Baht becoming ridiculously strong

[Andre0720]

7 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

The claims that she is stupid come only from supporters of Trump. Aside from being childish, it is not based on fact. The candidate  is not elected nor even close to being elected yet. There hasn't been any event or statement from the candidate that would negatively impact the currency valuation. The Trump campaign insists that Trump is in the lead, so there should be no Harris impact. You can't have it both ways.

And  really, it is very childish to  call  the candidate stupid. She did not get where she is by being stupid. She made it through undergraduate and law school, and successfully reached multiple positions of higher office.  How far did you get with an education and have you ever managed a large legal team and been held accountable for the results?

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/23/harris-acceptance-speech-trump-00176126

 

The former president says the current vice president is leftist (“Comrade Kamala,” “far more liberal than crazy Bernie Sanders”). She is a lightweight (“stupid,” “dumb”). She is a phony, defined only by her ambition, disconnected from ordinary Americans (“So I don’t know, is she Indian or she is Black?” “What happened to her laugh?...That’s the laugh of a crazy person”).

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4859946-vice-president-kamala-harris-tax/

 

Anyway, just educate yourself, and stop your silly posts on this forum Please, and thank you.

[MalcolmB]

15 hours ago, retarius said:

Don't worry the crash is just around the corner. The economic. policy statement prioritising 'marriage equality' doesn't inspire confidence. 

Thanks for the heads up. 
I will convert it back and lock in my profits.

Keep the gays off my money

[georgegeorgia]

21 minutes ago, MalcolmB said:

Thanks for the heads up. 
I will convert it back and lock in my profits.

Keep the gays off my money

Gays ? 😂

[Unamerican]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:40 AM, fulhamster said:

Can some of the experts on here please explain in layman's terms how the baht has got so strong in the last week or so ?  With all the political manouverings and sky high household debt, how has is moved from close to 37 / USD to today's level of 33.5  ??

Not really: it iis simply that  the USD is declining in value very rapidly now. 

And in what sense is this ridiculous?! 

[Unamerican]

On 9/6/2024 at 4:16 PM, impulse said:

Someone please set my little pinhead straight.  I contend that the only way to gage the strength of a given currency is to compare how much of a sturdy commodity (like gold) it will buy.  If a USD buys 35x as much gold as a THB, that's the relative value, even if the "exchange rate" is something different.

 

And if the THB buys less gold than it did a year ago, it's losing value, maybe more and maybe less than the USD.  They may both be tanking, so calling one "strong" isn't really accurate.

 

Of course, that's my engineering bent, and not a financial bent.  Where is that wrong?

 

 

 

No way!  Not everything is related to gold price, which has gone down in the USA, as elsewhere. 

[Unamerican]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:29 PM, impulse said:

?  I contend that the value of gold is set in stone.  

[Brave-Fart]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:07 PM, John Drake said:

 

The 800,000 you can't touch until you leave the country, which will just sit there otherwise until you die?  Meanwhile, what about the money you're bringing into Thailand in order to live on that retirement visa? That's going down. You're losing both ways.

well to be honest 400,000 has to remain in there because you can withdraw 400,000 and leave 400,000 which must be topped back up to 800,000 up to 2-3 months prior to applying for your yearly visa.

[Unamerican]

 

 

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Posted just

1 minute ago, Unamerican said:

 

now

  On 9/6/2024 at 8:29 PM,  impulse said:

>> ?  I contend that the value of gold is set in stone.

 

But no! It must surely be set in metal (gold, to be precise!). Stone is not relevant  here. 

[Unamerican]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:29 PM, impulse said:

You get the gist...

Nope, no gist, or any sense, got from this.  Sorry! 

[connda]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:40 AM, fulhamster said:

Can some of the experts on here please explain in layman's terms how the baht has got so strong in the last week or so ?  With all the political manouverings and sky high household debt, how has is moved from close to 37 / USD to today's level of 33.5  ??

A weakening dollar as the Federal Reserves states that it is going to cut rates.  Cutting rates will cause further inflation and continue to debase the dollar.  The dollar is weakening globally - it is not the THB getting stronger per say, although the THB may have gotten marginally stronger.  You would have to check the FX market charts for the THB against other currencies. 

Check the DXY index where the USD is compared to this basket of currencies:  EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF.  The USD has been money-hammered over the last few months, especially the last two months.



But you need to look at the bigger long-term picture. The DXY has been chopping around for two years now.   I wouldn't start freaking out unless the DXY falls below 99.58, then things may get interesting.

[Peterphuket]

On 9/6/2024 at 7:05 AM, Cameroni said:

 

It's very simple. All the currencies of the world are valued against the dollar. If the dollar is strong, the other currency falls. If the dollar is weak, the other currency goes up, unless there are very particular reasons that prevent this. At the moment it is absolutely clear that the Fed will weaken the dollar, because they have said so and given big hints this will happen. They will cut interest rates, so this will weaken the dollar.

 

As a result the dollar is weakening at the moment. Therefore the Baht is going up. 

 

This will get worse, because when the interests rates are cut the dollar will fall more, so the Baht will go up further.

With the positive implication that the gold price should also go up, but it doesn't look like that.

[kevin612]

Baht is so strong recently, I am shocked as well

[chiang mai]

41 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

With the positive implication that the gold price should also go up, but it doesn't look like that.

Gold is priced in USD.

 

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price

[soalbundy]

On 9/6/2024 at 1:01 PM, FritsSikkink said:

Not true, currency of countries are based on economic values within that country. 

Dollar goes down, Euro could go down too.

Actually the Euro and pound have strengthened against the dollar even though the interest rates  will fall in the Eurozone, probably in tandem with the dollar, and yet both currencies have weakened somewhat to the Baht.

[LukKrueng]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:58 AM, Raindancer said:

Just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In simplistic terms, tourists get less for their exchange currency.   So, their spending power is less.

 

Exports cost more to other countries,  because they actually pay more for the same items, than when the exchange rate was more in their favour.

 

Or are those thought incorrect?

Correct, but on the flip side importing and traveling overseas is cheaper now

[Cameroni]

2 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

With the positive implication that the gold price should also go up, but it doesn't look like that.

It has trouble to clear the 2500 hurdle, that is a strong number, so it can take some doing. But it will go up.

 

With the dollar falling after the interest rate cuts, it would be strange if Gold did not go up.

[Peterphuket]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Gold is priced in USD.

 

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price

Yes I know, and I'm awhare of this but here in Thailand the price is actually going down, and yes I know it is not 24 carats but it is still more or less linked to the international gold price.

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, Peterphuket said:

Yes I know, and I'm awhare of this but here in Thailand the price is actually going down, and yes I know it is not 24 carats but it is still more or less linked to the international gold price.

The price in Baht is going down because the USD is weakening.

[Peterphuket]

42 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

It has trouble to clear the 2500 hurdle, that is a strong number, so it can take some doing. But it will go up.

 

With the dollar falling after the interest rate cuts, it would be strange if Gold did not go up.

It was about 4 weeks ago that everything pointed to the gold price in the USA going up, so I drove to the gold shop that Monday morning to buy gold for my Thai money
And what turned out after the next day it only went down.

 

[brfsa2]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:51 AM, MalcolmB said:

So my 800,000 baht in my retirement visa fund has gone up in value even more.

 

Thankyou Thailand! 

probably because we have Thaksin back in charge I am guessing?

 

Take that 800,000 Baht out, buy 0.4 in Bitcoin.

5 years from now you can retire in the Maldives Island. If you're still alive. 
 

[harryviking]

This might be the thing that keep me away from Thailand for a while. Cheaper options are suddenly more attractive!

[Cameroni]

27 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

It was about 4 weeks ago that everything pointed to the gold price in the USA going up, so I drove to the gold shop that Monday morning to buy gold for my Thai money
And what turned out after the next day it only went down.

 

You can't lose. Hold it. It will go up. Just a question of when.

[Peterphuket]

15 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

You can't lose. Hold it. It will go up. Just a question of when.

Oh yes, for sure,  I've been collecting it for more than 20 years, so there's no more losing it.
More than 25 years ago, when I first came to Thailand, it was 5,000 Thb for 1 bath gold.

[swissie]

On 9/7/2024 at 6:13 PM, BuddyPish said:

 

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. 

 

The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

 

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. 

 

The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

 

 

Quote: Running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

Not hard to find out where the "buy/sell stops are. Turning every weak breakout into a short term bull/bear trap? Is that it? That would be nothing new.

[BuddyPish]

4 minutes ago, swissie said:

Quote: Running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

Not hard to find out where the "buy/sell stops are. Turning every weak breakout into a short term bull/bear trap? Is that it? That would be nothing new.

It's not new but understanding why the market moves to highs/lows in the order it does and at the time it does is what matters.

 

[swissie]

32 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

It's not new but understanding why the market moves to highs/lows in the order it does and at the time it does is what matters.

 

I believe it's called timing. What moves the markets? 10 fools meet and 6 of them decide that a sack of potatoes will cost 50% more soon. The beginning of a Bull Market. Or the other way around.

 

Supply and demand, but not necessarily when it comes to "split-second" trading. Or "running the stops"? You?

Nevermind:  I am genuinely interested. An increasing number of people seem to use algorithems, but I never got in contact with a person that actually applies it. So, you are my man.

Or, to make a long story short: How do you personally profit from algorisms in your daily trading?

 

[david555]

37,41 Thb for 1 Euro say's Google just now this night at 03-17 hour Thai time

[WhatsNext]

13 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Actually the Euro and pound have strengthened against the dollar even though the interest rates  will fall in the Eurozone, probably in tandem with the dollar, and yet both currencies have weakened somewhat to the Baht.

 

It definitely isn't ' the dollar going down, it is the THB going up which is the weird thing. And this since the soft coup and the political turmoil. 2 THB less per euro in just 6 weeks, that's more than a 5% difference in a very short time.

 

Imagine if you ordered a new villa in Phuket for 50M and suddenly it is the equivalent of 2,5 Million THB more expensive in Euro's a few weeks later when you order the transfer. Let's hope things go back to normal soon.

[chiang mai]

11 minutes ago, WhatsNext said:

 

It definitely isn't ' the dollar going down, it is the THB going up which is the weird thing. And this since the soft coup and the political turmoil. 2 THB less per euro in just 6 weeks, that's more than a 5% difference in a very short time.

 

Imagine if you ordered a new villa in Phuket for 50M and suddenly it is the equivalent of 2,5 Million THB more expensive in Euro's a few weeks later when you order the transfer. Let's hope things go back to normal soon.

It is the value of  USD that has fallen. See the DXY graph below which shows the value of USD. Then look at USD/THB over the same period.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/usdthb:cur

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

[gargamon]

Thankfully my 800k for retirement is already here and I don't need to do 65k a month.