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What is Going On Here?

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Let me channel Marvin Gaye here and ask, What's Going On?

This is a chart of Repos from the NY Fed over the last 6 years. Why the sudden explosion?

There are reports that JP Morgan had shorted 5900 tonnes of silver late last year, and the rapid run up does look like a short covering blowoff. Also, JPMorgan and many other banks had taken large long position in crypto. The bitcoin move from $126,000 down to $60,000 had to hurt. These banks also had loans to people speculating in crypto, so maybe a double whammy.

There are a host of data that make one pause right now, the Repo jump just being one of them.

Here's a chart of Total Stock Market Capitalization vs US GDP over the last 50 years, ending on 2-14-2026.

Scary.

Here's a chart of margin debt in the stock market over 5 years. All time high.

While none of these on their own suggest a day of reckoning, they are concerning. Of course speculative bubbles can last a long time.

Consider these numbers:

Total US Federal Debt: $38.7 trillion, or $355,000 per US Taxpayer.

Federal Debt to US GDP: 124%

Foreign Ownership of US Debt: 25% of total (best not to alienate these buyers)

Total Consumer Credit Card Debt Now:  $43.7 trillion (=141% of US GDP)

Median income in 2000: $31,656

Median House Price in 2000: $162.050

Average Car Price in 2000: $22,134

Median income in 2026: $51,697

Median House Price in 2026: $413.742

Average Car Price in 2026: $51,355

So what does it all mean? That is the question. It would seem that now would be a good time to be cautious, but bubbles can last a looooooong time.

Repo.jpg

Mkt2GDP.jpg

MarginDebt.jpg

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Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007. Everything that was in the red

  • Harrisfan
    Harrisfan

    So you are a coward. I knew it lol

  • Harrisfan
    Harrisfan

    Your posts are strange.

Posted Images

The real Bulls and Bears who influence the markets are the whales.

They can dictatate what happens in stock and crypto markets.

Small players can gamble and make a lucky punch. Not more and not less.

I gambled myself for a few years and luckywise (because of gold) ended last year with a zero after losses with crypto. No gains, but no loss either. I'm happy with the outcome and the expiereance I was able to make.

My money now is mostly in CHF.

I'll stick with that and can sleep without worries.

  • Popular Post

I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007.

Everything that was in the red I kept, and as of today they are still in the red, some even have gone deeper.

Haven't bought any stocks since then.

Speculating on the stock market was great before the digital age approached. When you see stocks have a daily move of 10-20% without any significant news public (YET), then you know it is all rigged.

Last year I went big into gold, and still hold at a massive profit, mainly because in the bank you get 1% and in the US they elected a clown.

Currently I'm watching closely, because I can feel the whales are gaming the market in gold again, and the small player will get hurt.

One advice I want to give is, don't rely on the news you read on the financial news sites, since they are just journalists with little knowledge, and post what the whales dictate.

Make decisions by your own feelings, and rather act to the opposite of what you read in those financial news articles.

  • Popular Post
2 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007.

Everything that was in the red I kept, and as of today they are still in the red, some even have gone deeper.

Haven't bought any stocks since then.

Speculating on the stock market was great before the digital age approached. When you see stocks have a daily move of 10-20% without any significant news public (YET), then you know it is all rigged.

Last year I went big into gold, and still hold at a massive profit, mainly because in the bank you get 1% and in the US they elected a clown.

Currently I'm watching closely, because I can feel the whales are gaming the market in gold again, and the small player will get hurt.

One advice I want to give is, don't rely on the news you read on the financial news sites, since they are just journalists with little knowledge, and post what the whales dictate.

Make decisions by your own feelings, and rather act to the opposite of what you read in those financial news articles.

Best time to buy is after crashes.

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

Best time to buy is after crashes.

Wow another excellent advice. How about buy low and sell high?

How about the best time to sell is before it crashes?

8 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

One advice I want to give is, don't rely on the news you read on the financial news sites, since they are just journalists with little knowledge, and post what the whales dictate.

The whales don't control the market long term. Profits do. If a company increases their eps 10% a year they typically go up 10% a year. If it increases by more they go up by more.

All Buffett does is take 10 years historical eps and project forward then calculate likely return.

8 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

How about the best time to sell is before it crashes?

Best time to sell is never with good companies. You sold the good ones and kept the duds. You are supposed to do the opposite.

  • Popular Post
2 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

The whales don't control the market long term. Profits do. If a company increases their eps 10% a year they typically go up 10% a year. If it increases by more they go up by more.

All Buffett does is take 10 years historical eps and project forward then calculate likely return.

Oh yeah, the past is a guarantee for the future. And you called me an idiot?

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

Oh yeah, the past is a guarantee for the future. And you called me an idiot?

The past is the best predictor of future behaviour.

What do you think Buffett does? Throw darts? Lol

  • Popular Post
32 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Best time to buy is after crashes.

After you’ve lost everything.

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

After you’ve lost everything.

Why would you lose everything?

12 hours ago, Wingate said:

Let me channel Marvin Gaye here and ask, What's Going On?

This is a chart of Repos from the NY Fed over the last 6 years. Why the sudden explosion?

There are reports that JP Morgan had shorted 5900 tonnes of silver late last year, and the rapid run up does look like a short covering blowoff. Also, JPMorgan and many other banks had taken large long position in crypto. The bitcoin move from $126,000 down to $60,000 had to hurt. These banks also had loans to people speculating in crypto, so maybe a double whammy.

There are a host of data that make one pause right now, the Repo jump just being one of them.

Here's a chart of Total Stock Market Capitalization vs US GDP over the last 50 years, ending on 2-14-2026.

Scary.

Here's a chart of margin debt in the stock market over 5 years. All time high.

While none of these on their own suggest a day of reckoning, they are concerning. Of course speculative bubbles can last a long time.

Consider these numbers:

Total US Federal Debt: $38.7 trillion, or $355,000 per US Taxpayer.

Federal Debt to US GDP: 124%

Foreign Ownership of US Debt: 25% of total (best not to alienate these buyers)

Total Consumer Credit Card Debt Now:  $43.7 trillion (=141% of US GDP)

Median income in 2000: $31,656

Median House Price in 2000: $162.050

Average Car Price in 2000: $22,134

Median income in 2026: $51,697

Median House Price in 2026: $413.742

Average Car Price in 2026: $51,355

So what does it all mean? That is the question. It would seem that now would be a good time to be cautious, but bubbles can last a looooooong time.

Repo.jpg

Mkt2GDP.jpg

MarginDebt.jpg

I recommend Max at UNFTR.

He’s been covering this for over a year now.

19 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

The past is the best predictor of future behaviour.

What do you think Buffett does? Throw darts? Lol

He doesn’t invest in crypto.

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

Why would you lose everything?

OK you might not loose everything.

I’m sure you’ll still have the pot to pee in, if not the window to throw it out of.

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

OK you might not loose everything.

I’m sure you’ll still have the pot to pee in, if not the window to throw it out of.

All just paper gains or losses. Unless you trade on margin you wont lose it all.

  • Popular Post
9 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

He doesn’t invest in crypto.

Crypto is a scam. Good scam mind you.

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

All just paper gains or losses. Unless you trade on margin you wont lose it all.

There are lots of other reasons to lose.

The US defaulting on its debt being one.

Non bank loans crashing the whole economy being another.

There’s a reason why the OP mentions the Repo market.

It’s not looking good.

7 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Crypto is a scam. Good scam mind you.

It is only a "good scam" to the scammer, not to those who are scammed!

8 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

There are lots of other reasons to lose.

The US defaulting on its debt being one.

Non bank loans crashing the whole economy being another.

There’s a reason why the OP mentions the Repo market.

It’s not looking good.

Buy put options then.

  • Author

I posted this because I found all of these things curious. I've always been a data wonk, so seeing these charts grabbed my attention.

I have no idea why the NY Fed suddenly opened the spigots wide. I do know that in a poorly covered change of policy, on 10 Dec 2025 they removed the limit on use of the Repo window. That suggests they knew liquidity was tight, I guess.

The other two charts spook me: highest value to GDP and highest margin debt ever.

All of the boundless optimism smells a bit like Japan 1989 and US 1929, but I cannot figure how the AI boom affects everything. Maybe it's all coming up roses? I do know that AI is a daisy chain where there has to be an eventual end user, and since that is usually the consumer, I don't know how AI shakes out when 25%+ of the workforce---which is the consumer---is obviated by AI. It's nice chipmakers will sell, hyperscalers will build, energy will be used in volume, companies will become more efficient....but then what? If nobody has any money, productive efficiency will be meaningless. I just see society more and more bifurcated, with those closest to the beginning of the daisy chain becoming trillionaires, and the masses falling from even their current modest position.

If there ever was a time when the phrase "this time is different" is true, it might be now.

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Low inflation

Low unemployment

Why would the markets crash?

Liquidity crisis.

And any stupid stunt Trump pulls.

17 hours ago, CallumWK said:

I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007.

Everything that was in the red I kept, and as of today they are still in the red, some even have gone deeper.

Haven't bought any stocks since then.

Speculating on the stock market was great before the digital age approached.

One of the funniest posts ever on this forum. The Nasdaq has 10X'ed since 2007. A monkey stockpicking by throwing 50 darts at random Nasdaq stocks in 2007 would have 10 X'ed their original cash. Yet you still sit on losses🤣

When the forum left were losing their minds over the big beautiful tariffs I posted (to much downthumbing and 555 emojis) I was buying. The tech trust i used for this plan has doubled since then.

The moron Michael Burry was blabbering at the time about the markets going to crash and how he was shorting it. Sentiment echo'ed by the Trump haters here. Now he still says the same, and even brags about being successful. Unbelievable stupidity.

When the herd panic sells its time to buy. When celebratory backslapping and a we're going to the moon sentiment prevails its time to sell. Dont follow the herd.

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Liquidity crisis.

And any stupid stunt Trump pulls.

5 elliot waves

High pe

A bear market could well be

Not sure about a 1 day crash

12 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

5 elliot waves

High pe

A bear market could well be

Not sure about a 1 day crash

You remind me of a guy I used to work with.

He used to read out the stock news and lunch breaks, telling us how much he’d made without lifting a finger. He had all the catch phrases and the ability to joyfully proclaim gains, while ‘taking losses’ as nothing to be concerned over.

He died on a trailer park.

I wonder who got his fortune.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You remind me of a guy I used to work with.

He used to read out the stock news and lunch breaks, telling us how much he’d made in without lifting a finger. He had all the catch phrases and the ability to joyfully proclaim gains, while ‘taking losses’ as nothing to be concerned over.

He died on a trailer park.

I wonder who got his fortune.

You remind me of someone who hates Trump.

What catch phrases did I use?

30 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Liquidity crisis.

And any stupid stunt Trump pulls.

So whats your prediction for the Dow for Dec 1 this year?

Or you too scared to make one?

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