Russia’s economy is doomed

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, MicroB said:

What's your evidence that Russia was not trying to annex all of Ukraine.

Looking at a map might help. Ukraine is rather large and short of a declaration of war and a full mobilization, a limited operation had no show of conquering all of Ukraine.

Perhaps some on here think Putin is as demented as Biden was/ is, but he hasn't remained in power by being that stupid.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Russia, and its economy is in deep do-do. Russia's demographic situation is terrible, same problem in China, Japan and South korea etc. If you want to look into the falling population crisis in places like Russia, then go watch some of the geopolitical anaysis by Peter Zeihan on YouTube... very good stuff.

As for Russia's economy, it's got to the point where it can't really afford to lose the war, or win it. If it loses the war, then it's done, if it wins the war, then it can't afford to rebuild the territory it has taken and its war economy will suddenly wind down creating havoc. Many observers are saying that Russia is suffering from what is known as "Dutch disease" (basically, the sudden rapid over-development and reliance on/of one sector of an economy, like natural resourses, at the decline of others... thus sparking lots of problems). There is also a problem of brain drain in Russia as all the well-educated scientists and engineers from the Soviet times and quality educational institutions from back in the day are dying out, and the Russian universities are not what they used to be.

The economy is Putin's achillies heel because if the oligarths and elites aren't making money, then he's not upholding his end of the deal, which was that you can get rich and keep it if you stay out of politics. On top of that, it is the intelligence agencies like the FSB who decide what happens and who runs what (and Putin is from that group too). If the elites and intelligence agencies decide Putin is no longer their man... well, anything could happen.

Russia's economy is overheating due the churning military producion industrial complex and inflation is way out of control, probably a lot worse than official figures say, and the currency is becoming worthless... with China and its Yuan that can only help so far as the Chinese are worried about secondary sanctions being placed on it.

Russia is in big trouble and it is a vast country to hold together with so many minorities that are hardly in love with Moscow. Russia could easily fragment into like 30 countries if it goes properly south.

However, this is all of Putin's own making due to him chasing the long held ambitions of previous rulers of Russia... all about securing the entry points to the vast open plains and steppes of central Russia. Russia has long sort natural barriers as protection from invasion, and during the Soviet Union's time they controlled all of them (think there are 7). This is why the Russians are so interested in the Caucuses as that is one, Moldova is another and that's on the other side of Ukraine, Poland and Estonia are another (think the Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad etc.). It is these places Putin wants to control as it then makes invasion of the Russian interior almost impossible and this is what is fueling the Russian aggression... look what happened in Operation Barbarossa in WW2.

Why now? Putin knows that time is running out and that the demographic and economic time bomb will mean that delay will equal they won't be able to do it later, it's try now or it will never happen.

"Times they are a changin" and the newer generations aren't interest in imperial conquest so much... look how many young and talented Russians have fled as they have no interest in war.

There are few things as dangerous as the nostalgia of old men.

Interesting post, but you made no suggestion of what it may lead to.

 

In the event that you are right as to "If it loses the war, then it's done"  one might hope that Russia doesn't lose, as some of us know what the ultimate play would likely be- the Thatcher solution to impending political defeat.

 

There are few things as dangerous as a politician facing defeat, especially when they have a large military to go adventuring with.

 

I'll leave you to remember what saved the west from the Great Depression of the 1930s.

[frank83628]

5 hours ago, MicroB said:

 

So why did they bother packing victory parade uniforms?

 

Russia had a 10 day plan to seize Kyiv, and then complete the full annexation of Ukraine by August 2022.

 

What's your evidence that Russia was not trying to annex all of Ukraine. Putin's speech on 24 February 2022 is not evidence.

Putin was concentrating on the 3 areas in the East where ethnic Russians were being slaughtered by Azov.

Packed Victory uniforms?? Haha, swallow that propaganda!

Were they all in little samsonites along with a packed lunch

[frank83628]

On 2/2/2025 at 6:03 AM, MicroB said:

 

 

The US didn't go to "conquer Afghanistan". They went to support the Northern  Alliance against the Taliban. They successfully instilled a Northern Alliance government. Subsequently, Afghanistan had several elections and changes of government. The USSR actually went to conquer Afghainistan in 1979, using Spetznatz to wipe out the existing presidency.

 

Putin;s war aims were to topple the Kyiv government and take over Ukraine as a client state. During the original Russian debacle, Russian supply convoys were intercepted containing, of all things, dress uniforms, intended for a victory parade through Kyiv. Russian officers had also placed dinner reservations in the city. Among the troops captured in that invasion wave were OMON and SOBR troops. OMON is a gendarmerie in Russia, used for  riot duty. Back in those days, we thought this nonsense would have been ended, because among these POWs were a pair of pretty sensible OMON officers, a grizzled Colonel (Lt. Col. Astakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich) and a wounded Major. Both were clearly police professionals, who had been deployed to Belarus with Russian troops to support an exercise, so were somewhat puzzled about what subsequently happened. Among the kit captured was OMON issue riot gear, with Russia anticipating the need to suppress civil unrest. The full plan by OMON and SOBR to decapitate Kyiv is remarkable (https://thedebrief.org/know-no-mercy-the-russian-cops-who-tried-to-storm-kyiv-by-themselves/)

 

Putin fully intended to conquer Ukraine. You are an Apologist.

 captain gullible 

[frank83628]

11 hours ago, MicroB said:

 

Its happening to both sides sadly. Part of the motivation of Putin's aggression was demographic certainty. Putin has always bewailed the loss of the Soviet Union. and it being a great tragedy. But its a Russian saying that. The reason he sees it as a great tragedy is not the loss of fraternal relationships with other Soviet people, but the fragmentation of Rus people, who are left scattered. He couldn't care less about the other peoples; they existed to serve the Russian people. He feels a sense of injustice at the end of the Cold War, and we might think, like the Versailles Agreement, there is something in that. Hitler felt great injustice with Versailles because it left Germanic peoples fragmented.

 

Like many others before him, Putin has misjudged the winds of change, just as those misunderstood the words spoken in 1918, 1945, 1988, 1990, 2001, 2003. Whether it was the end of WW1, the defeat of Nazi of Germany, the Polish shipbuilders strikes of 1981, the 1991 collapse of the USSR, the defeat of Iraq, 911, 2003 Euromaidan, what  Putin has failed to understand is that history is the product of movements, not individual people. In his positoon as an isolated autocratic ruler, he believes he wields great power, as an individual, and we see that in Russian government footage of him hectoring officials, and the basis of his supposed expertise in many areas. He thinks this is how the world is run. I suspect Trump thinks this as well, because that's how he ran his dad's companies.

 

The United States is in the midst of a struggle between two peoples with differing visions for the US. I'm not sure how that will play out. It may well end up in a transformation of the settled status of North America, like Europe after 1918 and 1988. I wouldn't say that means a bigger US, but a different US.

 

Its great that you know how Putin feels and his thoughts, do you do Tarot and read Tea too?

[frank83628]

23 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It has been suggested that the CIA did not intend that the Russians would fail entirely, but wanted to bleed them for as long as possible, and that policy was probably working well till Gorbachev took over and withdrew the Russians from Afghanistan.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

At a 30 March meeting, U.S. Department of Defense representative Walter B. Slocombe "asked if there was value in keeping the Afghan insurgency going, 'sucking the Soviets into a Vietnamese quagmire?'"[18] When asked to clarify this remark, Slocombe explained: "Well, the whole idea was that if the Soviets decided to strike at this tar baby [Afghanistan] we had every interest in making sure that they got stuck."

 

 

It's a pity that they supported the wrong alliance, having backed the Pakistani choice, as we know how that turned out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

Of the seven mujahideen groups supported by Zia's government, four espoused Islamic fundamentalist beliefs—and these fundamentalists received most of the funding.

Clinton has said in the beginning that dragging the Ukraine war out as long as possible would be a good way to damage their economy

[thaibeachlovers]

44 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

Putin was concentrating on the 3 areas in the East where ethnic Russians were being slaughtered by Azov.

Packed Victory uniforms?? Haha, swallow that propaganda!

Were they all in little samsonites along with a packed lunch

Seems we have a few that will believe any nonsense as long as it supports their chosen narrative.

[thaibeachlovers]

37 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

Its great that you know how Putin feels and his thoughts, do you do Tarot and read Tea too?

I think the D man may have passed his crystal ball on to him, but then perhaps the D Man is back under a new username.