Harris Gains Momentum in Economic Debate, Closing in on Trump

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Vice President Kamala Harris is making notable strides with voters on the economy as the nation's economic outlook continues to improve. For months, the economy has consistently topped the list of concerns for voters, a sentiment confirmed by numerous polls. Ipsos polling described it as “the single most important issue to Americans since April 2024.” While Donald Trump has maintained a lead over both President Joe Biden and Harris on this issue, the gap is steadily narrowing.

 

In a recent poll conducted by Marist College, Harris was only trailing Trump by 3 percentage points among American adults when asked who would handle the economy better. In comparison, Biden trailed by 9 points in a similar poll from June. A Fox News poll revealed a 5-point deficit for Harris, while Biden was 15 points behind Trump in a March survey.

 

The reasons for the narrowing gap aren’t entirely clear, but one likely factor is the transition from Biden to Harris as the Democratic candidate. While both are tied to the administration’s economic record, Harris has emerged as a more effective communicator. She has invigorated Democrats and independent voters in a way that Biden, especially in recent months, had not. Biden’s underwhelming performance in his debate against Trump contributed to his exit from the race, whereas Harris was widely seen as having bested Trump in their own debate earlier this year.

 

Beyond political messaging, real economic factors may be working in Harris's favor. Inflation, which peaked in June 2022, has dropped dramatically, propelling the stock market to reach new highs. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's recent decision to slash interest rates signals confidence that inflation is under control. This reduction in borrowing costs is boosting businesses, households, and consumer confidence, all of which may improve Harris’s standing with voters.

 

Political analyst Nate Silver highlighted the improving economic data as a key factor benefiting Harris. He pointed out that positive economic reviews led to a boost in his economic index, which in turn has made Harris a slight favorite in the upcoming presidential race. “That helps Harris, too,” Silver noted.

 

Messaging from both candidates also plays a role. According to veteran pollster Frank Luntz, Trump’s approach to the economy has been faltering. Luntz criticized Trump’s inability to focus on affordability, a central issue for many American households. “Every time they gave him a question on inflation, he moved it to some other issue. Every time they gave him a chance to statistically and factually differentiate himself from the vice president, he chose to make ad hominem attacks. He couldn’t stay on message,” Luntz said on C-SPAN’s “Washington Journal.” As a result, Harris gained a 2-to-1 advantage in almost every survey following the debate.

 

Still, Trump remains focused on economic issues, particularly in the manufacturing and fossil fuel sectors. In a recent interview with Sharyl Attkisson, he addressed the decline in U.S. auto production, stating, “We’ve lost 50 percent of our business over the period of 25 years. A lot of it went to Mexico, a lot of it went to China... We’re going to get it back. We will be at a level that nobody thought possible with automaking.”

 

The economy, particularly in the wake of the pandemic and years of inflation, remains a central concern for American households. Many believe it will be the decisive issue in the 2024 election. Whether families in key swing states feel better off than they were four years ago remains an open question, but recent economic metrics show significant progress.

 

The U.S. economy grew by an impressive 3 percent in the second quarter of 2024, with the Commerce Department confirming the numbers last Thursday. In response, Lael Brainard, Director of the White House National Economic Council, issued a statement praising the Biden-Harris administration’s economic performance. “We learned this morning that the economy has grown by 3.2 percent per year during the Biden-Harris Administration — even stronger than previously estimated — and better than the first three years of the previous administration,” Brainard said, while acknowledging that more work remains to lower costs for families.

 

Meanwhile, inflation has dropped to its lowest level in years, with the personal consumption expenditures price index showing just a 2.2 percent annual increase. Employment remains strong, with 142,000 jobs added in August and the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent. Median household income has also risen for the first time since 2019, reaching $80,610 in 2023, a 4-percent increase from 2022.

 

As Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a recent interview, “Inflation has come way down [and] it did so without there being a recession, which has never happened before in the U.S. and virtually anywhere in the world. And now the unemployment rate has inched its way up to a level 4.2 [percent] that a lot of people thought ahead of time — that’s basically stable full employment. That’s where you’d want to stop.”

 

Despite these positive signs, Goolsbee cautioned that some warning signs remain. The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, and while previous rate cuts in 2020, 2008, and 2001 coincided with economic slowdowns, the massive stimulus provided during the pandemic could alter the usual economic patterns.

 

Based on a report from: The Hill 2024-10-01