Why China will prevail over the US in this crazy world of Trump 2.0

[theblether]

22 minutes ago, placnx said:

I agree that it's unlikely that Trump will do any better with China than last time. That said, it's Clinton's fault for getting China into the WTO. And of course, the resultiong China shock was one of the reasons for Trump's success in getting elected. (Another reason was Obama's ham-fisted mismanagement of the mortgage debacle).

 

We should have set up a different trade regime for countries like China, with a lot of SOEs (state-owned enterprises). Hopefully working in tandem with the EU, dividing up airplane sales between Boeing and Airbus. My idea was rather diabolical - licensing factories to export to the US with approvals based on a point system, so the highest ranking applications would be approved first, and licenses would last for 3 years from the date of application. We could speed up or slow the approval process depending on China's behavior - a bit murky like working with Chinese bureaucracy. The worst applicants might end up not having their applications reviewed before they would have to start all over again.

 

Just remove their developing country status and see what happens. 

 

Economic catastrophe for China. 

[Harrisfan]

1 hour ago, scottiejohn said:

Being a Trump hater does not mean that people hate the USA.  The hint is in the word TRUMP!

Non Americans with nothing better to do.

[Harrisfan]

2 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Ok, but please tell what he achieved the last tenure, except hiding a lot of classified documents at Mar a Lago

Strong economy without high prices. Germans would not know.

[theblether]

An interesting thing about China is that the wealth is gathered on the Eastern Seaboard and the Interior is poverty stricken. Average Chinese income is around $14,000 a year - US is around $85,000. For China to match the US income level it would need to effectively control all world trade - never going to happen. 

 

So they dance around with preferential treatment under developing country status that they don't deserve because fundamentally the power brokers don't give a flying frog about those that live in the Interior. 

 

But here we have the usual world experts on everything that haven't spent a single second of their life in China pontificating a lot of utter drivel about China winning a trade war. Very good - your off your nut if you think China can genuinely take on the USA and the West without causing severe economic hardship and potential unrest. 

 

No doubt many of you will be of the opinion that the CCP has an iron grip. All it took was a few video images of the last world cup to start street protests and the CCP dropped their knickers. The Chinese were enraged when they saw the rest of the world enjoying freedom post-covid. But of course, you all knew that. 

 

The primary reason ( I should really ask this as a question and have a laugh at the Dems replies ) why China hasn't attempted to take Taiwan is fear of defeat. The CCP would not survive a failed invasion. It's a legacy of the Opium Wars, the national psyche is shattered and another white man defeat would blow Chinese society apart.  

 

What made it even worse was that the Japanese adopted white man technology at a rapid rate and completely ragdolled the Chinese in the 30's, the Rape of Nanjing being a prime example of Chinese humiliation. Never underestimate the Chinese fear of defeat. 

 

 

[Gottfrid]

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Strong economy without high prices. Germans would not know.

So, you are just another one that assumes I am German. I am Swedish.

 

Then you can stop spreading lies. the US economy was not strong after trumps first tenure, and it has gone downhill ever since. the trend will continue, as Trump will not be able to better US economy that has a dept to GDP percentage of around 97%. That´s ridiculous!

[Harrisfan]

1 minute ago, Gottfrid said:

So, you are just another one that assumes I am German. I am Swedish.

 

Then you can stop spreading lies. the US economy was not strong after trumps first tenure, and it has gone downhill ever since. the trend will continue, as Trump will not be able to better US economy that has a dept to GDP percentage of around 97%. That´s ridiculous!

It was strong pre covid, you stop lying Swede. You obviously know nothing about America. Just another lefty whinger.

[Gottfrid]

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

It was strong pre covid, you stop lying Swede. You obviously know nothing about America. Just another lefty whinger.

Sure it was. Little Trump promised and predicted 3% growth in GDP 2019, but missed with almost 30%. Landed on 2,3%

[Harrisfan]

Just now, Gottfrid said:

Sure it was. Little Trump promised and predicted 3% growth in GDP 2019, but missed with almost 30%. Landed on 2,3%

Nothing with 2.3% gdp growth, low unemployment and low inflation.

 

Everybody wins. 

 

 

[Gottfrid]

8 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Nothing with 2.3% gdp growth, low unemployment and low inflation.

 

Everybody wins. 

 

 

Ops! You are not aware? What are you doing in the discussion? The increase percentage in GDP is usually used to measure how much stronger an economy has become during the specific year. See, now you know too. 🙂 

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Ops! You are not aware? What are you doing in the discussion? The increase percentage in GDP is usually used to measure how much stronger an economy has become during the specific year. See, now you know too. 🙂 

So you know nothing. GDP means nothing to regular people who are paying 30% more for eggs, fuel, bread etc. Thanks for showing you don't understand. Typical lefty. Out of touch with reality. Funny considering you moved from expensive Sweden to cheap Thailand.

[CallumWK]

8 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Says a liberal Trump hater.

 

Says a "new" member with 65 posts a day average

[CallumWK]

16 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

GDP means nothing to regular people who are paying 30% more for eggs,

You don't say.

 

Eggs were $6.39 the day Trump took office.

 

[NorthernRyland]

The US is too dependent on Chinese imports and it will take years if not decades to rebuild the local manufacturing base. Until then we need China and a trade war is the wrong away to go about it but we do need a rebalancing which supports native labor.

[Mike_Hunt]

44 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

You don't say.

 

Eggs were $6.39 the day Trump took office.

 

Yep, bird flu outbreak.

[sscc]

1 hour ago, theblether said:

An interesting thing about China is that the wealth is gathered on the Eastern Seaboard and the Interior is poverty stricken. Average Chinese income is around $14,000 a year - US is around $85,000. For China to match the US income level it would need to effectively control all world trade - never going to happen. 

 

So they dance around with preferential treatment under developing country status that they don't deserve because fundamentally the power brokers don't give a flying frog about those that live in the Interior. 

 

But here we have the usual world experts on everything that haven't spent a single second of their life in China pontificating a lot of utter drivel about China winning a trade war. Very good - your off your nut if you think China can genuinely take on the USA and the West without causing severe economic hardship and potential unrest. 

 

No doubt many of you will be of the opinion that the CCP has an iron grip. All it took was a few video images of the last world cup to start street protests and the CCP dropped their knickers. The Chinese were enraged when they saw the rest of the world enjoying freedom post-covid. But of course, you all knew that. 

 

The primary reason ( I should really ask this as a question and have a laugh at the Dems replies ) why China hasn't attempted to take Taiwan is fear of defeat. The CCP would not survive a failed invasion. It's a legacy of the Opium Wars, the national psyche is shattered and another white man defeat would blow Chinese society apart.  

 

What made it even worse was that the Japanese adopted white man technology at a rapid rate and completely ragdolled the Chinese in the 30's, the Rape of Nanjing being a prime example of Chinese humiliation. Never underestimate the Chinese fear of defeat. 

 

 

 

Since CCP took over Mainland China in 1949,  there had been two warfare with USA and ( Red ) China locking horns in Asia. 

 

1950-53   ( Red ) China was the damn weak and poor  and USA was the strongest and most powerful    China-North Korea Vs  USA-South Korea, war ended in a "DRAW",  and completely different from what USA top general Douglas MacArthur  General predicted. 

 

1965-1975  ( Red ) China was involved in the Vietnam war helping Northern Vietnam against  USA Helping Southern Vietnam.   All knew what had happened.  

 

Your statement about Japan trouncing China in 1930's was factual,  but You simply reference to a different Government and different system in different era.     It is just for your own silly  "Feeling Good" rambling. 

 

 

BTW what does world cup have to do with this,   is it  Men World Cup Football Tournament  ?

 

 

 

[GypsyT]

9 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

If Trump was so bad last time why did he win last year?

Voters IQ smaller than shoe size....

 

[sscc]

Trump or No Trump,   USA is on the downtrend. 

Trump or No Trump,   China is on the uptrend. 

 

Regardless of China,   USA is on the downtrend. 

Regardless of USA,     China is on the uptrend. 

 

Two trends going in opposite direction 

Americans are upset because they see China uprising and challenging so rapidly.

The comparison making USA difficult to hide their decline. 

[sscc]

10 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

China buys 7.3% of US exports

US buys 14.8% of Chinese exports.

 

China needs US more than vice versa

 

Trump started the tariffs on Chinese goods  in summer 2018, 

Biden compounded and expanded it in 2021-2024,  at least increasing cars imported from China to 100+% tariffs. 

 

From 2018 to 2024,  the gap of balance had been continuously expanding  such that China had higher surplus on USA-China trade in 2024 than 2018,  and vice versa that USA had higher trade deficit with China. 

In 2024,  the gap had been the highest in history.    

 

The figure you quoted is true,   but it is surely not as relevant as the reality of what is happening. 

 

 

 

 

 

[sscc]

9 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

China is in a lot more trouble than most think. China has a collasping demographic with far too many older people and not enough workers that earn and spend/consume, plus their economy is in major trouble and relying on manufacturing is a a risky strategy, hence why they are deserpate to change that. On top of all that, they are sinking in debt, much of it hidden in local government shadow debt. Beijing does growth differently to the rest of the world, it decides how much it will be and then tasks local government to meet its targets... trouble written all over it and it's not as if the figures are reliable, and most economist/China observers/think tanks agree that their figure are made-up BS. Add to that the youth movement about "Let it rot" etc. reflect the dissillionment of the young in the country as they simply can't get ahead, regardless of how hard they work... they are just exploited, and uni grduates are finding impossible to get the jobs they want.

China is in horrible trouble and the CCP just lies about everything to cover it all up and pretend it's all fine... don't buy into the commie propaganda.

 

About your opening remarks  

2-3 weeks ago,  China released data about population change in 2024. 

More death than Birth by slightly over 1 million in China 2024,  that is translated to less than 0.1 %  of  roughly 1.4 billion -- 1400 million population.   

 

At this rate and adding on the compounding factor. 

After 10 years,  population would shrink by 1.3 % ;

After 20 years,  population would shrink by 2.8 % ;

After 30 years,  around 4.8 %

Big deal causing China to collapse  ? 

 

Western media and most English-language media amplify every negative on China on daily/weekly basis. 

The stupid simply follow the tone and unknowingly brainwashed along the way. 

 

 

[Cryingdick]

15 hours ago, proton said:

 

Don't fall for CCP propaganda of how advanced, technologically ahead and how powerful their military is, mostly a sham.

Come on man, Deepseek had everybody scared for one trading session. 

[Cryingdick]

The thing is China can't win. Will the USA collapse and China is the power? Maybe. But the world doesn't have the resources for them to ever become the same level. At some point everything will be polluted and strip mined if that's called winning. Then again they sort of like it that way so maybe they win and rule the new post apocalyptic mad max world.

 

 

[dinsdale]

Should have a byline attached stating: Opinion Piece From Rabid MAGA Hater.

 

[spidermike007]

12 hours ago, bannork said:

 

Move over USA.

Chinese officials have already informed Nepal’s government — a strategically significant country for Beijing, located on the southern slopes of the Himalayas between India and China — that China is ready to replace USAID programs with its own development projects.

Meanwhile, a delegation from the Cook Islands, a Pacific archipelago, led by Prime Minister Mark Brown, will visit China this week to sign an agreement on deepening trade and economic cooperation, including increased Chinese investment in the nation’s infrastructure.

In Colombia, non-governmental organizations report that China is showing interest in stepping in to replace USAID programs that were frozen. Last year, Colombia received approximately $385 million from USAID.

These moves indicate China’s intent to capitalize on the situation and quickly expand its influence in regions crucial to its global ambitions, potentially displacing the United States from key strategic areas.

.

I expected this. And we will see alot more of this. Trumps policies are not only playing into China's hands, they are a wet dream for the CCP. And they will weaken the US even more. The US decline is in full swing now. 

[spidermike007]

12 hours ago, Mike_Hunt said:

Dude, you are not the genius you think you are.  People like you lack depth.  

 

Let's have a discussion.  How is the US in trouble?   

Even though the economy is expanding and wages are growing, millions more Americans say they are struggling to keep current with their bills. 

 

The number of consumers who said it was "very difficult" for them to pay their household bills during the last week has jumped from 26.9 million in October 2021, when the pandemic was in full swing, to 43.2 million in October 2023, the most recent data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

 

Even once affordable cities are now priced out of many first-time buyers' budgets. The combination of rising home prices and higher interest rates, with the latter due to the Federal Reserve's flurry of rate hikes, means that buyers in half of big cities in the U.S. need incomes of at least $100,000 to buy a home. 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/economy-inflation-why-americans-are-so-unhappy-three-charts/

 

The federal debt, measured against the size of the U.S. economy, is at levels not seen since World War II. Without changes in tax and spending laws, it is projected to climb steadily and indefinitely. The current tax code won’t generate nearly enough revenue to cover the rising projected costs, namely those related to retirement and health benefits promised to an aging population. So far, however, the U.S. government has been able to borrow trillions of dollars a year at interest rates that are moderate by historical standards. Analysts warn, however, that our nation’s growing debt will inevitably lead to a crisis.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-the-risks-of-a-rising-federal-debt/

 

I could go on. Pretending problems don't exist does not make them go away. 

[Gweiloman]

11 hours ago, theblether said:

An interesting thing about China is that the wealth is gathered on the Eastern Seaboard and the Interior is poverty stricken. Average Chinese income is around $14,000 a year - US is around $85,000. For China to match the US income level it would need to effectively control all world trade - never going to happen. 

 

So they dance around with preferential treatment under developing country status that they don't deserve because fundamentally the power brokers don't give a flying frog about those that live in the Interior. 

 

But here we have the usual world experts on everything that haven't spent a single second of their life in China pontificating a lot of utter drivel about China winning a trade war. Very good - your off your nut if you think China can genuinely take on the USA and the West without causing severe economic hardship and potential unrest. 

 

No doubt many of you will be of the opinion that the CCP has an iron grip. All it took was a few video images of the last world cup to start street protests and the CCP dropped their knickers. The Chinese were enraged when they saw the rest of the world enjoying freedom post-covid. But of course, you all knew that. 

 

The primary reason ( I should really ask this as a question and have a laugh at the Dems replies ) why China hasn't attempted to take Taiwan is fear of defeat. The CCP would not survive a failed invasion. It's a legacy of the Opium Wars, the national psyche is shattered and another white man defeat would blow Chinese society apart.  

 

What made it even worse was that the Japanese adopted white man technology at a rapid rate and completely ragdolled the Chinese in the 30's, the Rape of Nanjing being a prime example of Chinese humiliation. Never underestimate the Chinese fear of defeat. 

 

 

What does it matter what the comparative income levels are when the average American has to work 2-3 jobs just to pay the rent, borrow money to buy groceries and have to continue paying property taxes if they are fortunate enough to pay off their mortgage whilst the overwhelming majority of Chinese own their own homes, have plenty of food to ear and can live in comfort and safety without having to send their kids off to school wearing bulletproof knapsacks?

[GypsyT]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Analysts warn, however, that our nation’s growing debt will inevitably lead to a crisis.

I'm already budgeting my life and my future without counting on US pension....

I'll will be fine.

 

[Gottfrid]

12 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

So you know nothing. GDP means nothing to regular people who are paying 30% more for eggs, fuel, bread etc. Thanks for showing you don't understand. Typical lefty. Out of touch with reality. Funny considering you moved from expensive Sweden to cheap Thailand.

Yeah, And I was able to move when I was about 29 years old. That´s quite successful, don´t you think? Maybe, I know about economy anyway. I spend about 100-150k per month in Thailand, so not anything with Thailand being cheap.

My knowledge in economy also makes me able to connect the dots and realize what effects different factor have on each other. So, basically the difference in GDP means a lot to regular people. I not high enough GDP, can create a recession. The rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP constitute a recession. During a recession the percentage of unemployment spikes and more layoffs are expected. As a result, that leads to smaller amount of money for regular people. That means the eggs feels like they would be more expensive.

On the side of that, when low GDP for two consecutive quarters builds up a recession, the other factor will be high inflation. When that happens, high inflation rates will cause businesses to react to higher costs by reducing production and increase the prices of products. Now the eggs are in reality more expensive. 

So, yes! That was ABC in business economics my unknowing friend. Now even you are aware of the a lower GDP than expected is able to reflect on the regular person and the price of 30 eggs.

Please feel free to ask more, if there is anything else I can help you with.

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Yeah, And I was able to move when I was about 29 years old. That´s quite successful, don´t you think? Maybe, I know about economy anyway. I spend about 100-150k per month in Thailand, so not anything with Thailand being cheap.

My knowledge in economy also makes me able to connect the dots and realize what effects different factor have on each other. So, basically the difference in GDP means a lot to regular people. I not high enough GDP, can create a recession. The rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP constitute a recession. During a recession the percentage of unemployment spikes and more layoffs are expected. As a result, that leads to smaller amount of money for regular people. That means the eggs feels like they would be more expensive.

On the side of that, when low GDP for two consecutive quarters builds up a recession, the other factor will be high inflation. When that happens, high inflation rates will cause businesses to react to higher costs by reducing production and increase the prices of products. Now the eggs are in reality more expensive. 

So, yes! That was ABC in business economics my unknowing friend. Now even you are aware of the a lower GDP than expected is able to reflect on the regular person and the price of 30 eggs.

Please feel free to ask more, if there is anything else I can help you with.

You mean like high inflation due to Biden. 3 to 10%.

[Gottfrid]

9 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

You mean like high inflation due to Biden. 3 to 10%.

Never said he was better. Just refuted what you posting tried to tell. Don´t play with the big boys no more, you will just get burned.

[Harrisfan]

Just now, Gottfrid said:

Never said he was better. Just refuted what you posting tried to tell. Don´t play with the big boys no more, you will just get burned.

Big boy on the internet. Sounds a bit suss.