Rising Baht Sparks Fears of Another 'Tom Yam Kung' Crisis

[Robert Tyrrell]

14 minutes ago, Moneyhonour said:

This weekend I read in the bangkok post that India will sell  their overstock Basmati Rice in their full stocked warehouses to the world market for very low prices. As for Thailand with the upcoming Rice harvesting season this Will be a disaster. The crisis Will appear sooner than we think.

What they really need to stop is manipulating the Thai Baht,According the global watchdogs in the economic/forums and other governments Tresasury's is they are like in the top 5 monies being monitored for this possible activity. Stop adding travel entree fees, Stop trying to tax retired expats in Thailand which in my country is illegal , Its called double taxation 🙂 Mine will not be taxed no dta agreement or double taxation agreement  with Thailand🙂 This will certainly put a damper on Thailands economy and global business and the crops or agricultural disasters and  high unemploment and factories close down and Thailands products on average will see a 20% increase in there product inside and outside Thailand exported, Yes agricultural is one of the facets but the meat and potates I listed is the main factors of Thailands woes !!

Edited September 30 by Robert Tyrrell
Addition

[ChaiyaTH]

Can't wait for it, Thailand is just nonsense priced in so many ways. Same they make you believe it would cost up to 30,000 USD for a piece of <deleted>ty land, barely 600 square meters, while it is still 30-40 minutes outside of a city like Chiang Mai. That while there is no economy at all, and there is like infinite land available and unused too.

This while you can buy acres of land in western countries for it, that you actually would own legally too. Let a crisis start then I will be cash ready to buy something at 50% off.

Edited September 30 by ChaiyaTH

[crazykopite]

Toni got his dirty fingers on manipulating the baht that’s all well and good until  it comes and bites you where the sun don’t shined

[NobbyClarke]

Some say oblivion is better 

Some say reality is better 

I just feel sorry for the normal, everyday Thai folk and my prayers are with them.

 

[crazykopite]

1 hour ago, Tropicalevo said:

 

 

So, a perfect time to increase the minimum wage - not.

I read a report a few days ago that they’ve delayed it 

[Ctkong]

1 hour ago, RandolphGB said:

 

The idea that Thailand could organize what little manufacturing industry they have to compete with China and now Vietnam is absurd. They can't even get a visa system right, and tourism is their one goal. Promoting Pad Thai and elephant pants is about as imaginative they've been in recent years. 

 

They're fundamentally a very lazy, backwards nation. 

 

 

 

Vietnam business elites are essentially from ancient China Fujian stock so dna wise they are shwred, diligent and frugal whereas Thailand business elite though of mainly ancient chinese stock were from Yunnan and Guangxi provinces which are not known for their business acumen.  Thai elites thrived because of low competition from local Thais who are culturally close to those inhabitants of Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines. 

[lordgrinz]

We can only hope! 

[Ctkong]

35 minutes ago, Robert Tyrrell said:

What they really need to stop is manipulating the Thai Baht,According the global watchdogs in the economic/forums and other governments Tresasury's is they are like in the top 5 monies being monitored for this possible activity. Stop adding travel entree fees, Stop trying to tax retired expats in Thailand which in my country is illegal , Its called double taxation 🙂 Mine will not be taxed no dta agreement or double taxation agreement  with Thailand🙂 This will certainly put a damper on Thailands economy and global business and the crops or agricultural disasters and  high unemploment and factories close down and Thailands products on average will see a 20% increase in there product inside and outside Thailand exported, Yes agricultural is one of the facets but the meat and potates I listed is the main factors of Thailands woes !!

Until and unless Thailand cobbled all the relevant agencies together and focus in resolving the crisis without personal agenda,, the left hand will just undo what the right hand achieved. Implementing too many policies at once while some of them are not even consolidated yet is foolhardy and Thai civil servants are not known to be the sharpest tool in the box. 

[JackGats]

Quote: "A 10% increase in the baht’s exchange rate combined with a 10% decrease in the dollar will raise production costs by 20%."

 

Poor English. "Production costs" should read "export price of domestically manufactured goods".

[2long]

But a stronger Baht will help the hiso locals here spend more money on Gucci bags while on holiday overseas, so let's leave it as is, ok?!

[crazykopite]

Bring it on 20 years ago I was getting 74 baht to the £  I formed a company and purchased beach land still have it to this day ! You can never say never and the way Thailand is going I wouldn’t be surprised if it went belly up through poor mismanagement of the economy 

 

[black tabby12345]

 Thailand might face a shortage of foreign currency reserves. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Will it be a kind of good news to the would-be expats and tourists?

As their immigration policy could be further relaxed; alien-friendly.

As Thailand will be desperate for earning foreign currencies(brough in from outside).

Even though kingdom's inflation rate will rise(lower currency value=higher price of imports that cannot be made locally); will be a long-term disadvantage to the people living here, Thais and foreigners alike.

Edited September 30 by black tabby12345

[black tabby12345]

6 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Importing from China even cheaper, 📉 Thai jobs down

 

Walmart phenomenon in Thailand...

Already happened in a country like Japan.

While their Yen was a lot stronger, their factories left own country.

By now, 40% of the manufactures are now outside their home

Edited September 30 by black tabby12345

[Purdey]

I haven't seen evidence that the BOT is manipulating the Baht. What it's not doing is bowing down to government orders.

[wozzlegummich]

The Digital Wallet handout will fix everything - NOT!

[Frankie baby]

Talking about foreign currency reserves - they must have one hell of a mountain of Rouble's somewhere. 

[Karma80]

6 minutes ago, Purdey said:

I haven't seen evidence that the BOT is manipulating the Baht. What it's not doing is bowing down to government orders.

The US Dept of Treasury believes Thailand is worthy of being on the currency manipulation watch list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_manipulator
 

How effective that manipulation is is up for debate. I imagine not very is the real answer.

[chiang mai]

28 minutes ago, black tabby12345 said:

 Thailand might face a shortage of foreign currency reserves. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Will it be a kind of good news to the would-be expats and tourists?

As their immigration policy could be further relaxed; alien-friendly.

As Thailand will be desperate for earning foreign currencies(brough in from outside).

Even though kingdom's inflation rate will rise(lower currency value=higher price of imports that cannot be made locally); will be a long-term disadvantage to the people living here, Thais and foreigners alike.

Thailand earns very little by way of foreign currency as a result of international tourism, the vast majority of foreign currency reserves come from payments for exports. Exports are 60% of GDP, Tourism is only 12% and a lot of the vacation costs are paid for in their home country, typically flight and hotel costs.

[CallumWK]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

lot of the vacation costs are paid for in their home country, typically flight and hotel costs.

 

You mean the hotel costs are not transferred to Thailand, so the hotel let them stay for free?

 

And all the money they spend on their holidays, are not spent in Thailand?

Edited September 30 by CallumWK

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, Karma80 said:

The US Dept of Treasury believes Thailand is worthy of being on the currency manipulation watch list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_manipulator
 

How effective that manipulation is is up for debate. I imagine not very is the real answer.

Currency manipulation doesn't have anything really to do with exchange rates, its's much more about trade. So if Thailand is a currency manipulator, according to the US Fed, so is Germany, Switzerland and Vietnam!

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

[wozzlegummich]

Poor old western expats living on a fixed foreign pension in Thailand must be getting pretty jittery now. Especially if they are paying rent.

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

 

You mean the hotel costs are not transferred to Thailand, so the hotel let them stay for free?

Funny! What is transfered or credited is THB, not foreign currency!

[CallumWK]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

Funny! What is transfered or credited is THB, not foreign currency!

 

Funny?

 

No it is not, foreign currency is transferred to Thailand, and exchanged to Thai baht at the Thai bank. Everyone, except you I guess, know that offers the best exchange rate. Nobody sends Thai baht to Thailand.

 

And you think that tourists bring baht to Thailand to spend here?

[Celsius]

The article is spot F on...0

 

It smells exactly like when a stock or crypto goes up when a select few want to exit.

 

The Thai economy is in extremely bad shape. The problem here is that most AN posters have gone completely local and believe the BS institutions feed them..

 

 

[chiang mai]

Just now, CallumWK said:

 

Funny?

 

No it is not, foreign currency is transferred to Thailand, and exchanged to Thai baht at the Thai bank. Everyone, except you I guess, know that offers the best exchange rate. Nobody sends Thai baht to Thailand.

 

And you think that tourists bring baht to Thailand to spend here?

Tourists typically book and pay using credit cards, many in advance from their home country. Visa/MasterCard settles their accounts with the supplier in local currency, not by remitting foreign currency for the supplier to exchange at the bank. Those who book packages pay the tour company in their home country, who in turn pay suppliers in local currency. Granted, backpackers and FITS will exchange currency in country

[Celsius]

5 hours ago, Brn2Trvl said:

The rising Thai bhat, what the heck is being talked about here ?? every day I see the value of the bot go down for the last five months.

 

Flip the chat the other way you dolt 

[black tabby12345]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

Thailand earns very little by way of foreign currency as a result of international tourism, the vast majority of foreign currency reserves come from payments for exports. Exports are 60% of GDP, Tourism is only 12% and a lot of the vacation costs are paid for in their home country, typically flight and hotel costs.

 

In a broad term, Inbound tourism itself is part of the Export Industry.

 

is inbound tourism a kind of export industry? - Google Search

 

As the country sells its labors/services  to gain foreign currencies.

And the ratio of tourism sector earning is never so small here.

Roughly 10% of Thai GDP.

Do you remember those flamed anti-government movement during the border blockade during Corona Virus scare April 2020- May 2022?

Its cause was mostly from the hardship(poverty ) impacted by the lack of tourism income among common Thai people(reliant on foreign tourists).

Hunger of the mass of people often moves people against  own regime.

10 million people are said to be hit  by that tourism shut down during that C/virus period.

 

 

[CallumWK]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Visa/MasterCard settles their accounts with the supplier in local currency, not by remitting foreign currency for the supplier to exchange at the bank.

 

Even CC card companies have to use foreign currency to buy Thai baht, or you want to claim they just print it?

[chiang mai]

Just now, black tabby12345 said:

 

In a broad term, Inbound tourism itself is part of the Export Industry.

 

is inbound tourism a kind of export industry? - Google Search

 

As the country sells its labors/services  to gain foreign currencies.

And the ratio of tourism sector earning is never so small here.

Roughly 10% of Thai GDP.

Do you remember those flamed anti-government movement during the border blockade during Corona Virus scare April 2020- May 2022?

Its cause was mostly from the hardship(poverty ) impacted by the lack of tourism income among common Thai people(reliant on foreign tourists).

Hunger of the mass of people often moves people against  own regime.

10 million people are said to be hit  by that tourism shut down during that C/virus period.

 

 

You have to distinguish between Goods and Services in GDP, Tourism is Services, exported goods is not. So that 12% is not part of the 60% in the GDP model, it is separate.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

Even CC card companies have to use foreign currency to buy Thai baht, or you want to claim they just print it?

Credit card companies such as Visa and Mastercard perform currency netting of the countries debits and credits via the central bank on a daily basis. That means they use inbound currency transactions to offset outbound currency transactions of similar currencies. Visa does not rush out and buy 7,000 baht, just to settle Fred's hotel bill!