Myanmar Junta’s Budget Built on Fantasy

Sean Turnell, The Irrawaddy

Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing has unveiled a budget for 2026-27 that economists say bears little resemblance to reality, projecting growth in an economy battered by war, capital flight and soaring inflation.

Presenting himself as acting president, the junta boss claimed GDP would reach 195 trillion kyats (about US$93 billion at official rates) with growth of 3.4 per cent. Yet independent assessments paint a far bleaker picture. The World Bank estimates the economy shrank by 2 per cent in 2025-26, following years of contraction since the 2021 coup and compounded by last year’s devastating earthquake.

Min Aung Hlaing’s figures rely on an artificial exchange rate that vastly inflates the dollar value of Myanmar’s economy.

Ordinary citizens, meanwhile, face daily price hikes, fuel rationing and widespread shortages. Poverty has climbed to 31 per cent, with 17 million people below the national line, while inflation hit 34 per cent in 2025.

Economist Sean Turnell dismissed the junta’s projections as “so fictional he could be in the running for the Booker Prize,” noting the absurdity of forecasting growth amid fuel shortages and mass displacement.

The World Bank’s cautious forecast of 3 per cent growth for 2026-27 is itself framed as a statistical rebound from rock bottom, driven by forced reconstruction rather than genuine recovery. With border trade routes slipping from military control, foreign investment drying up and millions of young people fleeing conscription, Myanmar’s economy is described as “surviving, not thriving.”

Behind the numbers lies a humanitarian crisis. More than 3.6 million people are internally displaced, and over 15 million face acute food insecurity. As Min Aung Hlaing urges officials to prioritise agro-based industries, the reality outside Naypyitaw’s council chambers is stark: a collapsing currency, worsening power cuts and a population struggling to endure the consequences of economic fantasy.

-2024-03-11