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Russian Soldier Death Toll in Ukraine Reaches Grim Milestone


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Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country has kept a tight lid on the number of its soldiers who have been killed or injured. However, various sources now suggest that Russia’s military death toll has reached a grim new milestone. According to recent data from independent Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza, the number of Russian soldiers killed has crossed 100,000, with estimates ranging from 106,000 to 140,000 dead by June 21, 2024. Their analysis primarily relies on inheritance records and obituaries found on social media and other outlets. This estimate aligns with other recent sources: French officials estimated 150,000 Russian deaths by May, and BBC Russia reported at least 113,000 deaths by June.

 

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Mediazona and Meduza's estimates can also be broken down by week, revealing significant spikes in Russian losses during key moments in the conflict, such as Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 and the battles for Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. These figures, however, do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories or Russian soldiers severely wounded and unable to return to battle. Based on leaked documents from the U.S. Department of Defense, it is estimated that around three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for every one killed in battle. This suggests that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June, exceeding Russia’s initial invading force in February 2022. French and British officials have also estimated that approximately 500,000 Russians had been severely injured or killed by May.

 

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The demographic impact of these losses is stark. The greatest losses have been among men aged 35 to 39, with 27,000 estimated deaths in this age group between February 2022 and June 2024. As a percentage of Russia’s male population, the most severe losses have occurred among those aged 45 to 49. Estimates suggest that around 2% of all Russian men aged 20 to 50 have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.

 

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To put these numbers in historical context, Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 surpass the combined casualties from all its wars since World War II. Despite these heavy losses, Western officials and analysts believe that Russia’s supply of manpower will not be significantly affected in the near to medium term. According to the New York Times, American officials estimate that Russia is able to recruit between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers per month.

 

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On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that around 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, though the actual number is likely much higher. Additionally, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians are thought to have died, with over 10,000 confirmed deaths and at least 22,000 estimated deaths in Mariupol alone. The Economist’s war tracker indicates that July has seen some of the most intense fighting since the invasion began, suggesting that the toll on both sides will continue to rise.

 

Credit: The Economist 2024-07-09

 

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