ASEAN's Patience Wears Thin on Myanmar – Can Malaysia Lead Change?

[geovalin]

 

As Myanmar’s conflict deepens, ASEAN’s response is facing a moment of reckoning. With its chairmanship in 2025, Malaysia has a rare opportunity to push for a new strategy that goes beyond ASEAN’s struggling Five-Point Consensus (5PC).

 

The military junta, in power since the 2021 coup, is losing control over vast swathes of the country. Despite this, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing insists elections will be held in late 2024 or early 2025. However, with resistance groups controlling an estimated 42% of Myanmar’s territory, ASEAN remains sceptical.

 

Malaysia’s approach so far has been proactive. Its special envoy, Othman Hashim, has engaged not only with the junta but also with Myanmar’s opposition groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic armed organisations. This shift suggests a potential recalibration of ASEAN’s engagement strategy.

 

Beyond diplomacy, Malaysia’s leadership will be crucial in addressing the humanitarian crisis. With over 20 million people in need of aid, ASEAN’s current relief efforts have proven inadequate. Thailand has already pioneered cross-border aid routes—Malaysia could expand such initiatives and coordinate ASEAN’s approach with key external partners like China, India, and Japan.

 

As Myanmar’s crisis continues, ASEAN must look beyond just ending violence. It needs a long-term strategy that includes supporting Myanmar’s displaced communities, investing in capacity-building, and helping to shape a post-conflict governance structure. Malaysia’s 2025 chairmanship could set the stage for ASEAN’s most decisive shift on Myanmar yet.

 

 

-2025-03-28