Baht Slow And Steady Weakening...

[sfokevin]

Seems like the BOT has decided to put slow and steady pressure to weaken the Baht also the offshore rate seems to be very volatile...

The offshore rate jumped from 29.8 to above 31 yesterday!!!... Will BOT be able to crush the onshore/offshore differential?

Do you think they will stop at 34 or can we hope to see it above 35? Don't be shy - let's hear your thoughts

[lordofdelusion]

During the rapid appreciation phase, when many people saw 25 to the dollar very soon, I was just following the news. Countless articles in the press regarding "THE BAHT CRISIS" The nation was using the phrase "CURRENCY CRISIS" in red as a topper for all the related articles. Economists, government officials, past and present, all lined up to express concern and demand action. Even the PM wanted weekly updates on the "crisis" Based on this alone I suspected the Baht would weaken as nobody in Thailand was taking the position FOR a strong Baht. All the arguments about international currency trading, the weak dollar, account deficits and surpluses and charts, a lot of charts, are all valid arguments. However, if Thailand doesn't want a strong Baht, I think they will act to weaken it. They certainly got a lot of suggestions on how to do that from a host of economists.

My random guess..... between 35 and 36 by year end. (But I can dream for 50!!)

[ProThaiExpat]

A prominent economist at a big Thai bank was quoted in the Bangkok Post as predicting a baht rate of 37 to the U.S. dollar by mid-2008.

[Naam]

Will BOT be able to crush the onshore/offshore differential?

the BOT is not able to do anything about the differential AND there is no need to do anything about it as the offshore rate is irrelevant to the thai economy.

i am with you and hope (like most of us) for a weaker Baht

[george]

The Baht is back to nearly 34 to the US Dollar

Baht slow and steady weaking

BANGKOK: -- The Thai Baht opened at 33.93 THB/US dollar on Thursday morning and at 4PM Bangkok time it was noted at 33.86, according to Bangkok Bank.

The offshore rates are shown here: http://baht.thaivisa.com

-- Thaivisa.com 2007-08-09

[sonicdragon]

I believe the recent baht retreat is more a function of global risk aversion than any policy action of the BOT.

[Pink Mist]

call me greedy but, a retreat is a good thing for us now

[Lifelover]

The Baht is back to nearly 34 to the US Dollar

Baht slow and steady weaking

BANGKOK: -- The Thai Baht opened at 33.93 THB/US dollar on Thursday morning and at 4PM Bangkok time it was noted at 33.86, according to Bangkok Bank.

The offshore rates are shown here: http://baht.thaivisa.com

-- Thaivisa.com 2007-08-09

Actually those are NOT the offshore rates, but the local rates. At 4.00pm today the offshore USD/THB mid rate was 30.75, for example, up from 30.00 24 hours earlier. This follows an entire week last week with no movement in the USD/THB price offshore (which is unusual). The offshore rates set the scene for the onshore ones. The BOT will not maintain a differential beyond a certain percentage. Watch how offshore trading goes to get a handle on likely future movements.

[ariaby]

Shit, ######, hel_l I lost about 2,000$

I exchanged all my money to baht put it in my Siam commercial bank account!

I can't believe it

[Thaiphile]

Shit, ######, hel_l I lost about 2,000$

I exchanged all my money to baht put it in my Siam commercial bank account!

I can't believe it

Excuse my ignorance but what is the difference between the onshore and offshore rates and why does it exist? Who uses which rate?

[Bpraim1]

Though I trade canadian to Thai, I am glad I sat on my funds.

Just could not move alot of funds here to the worst interest save'ns rates around.

2.25% in Thai as to 4.25% back in canada

But still happy to hear that the Baht is slide'n back some.

[ariaby]

I don't know! someone tell me if I lost money or not! I'm near a heart attack!

I could buy a brand new laptop with that money

[Naam]

I don't know! someone tell me if I lost money or not! I'm near a heart attack!

I could buy a brand new laptop with that money

nobody can give you an answer as you have not supplied any information

[ariaby]

I rather not to know! better for me

[Lifelover]

I don't know! someone tell me if I lost money or not! I'm near a heart attack!

I could buy a brand new laptop with that money

Obviously if you changed USD to THB today, you would have got more baht than you would have done yesterday.

If you really lost as much as $2,000 on the recent small move, you must have brought in a very large amount. I sympathise with you.

[FunkyGuru]

In my humble opinion, I think Baht will be back to 36-37 to a US$ by end of this year.

My reasons and arguments are basically very vague but are based on historic data and observation of past 15 odd years.

Not venturing into how and why of Baht appreciation and fall, bottom line is I am happy that Baht is loosing strength. I know gas will be more expensive but there are far too many other benefits then little pain of paying more for gas.

Well all this is in my humble opinion

[Naam]

"If you really lost as much as $2,000 on the recent small move"

without using a pocket calculator i estimate he must have brought in cash in excess of one million dollars.

TROLL!

[london]

It is interesting to note this discussion re the weakening or strengthening of the Baht against the $US.

However, what is relevant is the weakening of the $US against the Baht...or for that matter any other currency. For some, this may seem to be one in the same, but in fact this so called strengthening of the Baht is really only a reflection of the weakening $US.

If you believe that the $US will strengthen, then sure, the Baht will weaken. However, if like me you feel that the $US is in a weakening cycle, then the Baht, like many other currencies, will be stronger against the $US.

It is more interesting to note the exchange rates of the Baht against say the UK pound, $AU, $ SIN, or any other currency apart from the $US. Here the Baht is in fact weakening.

For those holding $US or receiving $US pensions/salaries etc in Thailand, then it is likely that this strengthening Baht/weakening $US will continue....at least as I read it, for the foreseeable future. For those holding currencies other than the $US, the Baht will continue to trade around current levels...and may in fact weaken slightly in the coming months.

[Naam]

For those holding currencies other than the $US, the Baht will continue to trade around current levels...and may in fact weaken slightly in the coming months.

it's always good to have prophets and fortune tellers around us. REALLY! I MEAN IT!

[T_Dog]

After reading this thread, I am confused. I thought the Offshore Rate (Bringing money in from outside Thailand) was higher (baht to dollar) than the Onshore Rate (exchanging US Dollars for baht inside Thailand. Every time I get money from the USA, it is at a more favorable baht to dollar ratio than exchanging dollars for baht. Am I all wet? Maybe a money expert could explain why they are different. At any rate, the baht to dollar going up is good news!

[BlackArtemis]

This puts me in an odd predicament! For a long time I have wanted this, then the Baht got so High I realized it was going to HELP my trip home in Oct. I could put away a quick 60k and have $2000 USD, now if that off shore rate goes up I have less and less, Ahhhh poop. O well I am happy for everyone living on dollars in Thailand. Maybe I might see 42 again and decide to buy a house haha.

[Naam]

I thought the Offshore Rate (Bringing money in from outside Thailand) was higher (baht to dollar) than the Onshore Rate (exchanging US Dollars for baht inside Thailand.

you thought wrong. as simple as that.

[Thaiphile]

The Baht is back to nearly 34 to the US Dollar

Baht slow and steady weaking

BANGKOK: -- The Thai Baht opened at 33.93 THB/US dollar on Thursday morning and at 4PM Bangkok time it was noted at 33.86, according to Bangkok Bank.

The offshore rates are shown here: http://baht.thaivisa.com

-- Thaivisa.com 2007-08-09

Actually those are NOT the offshore rates, but the local rates. At 4.00pm today the offshore USD/THB mid rate was 30.75, for example, up from 30.00 24 hours earlier. This follows an entire week last week with no movement in the USD/THB price offshore (which is unusual). The offshore rates set the scene for the onshore ones. The BOT will not maintain a differential beyond a certain percentage. Watch how offshore trading goes to get a handle on likely future movements.

Excuse my ignorance but what is the difference between the onshore and offshore rates and why does it exist? Who uses which rate?

Please help me!

[BlackArtemis]

I am not able to answer all the wh's etc but I can answer one thing.

When you have American dollars and you buy Baht in Thailand you are getting the onshore rate (34) or use an American bank card here in Thailand.

When you use dollars to buy Baht in America you get the offshore rate of (30ish)

So if you are coming to Thailand buy your baht in Thailand, if you are going to America buy it in America.

If I am wrong, I will just shut up and let the more knowledgeable people handle it.

[london]

For those holding currencies other than the $US, the Baht will continue to trade around current levels...and may in fact weaken slightly in the coming months.

it's always good to have prophets and fortune tellers around us. REALLY! I MEAN IT!

Dear Dr Naam, I'm not a prophet or a fortune teller. If I had that foresight, mmmm, I'd not have made so many mistakes in life!!!!

For the record, I am underweight in $US...and see no reason to change this.

If anyone can enlighten me as to any reason (s) why the $US will strengthen or is likely to, against the Baht or any other currency, I would be interested.

[Jimjim]

Go baht go!!

[mrdome]

I rather not to know! better for me

Money and emotions are best kept apart. As the THB may correct either way at the slightest news, be aware that you might lose way more than this. The long term outlook for the baht is not really known, nor is the THB (relatively) stable. I remember it between 36 and 42 in a rather short period between '99 and '01. Chok dee, khrap.

[Naam]

If anyone can enlighten me as to any reason (s) why the $US will strengthen or is likely to, against the Baht or any other currency, I would be interested.

why would i be able to do that? i am not a prophet.

[onethailand]

After reading this thread, I am confused. I thought the Offshore Rate (Bringing money in from outside Thailand) was higher (baht to dollar) than the Onshore Rate (exchanging US Dollars for baht inside Thailand. Every time I get money from the USA, it is at a more favorable baht to dollar ratio than exchanging dollars for baht. Am I all wet? Maybe a money expert could explain why they are different. At any rate, the baht to dollar going up is good news!

The short answer to this is that you are sending Dollars into Thailand - and thus getting the onshore rate because the exchange happens locally. And the interbank exchange rate is always slightly higher than what you will get by exchanging cash at foreign exchange.

Had you wired Baht, the exchange would have taken place offshore at a much lower rate because the exchange would've taken place at the bank you were sending the money from.

[bloody tiger]

The BART was always going to weaken with the premiere of "The Simpsons Movie"