Picture courtesy of TNR

The Democrat Party, led by former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, is forecast to win nearly 40 MP seats in the 8 February election, largely from southern constituencies, according to comments by NIDA Poll director Suvicha Pouaree. If realised, the result would restore the party’s long-standing dominance in parts of the South and position it as the fourth-largest bloc in parliament.

Suvicha said Abhisit’s Old School conservative camp is expected to secure nearly 30 of the 59 constituency seats in the 14 southern provinces, alongside about a dozen MPs elected via the party-list system. This would bring the Democrats close to 40 seats nationwide, roughly on par with the Klatham party, which he suggested could also win around 40 seats across the country, including some in the South.

In the 2023 general election, the Democrats won 25 seats nationwide, of which 22 were constituency MPs and three were party-list MPs. Only 17 of those seats came from southern constituencies, marking a significant decline from earlier elections when the party routinely dominated the region under previous leadership.

The latest NIDA assessment contrasts with a more optimistic forecast by de facto Klatham leader Thammanat Prompao, who has predicted his party will win as many as 70 seats nationwide. Thammanat has suggested these gains would come mainly from northern, north-eastern and southern constituencies.

Suvicha’s comments followed a NIDA poll conducted in Nakhon Si Thammarat, which found 51% of respondents expressing renewed support for the Democrats under Abhisit, who is contesting the premiership against leaders of other major parties. In the previous election, southern seats were divided among several parties, including 12 won by Bhumjaithai, 14 by Ruam Thai Sang Chart, seven by Palang Pracharath, seven by Prachachart and three by the now court-dissolved Move Forward.

Bhumjaithai deputy prime minister and transport minister Pipat Ratchakitprakarn, who oversees his party’s southern campaign, has separately predicted that Bhumjaithai could capture up to 30 southern seats. Analysts expect intense competition in constituency races between Bhumjaithai, Klatham, the Democrats and the reformist People’s Party, while Pheu Thai is widely expected to fail to win any southern seats.

ThaiNewsRoom reported that a separate TSU Poll conducted earlier this month by Thaksin University among 1,660 mainly young, first-time southern voters found 40% intending to vote for the People’s Party, followed by 22% for the Democrats, 15% for Bhumjaithai and 5% for Palang Pracharath. The same poll found 30% preferred People’s leader Nattapong Ruengpanyawut as prime minister, compared with 20% for Abhisit.

Key Takeaways

• NIDA Poll forecasts the Democrats could win nearly 40 seats, mostly from southern constituencies, in the 8 February election.

• Competing forecasts from Klatham and Bhumjaithai suggest fierce competition for southern seats among conservative parties.

• Separate polling shows strong support among young southern voters for the People’s Party despite Democrat gains.

  

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Thainewsroom 2026-01-30

 

 

Anyone but Anutin. He would be the worst choice possible. He is beyond toxic and a regressive dinosaur. Besides the cannabis legislation he has never done anything good for his people.

18 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Anyone but Anutin. He would be the worst choice possible. He is beyond toxic and a regressive dinosaur. Besides the cannabis legislation he has never done anything good for his people.

Really? The democrats and the South are not a good combination. Remember the allegations of corruption that attached to Mr. S. and his southern friends? Do you believe anything has changed? As soon as I see mention of Nahkon Si Thammarat, I think of gutter politics and cronyism and the dark days of corruption in Marseille, Manchester & Chicago.

I note your criticisms of Anutin. If you apply the same standards to Abhisit the same can be said of him, except the words would be more disparaging and would include terms such as weak, cowardly, incompetent and useless.

Abhisit (Mark) Vejjajiva seems like a fundamentally decent sort in the rogue's gallery of Thai politicians.

3 hours ago, CMHomeboy78 said:

Abhisit (Mark) Vejjajiva seems like a fundamentally decent sort in the rogue's gallery of Thai politicians.

He won’t get to be PM again.

The voters never quite forgiven him and his party for betraying them in 2008 and jumping into bed with the then military junta

1 hour ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He won’t get to be PM again.

The voters never quite forgiven him and his party for betraying them in 2008 and jumping into bed with the then military junta

True in Issan where the Democrats have never been popular, being seen as a party for the South and/ or the middle class.

But he's a decent and intelligent man, the Dems should team up with the People's Party post election, either in government or opposition.

If the former, Abhisit could return to Parliament as a minister.

3 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

The voters never quite forgiven him and his party for betraying them in 2008 and jumping into bed with the then military junta

Southern voters now seem to have; none of the other parties have proved much use to the south. The recent floods being the final straw I think.

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Anyone but Anutin. He would be the worst choice possible. He is beyond toxic and a regressive dinosaur. Besides the cannabis legislation he has never done anything good for his people.

The other parties seem worse with their solutions, all of which seem intent on expanding the tax base and spending huge amounts of money. Not sure who to root for.

On 1/30/2026 at 6:01 AM, Georgealbert said:

de facto Klatham leader Thammanat Prompao, who has predicted his party will win as many as 70 seats nationwide.

The fact that thousands of people will vote for a drug smuggler boggles the mind🙄

9 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

The voters never quite forgiven him and his party for betraying them in 2008 and jumping into bed with the then military junta

That's the way I see it.

However, should the election go in a direction that certain people are unhappy with, out roll the tanks, and guess who will be the caretaker PM? 🤣

17 hours ago, davb said:

The other parties seem worse with their solutions, all of which seem intent on expanding the tax base and spending huge amounts of money. Not sure who to root for.

Well unlike in the past when we had a candidate like Thanathorn or Pita, there is no nobody exceptional this time around, and unfortunately it's a fairly poor selection, though not as poor as Americans had last time around during their presidential election.

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Well unlike in the past when we had a candidate like Thanathorn or Pita, there is no nobody exceptional this time around, and unfortunately it's a fairly poor selection, though not as poor as Americans had last time around during their presidential election.

I now support Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and UTN. Conservative-leaning, which means stability, and doesn't seem in favor of expanding the tax base.

1 hour ago, davb said:

I now support Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and UTN. Conservative-leaning, which means stability, and doesn't seem in favor of expanding the tax base.

I associate conservative leaning with conventional and old school, traditional, and allied with the elite and big business, and anti progress, which to me means totally bought and paid for.

Am I wrong?.

Are there any candidates who running on a a campaign of banning visa free for Indians ? And stricter policing for Benidorm Brits ? And a stricter control of foreigners taking over land, jobs, and communities.

7 hours ago, DonniePeverley said:

Are there any candidates who running on a a campaign of banning visa free for Indians ? And stricter policing for Benidorm Brits ? And a stricter control of foreigners taking over land, jobs, and communities.

Sadly no.

If there were, they'd get my vote too if I was eligible to cast it.

On a personal level, Mark is the best of a bad lot.

On the party level, the Democrats have been knee-deep in the cesspool of Thai politics since their founding in 1946. It would be too much to expect them to come out smelling of roses.

Just now, DaddyWarbucks said:

Sadly no.

If there were, they'd get my vote too if I was eligible to cast it.

On a personal level, Mark is the best of a bad lot.

On the party level, the Democrats have been knee-deep in the cesspool of Thai politics since their founding in 1946. It would be too much to expect them to come out smelling of roses.

I can guarentee if a candidate came out with some Trump style xenophobia against tourists, mass migration (which is happening in Thailand) they would garner alot of support.

5 minutes ago, DonniePeverley said:

I can guarentee if a candidate came out with some Trump style xenophobia against tourists, mass migration (which is happening in Thailand) they would garner alot of support.

plus a get tough with cambodia, a sure vote winner

1 minute ago, it is what it is said:

plus a get tough with cambodia, a sure vote winner

1) Cambodia - check

2) Some push back against visitors causing havoc - check

3) Some push back against indian tourism - check

On 1/31/2026 at 10:25 AM, CMHomeboy78 said:

Abhisit (Mark) Vejjajiva seems like a fundamentally decent sort in the rogue's gallery of Thai politicians.

Good guys finish last

Decent doesn’t cut it in Thai politics just like his predecessor Democrat PM Chuan

Anyway Mark had his shot and he screwed it uo