia’s national security concerns by using dripfed equipment to batter the Russian armed forces.

If the Russian army wins (which I suspect it will), it will be at far lesser strength than before the war. This weakens Russia and allows the US in particular to focus all of its efforts on the real threat to a free society which is of course the sleeping giant - China. My Kissinger point as it were explained in context.

 

Ukraine’s gamble against Russia risks becoming a blunder

 

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4862260-ukraine-advance-kursk-scrutiny/

 

George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Kursk operation was still in its early stages but “looks like it’s heading toward a failure.”

“The Russians have not diverted significant numbers of forces from the front lines in Ukraine. If anything, they’ve stepped on the accelerator pedal,” he said. “There seems to be a great deal of skepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish, and I think growing concerns that it was a blunder.”

Russia appears to have accepted the reality of Ukrainian troops in Kursk for now. The Institute for the Study of War assessed this week that “Putin is attempting to preserve the Russian drive on Pokrovsk at the expense of delaying the clearing of Kursk.”

Your opinion is not shared with those who matter.

 

Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o

 

This was discussed last month on this topic

[beautifulthailand99]

The Spectator's redoubtable award winning Ukrainian journalist sheds some light on the "business as usual" extendive changes at the top.

 

https://archive.is/9wqJv

 

Inside Zelensky’s not-so-fresh reshuffle

 

Zelensky’s government has been running on fumes after five years in power. It is desperate for fresh staff. But with elections forbidden by the Constitution during martial law, the President is left recycling the same names, moving them from the cabinet to the presidential office and back again. Parliament only comes into play when the President needs a vote. His inner circle, led by the influential Andriy Yermak, no longer bothers to share strategy with MPs, who are increasingly feeling sidelined. Martial law has handed Zelensky power no previous president had, and this reshuffle is about making sure the system runs on his command.

[Bkk Brian]

Love it when this happens

 

France to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine military aid

France’s defence ministry on Friday announced that it will use a share of €1.4 billion euros in revenue from frozen Russian assets to finance the purchase of military equipment for Ukraine. EU member states agreed in May to use the interest generated by seized assets belonging to the Russian central bank to support Kyiv, a decision Russia has denounced as "illegal". Read our blog to see how the day's events unfolded.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240905-🔴-live-uk-to-supply-ukraine-with-hundreds-of-new-missiles

[Bkk Brian]

Keeping them on their toes in the Kursk Region................

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Your opinion is not shared with those who matter.

 

Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o

 

This was discussed last month on this topic

One can only imagine what levels of suffering that would entail if it continues as a hot war. I suspect it will soon be a tacit ceasfire,  a frozen conflict and a 10 year European rearnament policy and some 21st century Maginot line on the Europe/Russia border. What it won't be is NATO boots on the ground that has been made perfectly clear. And that assumes stability in Europe re populism and the state's ability to keep extensive welfare states and housing needs supported by declining budgets where defence spending won't be a vote winner. 

[zmisha]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just as well then that Russia is out of ammunition and missiles, out of men, out of tanks etc.

Tanks are 19th century things. Nowadays Russia rely on Iranian flying wonders which are carefully rebranded into Russian ones and are sent to perform denazification procedures in Ukraine.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

One can only imagine what levels of suffering that would entail if it continues as a hot war. I suspect it will soon be a tacit ceasfire,  a frozen conflict and a 10 year European rearnament policy and some 21st century Maginot line on the Europe/Russia border. What it won't be is NATO boots on the ground that has been made perfectly clear. And that assumes stability in Europe re populism and the state's ability to keep extensive welfare states and housing needs supported by declining budgets where defence spending won't be a vote winner. 

Yes, Putin and his stooges used the red line tactic to hope Ukraine and the west would stop, that didn't work so now its all about the 10 year war, that won't work either.

[beautifulthailand99]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Love it when this happens

 

France to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine military aid

France’s defence ministry on Friday announced that it will use a share of €1.4 billion euros in revenue from frozen Russian assets to finance the purchase of military equipment for Ukraine. EU member states agreed in May to use the interest generated by seized assets belonging to the Russian central bank to support Kyiv, a decision Russia has denounced as "illegal". Read our blog to see how the day's events unfolded.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240905-🔴-live-uk-to-supply-ukraine-with-hundreds-of-new-missiles

 

Tit for tat is in full swing.

 

Moscow takes control over assets of Western companies

https://www.reuters.com/business/moscow-takes-control-over-assets-western-companies-2023-07-27/

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Tit for tat is in full swing.

 

Moscow takes control over assets of Western companies

https://www.reuters.com/business/moscow-takes-control-over-assets-western-companies-2023-07-27/

 

 

If they have a business in Russia more fool them, of course the little dictator would do this. Is it going to be sold and the money used for the Russian Military? Not exactly tit for tat in full swing if not now is it.

[zmisha]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes, Putin and his stooges used the red line tactic to hope Ukraine and the west would stop, that didn't work so now it’s all about the 10 year war, that won't work either.

This does not work because we all know that Mr. Lavrov does not want to target nuclear weapons at New York where his daughter lives. Neither does Peskov want to target nukes on Paris where his daughter lives. But this cannot work forever. At a certain moment of time the elite will be washed out by ordinary people wanting to survive.

[thaibeachlovers]

46 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The U.S. is "alarmed" by reports of the transfer, Savett said in a statement issued to Reuters and other media outlets.

"Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," he said.

I wonder if they feel embarrassed when they rail against Iran and Co sending weapons to Russia?

 

As with all wars, war technology is being updated with every battle and it must surely not have passed un noticed that Iranian, Nth Korea and China are improving their weapons, and the only possible use for them IMO will be against the US and whichever western nations are foolish enough to go poodle like into yet another interminable Middle East war.

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If they have a business in Russia more fool them, of course the little dictator would do this. Is it going to be sold and the money used for the Russian Military?

You did ask and as I have a recently broken ankle and need to rest up I have time to do more research and respond in detail. So, in short most probably and these also  provide baubies to his tame oligarchs who are denied acess to their western assetss that they loved so much.

 

For those who don't understand what this is about. There are two mechanisms of protection against withdrawal of capital from the country by Western companies:

 

The first is the mechanism of introducing temporary management of foreign assets in Russia, which allows companies registered in NATO countries to be transferred under the management of Rosimushchestvo (a state-owned company that manages Russian property). The owner in this case remains the same, but is deprived of the right to influence the company in any way. Also, if these companies want to sell them, the sale price is limited to 50% of the stock exchange value.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Agency_for_State_Property_Management

 

The second decree on Economically Significant Companies (EZO), these are companies that are important for the security of the country, for example, large car manufacturers or large agricultural firms, if in the structure of their owners there are companies from NATO countries or offshore zones, the remaining shareholders can deprive them of their corporate rights through the court.

 

https://denuo.legal/en/insights/news/240305/

 

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You did ask and as I have a recently broken ankle and need to rest up I have time to do more research and respond in detail. So, in short most probably and these also  provide baubies to his tame oligarchs who are denied acess to their western assetss that they loved so much.

 

For those who don't understand what this is about. There are two mechanisms of protection against withdrawal of capital from the country by Western companies:

 

The first is the mechanism of introducing temporary management of foreign assets in Russia, which allows companies registered in NATO countries to be transferred under the management of Rosimushchestvo (a state-owned company that manages Russian property). The owner in this case remains the same, but is deprived of the right to influence the company in any way. Also, if these companies want to sell them, the sale price is limited to 50% of the stock exchange value.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Agency_for_State_Property_Management

 

The second decree on Economically Significant Companies (EZO), these are companies that are important for the security of the country, for example, large car manufacturers or large agricultural firms, if in the structure of their owners there are companies from NATO countries or offshore zones, the remaining shareholders can deprive them of their corporate rights through the court.

 

https://denuo.legal/en/insights/news/240305/

 

So your guessing.

 

In Ukraine its no guess, they are being given Russian money that has been seized.

[GroveHillWanderer]

 

 

[Danderman123]

Every day that passes, Russia is weakened by the war of attrition, while the US is untouched.

 

Russia loses territory every day.

 

If anyone thinks things are going along Putin's plan, they are deluded.

 

This war is going badly for Russia.

[beautifulthailand99]

24 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Every day that passes, Russia is weakened by the war of attrition, while the US is untouched.

 

Russia loses territory every day.

 

If anyone thinks things are going along Putin's plan, they are deluded.

 

This war is going badly for Russia.

Absolutely true and bad for Ukraine and bad for Europe as well. And let's add the world, all wars are bad even the so called good ones. They are no glorious dead just dead and we as humans should sytrech every sinew to prevent them or bring them to an end.

 

Irish TV allows a rare prime time debate beween two opposing voices.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Absolutely true and bad for Ukraine and bad for Europe as well. And let's add the world, all wars are bad even the so called good ones. They are no glorious dead just dead and we as humans should sytrech every sinew to prevent them or bring them to an end.

 

Irish TV allows a rare prime time debate beween two opposing voices.

 

 

Gawd............ Jeffrey Sachs 

[Bkk Brian]

Watched footage on X, can't post here, horrible. More war crimes by the terrorists........

 

Video footage appears to show Russians killing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers

The troops emerge and stagger into the middle of the dusty track, then onto their knees, their hands placed on their heads. Seconds later, the Ukrainian drone footage shows, they lie face down, motionless, dust trailing nearby.

Video obtained exclusively by CNN, filmed during fighting late August near the embattled city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, shows an apparent execution by Russian troops of three surrendering Ukrainians, after their trench was overrun.

The incident, described by a Ukrainian official who asked for some details to be withheld to protect the identity of the unit, is part of a pattern of apparent executions, seemingly increasing in pace this year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/europe/video-russia-surrendering-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-intl-cmd/index.html

[Social Media]

Another off topic troll post removed @beautifulthailand99

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Absolutely true and bad for Ukraine and bad for Europe as well. And let's add the world, all wars are bad even the so called good ones. They are no glorious dead just dead and we as humans should sytrech every sinew to prevent them or bring them to an end.

 

Irish TV allows a rare prime time debate beween two opposing voices.

 

 

Clearly, you have a direct pipeline to Kremlin propaganda.

[kwonitoy]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/usa-names-the-u-s-states-that-benefit-most-from-military-aid-to-ukraine/

 

 

 

[kwonitoy]

[Seppius]

That's more Ukrainian civilians lives saved

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, kwonitoy said:

Putin really screwed up.

 

How long until the Russian people get tired of Putin's mistakes?

[beautifulthailand99]

7 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Clearly, you have a direct pipeline to Kremlin propaganda.

I'm sorry I don't cheerlead for this war to continue and see it as binary good vs evil that started on 24th February 2022. But there we are, I make my own mind up , I am beholden to no-one or no source and read widely and comprehensively. Indeed I watch RT on average once a year since the invasion to see how ludicrous it is as a source of propaganda. If that makes me a Putin shill in the minds of some here so be it. I avoid baiting and name calling as well I should and if there is one lesson I have learned in my life ,so far if you must waste time on internet forums , don't get angry or annoyed - it's just random people you don't know hammering away on keyboards most probably because they have nothing better to do.

 

War is the greatest evil: Russia was baited into this crime — but that's no excuse

 

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/01/is-the-greatest-evil-was-baited-into-this--but-thats-no-excuse/

 

This provocation, which includes establishing a NATO missile base 100 miles from Russia's border, was foolish and highly irresponsible. It never made geopolitical sense. This does not, however, excuse the invasion of Ukraine. Yes, the Russians were baited. But they reacted by pulling the trigger. This is a crime. Their crime. Let us pray for a ceasefire. Let us work for a return to diplomacy and sanity, a moratorium on arms shipments to Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country. Let us hope for an end to war before we stumble into a nuclear holocaust that devours us all.

[Danderman123]

35 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm sorry I don't cheerlead for this war to continue and see it as binary good vs evil that started on 24th February 2022. But there we are, I make my own mind up , I am beholden to no-one or no source and read widely and comprehensively. Indeed I watch RT on average once a year since the invasion to see how ludicrous it is as a source of propaganda. If that makes me a Putin shill in the minds of some here so be it. I avoid baiting and name calling as well I should and if there is one lesson I have learned in my life ,so far if you must waste time on internet forums , don't get angry or annoyed - it's just random people you don't know hammering away on keyboards most probably because they have nothing better to do.

 

War is the greatest evil: Russia was baited into this crime — but that's no excuse

 

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/01/is-the-greatest-evil-was-baited-into-this--but-thats-no-excuse/

 

This provocation, which includes establishing a NATO missile base 100 miles from Russia's border, was foolish and highly irresponsible. It never made geopolitical sense. This does not, however, excuse the invasion of Ukraine. Yes, the Russians were baited. But they reacted by pulling the trigger. This is a crime. Their crime. Let us pray for a ceasefire. Let us work for a return to diplomacy and sanity, a moratorium on arms shipments to Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country. Let us hope for an end to war before we stumble into a nuclear holocaust that devours us all.

You can worry about who baited who after Putin loses the war.

[TedG]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I

 

War is the greatest evil: Russia was baited into this crime — but that's no excuse

 

 

BullChips.