Gold hits fresh record high over trade war impact fears

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, Peterphuket said:

You would expect a bit more knowledge from a Swiss, wouldn't you?

From the very few Swiss I have met here in Thailand…absolutely.  They are also quite reserved so even  commenting on gold threads like this (and the one previously posted) seems out of character.

[ChaiyaTH]

1 hour ago, Airalee said:

From the very few Swiss I have met here in Thailand…absolutely.  They are also quite reserved so even  commenting on gold threads like this (and the one previously posted) seems out of character.

Seems you are missing the point entirely. For example EUR USD changed like 12% already since just 60 days while that is only around 16% for gold where it is very likely to now first get a proper pull back sooner or later too.

That means that people who bought gold as in this example europeans, are barely at a profit and even likely soon in a overall loss, rather than a profit. Even if the gold price first goes up higher towards the 3700 target, that likely will come with a even stronger EURUSD too, so no change.

 

However when gold comes down, it will not be the same or comparable percentage down for the EURUSD. You maybe have more dollars but when changing it back to the original euro's it is at loss or just break-even. This aside from general buying power loss with fiat on top.

[CallumWK]

18 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Seems you are missing the point entirely. For example EUR USD changed like 12% already since just 60 days while that is only around 16% for gold where it is very likely to now first get a proper pull back sooner or later too.

That means that people who bought gold as in this example europeans, are barely at a profit and even likely soon in a overall loss, rather than a profit. 

 

 

[ChaiyaTH]

On 4/17/2025 at 11:39 PM, Airalee said:

No, they haven’t.  China resumed buying this year.  You were already informed of this in another thread.   Why have you conveniently forgotten?

 

Oh dear.  You should really do your homework.

 

 

You are aware that any other currency trading with gold, than the US dollar, is a synthetic product right? Gold is globally priced in dollars, there is no exceptions. The EUR/oz price is the derived price from USD/oz + FX rates. You have to be very basic to not understand this to then bring it as an argument.

[kwonitoy]

@Cameroni   @Airalee

 

If you knew something about mineral rights in Canada

 

Who owns the majority of mineral rights in Canada?

The Crown

Mineral rights are registered in accordance with the Land Titles Act. See Land Titles – overview for the types of surface rights ownership and more information on land titles. The Crown owns 81 per cent of the mineral rights, representing approximately 53.7 million hectares of land.

 

 

[mogandave]

I am 10-15% in gold, and I happy it’s up, the last few months not withstanding, It has not done that well in the scheme of things. 

 

All you guys that can predict how currencies will move must be incredibly wealthy. I know I would be if I could. 

[ChaiyaTH]

6 minutes ago, mogandave said:

I am 10-15% in gold, and I happy it’s up, the last few months not withstanding, It has not done that well in the scheme of things. 

 

All you guys that can predict how currencies will move must be incredibly wealthy. I know I would be if I could. 

It depends wether you are American and in dollars by default or not, if you are in euro you are actually just up around 4-5% and that is assuming the price stays where it is now at 3326. GBP is not that far behind with it. Comes down to just around a 200-250 dollar increase per ounce in this year so far while 8% is normal and that is exactly where we would be with a price of 3700 per ounce for gold and a tickle more stronger EURUSD GBPUSD etc.

 

So if inflation then stays or even increases again, you actually have no profits at all.

[Cameroni]

23 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

@Cameroni   @Airalee

 

If you knew something about mineral rights in Canada

 

Who owns the majority of mineral rights in Canada?

The Crown

Mineral rights are registered in accordance with the Land Titles Act. See Land Titles – overview for the types of surface rights ownership and more information on land titles. The Crown owns 81 per cent of the mineral rights, representing approximately 53.7 million hectares of land.

 

 

What you don't seem to understand is that the mineral rights that adhere to the land are sold off to private gold mining companies. It is they who then own the rights.  They acquire them to operate the gold mines. The Canadian government doesn't do that.

 

[CallumWK]

3 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

if you are in euro you are actually just up around 4-5% and that is assuming the price stays where it is now at 3326.

 

You think goldprice.org is wrong?

 

 

[ChaiyaTH]

11 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

You think goldprice.org is wrong?

 

 

What part of gold being priced in dollars being not up for debate + it otherwise depending on FX rates, do you not understand, seriously? Like you can even ask google or AI by copying what I said to be true or not. It is not debatable, it is not a strategy or opinion, it are the facts. Ask your broker lol.

 

When your base currency and earnings are not dollars, you are both speculating on currency as well as gold. The swiss was right from the start. Life would be wonderful by just glancing at some nice percentage charts colored green and red without factoring reality in. Like Thai accounting.

 

Gold is not a universal hedge in modern days at all, it is only a hedge for the dollar. The US officially still values gold at only 1200 dollars as well, that means if they seized it all again like in the 30s they can take 2000 per ounce from every holder, instantly.

 

The only exception was to pay the fine of 10,000 dollars which translates to like 270,000 dollars today.

[CallumWK]

5 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

What part of gold being priced in dollars being not up for debate + it otherwise depending on FX rates, do you not understand,

 

The image I posted quotes the price of gold in different currencies.

 

In USD the gold price has increased by 26.4 % since 1 January. In euro, the gold price has increased by 15.2 % during the same period

[ChaiyaTH]

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

 

The image I posted quotes the price of gold in different currencies.

 

In USD the gold price has increased by 26.4 % since 1 January. In euro, the gold price has increased by 15.2 % during the same period

The euro dollar has increased, the gold price never changes other than it changes to the dollar. You still do not get it do you? The illustration of goldprice you posted is actually proving my point lol. Even it is not my point, it are facts, i explained it 3 times already in layman terms.

[BangkokReady]

On 4/17/2025 at 11:50 PM, CallumWK said:

Sparktrader has spoken, take heed.

 

It's hard to keep up.  SparkTrader, BigNok, Uttradit, Dolf, Susanlea, MalcolmB, and possibly more. 

 

I don't know how one person can have so many personalities!

[mogandave]

4 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

It depends wether you are American and in dollars by default or not, if you are in euro you are actually just up around 4-5% and that is assuming the price stays where it is now at 3326. GBP is not that far behind with it. Comes down to just around a 200-250 dollar increase per ounce in this year so far while 8% is normal and that is exactly where we would be with a price of 3700 per ounce for gold and a tickle more stronger EURUSD GBPUSD etc.

 

So if inflation then stays or even increases again, you actually have no profits at all.

I did not say how much I was up, I said I was 10-15% in gold, meaning as a percentage of my investments. 

 

I think I am actually up about 150% with gold overall which is is not that great, considering how much better a simple S & P index fund has performed over the same time period. 

 

I did not buy gold for growth. That’s what the other 85-90% of my investments are for. 

 

 

[ChaiyaTH]

1 minute ago, mogandave said:

I did not say how much I was up, I said I was 10-15% in gold, meaning as a percentage of my investments. 

 

I think I am actually up about 150% with gold overall which is is not that great, considering how much better a simple S & P index fund has performed over the same time period. 

 

I did not buy gold for growth. That’s what the other 85-90% of my investments are for. 

 

 

I was not speaking about how much you are up either, i understood perfectly what you meant with it. I'm just stating the actual reality if you are not in dollar by default.

[CallumWK]

3 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

The euro dollar has increased, the gold price never changes other than it changes to the dollar. You still do not get it do you? The illustration of goldprice you posted is actually proving my point lol. Even it is not my point, it are facts, i explained it 3 times already in layman terms.

 

You claim in Euros the gold price has increased by no more than 4-5%, while in fact it has increased by 15.2%

[ChaiyaTH]

2 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

You claim in Euros the gold price has increased by no more than 4-5%, while in fact it has increased by 15.2%

We are speaking about the predicted outcome result if gold now would have a retrace to around 3K, or if it further increased to the price target of 3.7K while the EURUSD also will continue to get stronger, it can even easily get as strong as 1.20 again, which would then beat gold. Maybe read again from the start what was explained, it is not an opinion. The difference in gain left just barely justifies the 8% average and assumes low inflation of 3% to still be profitable.

[CallumWK]

5 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

We are speaking about the predicted outcome result if gold now would have a retrace to around 3K, or if it further increased to the price target of 3.7K while the EURUSD also will continue to get stronger, it can even easily get as strong as 1.20 again, which would then beat gold. Maybe read again from the start what was explained, it is not an opinion.

 

No that is not what you said.

 

THIS is what you said.

 

 

 

[ChaiyaTH]

6 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

No that is not what you said.

 

THIS is what you said.

 

 

 

Wow so now you are gaslighting something that is factual, to then project on a sentence you not even abuse properly? I said based on the past 60 days with that calculation, aside from that my second calculation is just as accurate. To even make it worse for you, the EUR USD is likely easily going to 1.25-1.50 in that case.

Any EURO buyer would effectively be at a net loss.

[mogandave]

14 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

I was not speaking about how much you are up either, i understood perfectly what you meant with it. I'm just stating the actual reality if you are not in dollar by default.

Then why did you say: “…you are in euro you are actually just up around 4-5%…”?

 

[ChaiyaTH]

2 minutes ago, mogandave said:

Then why did you say: “…you are in euro you are actually just up around 4-5%…”?

 

Because that is what it comes down to if you look at the 3300 price and the past 60 days average. Check the tradingview charts yourself + monthly history. Anyway copy paste my original explanations in any AI and you will get to hear i am right too. Ask any broker same too.

 

Guess it hurt people their holdings or ego's, because it is nothing but facts and zero personal. To then start being a yippy about the exact 2% in this second, you will see the results later this year yourself. Or just look back in history, 2008 for example.

[CallumWK]

4 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Wow so now you are gaslighting something that is factual, to then project on a sentence you not even abuse properly? I said based on the past 60 days with that calculation, aside from that my second calculation is just as accurate. To even make it worse for you, the EUR USD is likely easily going to 1.25-1.50 in that case.

Any EURO buyer would effectively be at a net loss.

 

Oh you were talking about the future, looking at your crystal ball, and cherry picking your dates to make your point?

 

I heard they need cherry pickers in Finland.

[kwonitoy]

39 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

What you don't seem to understand is that the mineral rights that adhere to the land are sold off to private gold mining companies. It is they who then own the rights.  They acquire them to operate the gold mines. The Canadian government doesn't do that.

 

 

The rights for mining are sold off, generating revenues for the Crown. 

Royalties are also paid for the right of mining, to the Crown

We're not giving them away

And the rights can be taken away by the Crown.

 

Canadian gold production royalties are generally based on either a percentage of net revenue or a percentage of net profits, and vary by province. Some provinces have a flat rate, while others have a tiered system where the royalty rate increases with profitability,

[CallumWK]

6 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Because that is what it comes down to if you look at the 3300 price and the past 60 days average. Check the tradingview charts yourself + monthly history. Anyway copy paste my original explanations in any AI and you will get to hear i am right too. Ask any broker same too.

 

This shows the price in EURO for the past 60 days. Does that look like 4-5%?

 

[Cameroni]

15 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

 

The rights for mining are sold off, generating revenues for the Crown. 

Royalties are also paid for the right of mining, to the Crown

We're not giving them away

And the rights can be taken away by the Crown.

 

Canadian gold production royalties are generally based on either a percentage of net revenue or a percentage of net profits, and vary by province. Some provinces have a flat rate, while others have a tiered system where the royalty rate increases with profitability,

 

Yes, of course the mining rights are not given away for free. If you take the Detour Lake mine for instance the Canadian government made about  4.9 million dollars in fees, taxes etc from that mine.

 

The value of the Detour Lake Gold mine however is estimated to be in the billions.

 

Whoever negotiated on behalf of the Canadian government should be fired surely? 

[ChaiyaTH]

6 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

And why not?

If you applied the same logic every time it reaches record highs, nobody would buy gold.

As you can see from my post, I bought twice this year, each time at a record high, yet I have 20% profit on the first trance, and almost 10% on the second trance which was only 2 weeks ago.

In my view it will gain another 10% before the end of this year.

You can have gold being up 26% today while if it goes back to just 3k it is - 10% already and 16%. If the USD THB then falls further from 35 to 31 that is another 10% ish taken away, 6% left. Then we take off 3% Thai inflation, we have 3% net gains only. Assuming zero fees, zero tax too.

 

Even with the additional 10% increase on the gold price expected for 3700, a even larger increase on FX is expected, up to 3x as much.

 

Even the gold price would still be up 16% if you lived entirely in dollars. This can also go into negative figures. Its a forex trade. Maybe this example is easier for ya. You will see all this play out in the chart you used trough out this year anyway.

 

Gold is always a 50% forex trade unless you earn and spend in dollars only. Moving to cambodia could work. This is exactly how so many retirees got stuck in the past decade too, as they not seem to understand or consider the ranges that exist.

 

Even an American that spends his money here in baht is doing the forex trade, even it is not that likely for the baht to get as strong as a euro, gbp, aud etc, same facts. Just assuming this price to stabilize at 3500 and  32 from the 37 heights for USD THB, it's not that special this year at all.

 

Same as tourists in a way, depending what time of the year they come, they pay as much as 20% more or less due to FX alone, without being aware that much, specially mainstream ones. I get 20K+ baht more per month from the EURTHB change alone.

[mrfill]

On 4/17/2025 at 5:30 PM, Harrisfan said:

Go down soon

Yeah yeah yeah...

Chart of gold price over the last 10 years...

 

 

[Peterphuket]

12 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

And why not?

If you applied the same logic every time it reaches record highs, nobody would buy gold.

As you can see from my post, I bought twice this year, each time at a record high, yet I have 20% profit on the first trance, and almost 10% on the second trance which was only 2 weeks ago.

In my view it will gain another 10% before the end of this year.

It depends on how much time you have.
About 40 years ago I first bought physical gold in Europe, after a certain time it started falling and falling, then you have to make a decision, nobody knows when it will rise again, then sold all the gold at a loss.
And yes, with the knowledge of now....

[Peterphuket]

11 hours ago, Airalee said:

From the very few Swiss I have met here in Thailand…absolutely.  They are also quite reserved so even  commenting on gold threads like this (and the one previously posted) seems out of character.

Believe me, I have a lot of faith in the Swiss, and especially when it comes to high tech and fine mechanics think, Omega, Studer, Rolex, too many to mention.