Economy Siam Commercial Bank Predicts Limited Baht Strengthening Amid Volatile Market

[ronnie50]

What I don't get is why the cost of food in Thai supermarkets keeps rising. And that rise affects both domestically produced food/drinks and imported (why the latter with a weakening USD - it should be cheaper not more expensive?)

 

Examples:

 

Tipco's fresh/chilled 1L juices are now 109 baht - up from around 99 baht at the beginning of the year (all supermarkets) - so that's domestic.

Bon Cafe - was roughly 150-160 at the beginning of the year. In the most popular Western-style supermarket in Thailand it is now 220 baht - a huge rise - so that's imported (though I see the price hasn't risen as sharply in the bigger Thai supermarkets).

[IsaanGuy]

Considering the current situation in the US and its complete unpredictability the Thai leadership should take notice of how other countries are dealing with the situation. 
The world moves on continuing business with or without the US, something that the 
buffoon in charge fails to comprehend.

 

[TroubleandGrumpy]

10 hours ago, goatfarmer said:

It's pretty close to its previous low of 32.1, September 2024. It might briefly touch 32, but my guess is that it's currently bottoming and by the end of the year it will be back to the 34 level. But who knows? Que sera sera. 😁

This below is the graph that is more relevant - since 2020 the Baht was declining in value - and then in mid-2024 the Thai Govt decided to step in and stop the decline. As the new PM at the time said - 'we over did it'.

 

 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

On 6/12/2025 at 11:39 AM, snoop1130 said:

Mr Wachirawat highlights a trend of global investors diversifying away from US assets, which has led to capital outflows from the US and put downward pressure on the dollar. These capital flows are increasingly directed towards European, Asian, and emerging markets.

Temporary nonsense. Trump's economic policies might not benefit nor be favorable with other countries governments and financial institutions, but they are favorable for (the future of) the American economy, and that includes (foreign and domestic) investors. I expect record growth in the coming quarters for American exporters.

 

As for the US Dollar being replaced by any other currencies - dream on. Ain't happening anytime soon.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

2 hours ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

and then in mid-2024 the Thai Govt decided to step in and stop the decline. As the new PM at the time said - 'we over did it'.

And then they cry "why are the tourists not coming". No - you didn't over do it - you did too little and now the baht is artificially strong which impedes tourism and exports.

[Middle Aged Grouch]

Biden started the global damage with his sanctions against Russia in a war that nobody gives a hoot.

 

Now Trump stepped in and is keeping things as bad if not a bit worse. 

 

America has historically been the global trouble maker since the end of WW2. Russia entered the game in the west, after the cold war and  since the Berlin Wall fell. 

 

Nothing really new except that the turn things are taking and considering the so-called embargos on cheap russian oil, it could get worse mainly for the western economies and their blind handovers of trillions of dollars to a highly corrupt regime in Ukraine that is as corrupt, if not more, then the Russian crooks in place. 

[Luuk Chaai]

14 hours ago, wwest5829 said:

. Additionally, recently check on my retirement funds invested in USA are down about one year’s total income (close to $30K).

using the wrong broker ???

 

Thank you Mr. President ...     My $$$ retirement accts are doing really well

 

[Aussie999]

18 hours ago, soalbundy said:

In my defense....Thailand was mentioned. Next time I'll send you a copy and you can redraft it for me, don't want to increase your irritability.

You chose to take it outside of Thailand...why is that hard to understand.

[soalbundy]

14 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Temporary nonsense. Trump's economic policies might not benefit nor be favorable with other countries governments and financial institutions, but they are favorable for (the future of) the American economy, and that includes (foreign and domestic) investors. I expect record growth in the coming quarters for American exporters.

 

As for the US Dollar being replaced by any other currencies - dream on. Ain't happening anytime soon.

What is obvious at the moment is that due to the chaotic unpredictable policies of the  USA other countries don't want to buy American debt anymore. During this year a part of the American debt (37 trillion dollars) namely 9 trillion has to be rolled over but there seems to be a lack of interest in the traditional buyers, on the contrary these past reliable buyers (China and Japan) are selling the debt they already have. If raising the interest to be paid on that debt to ridiculous levels doesn't tempt buyers the Fed will have to step in further reducing confidence in the dollar. What's the point of getting 5% interest from the USA on bonds if the dollar depreciates by 10%. Gold and BRICS are throwing a giant spanner in the works and it would seem that the dollar is losing its status as a reserve currency, countries are starting to do business by accepting each others currencies. Saudi Arabia has already shown that the petro dollar is dead. Even with Trump gone trust in the rule of law in the USA has died an ignoble death. A fine example of the Buddhist principle that all is impermanent.

[Srikcir]

On 6/12/2025 at 3:39 PM, snoop1130 said:

forecasting a moderate strengthening of the baht against the US dollar during the latter half of the year.

Versus the government's constant drum beat that the baht is "collapsing." And for that reason has been demanding BOT reduce interest rates.

Truth beats political aspirations.

Makes me speculate whether certain government officials have shorted the baht on expectation of a baht rise that results in a capital gain. Called 'market manipulation'?

[DrPhibes]

On 6/13/2025 at 3:03 PM, Hardcastle P said:

True but its the dollar weakening not the Thi bht getting stronger 

Agree, brought over our living expenses for the rest of the year a week ago from our account that only accumulates US Social Security so not taxable to Thailand.  Have only seen more degradation of the dollar since.