ASEAN faces pressure on Myanmar war, sea pact

Top diplomats from Southeast Asia gathered in Cebu on Wednesday under mounting pressure to revive a stalled peace plan for Myanmar’s civil war and to meet a looming deadline on a long-delayed pact with China over the South China Sea.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an 11-member bloc, has struggled to maintain unity and credibility in recent years. Its challenges deepened after Myanmar’s military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in 2021, sparking a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. ASEAN does not recognise the junta, barring its leaders from meetings, though lower-level officials have been allowed to attend.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, serving as ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, is expected to brief ministers on her recent visit to the country and on a conference she hosted in Manila with opposition groups. The discussions focused on enforcing ASEAN’s five-point peace plan, which calls for an immediate end to hostilities, humanitarian aid, and dialogue among all sides. So far, the plan has failed to stem the violence.

The bloc also faces pressure to finalise a “code of conduct” with China to manage disputes in the South China Sea. Beijing’s expansive claims overlap with those of four ASEAN members, raising fears of escalation that could draw in U.S. forces. Washington has warned it is bound by treaty to defend the Philippines if attacked in the contested waters.

Negotiations on the code have dragged on for more than two decades, with little progress on key issues such as whether the pact should be legally binding. ASEAN has set itself a deadline to conclude talks by the end of 2026, but analysts warn that deep differences between claimant states and China over international law remain the main obstacle.

Australia-based analyst Lupita Wijaya noted that “even with a strong political will, concluding it will remain challenging,” stressing that the roadblock lies in fundamental disagreements rather than the pace of talks.

For ASEAN, the Cebu meeting underscores the urgency of proving its relevance—by pushing forward on Myanmar’s peace process and preventing the South China Sea from becoming the region’s next flashpoint.

-2026-01-29