A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market

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Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market...

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win. 

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

https://archive.ph/1UnKO#selection-5913.0-5913.174

[CallumWK]

Polymarket is just one betting site where Trump outperforms Harris by far. You got nothing

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/17/trumps-polymarket-odds-top-60-how-election-betting-markets-differ-from-polls/

 

The nascent election betting market landscape is not the only financial instrument moving toward a Trump victory. Shares in Trump Media and Technology Group, the Truth Social’s parent company primarily owned by Trump, are up 86% in October, with the low-revenue social media company’s stock movement often viewed as a proxy for Trump’s election odds. And “you can see” evidence in the broader stock market that investors are “very convinced Trump is going to win,” billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told Bloomberg Thursday.

[herfiehandbag]

Really?

 

Massive bets placed in imaginary currency with a virtual bookmakers,

all of which can be wiped away with a click of the mouse!

[mdr224]

If i had 30 million dollars id put it on trump winning too

[Chomper Higgot]

17 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

If i had 30 million dollars id put it on trump winning too

Which probably relates to why you don’t have $30million.

[mdr224]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Which probably relates to why you don’t have $30million.

Im not gonna take offense to that. I dont know why anyone with 30 million would post on a forum about thailand

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, herfiehandbag said:

Really?

 

Massive bets placed in imaginary currency with a virtual bookmakers,

all of which can be wiped away with a click of the mouse!

 

So you decide to ignore the results of the other 7 betting platforms, simply because the OP can build a conspiracy theory on the 8th ?

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4 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

So you decide to ignore the results of the other 7 betting platforms, simply because the OP can build a conspiracy theory on the 8th ?

Has anyone investigated those betting platforms? Is DJT a heavily traded stock?

[CallumWK]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Has anyone investigated those betting platforms? Is DJT a heavily traded stock?

 

You want to claim now every betting platform is a conspiracy owned by Trump and consorts?

My link was from a very credible source.

If you want an answer to your questions, do some research, and post the results.

In the meantime, you got nothing

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

You want to claim now every betting platform is a conspiracy owned by Trump and consorts?

My link was from a very credible source.

If you want an answer to your questions, do some research, and post the results.

In the meantime, you got nothing

US Warns 'Manipulation Has Happened' Due to Betting on Elections

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-betting-markets-warning-manipulation-1954815

 

Another explanation is biased betting. That is, that Trump supporters are more likely to bet than are others. The performance of DJT stock provides very strong evidence of this kind of bias. It's clear that there is little evidence to support the price. Its revenues are meager and its prospects are dismal. It's clearly way overpriced. It's a meme stock. And the odds of a payoff are obviously far worse than they are for an actual bet placed with a betting service. And yet its price has been rebounding.

 

[bendejo]

If I had $30 million I wouldn't think about gambling.

 

 

[pedro01]

My understanding is that the odds are set to balance the books. If too many bets go on one side, the OTHER side gets more attractive odds to encourage betting.

 

It's not predictive

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, pedro01 said:

My understanding is that the odds are set to balance the books. If too many bets go on one side, the OTHER side gets more attractive odds to encourage betting.

 

It's not predictive

It's surprising how many gamblers don't understand how the betting odds are established.

[Berkshire]

8 hours ago, bendejo said:

If I had $30 million I wouldn't think about gambling.

 

 

If you were someone like, say, Putin or Musk, 30 mil is not exactly a huge amount of money.

[Jim Blue]

On 10/20/2024 at 7:08 AM, mdr224 said:

If i had 30 million dollars id put it on trump winning too

mdr if I had 30 million I'd toss you for it !

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, Jim Blue said:

mdr if I had 30 million I'd toss you for it !

You might want to rephrase that before he takes you up on the offer.