File photo for reference only

 

India is on track to achieve its tenth consecutive record rice crop in 2026, as global stocks continue to swell. According to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) recent Rice Outlook report, global rice production for 2025/26 is projected at 540.4 million tonnes, a slight decrease from November's estimate but with India's output set to rise. Meanwhile, Thai rice prices have increased due to export deals with China and Singapore, even as Cambodia's exports decline.

 

The USDA's report notes that global rice production is declining in countries like Madagascar and the Philippines, yet increasing in India, which has become the world's largest rice producer since 2024/25. The larger harvested area in India is the primary driver of this increase. Global rice supplies are forecasted at a record 730.7 million tonnes for 2025/26, mainly due to higher beginning stocks, particularly in India.

 

Increased consumption in countries such as Bangladesh, India, and Thailand contributes to record-high global consumption forecasts, despite a slight overall decrease. However, global ending stocks are expected to rise to 188.8 million tonnes, driven by India's increased stock. Consequently, global rice trade is anticipated to hit a record 62.8 million tonnes in 2026, with significant contributions from Myanmar and China.

 

Thailand’s reaction to the shifting landscape includes rising rice prices, driven by governmental deals with China and Singapore. Indian rice prices have slightly decreased due to abundant output, contrasting with Thailand’s price surge. The report also highlighted the need for strategic rice production restructuring, as underscored by Thailand’s Agriculture Ministry, which seeks to cut costs and promote alternative methods.

 

Looking forward, Thailand aims to restructure its rice production system to better suit market demands. Plans include zoning for different rice varieties, supporting sustainable agricultural practices, and enhancing market access. Meanwhile, Thailand is also considering innovative rubber production management to improve farmer livelihoods, reported The Nation.

 

Key Takeaways

• India is set to achieve a record rice crop in 2026, driving global stock increases.
• Thai rice prices rise due to China and Singapore deals, contrasting with India's price drop.
• Thailand plans to restructure rice production, focusing on cost reduction and suitability.

 

Related Stories:

Thai Ministry Promotes New Fragrant Rice for Health Market

Thai Farmers Welcome 500,000 Tonne Rice Order from China

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-12-23

 

 

 

Great, they'll breed even faster now. 

I'm sure Thailand is going to lower the THB now to stay competitive. 😄