Myanmar’s civil war, already one of the world’s most complex conflicts, is being reshaped by a resource hidden beneath its soil: rare earth minerals. As the military junta presses ahead with elections widely dismissed as a façade, rebel groups continue to battle across the countryside. Yet analysts warn that the struggle for power is increasingly tied to control of rare earth deposits, a commodity vital to global technology and defence industries.

Myanmar has become a critical supplier of heavy rare earth elements, with most exports flowing into China for processing. Since the 2021 coup, the country has shipped more than 290,000 metric tons of rare earth materials to China, valued at over $4.2 billion. Much of this trade originates from rebel-held territories, giving armed groups both revenue and leverage in their fight against the junta.

Rare earths are indispensable for electric vehicles, wind turbines, advanced electronics and military systems. China dominates the refining process, giving it enormous influence over global supply chains. In recent years, Beijing has tightened export controls, prompting countries such as India, Japan and the United States to seek alternative sources. Myanmar’s deposits, though fraught with political risk, have drawn growing international attention.

India’s interest is particularly notable. Reports suggest New Delhi has engaged with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), a powerful rebel group controlling rich deposits in northern Myanmar. Such moves could complicate the conflict further, introducing new geopolitical rivalries into an already fractured landscape. Analysts caution that China, which relies heavily on Myanmar’s exports, will not tolerate rivals exploiting resources along its border.

The stakes are high. While some argue that investment in rare earths could bring stability, others fear it will entrench predatory economies and prolong the war. “Because of the high-stakes nature of rare earths, all armed actors will vie for access and profit,” warns researcher Angshuman Choudhury. “That may incentivise them to fight on rather than pursue peace.”

For Myanmar, the rare earth boom is both an opportunity and a peril. It offers potential wealth and international engagement, but risks deepening a conflict already driven by power, territory and survival. As global demand intensifies, the minerals beneath Myanmar’s soil may prove as decisive as the weapons above it.

-2026-01-15

Thanks AN, this is a good article. So difficult. I was lucky enough to spend some time in Yangon before this coup and found the people to be really friendly and decent. I can only imagine the even greater difficulties now met by the people I spent a little time with.

4 hours ago, Watawattana said:

Thanks AN, this is a good article. So difficult. I was lucky enough to spend some time in Yangon before this coup and found the people to be really friendly and decent. I can only imagine the even greater difficulties now met by the people I spent a little time with.

Yes indeed, very friendly and welcoming people, not only in Rangoon, but in Mandalay, Bagan and Hsipaw when I visited before the coup.