Addiction

[illisdean]

More bad news thanks to Biden/Harris, team failure, team "trump is a fascist, Trump is hitler, MAGA supporters are fascists" etc all orchestrated to divert you from the reality based destruction the Biden/Harris admin reigned on America since 2021. Utter failure. If anyone buys groceries, fuels up their vehicle, pays insurance premiums etc before they go vote they wont vote for the west coast imbecile!

 

 

[Danderman123]

23 minutes ago, mogandave said:

And there won’t be as long as the investigation can be blocked. 

There is no information that York County is being blocked from reviewing voter registration forms.

[dinsdale]

This is mainly based on the Polymarket betting odds and the AI txt to speech isn't great so make of it what you will.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by dinsdale

[Danderman123]

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This is mainly based on the Polymarket betting odds and the AI txt to speech isn't great so make of it what you will.

 

The betting odds are based only on the money bet on each side. Since some French guy dropped $30 million of crypto money on Trump, the odds are in Trump's favor.

 

So, you have been influenced by foreign money. Sucker.

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The betting odds are based only on the money bet on each side. Since some French guy dropped $30 million of crypto money on Trump, the odds are in Trump's favor.

 

So, you have been influenced by foreign money. Sucker.

So you didn't watch it. If you had you would know this is about state by state betting and betting trends. As for $30 million in crypto overall this is small change.

Edited 2 hours ago by dinsdale

[dinsdale]

Here's something to think about. Trump wins Presidency in Electoral College. Trump wins popular vote. Republicans win the Senate. Republicans win the House. This IS a possibility.

[Danderman123]

41 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

So you didn't watch it. If you had you would know this is about state by state betting and betting trends. As for $30 million in crypto overall this is small change.

Again, you don't understand that betting odds are not predictive.

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-s-odds-near-67-as-polymarket-whale-bets-another-2-m

 

$2 million was enough to impact Polymarket betting odds yesterday.

 

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Again, you don't understand that betting odds are not predictive.

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-s-odds-near-67-as-polymarket-whale-bets-another-2-m

 

$2 million was enough to impact Polymarket betting odds yesterday.

 

Did I say it was? No I didn't. I clearly stated that the above vid is based on Polymarket betting odds and make of it what you will. I will obviously need to simplify my language so as to not cause any future misunderstandings.

[Danderman123]

Just now, dinsdale said:

Did I say it was? No I didn't. I clearly stated that the above vid is based on Polymarket betting odds and make of it what you will. I will obviously need to simplify my language so as to not cause any future misunderstandings.

As long as you don't claim that betting odds are predictive.

[mdr224]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Again, you don't understand that betting odds are not predictive.

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-s-odds-near-67-as-polymarket-whale-bets-another-2-m

 

$2 million was enough to impact Polymarket betting odds yesterday.

 

Youve stated repeatedly that trump has already lost. Would you put money on it? Why is your prediction better than theirs?

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Youve stated repeatedly that trump has already lost. Would you put money on it? Why is your prediction better than theirs?

Trump could win if he has massive turnout on Election Day. Unlikely, but possible.

 

The guy who is sure Trump will lose is @Yellowtail. You can go torture him.

[dinsdale]

45 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As long as you don't claim that betting odds are predictive.

Maybe you should read this 

"Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market," 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket is an American financial,City and offering event contracts.

or this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/10/23/prediction-markets-how-reliable-are-they-really-part-1/

or this

(this is behind a paywall but there is one sentence visible)

"Polymarket offers a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election...."

https://fortune.com/2024/10/22/trump-musk-harris-election-presidency-polymarket-crypto/

Polymarket is part of the prediction market so it must follow that Polymarket is indeed seen as a predictor. I suggest you do some homework before commenting on something you clearly state as NOT being a predictor.

Edited 1 hour ago by dinsdale

[Danderman123]

Just now, dinsdale said:

Maybe you should read this 

Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market, 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket is an American financial,City and offering event contracts.

or this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/10/23/prediction-markets-how-reliable-are-they-really-part-1/

or this

(this is behind a paywall but there is one sentence visible)

"Polymarket offers a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election...."

https://fortune.com/2024/10/22/trump-musk-harris-election-presidency-polymarket-crypto/

Polymarket is part of the prediction market so it must follow that Polymarket is indeed seen as a predictor. I suggest you do some homework before commenting on something you clearly state as NOT being a predictor.

Polymarket odds are based on money invested on one side or the other, not general public opinion.

 

Despite the opinion you posted, there is no way for Polymarket to have any predictive value.

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Polymarket odds are based on money invested on one side or the other, not general public opinion.

 

Despite the opinion you posted, there is no way for Polymarket to have any predictive value.

Here's a few of quotes from an academic paper submitted to the University of Arizona titled 

PREDICTION MARKETS VS. POLITICAL POLLS: FORECASTING ELECTION OUTCOMES

"Overall, both prediction market contract prices and polling scores both sources accurately predicted the winner of the nomination within the last few days of the race. But the prediction market contract price data more quickly responded to key milestones during the race for the nomination which allowed the market to predict a winner with larger margins when compared to the polling scores."

 

"New research has shown that prediction markets are effective at predicting future events because of their timeliness and ability to adapt to new information more quickly than other forecasting and polling methods (Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, 2012)."

 

"There is evidence that changes in the candidates’ prediction market contract prices are positively correlated with candidates associated polling scores. Since contract prices and polling scores are positively correlated it can be inferred that if there is an increase/decrease in a candidate contract price the associated polling score will also increase/decrease."

https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/666656/azu_etd_hr_2021_0133_sip1_m.pdf?sequence=1

I'm sure you'll find a way to argue that Polymarket isn't a predictor even with what I have posted to support my argument shows it is.

 

 

[earlinclaifornia]

I think that anyone who bets Polymarket is the same as money exchangers.

Keep a spread to encourage the bets as they make money both sides. 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Here's a few of quotes from an academic paper submitted to the University of Arizona titled 

PREDICTION MARKETS VS. POLITICAL POLLS: FORECASTING ELECTION OUTCOMES

"Overall, both prediction market contract prices and polling scores both sources accurately predicted the winner of the nomination within the last few days of the race. But the prediction market contract price data more quickly responded to key milestones during the race for the nomination which allowed the market to predict a winner with larger margins when compared to the polling scores."

 

"New research has shown that prediction markets are effective at predicting future events because of their timeliness and ability to adapt to new information more quickly than other forecasting and polling methods (Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, 2012)."

 

"There is evidence that changes in the candidates’ prediction market contract prices are positively correlated with candidates associated polling scores. Since contract prices and polling scores are positively correlated it can be inferred that if there is an increase/decrease in a candidate contract price the associated polling score will also increase/decrease."

https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/666656/azu_etd_hr_2021_0133_sip1_m.pdf?sequence=1

I'm sure you'll find a way to argue that Polymarket isn't a predictor even with what I have posted to support my argument shows it is.

 

 

Here's what's predictive:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/michigan-results

 

Republicans are sucking wind in Michigan early voting. Maybe more important is that 56% of early voters are female, a very bad sign for Trump.

 

Pennsylvania is almost a lock for Harris, and Michigan is trending well. Add Wisconsin, and Trump is done.

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, earlinclaifornia said:

I think that anyone who bets Polymarket is the same as money exchangers.

Keep a spread to encourage the bets as they make money both sides. 

Some French guy is putting big money on Trump on Polymarket, and so the low information types think that means Trump will win.

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here's what's predictive:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/michigan-results

 

Republicans are sucking wind in Michigan early voting. Maybe more important is that 56% of early voters are female, a very bad sign for Trump.

 

Pennsylvania is almost a lock for Harris, and Michigan is trending well. Add Wisconsin, and Trump is done.

 

I'd take the opinion of experienced financial institutions investing large amounts of their or their clients money over those of a leftist TV station.

 

Anyway, you'll find out next week. 😆  

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Some French guy is putting big money on Trump on Polymarket, and so the low information types think that means Trump will win.

Ok. It's time for you to put your money where your mouth is. Where's your evidence that says Polymarket isn't a predictor and the prediction market is somehow not a predictor? So far all you have done is say it isn't and show an NBC poll and talk about a French guy. Not exactly a pass mark when debating a point.

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Since some French guy dropped $30 million of crypto money on Trump, the odds are in Trump's favor.

 

You clearly have no idea how much money is being put on this election. 😆

 

30 Million? Wouldn't even make a ripple. 

[dinsdale]

'Prediction markets are places where people have money on the line, skin in the game. People don't lie with their money.'

Kalshi, Polymarket and other such platforms have quickly emerged as a way to put money on elections legally and gauge who's ahead, after cycles in which when pollster forecasts crashed and burned.

The opinion polls, which involve asking people how they plan to vote, said then-candidate Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Trump in 2016. 

In the end, it was close and the Democrat lost — the polls could not have been more wrong.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/us-politics/article-14011085/man-2024-election-betting-odds-predictor-polls-tarek-mansour.html

[earlinclaifornia]

Harris campaign says 75,000 people at Ellipse speech – 22,000 more than Trump’s Jan 6 crowd at same spot

https://www.yahoo.com/news/harris-campaign-says-75-000-005656870.html