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Latest Nate Silver Predicition

Chwooly

By Chwooly
in Political Soapbox

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stevenl Star Member

stevenl

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Posted

August 14

🟦 Harris: 56.7%

🟥 Trump: 42.7%

.

August 31

🟥 Trump: 55.1% 

🟦 Harris: 44.6%

 

This swing doesn't make sense. Something 's wrong here.

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riclag Ruby Member

riclag

Posted
Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Chwooly said:

Who is Nate Silver you ask? 

 

He is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight. 

 

Let the flaming begin

 

 

*The best stat ,272.9 ,Predicted Electoral votes.

 

harris 265.1 ! Way to much vibe , not enough of the required electoral votes!

 

There’s still hope for you , USA!

🇺🇸 

Edited by riclag
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Fat is a type of crazy Platinum Member

Fat is a type of crazy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, maesariang said:

CNN swing state polls are bad for Harris. They were wrong by 7.5 pts before and only 1 pt ahead. 

Consider that big pollsters learn from their mistakes. If you can show they did get it wrong election after election  then fair enough but to compare it to one election they got wrong - if they did - isn't something that is really useful information in my opinion. 

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maesariang Platinum Member

maesariang

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1 minute ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Consider that big pollsters learn from their mistakes. If you can show they did get it wrong election after election  then fair enough but to compare it to one election they got wrong - if they did - isn't something that is really useful information in my opinion. 

The polls were more wrong in 2020 than 2016. They are mostly pushing an agenda or simply not reaching broad samples. It is easy to poll one area which is biased. Samples need to be broad.

Edited by maesariang
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riclag Ruby Member

riclag

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9 minutes ago, maesariang said:

Weirdo with a bad haircut.

How can there be a final prediction?

Trump hasnt debated the loser’s  yet!

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Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, riclag said:

How can there be a final prediction?

Trump hasnt debated the loser’s  yet!

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

Edited by Jingthing
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maesariang Platinum Member

maesariang

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

His success rate is not that impressive. Most elections are easy to pick.

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bubblegum Platinum Member

bubblegum

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Lol, you do realise Nate Silver founded project five thirty eight?

 

 

Indeed, just show the misinformation trolls are at it again

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earlinclaifornia Platinum Member

earlinclaifornia

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

Said it will be shortly after Labor Day final prediction

Trump needs to did deep and come up with an October surprise

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thaibeachlovers Star Member

thaibeachlovers

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19 hours ago, stevenl said:

August 14

🟦 Harris: 56.7%

🟥 Trump: 42.7%

.

August 31

🟥 Trump: 55.1% 

🟦 Harris: 44.6%

 

This swing doesn't make sense. Something 's wrong here.

LOL. People are waking up to the reality that is Harris.

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riclag Ruby Member

riclag

Posted
Posted

To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

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Berkshire Ruby Member

Berkshire

Posted
Posted
On 9/4/2024 at 8:32 PM, Jingthing said:

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

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Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, riclag said:

To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

You just want her to lose.

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Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Yes it happened.

The Oracle has spoken!

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maesariang Platinum Member

maesariang

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

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Berkshire Ruby Member

Berkshire

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, maesariang said:

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

Where are you getting your information?  From this article, he predicted that Obama and the Dems would prevail in 2008....

 

[The Keys to the White House firmly pre-
dict a Democratic victory in the popular
vote in 2008. It is most improbable that
the course of events will swing the Keys
back in line for the GOP.]

 

https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/publications/articles/se_720110.pdf

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