A nationwide poll has revealed growing concern among Thais over the country’s oil reserves and the potential impact on Songkran travel, with many expressing doubts about supply security. The findings suggest that uncertainty over fuel availability could disrupt domestic travel plans during one of the year’s busiest holiday periods. Some respondents indicated they would cancel or adjust trips if the situation persists.

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The survey, conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), polled 1,310 people by telephone on March 17 and 18. It examined public confidence in oil reserves, which were stated to be sufficient for 98 days as of March 13, as well as the government’s ability to secure additional supplies. The poll was titled “Fuel shortage: even a chat with your partner means lights out”.

Results showed that 44.28% of respondents lacked confidence in both the sufficiency of reserves and the government’s ability to procure more fuel. Meanwhile, 28.93% expressed confidence in both, 16.72% doubted reserves but believed more oil could be secured, and 9.54% trusted reserves would last but questioned future procurement. A small 0.53% did not respond or were not interested.

Public concern levels were mixed, with 31.76% saying they were somewhat concerned and 26.64% not very concerned. A further 23.89% said they were not concerned at all, while 17.71% reported being very concerned. In terms of daily life, 33.90% said they had not been affected, 33.66% reported some impact, and 23.59% said the situation had significantly affected them, while 8.85% said they did not use oil in daily life.

The poll also highlighted potential disruption to Songkran travel plans. A majority of 57.56% said they had no travel plans, but 14.80% said they would cancel all travel if the fuel situation continues. Another 12.06% said they would proceed as planned, while 9.62% would still travel but adjust their mode of transport.

Bangkokpost reported that smaller groups indicated further changes, with 2.98% saying they would alter both transport and destination, and 2.75% planning to change destinations only. Just 0.23% did not respond. These findings reflect broader unease over energy security and its potential knock-on effects on tourism and economic activity during the holiday period.

Government Weighs Revival of 1973 Oil Emergency Law

The government is considering invoking emergency powers first introduced after the 1973 oil shock, as concerns grow over a potential prolonged disruption to global energy supplies from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Officials say the country still holds fuel reserves, but contingency planning has intensified. The move signals heightened caution despite assurances that no immediate shortage exists.

The legal framework under review is the Emergency Decree on the Correction and Prevention of Fuel Shortages, issued in 1973 during the global oil crisis triggered by the Arab oil embargo. That crisis saw crude prices surge from about US$3 to nearly US$12 per barrel, severely impacting Thailand’s economy due to its reliance on imported energy. A second crisis in 1979–80, linked to the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war, further exposed vulnerabilities and drove long-term policy shifts towards domestic energy sources such as natural gas.

Under the decree, the prime minister holds sweeping authority to regulate fuel production, sale, transport and consumption, as well as electricity usage. Measures could include fuel rationing, restrictions on business operating hours, limits on vehicle use, and controls on electricity consumption in buildings and advertising. Violations carry significant penalties, including fines and imprisonment, reflecting the law’s intent to enable rapid and centralised crisis response.

The issue has resurfaced following the issuance of Prime Ministerial Order No. 2/2569 on 6 March 2026 under the decree. Government discussions have also referenced the possibility of further emergency actions if the situation deteriorates. Authorities attribute recent localised fuel shortages to hoarding and distribution pressures rather than a nationwide supply deficit and have urged the public not to panic.

According to Thailand’s crisis planning framework, the most severe “red” scenario would involve oil supply disruptions lasting more than six months or liquefied petroleum gas shortages exceeding 14 days, alongside reserves nearing the legal minimum. In such a case, the Energy Ministry could propose rationing and conservation measures, potentially including limits on operating hours for petrol stations and department stores, as well as curfews to reduce consumption.

The Nation reported that while officials stress that current conditions do not warrant such drastic steps, the renewed focus on the 1973 decree highlights the seriousness with which policymakers are approaching the risk. Preparations suggest readiness for escalation, even as authorities maintain that existing reserves and supply arrangements remain sufficient for now.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 23 Mar 2026

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My Mrs still wants to head off to Nakhon Nowhere for Songkran. She doesn't seem concerned that she could end up somewhere mid-point with an empty tank!