Google Hits New High

[stevemiddie]

On advice received in 2004 i bought 10k, worth of Google shares at $84 a share ( 10k UK pounds )

I see now they have now hit the magic $700 mark.

I,m tempted to cash in but what would you advise? Sell or hold?

[LaoPo]

You did very well.

GOOG is still doing very well but they are with a P/E of around 55 now and thats -too- high and well above other Communication Services' industries.

In fact they are way above the others (exception only one comp. on page 1) see list-link below**

Suggest you to have a look at the 'discussion and Blog Posts' at the link here:

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG

**

http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=63995641

My suggestion ? Sell some, half or even everything above your initial investment; you can't lose anymore, but...........difficult times are ahead of us...

LaoPo

[churchill]

I remember when both Google and Gold were under $500 there was speculation to see which would reach $500 1st . Gold won and is still ahead and I think going higher long term - Perhaps switch some of your google profits into Gold ?

[Prakanong]

On advice received in 2004 i bought 10k, worth of Google shares at $84 a share ( 10k UK pounds )

I see now they have now hit the magic $700 mark.

I,m tempted to cash in but what would you advise? Sell or hold?

Good one - wish I had done the same

Cash in 30-50%?

Depends on your own situation but I would lock in some profits now.

Edited November 2, 2007 by Prakanong

[britmaveric]

Keep it, google will rise higher yet.

[stevemiddie]

Good advice. Thanks. I,m going to go with the sell 50% . Seems good and realistic.

Thanks again .

Edited November 2, 2007 by stevemiddie

[LaoPo]

Keep it, google will rise higher yet.

Why ?

I wonder why Sergey Brin sold so many shares at a much lower point; he is/was already wealthy enough...belonging to the 26* richest men on Earth ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html

"Do you believe i love you and today i try to be closer to you?" Quote by Sergey Brin

http://www.mysergeybrin.com/

Nevertheless: Chapeau for this guy(s)** !

* http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html

Note: I almost forgot to mention Larry Page**, the co-founder of Google:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page

LaoPo

Edited November 3, 2007 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Interesting to learn that Mr. ERIC E. SCHMIDT* sold many, many shares on October 26th 2007, (1 week ago !) as an insider...worth more than 3 BILLION $. He sold his shares at a median price of around $ 672/share.

As of 2006 he owned 4.19% of Google's stock, representing some 4.8 Billion $ at that particular moment, but at Google's market capitalization of a 'mere' 222 Billion, today, his stake would be worth 9.3 Billion $

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/12/OYW6.html

* Mr. Schmidt is: Chairman of the Executive Committee, Chief Executive Officer, Director of GOOGLE.

Officer Since: 07/2001

Age: 51

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsu...asp?Symbol=GOOG

I just wonder why Mr. Schmidt cashed such an enormous amount of shares, after working for Google for just over 6 years...

Maybe he wanted a new car ?...or maybe he knows something other shareholders don't....

LaoPo

Edited November 3, 2007 by LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

Keep it, google will rise higher yet.

Why ?

I wonder why Sergey Brin sold so many shares at a much lower point; he is/was already wealthy enough...belonging to the 26* richest men on Earth ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html

"Do you believe i love you and today i try to be closer to you?" Quote by Sergey Brin

http://www.mysergeybrin.com/

Nevertheless: Chapeau for this guy(s)** !

* http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html

Note: I almost forgot to mention Larry Page**, the co-founder of Google:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page

LaoPo

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

[lannarebirth]

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

I think the evidence is much stronger that insider buys are much more ndicative of future price strength, than insider sells being indicative of future price weakness. Many insiders sell every week of every month of every year. Why would they sell if it continues up, you may as? Well, they keep getting issued more.

[sonicdragon]

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

I think the evidence is much stronger that insider buys are much more ndicative of future price strength, than insider sells being indicative of future price weakness. Many insiders sell every week of every month of every year. Why would they sell if it continues up, you may as? Well, they keep getting issued more.

Do you have any evidence to supporrt that (ie some published research) ? You might be correct, but from what I have read there is no such evidence, but it's really not my area so I could be wrong. There are lots of problems with this kind of research - for one thing, the period you choose is critical - how do you decide ? Since stock markets will tend to rise in the long run there is a tendancy to believe that buys are better signals than sells - this must be adjusted for (ie anecdotal evidence often supports insider buy signals). Since insiders are already holders of stock (and most would not be permitted to be short) there is natural tendency for insiders to be sellers - this also needs to be adjusted. It's these adjustments that make research on this topic quite controversial.

[lannarebirth]

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

I think the evidence is much stronger that insider buys are much more ndicative of future price strength, than insider sells being indicative of future price weakness. Many insiders sell every week of every month of every year. Why would they sell if it continues up, you may as? Well, they keep getting issued more.

Do you have any evidence to supporrt that (ie some published research) ? You might be correct, but from what I have read there is no such evidence, but it's really not my area so I could be wrong. There are lots of problems with this kind of research - for one thing, the period you choose is critical - how do you decide ? Since stock markets will tend to rise in the long run there is a tendancy to believe that buys are better signals than sells - this must be adjusted for (ie anecdotal evidence often supports insider buy signals). Since insiders are already holders of stock (and most would not be permitted to be short) there is natural tendency for insiders to be sellers - this also needs to be adjusted. It's these adjustments that make research on this topic quite controversial.

Well, there are lots of studies I came across that say insider activity is indicative of future price movement. The problen is, you have no idea if the people conducting the study are sampling correctly or cherry picking or data mining. Outcomes can certainly be directed if the study is agenda driven.

[LaoPo]

Keep it, google will rise higher yet.

Why ?

I wonder why Sergey Brin sold so many shares at a much lower point; he is/was already wealthy enough...belonging to the 26* richest men on Earth ?

<a href="http://"http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html"" target="_blank"><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html" target="_blank">http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html</a></a>

"Do you believe i love you and today i try to be closer to you?" Quote by Sergey Brin

<a href="http://"http://www.mysergeybrin.com/"" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.mysergeybrin.com/" target="_blank">http://www.mysergeybrin.com/</a></a>

Nevertheless: Chapeau for this guy(s)** !

* <a href="http://"http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html"" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html" target="_blank">http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html</a></a>

Note: I almost forgot to mention Larry Page**, the co-founder of Google:

<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page</a>

LaoPo

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

I assure you that Mr. Brin has enough cash: -and this is just the buy/sell of shares in 2006- at a price range of between 350-450 $ (now over 700 $)

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html

The point is also that Mr. Schmidt -and a few other -INSIDERS- SOLD enormous amounts of shares in 2007...:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsu...amp;Symbol=GOOG

I agree with Lannarebirth that insider selling is NOT a good sign for any company and not for the stock markets in general.

My wife and I have studied some of the largest companies, worldwide, including in China, and all the the 'signs' are there that a lot of insiders are/have been SELLING their own shares and/or stock options.

If you have MORE THAN enough money, would you sell more and more of your Crown Jewels, still sitting on the Throne ?

Hold your breath.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

As far as GOOG is concerned, I'd consider buying some cheap OTM puts, maybe even LEAP puts, and then let it run. At some point it's gonna do an EBAY on you, but those points are always further out than I imagine. At this point I expect GOOG is running on the backs of incredulous shorts covering.

Edited November 3, 2007 by lannarebirth

[LaoPo]

And these are the sales, just 4 days ago, by Mr. Schmidt -CEO of GOOGLE-:

October 30 - 2007:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsu...asp?Symbol=GOOG

Roughly more than another 20 Million $'s.

He sold already more than 3 Billion $ in shares...

WHY ? Not short of cash I presume.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

As far as GOOG is concerned, I'd consider buying some cheap OTM puts, maybe even LEAP puts, and then let it run. At some point it's gonna do an EBAY on you, but those points are always further out than I imagine. At this point I expect GOOG is running on the backs of incredulous shorts covering.

Okay, belay my last. I didn't look at a chart. My 9 counter says it's got one more month tops to run before a retracement.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&...id=p77388302923

[LaoPo]

As far as GOOG is concerned, I'd consider buying some cheap OTM puts, maybe even LEAP puts, and then let it run. At some point it's gonna do an EBAY on you, but those points are always further out than I imagine. At this point I expect GOOG is running on the backs of incredulous shorts covering.

Okay, belay my last. I didn't look at a chart. My 9 counter says it's got one more month tops to run before a retracement.

<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p77388302923" target="_blank">http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&...id=p77388302923</a>

We'll see...what caught my eye with GOOG is that the numbers of stocks traded is declining since 2004 and 2005 when there were days that more than 100 million shares changed hands...of course the price was much lower as well but the difference is still high.

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

Keep it, google will rise higher yet.

Why ?

I wonder why Sergey Brin sold so many shares at a much lower point; he is/was already wealthy enough...belonging to the 26* richest men on Earth ?

<a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html" target="_blank"><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html" target="_blank">http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html</a></a>

"Do you believe i love you and today i try to be closer to you?" Quote by Sergey Brin

<a href="http://www.mysergeybrin.com/" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.mysergeybrin.com/" target="_blank">http://www.mysergeybrin.com/</a></a>

Nevertheless: Chapeau for this guy(s)** !

* <a href="http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html" target="_blank">http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/D664.html</a></a>

Note: I almost forgot to mention Larry Page**, the co-founder of Google:

<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page</a>

LaoPo

The thing is, when people like Mr Brin want to buy that U$10million new home, or whatever, they can't pay for it with google shares. Beiing a billionaire on paper is one thing but having ready cash in the bank is another. There is only marginal evidence, some of which is controversial, in the finance literature that shows insider trades are a good market signal.

I assure you that Mr. Brin has enough cash: -and this is just the buy/sell of shares in 2006- at a price range of between 350-450 $ (now over 700 $)

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/27/6414.html

The point is also that Mr. Schmidt -and a few other -INSIDERS- SOLD enormous amounts of shares in 2007...:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsu...amp;Symbol=GOOG

I agree with Lannarebirth that insider selling is NOT a good sign for any company and not for the stock markets in general.

My wife and I have studied some of the largest companies, worldwide, including in China, and all the the 'signs' are there that a lot of insiders are/have been SELLING their own shares and/or stock options.

If you have MORE THAN enough money, would you sell more and more of your Crown Jewels, still sitting on the Throne ?

Hold your breath.

LaoPo

Well, if you are assuring me then I will take it as the gospel truth and back down. I do apologise - you obviously must be a close personal friend of his, or perhaps one of his financial advisors ?

[bingobongo]

buy April 2008 puts, no support until 587 and going on pure momentum, overbought on RSI and MACD about to rollover

here is the technical..............

//

Edited November 4, 2007 by bingobongo

[flyer]

If you feel you can reinvest the money in something that will earn you close to what you have earned this far with GOOGLE, then sell and reinvest. IF not then keep and watch for a stop loss mark. If the share is going down 10% from the present position then sell anyway. You will have lost 10%, but still keep the bulk of the money for you and took a chance to get more if it had kept moving up. If it keeps moving up, keep adjusting your stop loss mark at 10% below whatever level the share reaches and sell any time it go down 10% from there.

[Gary A]

You'll never lose money by taking a profit. I remember when Yahoo was $199 and fell to under $15. A friend of mine was trying to explain to his wife why he had to keep working and what had happened to their retirement money.

[think_too_mut]

You'll never lose money by taking a profit. I remember when Yahoo was $199 and fell to under $15. A friend of mine was trying to explain to his wife why he had to keep working and what had happened to their retirement money.

Google is junk with nothing other than advertising which most of the people ignore and never click on.

It is going to test the limits of public tollerance if they try to cash the info they have amassed.

Drones from CNBC and Bloomberg cam pump it like they did a few years ago with "Amazon.com wull surpass 200$".

Same as what they are doing with another junk - VMWare.

I would sell now.

[teej]

buy April 2008 puts, no support until 587 and going on pure momentum, overbought on RSI and MACD about to rollover

here is the technical..............

//

I'd rather be selling options with the current high volatility (i.e. selling calls, either spot or front month (this month or next) because volatility is higher in the immediate time frame)

That said, if you're comfortable with the profit you've made, sell half, keep half and wait and see.

think_too_mut.... ah, forget it. you're negative on everything aren't you? must suck to see people making arseloads of cash while you just bitch and moan about how bad this and that are....

[britmaveric]

Google is cornering the market - next step mobile phones. More dosh to be made in google.....

[sonicdragon]

I don't own google. I made a little money from it while it was in the 500s. The business model looks good. The execution so far ooks good. But on a valuation basis it does look quite expensive. Diversification into mobile phones or whetever will tend to diversify the income base. With diversification (usually) comes slower growth. Even without diversification, at some point the top and bottom line growth has to slow down, which means the forward PE has to come down. Personally I don't even look at P/Es when making fundamental investment decisions - it's a faily meaniingless number, but in this industry there are few better metrics. CFO/EV is one of my favoured numbers, but a rapidly growing company in this industry even that is a little questionable, but last time I checked it looked pretty good for google but I can't remember what the stock price was then.

[jumbo2]

Google is junk with nothing other than advertising which most of the people ignore and never click on.

It is going to test the limits of public tollerance if they try to cash the info they have amassed.

Drones from CNBC and Bloomberg cam pump it like they did a few years ago with "Amazon.com wull surpass 200$".

Same as what they are doing with another junk - VMWare.

I would sell now.

Totally agree....its worth nothing...its a web page with some advertizing on other web pages..take your healthy profit invest in somthing real.

[stevemiddie]

Done. Sold 50 % today. I,m going to sit on the other half and see what happens with the mobile phones.

Thanks to everyone for the help and opinions.

[Maestro]

...I didn't look at a chart. My 9 counter says it's got one more month tops to run before a retracement.

9 counter? I am relatively new at charting and wonder what a 9 counter is.

(Almost sold my GOOG today)

--

Maestro

[lannarebirth]

...I didn't look at a chart. My 9 counter says it's got one more month tops to run before a retracement.

9 counter? I am relatively new at charting and wonder what a 9 counter is.

(Almost sold my GOOG today)

--

Maestro

It's a buying/selling exhaustion trading system that was developed by a Russian mathematics genius, friend of mine. It's got a lot of rules, which I won't bore you with.

[LaoPo]

Done. Sold 50 % today. I,m going to sit on the other half and see what happens with the mobile phones.

Thanks to everyone for the help and opinions.

You sold well above the $ 700 line. You did well. It's back -5.33% today and ended at $ 693.

LaoPo