Could an October Surprise Shift the Deadlocked Trump-Harris Race?

[Social Media]

 

With just one month until Election Day, the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is tightly contested, resembling a fierce brawl for the presidency. National polls, as well as those in key battleground states, indicate a deadlock, with the outcome likely to hinge on slim margins. In such a scenario, as presidential historian David Greenberg from Rutgers University notes, “A difference of a percentage point or two could be decisive.”

 

While campaign teams are working tirelessly to gain that edge, the possibility of an unexpected event, an “October surprise,” looms large. Such events can dramatically alter the course of a campaign in the crucial final weeks. Historically, October surprises, such as Trump’s Access Hollywood tape in 2016 or the revelation of Hillary Clinton’s emails, have derailed candidates and left them little time to recover.

 

This week alone saw multiple developments that could influence the race. Hurricane Helene ravaged two pivotal battlegrounds, Georgia and North Carolina, claiming over 130 lives and bringing humanitarian concerns to the forefront of political discourse. Kamala Harris, while pledging long-term aid, visited affected areas, declaring, “We’re here for the long haul.” Meanwhile, Trump criticized relief efforts, inaccurately claiming that funds were diverted to assist migrants. This attack, if it resonates with voters dissatisfied with the government’s response, could affect the outcome in these tightly contested states.

 

The escalating war in Gaza is another potential factor. The conflict, which threatens to expand into a regional war, has further complicated the political landscape. While Harris, aligning with the Biden administration, has promised to continue supplying arms to Israel, this stance risks alienating critical voter blocs within her party, particularly Arab-Americans in Michigan and younger, anti-war voters. At the same time, rising oil prices, triggered by fears that Israel may target Iranian refineries, could impact voter sentiment, particularly given Americans' sensitivity to increases at the pump.

 

Despite these challenges, Harris and the Democrats received good news regarding the economy. Recent employment figures showed strong job growth and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%. However, Greenberg notes that voters’ concerns about the economy often go beyond current figures. “What they’re really complaining about is the longer-term failure in certain parts of the country,” particularly de-industrialized rural communities, he says. Trump has consistently performed better than Harris when voters are asked who would handle the economy more effectively, though recent surveys suggest that lead might be narrowing.

 

One potential economic threat for the Democrats, a dockworkers strike that had halted ports on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, dissipated this week after both parties agreed to return to negotiations in January. Had the strike continued, it could have disrupted supply chains and driven up consumer prices right before the election. Additionally, the number of undocumented crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has returned to pre-pandemic levels, lessening the sense of urgency surrounding the border crisis.

 

Trump, however, hasn’t had a smooth week either. His involvement in the January 6 Capitol riot resurfaced when a federal judge released a document from special counsel Jack Smith, detailing Trump’s alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. This renewed focus on his actions during the insurrection could play to Harris’s advantage, especially since a recent CNN poll shows that voters trust her more than Trump on issues of “protecting democracy.”

 

As Election Day draws closer, the potential for an October surprise remains ever-present. Even a small shift in public opinion could prove decisive in a race where victory could be determined by tens of thousands of votes in swing states. “I could totally imagine this election going either way,” says Greenberg, “with extremely significant consequences riding on that vote no matter where your loyalty is.”

 

Based on a report from BBC 2024-10-07

 

 

 

[Captain Flack]

A reported post using nicknames against forum rules has been removed.  If you don’t want your post to be removed, use names correctly.

 

[mfd101]

Anything can happen. A stumble here, an obvious lie there, a 'misspoke' somewhere else.

 

Looks like being fascinating till the end, watching a once-great nation falling apart.

[jippytum]

It's amazing Trump  is still a forerunner in the run up to this election. 

Every dirty trick in the legal book has been thrown at him  attempting  to imprison or bankrupt him. 

This may have been overdone to some extent 

and Americans object to that. Well enough of them to win an election...  maybe !! 

[Tug]

18 minutes ago, jippytum said:

It's amazing Trump  is still a forerunner in the run up to this election. 

Every dirty trick in the legal book has been thrown at him  attempting  to imprison or bankrupt him. 

This may have been overdone to some extent 

and Americans object to that. Well enough of them to win an election...  maybe !! 

30,573 lies during his administration found guilty of embezzling from HIS charity found guilty of sexual assault found guilty of paying off a sex worker then trying to hide the FACT twice impeached once for trying to strong arm another nation for lies to attack his political opponent the second time for an attempted coup( lots of countries he would allready be in prison or worse….the bankruptcy’s the scandals jippytum those aren’t dirty tricks by opponents those are things he DID we all see it there were no dirty tricks only one very corrupt mentality ill man who has never faced consequences for his deeds.

[neeray]

20 minutes ago, jippytum said:

It's amazing Trump  is still a forerunner in the run up to this election. 

Every dirty trick in the legal book has been thrown at him  attempting  to imprison or bankrupt him. 

This may have been overdone to some extent 

and Americans object to that. Well enough of them to win an election...  maybe !! 

I see it more as Trump has pulled "every dirty trick in the legal book". Whatever has been "thrown at him", he deserved and brought this sh*t on himself. Inciting a riot to support his government takeover effort is one pretty good example! Lives were lost and now it has come out that Mike Pence's life was in danger, and what did Trump say when told? Trump just said, "SO WHAT". 

[morrobay]

Ok guilty as charged ∆∆∆. But does all that matters to the voters compared to the Billions given to Ukraine and the Billions spent on illegal aliens. At the expense to the US and it's  citizens ?.  

 

 

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/

[Tug]

16 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Ok guilty as charged ∆∆∆. But does all that matters to the voters compared to the Billions given to Ukraine and the Billions spent on illegal aliens. At the expense to the US and it's  citizens ?.  

 

 

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/

Straight out of the putin playbook……..

[spidermike007]

It doesn't appear that anything can happen in terms of a revelation about Trump's moral bankruptcy, previous crimes, or lack of character, which will influence his supporters. Most are aware of who he is, and what he is, and they're planning on voting for him anyway.

 

So what could happen that could influence the campaign would be some ugly revelations about Harris. Let's see what happens, I still think it's her election to win. 

[Hanaguma]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

30,573 lies during his administration found guilty of embezzling from HIS charity found guilty of sexual assault found guilty of paying off a sex worker then trying to hide the FACT twice impeached once for trying to strong arm another nation for lies to attack his political opponent the second time for an attempted coup( lots of countries he would allready be in prison or worse….the bankruptcy’s the scandals jippytum those aren’t dirty tricks by opponents those are things he DID we all see it there were no dirty tricks only one very corrupt mentality ill man who has never faced consequences for his deeds.

...None of which matters when groceries and rent cost too much. Which they do under the current administration.  What you and many on the left simply don't understand is that many Americans aren't voting for Trump to be pastor. They are voting for Trump to be President. Warts and all, they think as President he will do a better job than Harris, based on his track record of low unemployment, low inflation, low prics, and low interest rates.  

 

[Hanaguma]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

Straight out of the putin playbook……..

That is the standard dodge when confronted with uncomfortable facts. Like the untold billions wasted in Ukraine that could have been spent in America on American people, helping THEIR industry and exports. 

[newnative]

     I think the hurricane was the October surprise, at the expense of the Harris campaign.  No matter how great the response to a natural disaster, efforts are usually judged by large numbers to be lacking, whether they actually are or not.  I think this will also be the case with the hurricane.  It's a win-win for Trump as he's not in charge of the cleanup and can just sit back and lie and criticize--about the only things he is good at.   Hopefully, there's not another bad surprise waiting in the wings . . .

[CallumWK]

2 minutes ago, newnative said:

     I think the hurricane was the October surprise, at the expense of the Harris campaign.  No matter how great the response to a natural disaster, efforts are usually judged by large numbers to be lacking, whether they actually are or not.  I think this will also be the case with the hurricane.  It's a win-win for Trump as he's not in charge of the cleanup and can just sit back and lie and criticize--about the only things he is good at.   Hopefully, there's not another bad surprise waiting in the wings . . .

 

You mean as in, with the hurricane the incompetence of the current administration is in full display to all, just in case they were fooled by madam word salad campaign?

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

That is the standard dodge when confronted with uncomfortable facts. Like the untold billions wasted in Ukraine that could have been spent in America on American people, helping THEIR industry and exports. 

 

5 hours ago, Tug said:

Straight out of the putin playbook……..

Right the standard dodge/ trite off the wall one liners/ and endless, irrelevant mumbo jumbo when confronted with facts - Because that's all they got. 

[Wrwest]

6 hours ago, morrobay said:

Ok guilty as charged ∆∆∆. But does all that matters to the voters compared to the Billions given to Ukraine and the Billions spent on illegal aliens. At the expense to the US and it's  citizens ?.  

 

 

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/

And thanks be given to Trump for declaring the bi-partisan Bill be killed so he could use it as a political campaign issue ...

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Like the untold billions wasted in Ukraine that could have been spent in America on American people, helping THEIR industry and exports. 

So you think it's in the US' interest to allow the Russians to take over Ukraine?