American Stock Market CRASH!!! Housing Market CRASH!!! When?

[Quentin Zen]

Plan is to move back to America during the next housing market crash, buy a place cash money, and then maybe rent it out in five years and come back.  

 

Or not.

 

Next year I could buy, but inventories are spiking, the talking heads are blah, blah, blah, and a 400k house should be priced at 200k.  Yes, I am the market.  I'm thinking the market will crash in 2027.  I've learned these things take time, usually a year longer than you think.  Mid-2026 might be a guess, but my gut says it's early.   No way there's another move up before down.  Impossible!!! Stock market will likely make new highs, that's normal, but no way houses in Denver, Austin, California, Florida hit new highs before down 20%.   Impossible!!! lol.  

 

Might be easier to rent in Thailand forever, but isn't it fun paying property tax, never HOA, and fixing everything yourself?  I digress.

 

In a few months I'll be out of the stock market forever, so I'm not too worried what happens there.  

 

Since everyone here will be wrong, I need to know what answer will NOT be correct.  Hahahahhahahaha.  So, yes, I'm probably wrong as well.  

 

Talk to me, gurus.  

 

Tell me the way

[Harrisfan]

2029

[Peter Crow]

10 minutes ago, Quentin Zen said:

400k house should be priced at 200k. 

400k sound very cheap, where could one get a house for that price, maybe some ruin in Romania. 

 

[Harrisfan]

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

[save the frogs]

11 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

 

2030 is the WEF "Great Reset" ..

 

But anything can happen before then. 

 

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/

[Quentin Zen]

1 hour ago, Peter Crow said:

400k sound very cheap, where could one get a house for that price, maybe some ruin in Romania. 

 

The average housing price in the United States is currently around $503,800. This figure represents the average sales price of homes sold in the U.S. during the first quarter of 2025, according to The Motley Fool. Alternatively, the median price of a home in the US is around $441,738. 

 

I could easily go 500k if I want a loan of like 100k.  which I don't think I do, but I might.

[Airalee]

I’m looking too.
 

Follow the adjustable rate mortgages.  When the 30 year fixed started to rise around 2022, the spread between fixed and ARMs was wide enough to drive people into 2.xx% adjustables with 3, 5 and 7 year resets.  The 3 year ARMs are already resetting and with interest rates being much higher now, it will drive mortgage payments up substantially (up to 70% higher payments by my calculations).
 

From following the past sales, prices have either stagnated or are already crashing depending upon where you are looking.

 

[FlorC]

ASAP.

[newbee2022]

2 hours ago, Quentin Zen said:

Plan is to move back to America during the next housing market crash, buy a place cash money, and then maybe rent it out in five years and come back.  

 

Or not.

 

Next year I could buy, but inventories are spiking, the talking heads are blah, blah, blah, and a 400k house should be priced at 200k.  Yes, I am the market.  I'm thinking the market will crash in 2027.  I've learned these things take time, usually a year longer than you think.  Mid-2026 might be a guess, but my gut says it's early.   No way there's another move up before down.  Impossible!!! Stock market will likely make new highs, that's normal, but no way houses in Denver, Austin, California, Florida hit new highs before down 20%.   Impossible!!! lol.  

 

Might be easier to rent in Thailand forever, but isn't it fun paying property tax, never HOA, and fixing everything yourself?  I digress.

 

In a few months I'll be out of the stock market forever, so I'm not too worried what happens there.  

 

Since everyone here will be wrong, I need to know what answer will NOT be correct.  Hahahahhahahaha.  So, yes, I'm probably wrong as well.  

 

Talk to me, gurus.  

 

Tell me the way

Well, that's quite interesting.

First, you'll have to wait for a higher inflation.

Analysts expect around 5-8 percent within the next 1-2 years.

Then the Fed will rise the interest rate. Analysts say around 9 percent.

Then loans are not paid back.

The stock market will show it.

Some banks involved in financing these loans will get bankrupt.

This is the time to buy cash.

[Quentin Zen]

5 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, Quentin Zen said:

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

WD Gann invented it 100 years ago

[swissie]

It's all a bit "pricey". Stocks, Gold and the price of a kitchen sink. Whats wrong with taking partial profits after a good run?

 

"Resets" are a normal occurrance.

 

It takes a certain "trigger" that reverses market trends. Possibly this time around, it will take the realisation that the recent economic "growth" was carried by "productivity increases" BUT MAINLY by creating a "credit bubble" unprecedented in human history.

 

Could be the reason for a major "reset". 

 

[swissie]

11 hours ago, Quentin Zen said:

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

Also personal lives are affected by "cycles". Careerwise or how often you were married/divorced. 🙂

[KhunLA]

22 hours ago, Quentin Zen said:

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

 

If people only live by what they are told.   Buddha forbid people think for themselves, as swissie points out, way more factors than what's in MSM BS.

 

11 hours ago, swissie said:

Also personal lives are affected by "cycles". Careerwise or how often you were married/divorced. 🙂

 

Agree and MSM pushed 'trends' don't effect free thinkers, unless you are an idiot.   

 

Had 6 live in relationships (4 of, married), along with 30+ jobs, most less than 1 year (last one was 13 yrs).   Self employed half of the time in the USA, along with RE & market investing.

 

MSM BS didn't mean much of anything, except interest rates, and didn't stop or influence much at all.   Simply adjust & adapt to conditions of the day, week, month or year.

[Patong2021]

17 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

 

If people only live by what they are told.   Buddha forbid people think for themselves, as swissie points out, way more factors than what's in MSM BS.

 

 

Agree and MSM pushed 'trends' don't effect free thinkers, unless you are an idiot.   

 

Had 6 live in relationships (4 of, married), along with 30+ jobs, most less than 1 year (last one was 13 yrs).   Self employed half of the time in the USA, along with RE & market investing.

 

MSM BS didn't mean much of anything, except interest rates, and didn't stop or influence much at all.   Simply adjust & adapt to conditions of the day, week, month or year.

 

There is no mainstream media, and there has not been for 15 years+. The internet changed everything. Print media, news radio and national TV networks were once mainstream media, but they are a shadow of themselves. Am news radio is dead. Print news is in palliative care. Network news is on life support. Tiktok, X, facebook, and other social media are the new MSM and it shows with the ease in which conspiracy claims and disinformation are so easily spread.

 

The principles of the stock market have not changed in a century and the reality is that the most successful participants rely on inside knowledge and market manipulation. Some people get excited if they make a profit of 25,000 or even 100,000, but it is nothing compared to the market titans who measure their profits in millions. The reality is that the stock market is a closed system, which means that for someone to make a large profit, someone else is going to be paying for it, particularly with US traded firms, and that someone is usually going to be the small investor.

 

[KhunLA]

44 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Tiktok, X, facebook, and other social media are the new MSM and it shows with the ease in which conspiracy claims and disinformation are so easily spread.

 

Agree. and MSM is everything & anything controlled by the few, which include all you pointed out.  Most people are still too stupid to realize how controlled most info is that they get.  AN is a fine example of the ignorance and influence of information control, at it's best.

 

Truly is mind boggling.   Embarrassing actually.

[Jenkins9039]

On 6/23/2025 at 8:13 AM, Quentin Zen said:

Plan is to move back to America during the next housing market crash, buy a place cash money, and then maybe rent it out in five years and come back.  

 

Or not.

 

Next year I could buy, but inventories are spiking, the talking heads are blah, blah, blah, and a 400k house should be priced at 200k.  Yes, I am the market.  I'm thinking the market will crash in 2027.  I've learned these things take time, usually a year longer than you think.  Mid-2026 might be a guess, but my gut says it's early.   No way there's another move up before down.  Impossible!!! Stock market will likely make new highs, that's normal, but no way houses in Denver, Austin, California, Florida hit new highs before down 20%.   Impossible!!! lol.  

 

Might be easier to rent in Thailand forever, but isn't it fun paying property tax, never HOA, and fixing everything yourself?  I digress.

 

In a few months I'll be out of the stock market forever, so I'm not too worried what happens there.  

 

Since everyone here will be wrong, I need to know what answer will NOT be correct.  Hahahahhahahaha.  So, yes, I'm probably wrong as well.  

 

Talk to me, gurus.  

 

Tell me the way

Since 2008 we've been in a perpetual debasement era via CB BS accumulation, at a 8% clip annually (monetary inflation) and 2/4% clip annually for CPI (variable inflation).

The stock market rises optically inline (SP500) with this, Nasdaq outpaces it due to it offsetting the cause (demographics), when ever there's financial issues - namely liquidity constraints either domestic, or in the Eurodollar Markets they introduce new techniques into inject liquidity.

What does that mean, sure eventually it will crash (and won't recover in nominal terms) but in real terms real-estate in the US looses 2.7% against the hurdle rate 12% annually (8% + 4%) and thats before taxes, maintenance, etc 

 

You are better off investing in EM specifically in the Monsoon Region, diversified of-course but in real terms that will return more without all the hurdles, and without all the taxes.

[wavodavo]

On 6/23/2025 at 12:19 PM, save the frogs said:

 

2030 is the WEF "Great Reset" ..

 

But anything can happen before then. 

 

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/

Isn't 2030 the cut off date for climate change ??? We will  all roast from the high temputures.and be dead so you won't need a house jk.

[Harrisfan]

On 6/23/2025 at 1:41 PM, Harrisfan said:

WD Gann invented it 100 years ago

Two thumbs down from the losers

[Harrisfan]

34 minutes ago, wavodavo said:

Isn't 2030 the cut off date for climate change ??? We will  all roast from the high temputures.and be dead so you won't need a house jk.

We were supposed to be dead by 2020

[Harrisfan]

Thumbs down stalker is back 

[DezLez]

2 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Thumbs down stalker is back 

That should make you happy!!