Will Fear of Mutually Assured Destruction Keep Us Safe in a New Nuclear Era?

[Social Media]

 

As the specter of nuclear conflict looms larger than it has in decades, global leaders face a world where mutually assured destruction (MAD) might once again be the sole deterrent against catastrophic warfare. The escalating threats of nuclear weapons usage, paired with the dismantling of arms control agreements, are creating a precarious new global order where the fear of annihilation remains humanity’s last line of defense.  

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has added a chilling layer to the Russia-Ukraine conflict by openly suggesting the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. This marks a stark shift from the post-Cold War era when nuclear threats seemed to have receded into history. Putin’s rhetoric has angered the West, but his actions are part of a broader global trend of nuclear rearmament and brinkmanship. As international détente crumbles, countries are racing to modernize arsenals, explore nuclear programs, and exploit the fear such weapons inspire.  

 

The nuclear ambitions of nations like Iran and North Korea further complicate this landscape. Iran has moved closer to building a bomb, particularly after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to test advanced ballistic missiles, such as the Hwasong-19, cementing its reputation as a nation willing to integrate preemptive nuclear strikes into its military doctrine. With an estimated 30-50 warheads, the country’s focus now lies on ensuring it has reliable means of delivery, making its threats increasingly credible.  

 

The MAD doctrine, a product of Cold War calculations, once ensured that nuclear war was unthinkable due to its catastrophic consequences. As J. Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, eloquently described in 1960, “We may be likened to two scorpions in a bottle, each capable of killing the other, but only at the risk of his own life.” This doctrine held that no conceivable strategic gain could justify the destruction of cities, millions of deaths, or the end of civilization.  

 

However, Putin’s nuclear doctrine challenges MAD’s foundational assumptions. By threatening to use smaller tactical nuclear weapons—far less destructive than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki—he introduces a form of warfare that the original MAD framework did not account for. These weapons, capable of being fired from artillery or short-range missiles, could deliver decisive battlefield advantages while avoiding the full-scale retaliation that MAD traditionally guaranteed.  

 

Ukraine’s unique vulnerability exacerbates this danger. Having relinquished the Soviet nuclear arsenal on its territory in exchange for security assurances that Russia has since violated, Ukraine is defenseless against such threats. Should Russia deploy tactical nuclear weapons, it could secure victory without risking retaliation from Western nuclear powers, such as the United States, Britain, or France, which have been hesitant to intervene directly in the conflict.  

 

The unraveling of arms control agreements compounds the crisis. With no active efforts to renew the START treaty, enforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or revive the Iran nuclear deal, the international community is left without the frameworks that once curbed nuclear proliferation. Simultaneously, China’s rapidly expanding arsenal and the collapsing security order in the Middle East add layers of instability.

 

In this fractured landscape, MAD remains the last, fragile bulwark against catastrophe. Yet, as the rules and doctrines of the past are redefined, the question remains: can the fear of mutual destruction still serve as a deterrent in a world increasingly willing to gamble on the unthinkable?

 

Based on a report by The Times 2024-11-26

 

 

 

[JimHuaHin]

Short answer "no"; not with the "wacko" psychopaths (about to be) in power.

[dinsdale]

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

[b17]

Putler is an insane war criminal, but he is also a coward. He is quite aware that any use of nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical, will bring an immediate NATO response that will destroy him and his armies almost instantly, WITHOUT the need for NATO to even use their own nuclear arsenal. People need to NEVER appease him as he only responds to overwhelming opposition, the likes of which are on every border surrounding Russia. He cares too much about himself to sacrifice his hold on power for his demented vision of a so called "reunited Soviet Union". 

Trump also employs fear tactics to bluff his way along. For example, he is anticipating that millions of illegal immigrants will flee the US on their own accord due to concerns about a government "round up". However, if you run the numbers on what it would take to remove 10 million people from the US, it immediately becomes obvious that he'll NEVER be able to carry out this stupid idea...just as he NEVER built the wall that Mexico was going to pay for. 

 

[renaissanc]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

I think so too. Putin loves to rattle his sabre.

[thesetat2013]

6 hours ago, b17 said:

Putler is an insane war criminal, but he is also a coward. He is quite aware that any use of nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical, will bring an immediate NATO response that will destroy him and his armies almost instantly, WITHOUT the need for NATO to even use their own nuclear arsenal. People need to NEVER appease him as he only responds to overwhelming opposition, the likes of which are on every border surrounding Russia. He cares too much about himself to sacrifice his hold on power for his demented vision of a so called "reunited Soviet Union". 

Trump also employs fear tactics to bluff his way along. For example, he is anticipating that millions of illegal immigrants will flee the US on their own accord due to concerns about a government "round up". However, if you run the numbers on what it would take to remove 10 million people from the US, it immediately becomes obvious that he'll NEVER be able to carry out this stupid idea...just as he NEVER built the wall that Mexico was going to pay for. 

 

I think, you are wrong about Trump. Unless the Democratic opposition does things to prevent or stall what he wants done. I think he can accomplish a lot of what he says he can. The huge deportation may take some time though. Already there are states saying they will not adhere to any policy Trump makes about deportation. So he will enter the office fighting those first. I was reading, that is really legal for him to order the military to aid in that. The laws they have setup do not apply to this situation. 

What I really think they need to do is make a census. Send out thousands to count the people and see if they are legal. Then send the teams to hunt the illegals down and deport them. 

For those who do not agree. I am talking about the illegal immigrants... Not the legal ones...

[JonnyF]

Things will settle down quickly once Biden's warmongering ways are removed from the white house.

 

Let's hope he doesn't throw any more fuel on the fire before he leaves. 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

Face it, Putin will never be allowed to leave Russia as he will be arrested for war crimes. So he is either going to be 'killed' off by a moderate russian, or killed off by KGB style mafia or die and the war never ending. 

 

Every day the reparations bill gets bigger, Russia will have to pay so much as to be totally broke for generations

[candide]

1 hour ago, thesetat2013 said:

I think, you are wrong about Trump. Unless the Democratic opposition does things to prevent or stall what he wants done. I think he can accomplish a lot of what he says he can. The huge deportation may take some time though. Already there are states saying they will not adhere to any policy Trump makes about deportation. So he will enter the office fighting those first. I was reading, that is really legal for him to order the military to aid in that. The laws they have setup do not apply to this situation. 

What I really think they need to do is make a census. Send out thousands to count the people and see if they are legal. Then send the teams to hunt the illegals down and deport them. 

For those who do not agree. I am talking about the illegal immigrants... Not the legal ones...

And thus create a surge of inflation (together with promised high tariffs) , right on time for the midterms!

Of course, as usual, he will blame someone else for it! 😁

[transam]

8 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

In 24 hours....................🤣

[Denim]

I could be very wrong but I just can't see either side dropping a nuke on Petchabun. I have poured over google maps looking for something of strategic value but so far nothing. 

 

So . Are we safe in Petchabun ? I think so. Safer here than back in Europe . 

 

So really .....what it boils down to is how much of a nut case is Putin ?  Admit defeat and push the button. I don't think so. He is winning it on the front lines , albeit at terrible human and economic cost so it seems probable that he will just keep grinding away at it whilst acting like a rattle snake making loud noises to sow doubt in his enemies while he nibbles away at Ukrainian territory. Trump can pontificate but both sides might choose to put him on ignore.

[dinsdale]

8 hours ago, b17 said:

Putler is an insane war criminal, but he is also a coward. He is quite aware that any use of nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical, will bring an immediate NATO response that will destroy him and his armies almost instantly, WITHOUT the need for NATO to even use their own nuclear arsenal. People need to NEVER appease him as he only responds to overwhelming opposition, the likes of which are on every border surrounding Russia. He cares too much about himself to sacrifice his hold on power for his demented vision of a so called "reunited Soviet Union". 

Trump also employs fear tactics to bluff his way along. For example, he is anticipating that millions of illegal immigrants will flee the US on their own accord due to concerns about a government "round up". However, if you run the numbers on what it would take to remove 10 million people from the US, it immediately becomes obvious that he'll NEVER be able to carry out this stupid idea...just as he NEVER built the wall that Mexico was going to pay for. 

 

Almost is the key word. Almost instantly is not fast enough to stop a counter strike. This is the basis of MAD and why it's a deterrence not a strategy for attack. You're segue into Trump and the boarder is simply ridiculous and completely off topic.

[thesetat2013]

47 minutes ago, candide said:

And thus create a surge of inflation (together with promised high tariffs) , right on time for the midterms!

Of course, as usual, he will blame someone else for it! 😁

Why would he need to blame anyone else. Biden already got inflation so high. It will take a lot to bring it down again. So no need worry about blaming Trump when Biden made it all happen already.. 

[candide]

7 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

Why would he need to blame anyone else. Biden already got inflation so high. It will take a lot to bring it down again. So no need worry about blaming Trump when Biden made it all happen already.. 

The rate of inflation is already under control. The current rate of annual inflation is 2.6% and should be 2.4% at the end of the year. The Fed forecasts 2.2% in 2025 and 2026 under current conditions (the current Biden policies). That's the inflation trend Trump will inherit from Biden.

 

So it will be very simple: either Trump will do better than the 2.2% forecast, or worse.