Trump Surges in Latest Top Poll 538 Predictions

[Social Media]

 

Donald Trump’s odds of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election have significantly improved in recent days, though the vice president still holds a slight advantage overall, according to leading election forecasters. The latest prediction model from 538, formerly known as FiveThirtyEight, now gives Harris a 55-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump’s chances have risen to 45-in-100.

 

This marks a notable improvement for Trump, who was previously given just a 39 percent chance by 538 as of September 17. At that time, it was the first instance in which Trump’s odds dipped below 40 percent in the model, while Harris enjoyed a 61 percent likelihood of victory. However, recent swing state polling has shifted the dynamic.

 

According to 538's G. Elliott Morris, Trump's better odds stem from positive polling in key swing states, including results from The New York Times/Siena poll and Quinnipiac University surveys. These new figures reveal a much tighter race than earlier polling had indicated. "Harris’ current lead is barely better than a coin flip," Morris noted. "Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades — the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years."

 

One of the most striking shifts came from a recent New York Times/Siena poll focusing on the Sun Belt battleground states. The survey revealed that Trump now leads Harris by 5 points in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent), a state she had previously been leading by 5 points in August. Trump also maintains a lead in Georgia (49 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent). Just last month, Harris was leading in North Carolina by a narrow 2-point margin.

 

For Trump to secure victory in November, he would need to win all three of these crucial battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—as well as Nevada. Meanwhile, Harris could afford to lose these states and still win the election if she secures victories in the key "blue wall" swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Winning these three states would give her the necessary 270 Electoral College votes unless there are unexpected results elsewhere. According to current 538 forecasts, Harris is slightly ahead in all three of these critical states.

 

The New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 in Georgia, and 682 in North Carolina between September 17-21. The results carry a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for Arizona, 4.6 percentage points for Georgia, and 4.2 percentage points for North Carolina. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns were contacted for comment, but no responses were received at the time of publication.

 

In addition to the state-level polling, a national Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released this past Tuesday showed Trump with a narrow 1-point lead over Harris in a four-way race that includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, both polling at 1 percent. In a two-way race, Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent each. Just a month earlier, Harris led Trump by 49 percent to 47 percent in a similar poll.

 

The Quinnipiac poll also found that voter enthusiasm has shifted slightly. Among likely Harris voters, the number of those who said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting for her has dropped from 75 percent in August to 70 percent. Meanwhile, 71 percent of likely Trump voters reported being very enthusiastic, up from 68 percent in the previous poll. 

"On the backstretch of the race to election day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoke their supporters' enthusiasm all the way to the finish line. A slight shift suggests the Harris crowd is not roaring as loudly as it was last month," said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

 

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,728 likely voters nationwide between September 19-22, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

 

Based on a report from: Newsweek 2024-09-26

 

 

 

[mdr224]

This article is inconsistent with this forums agenda. Everyone here believes democrats win in a landslide

[thaibeachlovers]

For those that think polls are significant and hate Trump, this must be causing them stress. 😪

 

IMO it's just that the reality of Harris is becoming so obvious that her erstwhile supporters are deserting her in droves. I doubt they are going to vote Trump, but he may win simply because not enough remain to vote for her.

 

[still kicking]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

For those that think polls are significant and hate Trump, this must be causing them stress. 😪

 

IMO it's just that the reality of Harris is becoming so obvious that her erstwhile supporters are deserting her in droves. I doubt they are going to vote Trump, but he may win simply because not enough remain to vote for her.

 

Keep counting sheep 

[stoner]

4 minutes ago, still kicking said:

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

For those that think polls are significant and hate Trump, this must be causing them stress. 😪

 

IMO it's just that the reality of Harris is becoming so obvious that her erstwhile supporters are deserting her in droves. I doubt they are going to vote Trump, but he may win simply because not enough remain to vote for her.

 

Expand  

Keep counting sheep

 

keep projecting. 

[thaibeachlovers]

8 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Keep counting sheep 

Is that the best you can do, really?

[still kicking]

1 minute ago, stoner said:

 

keep projecting. 

What does he know about USA he is a Kivi

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, still kicking said:

What does he know about USA he is a Kivi

I don't need to live in the US to know that Harris is not a good choice. Whomever wins they affect the whole world, so entirely within the remit of any to comment.

[stoner]

2 minutes ago, still kicking said:

What does he know about USA he is a Kivi

 

from his post history. a lot more than you do. just let it go before it gets embarrassing. 

[still kicking]

Just now, stoner said:

 

from his post history. a lot more than you do. just let it go before it gets embarrassing. 

I don't post or quote on Foreign politics  

[Cryingdick]

People are beginning to see Kamala. Thats bad news for her. She can't speak a single coherent sentence or ;ay out any ideas that have any merit. Walz was also a terrible pick. He goes around pretending to be this folksy casserole loving Minnesotan and it is less authentic than his white guy tacos. 

 

When that couple asked on Oprah how she would help get prices down it was embarrassing. You could even see on the couples face they were flabbergasted by her unintelligible tripe.

 

She cant even attend a dinner for fear she will turn into some sort of drooling retard if in public without notes for a ten minute span. 

[rasg]

Drooling retard is right but cackling retard is more accurate. The polls are totally inaccurate so they can steal the vote again. This time it won’t work.

[thaipo7]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

For those that think polls are significant and hate Trump, this must be causing them stress. 😪

 

IMO it's just that the reality of Harris is becoming so obvious that her erstwhile supporters are deserting her in droves. I doubt they are going to vote Trump, but he may win simply because not enough remain to vote for her.

 

She has nothing to offer.  All she is doing is flip flopping for votes.  She will flip flop back to her real beliefs if she wins.  America cannot survive a Harris win.  The propaganda by the Left will suck in the useful idiots they need.  Just hope they don't get enough.

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Is that the best you can do, really?

Yeh, it lacks Trump's hate mongering.

[Hanaguma]

While the results are good for Trump (and therefore for the USA), I would still take them with a grain of salt.  It is in the interest of all media, both online and legacy, to promote the idea that the election is super close and will go down to the wire. Happens every 4 years.  I am sure the media was saying the same in 1984, when Reagan destroyed Mondale. Reagan came within 5000 votes of winning EVERY state.

 

It's all about the Benjamins. Money is made in close contests.

[Expat4life66]

um...holistic...give money...holistic...raise taxes holistic..great plan, lol

[mdr224]

2 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

People are beginning to see Kamala. Thats bad news for her. She can't speak a single coherent sentence or ;ay out any ideas that have any merit. Walz was also a terrible pick. He goes around pretending to be this folksy casserole loving Minnesotan and it is less authentic than his white guy tacos. 

 

When that couple asked on Oprah how she would help get prices down it was embarrassing. You could even see on the couples face they were flabbergasted by her unintelligible tripe.

 

She cant even attend a dinner for fear she will turn into some sort of drooling retard if in public without notes for a ten minute span. 

November 5 seems very far away. Democrats very desperately want it to happen now and people to vote now because the more time goes on the more it shifts in favor of trump

[RichardColeman]

Overall polling polls mean little in USA, it will be the swing states that matter, from what I see Trump is winning the presidency. 

 

But I think there is going to either be a third attempt on Trumps life OR some very serious election-interference between now and the election or vote rigging by the dems

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't need to live in the US to know that Harris is not a good choice. Whomever wins they affect the whole world, so entirely within the remit of any to comment.

Wow Harris may not be a good choice, it is beyond the realm of reason how so many people could think that Trump is a better choice, especially in light of his four failed years of a presidency. 

[Tug]

1 hour ago, thaipo7 said:

She has nothing to offer.  All she is doing is flip flopping for votes.  She will flip flop back to her real beliefs if she wins.  America cannot survive a Harris win.  The propaganda by the Left will suck in the useful idiots they need.  Just hope they don't get enough.

Pay attention tonight when Harris lays out her economic policies.I’ve seen some snippets of it allready concise backed by facts and experts I know that frightens some of you but give it a go and compare.i know some of you give more weight to batteries and sharks……tariffs that we pay not the foreign governments…….windmills causeing cancer and killing whales (remember that gem?) the immigrants eating the cats and dogs…..anyway to me I like plans backed up by facts and experts….oh well enough of this you all can get back to your circle *erk.

[JonnyF]

This is nothing more than the media trying to influence the election by motivating people to vote. 

 

Essentially "don't get complacent, we still need your vote".

 

Worthless.

 

If you want to know whos going to win, wait until November 6th. I recommend Liberals get their polkadot hankies ready. 

[Cryingdick]

5 minutes ago, Tug said:

Pay attention tonight when Harris lays out her economic policies.I’ve seen some snippets of it allready concise backed by facts and experts I know that frightens some of you but give it a go and compare.i know some of you give more weight to batteries and sharks……tariffs that we pay not the foreign governments…….windmills causeing cancer and killing whales (remember that gem?) the immigrants eating the cats and dogs…..anyway to me I like plans backed up by facts and experts….oh well enough of this you all can get back to your circle *erk.

Most of the time you make as much sense as Kamala herself.

[Dcheech]

Ah an article from Newsweek. An old famous liberal magazine, that due to internet & media in general, it was sold and is now run by a hard right wing conservatives.  with additional conservative NGO funding. Perhaps less reputable a news source than the New York Post, and that is saying something. 

Its going to be down to the wire. The good thing with the cash she is raising, Harris can continue high level media presence from now until election day. Meanwhile Trump just put in another good word for Vlad Putin, the Felon cannot help himself.  

[mdr224]

16 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Wow Harris may not be a good choice, it is beyond the realm of reason how so many people could think that Trump is a better choice, especially in light of his four failed years of a presidency. 

Desperate post from a desperate guy

[Tug]

7 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Most of the time you make as much sense as Kamala herself.

Watch without your trump glasses

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, Dcheech said:

Its going to be down to the wire. The good thing with the cash she is raising, Harris can continue high level media presence from now until election day.

 

By hiding from the media?

 

People are growing tired of seeing her read from a teleprompter in front of rent-a-crowd. It's only going to become more obvious in the next 6 weeks. 

[Cryingdick]

3 minutes ago, Dcheech said:

Ah an article from Newsweek. An old famous liberal magazine, that due to internet & media in general, it was sold and is now run by a hard right wing conservatives.  with additional conservative NGO funding. Perhaps less reputable a news source than the New York Post, and that is saying something. 

Its going to be down to the wire. The good thing with the cash she is raising, Harris can continue high level media presence from now until election day. Meanwhile Trump just put in another good word for Vlad Putin, the Felon cannot help himself.  

You think it is a good thing that this amount of money is involved in politics? There is this weird disconnect where dems claim the reps are the party of the rich and then host events all full of elites, and boast about how much they have. $500,000,000 that has been spent on TV ads for Kamala would buy a lot of hot sauce for your purse.

[Cryingdick]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

By hiding from the media?

 

People are growing tired of seeing her read from a teleprompter in front of rent-a-crowd. It's only going to become more obvious in the next 6 weeks. 

The problem is that it is literally verbatim. There is no variation of any kind.

[stoner]

49 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

It's all about the Benjamins.

 

don't tell diddy. 

[Cryingdick]

Just now, stoner said:

 

don't tell diddy. 

 

Diiddy dont do jingles.