Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[LaoPo]

..The dinner was in Washington..

I hope GWB cs still had some money left to pay for the dinner.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Dollar Rises After Group of Seven Raises Concern About Decline

By Bo Nielsen and Ye Xie

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose after Group of Seven officials expressed concern that swings in exchange rates will disrupt the global economy and financial markets.

The G-7 said in a statement released late on April 11 in Washington that policy makers are concerned about ``sharp fluctuations,'' the first significant change in its view of currencies since February 2004. The finance ministers and central bankers didn't mention the dollar or suggest any plans to intervene in foreign-exchange markets.

``There is an additional degree of urgency attached to the comments about fluctuation,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Yet, its one thing making bold statements but that's still a long way away from putting together a plan that may support the dollar.''

The dollar rose to $1.5679 per euro at 7.57 a.m. in Wellington, from $1.5808 late in New York on April 11, after dropping 0.6 percent last week. It strengthened to 101.51 yen from 100.95 yen. The yen traded at 159.18 per euro from 159.55. The U.S. currency reached a record low of $1.5913 per euro last week even as traders speculated that finance leaders would voice support for the dollar.

``Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability,'' the G-7 statement said. ``We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.''

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six of its main counterparts, has tumbled the past two months amid concern that credit-market losses will push the U.S. economy into a recession. The index is down 6.4 percent in 2008, after dropping 8.3 percent in each of the past two years.

The last time the G-7, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy and Canada, intervened in the currency market was on Sept. 22, 2000, when they bought the euro after it tumbled 27 percent from its 1999 debut. The G-7 last propped up the dollar in 1995, when it sank to a post-World War II low of 79.75 yen.

The G-7 downgraded its outlook for the world economy from that of two months ago, blaming the U.S. housing recession, credit-market turmoil, high commodity prices and inflation pressures.

Dollar Benefits

A weaker dollar has made U.S. goods and services more competitive in global markets. Exports increased 2 percent to a record $151.4 billion in February, the Commerce Department said last week in Washington.

``There a strong possibility that we'll soon test $1.60 again'' versus the euro, said Shankar of Bank of New York Mellon. ``Growth differentials are still stacked up against the dollar and since there's no sign whatsoever that the group is about to intervene, that clears the way for further dollar weakness.''

The euro failed to push through $1.60 as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at the press conference in Frankfurt on April 10 that financial-market tension may have ``a broader than currently expected impact on the real economy.'' Trichet spoke after the bank held the main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent.

The yen and Swiss franc rose against most of the major currencies last week as investors reduced carry trades, in which they borrow funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher.

Japan Rate

The Bank of Japan held its target lending rate at 0.5 percent on April 9, the lowest among industrialized countries. The new governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, said growth will keep slowing as rising oil prices weigh on the economy. The benchmark rates are 2.75 percent in Switzerland, 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.8 percent last week after General Electric Co. dropped the most since the 1987 crash on April 11. The company reported an unexpected decline in profit just a month after it assured investors 2008 earnings would be on target, fueling concerns the fallout from the disruptions in the credit markets is spreading.

Fed officials anticipated the economy would shrink in the first half of the year, with some concerned about ``a prolonged and severe economic downturn,'' minutes of the central bank's March 18 meeting showed. The central bank cut the target lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent at the meeting.

Traders increased bets the Fed will add to its six rate cuts since September, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Traders see a 46 percent chance the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point to 1.75 percent on April 30, compared with 36 percent odds a week ago. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter-percentage point.

---Bloomberg

LaoPo

[ray23]

Well so far I'm getting better exchange rates this month 31.61 and 31.62.

Dollar Rises Most Against Euro Since March on Fed, Jobs Report

By Ye Xie and Bo Nielsen

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose the most against the euro since March and reached a two-month high versus the yen as traders bet the Federal Reserve will stop cutting interest rates and the U.S. lost fewer jobs in April than economists forecast.

The currency appreciated versus the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona and the South Korean won this week after the Fed cut the target lending rate by a quarter-percentage point on April 30 and said ``substantial'' easing since September would help foster economic growth. The euro weakened as confidence among European executives and consumers fell in April.

``The tide is beginning to turn for the dollar on two fronts,'' said Jim McCormick, head of global currency strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``One is that the Fed is becoming less dollar-unfriendly. The other is a clear signal that economies outside the U.S. are starting to slow.''

The dollar increased 1.3 percent to $1.5424 per euro this week, from $1.5630 on April 25. It touched $1.5361 yesterday, the highest level since March 24. The dollar rose 0.9 percent to 105.40 yen, from 104.42 a week earlier. It touched 105.70 yen yesterday, the strongest since Feb. 28. The euro fell 0.5 percent this week to 162.53 yen, from 163.15.

Futures traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain against the euro, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain, known as net shorts, was 21,315 on April 29, compared with net longs of 18,907 a week earlier.

Dollar's Advance

The Fed cut the target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent this week, the seventh reduction since September. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday an 86 percent chance policy makers will keep borrowing costs unchanged when they next meet June 25, compared with 80 percent odds on May 1. The balance of bets is for a decrease of a quarter-percentage point.

The dollar has risen 3.6 percent from a record low of $1.6019 versus the euro reached on April 22. This was the second consecutive week it advanced versus the euro, the first time it posted back-to-back weekly gains since December.

The yen fell more than 1 percent against the Brazilian real, the South African rand and the Australian dollar this week as a rally in stocks encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded by loans made in Japan. The 0.5 percent target lending rate in Japan compares with 11.75 percent in Brazil, 11.5 percent in South Africa and 7.25 percent in Australia.

`Risk Appetite'

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.2 percent this week. The third straight weekly gain was the longest winning streak since October. The two-year Treasury note fell for a third week, pushing the yield to 2.54 percent yesterday, the highest level since January.

``Risk appetite is rising, and that's boosting demand for stocks and other high-yielding assets,'' said Carsten Fritsch, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG. ``The yen usually weakens in this environment.''

Brazil's real rose for a fifth straight week against the dollar, increasing 1 percent, after Standard & Poor's raised the country's credit rating to investment grade. The real touched 1.6434 per dollar yesterday, the strongest since 1999.

The European Central Bank will hold its main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent on May 8, all of the 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict. The Bank of England will keep its benchmark interest rate at 5 percent the same day, according to the median forecast of 61 economists in a separate Bloomberg News survey.

`Two Forces'

An index measuring sentiment among executives and consumers in the countries that use the euro fell to 97.1 in April, from 99.6 in March, the 11th consecutive drop, the European Commission said in Brussels on April 30. A separate report showed consumer inflation slowed last month.

``We got good U.S. news and bad European news,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``We have two forces moving hand in hand to help the dollar.''

The dollar gained 0.4 percent against the euro yesterday after the Labor Department reported that U.S. payrolls shrank by 20,000 last month following a revised decline of 81,000 in March. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop of 75,000.

``It's pretty likely we've seen the lows in the dollar,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``You've got a market that has been buying dollars, and certainly it got a nice reinforcement.''

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, touched 73.698 yesterday, the highest level since March 5. The index fell to 70.698 on March 17, the lowest since its 1973 inception.

``Buy the dollar,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The dollar will go to $1.52 in a straight line.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at [email protected]; Bo Nielsen in New York at [email protected].

Last Updated: May 3, 2008 08:00 EDT

[Ubon9]

As the Sun-zu says " after a war,famine will follow"America didn't touch the bottom yet.

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

[lannarebirth]

As the Sun-zu says " after a war,famine will follow"America didn't touch the bottom yet.

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

Hmmm, invoking Sun Tzu, well played. I shall counter your Sun Tzu reference with the ramblings of the Mighty Mahendra:

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlas...=379&Page=1

[stumonster]

what would happen to the USD if many of the countries that peg their currency to it stopped the practice and moved to something similar to the Singapore dollar ?

[lannarebirth]

Can someone with better forex data than me tell me if the $USD has broken out vs. the THB?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDTHB=X&a...&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDTHB=X&a...&q=l&c=

[Pib]

From reading so called "expert" opinions on a variety of news/financial services and assuming these so called experts know a little bit more than the average bear when it comes to currencies, it appears the dollar may gain on most currencies (including the baht)--at least over the near to medium term. Just maybe the the dollar has bottomed out.

[LaoPo]

From reading so called "expert" opinions on a variety of news/financial services and assuming these so called experts know a little bit more than the average bear when it comes to currencies, it appears the dollar may gain on most currencies (including the baht)--at least over the near to medium term. Just maybe the the dollar has bottomed out.

Let's hope so.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

He said it here already, November last year:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Where-s-Us-H...68#entry1635468

Avoid Dollar `At All Costs,' Investor Rogers Says

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said investors should steer clear of the dollar as the U.S. economy slows and favor commodities this year.

The dollar has slipped 7.6 percent against the euro and 5.1 percent versus the yen in 2008 as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. recession. Oil prices have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold is up 41 percent.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a speech in Shanghai today. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything, including seeds.''

Oil and metal prices in New York have surged as a slumping U.S. currency made them cheaper for non-dollar investors to buy as a hedge against inflation in a slowing global economy. The dollar has stabilized in recent weeks, with currency volatility falling by the most since 1999 this quarter.

The comments from Rogers, 65, come two days after he told investors at a conference in Nanjing not to ``give up'' on Chinese shares, which have made China the world's second worst performers this year. Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hadn't sold any of his holdings.

Commodity Bull

Investors failed to take heed today, as the benchmark CSI 300 Index extended an eight-month slump amid expectation government measures to slow inflation will hurt corporate profits. The gauge is down 53 percent from its Oct. 16 record and has dropped 23 percent in June. That would be the index's worst month since it was introduced in April 2005.

Rising food and fuel costs have helped to drive China's consumer prices to their highest in almost 12 years, prompting the central bank to lift interest rates six times last year and order banks to set aside a record amount in reserve to curb loan growth.

Speculation that the People's Bank of China would raise borrowing costs for the first time this year dragged the CSI 300 down by 5.5 percent on June 27.

Rogers, who now lives in Singapore, is best known for being a commodity bull since 1999, before the market started to rally in 2002. His Rogers International Commodity Index has more than quadrupled since it started in 1998.

The price of wheat, rice and soybeans reached records this year after adverse weather curbed global output and reduced stockpiles amid rising demand.

`Not High Enough'

Rogers is anticipating further gains in crude oil, which reached an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel on June 27.

``Crude oil prices are not high enough to stop people from consuming more energy,'' the investor said. ``The bull market will not go to an end until supply and demand come to a balance.''

His comments today echo the themes in his latest book ``A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market,'' in which he tells investors to get out of the dollar, teach their children Chinese and buy commodities.

Rogers said last October he planned to shift all his assets out of the dollar, which fell to a three-week low against the yen on June 27. He predicted last month that the U.S. currency's decline would pause in the second quarter because it was overdone.

---Bloomberg/Markets

LaoPo

[Tomkagai]

what would happen to the USD if many of the countries that peg their currency to it stopped the practice and moved to something similar to the Singapore dollar ?

...

USD would go into free fall, similar thing will happen when barrels of oil start to get priced in Euros....

[LaoPo]

Dollar May Fall for Second Day on Concern Over Fannie, Freddie

By Stanley White and Ye Xie

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall against the euro for a second day on speculation losses may deepen at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of financing for U.S. home loans.

The dollar may also extend declines against the yen after Fannie Mae sold $3 billion of debt yesterday at record yield spreads over benchmark rates. The yen may advance against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as declining stocks prompt investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with the Japanese currency. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testify before Congress today on financial market regulation.

``Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could be the catalyst for further dollar declines,'' said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of foreign exchange in Tokyo at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest brokerage. ``The U.S. financial sector isn't healthy. Things are likely to get worse, and that isn't fully reflected in the value of the dollar.''

The dollar traded at $1.5733 per euro at 8 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.5743 yesterday. The U.S. currency bought 106.86 yen from 106.76 yen. The yen was at 168.10 per euro from 168.06. The dollar may fall to $1.58 per euro and 106 yen today, Amikura forecast.

Against the Australian dollar, the yen traded at 102.03 from 102.16. It was quoted at 80.85 per New Zealand dollar from 80.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.3 percent yesterday.

In carry trades investors borrow in countries with low interest rates and invest in high-yielding assets elsewhere. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

Fannie Mae

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.6 percent to 72.580 yesterday.

Fannie Mae's 3.25 percent benchmark notes priced to yield 3.27 percent, or 74 basis points more than comparable U.S. Treasuries, the Washington-based company said yesterday in an e- mailed statement. That's the biggest spread since Fannie Mae first sold two-year benchmark notes in 2000.

The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since September, when the Federal Reserve made the first of seven reductions in its target lending rate, now 2 percent, to prevent the housing slump and credit market losses from plunging the U.S. economy into a recession.

Bernanke and Paulson are scheduled to testify before Congress at 10 a.m. today in Washington. The Fed may extend securities dealers' access to direct loans from the central bank into next year as long as emergency conditions continue, Bernanke said on July 8.

ECB, Inflation

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, yesterday that the level of inflation is ``worrying.'' He also said it's important for the U.S. to repeat support for a strong currency.

Traders yesterday increased bets the ECB will raise borrowing costs again to curtail 4 percent annual inflation, twice policy makers' 2 percent target. The implied rate on the December Euribor interest-rate futures contract rose 0.02 percentage point to 5.12 percent.

Trichet said last week that he has ``no bias'' for monetary policy after increasing the ECB's main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent.

The yield advantage of two-year German bunds over comparable-maturity Treasury notes rose to a one-week high of 1.97 percentage points yesterday, making the European securities more attractive to investors.

``The risk is that the ECB will raise interest rates again,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``That will keep the euro relatively supported.''

---Bloomberg

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

He said it here already, November last year:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Where-s-Us-H...68#entry1635468

Avoid Dollar `At All Costs,' Investor Rogers Says

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said investors should steer clear of the dollar as the U.S. economy slows and favor commodities this year.

The dollar has slipped 7.6 percent against the euro and 5.1 percent versus the yen in 2008 as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. recession. Oil prices have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold is up 41 percent.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a speech in Shanghai today. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything, including seeds.''

Oil and metal prices in New York have surged as a slumping U.S. currency made them cheaper for non-dollar investors to buy as a hedge against inflation in a slowing global economy. The dollar has stabilized in recent weeks, with currency volatility falling by the most since 1999 this quarter.

The comments from Rogers, 65, come two days after he told investors at a conference in Nanjing not to ``give up'' on Chinese shares, which have made China the world's second worst performers this year. Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hadn't sold any of his holdings.

Commodity Bull

Investors failed to take heed today, as the benchmark CSI 300 Index extended an eight-month slump amid expectation government measures to slow inflation will hurt corporate profits. The gauge is down 53 percent from its Oct. 16 record and has dropped 23 percent in June. That would be the index's worst month since it was introduced in April 2005.

Rising food and fuel costs have helped to drive China's consumer prices to their highest in almost 12 years, prompting the central bank to lift interest rates six times last year and order banks to set aside a record amount in reserve to curb loan growth.

Speculation that the People's Bank of China would raise borrowing costs for the first time this year dragged the CSI 300 down by 5.5 percent on June 27.

Rogers, who now lives in Singapore, is best known for being a commodity bull since 1999, before the market started to rally in 2002. His Rogers International Commodity Index has more than quadrupled since it started in 1998.

The price of wheat, rice and soybeans reached records this year after adverse weather curbed global output and reduced stockpiles amid rising demand.

`Not High Enough'

Rogers is anticipating further gains in crude oil, which reached an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel on June 27.

``Crude oil prices are not high enough to stop people from consuming more energy,'' the investor said. ``The bull market will not go to an end until supply and demand come to a balance.''

His comments today echo the themes in his latest book ``A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market,'' in which he tells investors to get out of the dollar, teach their children Chinese and buy commodities.

Rogers said last October he planned to shift all his assets out of the dollar, which fell to a three-week low against the yen on June 27. He predicted last month that the U.S. currency's decline would pause in the second quarter because it was overdone.

---Bloomberg/Markets

LaoPo

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

[Naam]

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

the dosh Rogers made in olden times together with Soros (Quantum) should keep him from the poor house

[LaoPo]

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on

I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

Strange words from a man who was looking for accommodation last year in Chiang Mai for Baht 2.000 per week...and/or Baht 300/day...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Reasonable-W...85#entry1088485

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on

I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

Strange words from a man who was looking for accommodation last year in Chiang Mai for Baht 2.000 per week...and/or Baht 300/day...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Reasonable-W...85#entry1088485

LaoPo

Lao, is this really the best you can do? I think it was Palm and livinlos that attemted to bring up this triviality on multiple occasions, (even at this juncture I gave you more credit than these guys) but I did have the decency to answer them just as I will answer you. My wife and I spent about 3 weeks at a wonderful little guest house near the Ping river, that was convienent to the night bazzar, the moat ,Dukes and many other landmarks. This guest house was clean and the staff was incredibly friendly, I would highly recomend it to anyone, and yes the price was about 350baht/day. My intention in our stay in Chiang Mai was to research the real estate market (for a vacation home), golf club memberships , the health of the economy and to sightsee. We certainly could have stayed at a 5 star resort hotel and had the word "sucker" tatooed on our forehead the day we checked in, but then we would never have met the people that befriended us or found out from the folks on the street level just what was happening in Chiang Mai and in Thailand. The education was invaluable and the accomodations were more than adequete, we both thoroughly enjoyed our time in Chiang Mai. I know people that have to stay at 5 star accomodations, and once there they feel the need to throw money around and act demanding and obnoxious(the ugly American syndrome-although you could substitute Brit,German,Aussie, korean Jappanese ect.), I have always felt that these folks not only lack in many social graces, but usually miss out on a multitude of opportunities to see the real countryside and meet some really great people. Other posts of mine at this same time show my interest in purchasing a vacation home and a golf club membership in Chiand Mai, but of course I have never known you to be an objective fellow so why would you repost those posts along with this one? I guess the slant you show in your financial posts follows through in everything you do here. I hope this act of desperation here in no way relects on your current economic status. I have never wished any ill will on you or your family nor would I, we simply see the world from different perspectives and have had some strong dissagreement as to where economies, markets and currencies are headed. I seem to have been spot on so far exept for gold coming down to the mid $600's (although this will occur soon) so perhaps you are a bit miffed at my astute predictions, in any event I hope you and your family are doing OK, Vic

[Naam]

stop bitching lads!

[philstone]

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on

I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

Strange words from a man who was looking for accommodation last year in Chiang Mai for Baht 2.000 per week...and/or Baht 300/day...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Reasonable-W...85#entry1088485

LaoPo

As tourism falls off in Thailand the dollars shall bring at 40 Baht in less than 8 months

Why do count Unites States down and out. You reminder me of the people who from Germany Japan and Russia who who thought was a paper tiger. As for China watch them careful you would not believe their own troubles.

Happen to say United States is a wonderful country that is why all the smart people from the whole world want to move their.

Take care and buy dollars sell the Euro and Pound and Yen short. you will be rich.

Please remember what country gowns the most food has the most oil and yes the most drug pattens and the most noble prize winners I guess it because the schools are the worst.

[palm]

Ahh yes another one of Lao's posts quoting that eternal pessimist Jim Rogers. Jimmy (the sky is falling) Rogers has been a bear for the past 30 years and has missed out on every single major run in the markets over that time frame. Rogers has been touting equities in mainland china for a couple of years now, and has lost 60% of their value in less than a year, now he is taking a bath on gold and all the other commodities that he was hyping just 6 weeks ago. Good ole Jimmy is getting a bit long in the tooth, I sure hope he has something left to retire on

I've been telling you to short oil, short gold and go long the dollar for many months now, if you choose to listen to Jim Rogers then I hope that you keep enough funds dry so you can at least afford a taxi to take you to the poor house

Strange words from a man who was looking for accommodation last year in Chiang Mai for Baht 2.000 per week...and/or Baht 300/day...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Reasonable-W...85#entry1088485

LaoPo

Lao, is this really the best you can do? I think it was Palm and livinlos that attemted to bring up this triviality on multiple occasions, (even at this juncture I gave you more credit than these guys) but I did have the decency to answer them just as I will answer you. My wife and I spent about 3 weeks at a wonderful little guest house near the Ping river, that was convienent to the night bazzar, the moat ,Dukes and many other landmarks. This guest house was clean and the staff was incredibly friendly, I would highly recomend it to anyone, and yes the price was about 350baht/day. My intention in our stay in Chiang Mai was to research the real estate market (for a vacation home), golf club memberships , the health of the economy and to sightsee. We certainly could have stayed at a 5 star resort hotel and had the word "sucker" tatooed on our forehead the day we checked in, but then we would never have met the people that befriended us or found out from the folks on the street level just what was happening in Chiang Mai and in Thailand. The education was invaluable and the accomodations were more than adequete, we both thoroughly enjoyed our time in Chiang Mai. I know people that have to stay at 5 star accomodations, and once there they feel the need to throw money around and act demanding and obnoxious(the ugly American syndrome-although you could substitute Brit,German,Aussie, korean Jappanese ect.), I have always felt that these folks not only lack in many social graces, but usually miss out on a multitude of opportunities to see the real countryside and meet some really great people. Other posts of mine at this same time show my interest in purchasing a vacation home and a golf club membership in Chiand Mai, but of course I have never known you to be an objective fellow so why would you repost those posts along with this one? I guess the slant you show in your financial posts follows through in everything you do here. I hope this act of desperation here in no way relects on your current economic status. I have never wished any ill will on you or your family nor would I, we simply see the world from different perspectives and have had some strong dissagreement as to where economies, markets and currencies are headed. I seem to have been spot on so far exept for gold coming down to the mid $600's (although this will occur soon) so perhaps you are a bit miffed at my astute predictions, in any event I hope you and your family are doing OK, Vic

lol, so you stayed in 350 baht a night hostels so you could find out what was going on at 'street-level', and anyone staying in a 5-star hotel is demanding, obnoxious, a sucker, and lacks social graces?

[Naam]

For the man who predicted that Mike Huckabee would be the next President of the USA, you're not that good Vic, not all all, because he will NOT be the next president

LaoPo

why not? did Huckabee perhaps cheat on his wife?

[Gary A]

I think I can almost guarantee that the dollar is going to gain BIG time against the baht. I just made a wire transfer for $26,500 and my timing is ALWAYS wrong. Look for the baht to weaken substantially very soon.

[philstone]

y astute predictions, in any event I hope you and your family are doing OK, Vic

Now we know where you save all that money from, when you're buying stocks, gold and all that (bottom priced) real estate back home in the desert

I have to admit though: spending some Baht 7.000 (US$ 200) for two people, for 3 weeks stay in a hostel in Chiang Mai is quite an accomplishment for a self-proclaimed high roller investor and predictor.

It makes all of us here on TV look like dummies in kinder garden.

If you're so good in predicting Vic, like the 50% fall on the Shanghai market, why didn't you predict 1 year ago that giants* in your own country would drop so bad and so deep also ?

Why didn't you predict the sub prime crisis, created by those wonderful geniuses in your financial centers ?

* to name a few:

Citigroup -57%

Fannie Mae -84%

Freddie Mac -89%

General Motors -68%; all from 1 year ago.

If you need more, just let me know.

For the man who predicted that Mike Huckabee would be the next President of the USA, you're not that good Vic, not all all, because he will NOT be the next president

Europe is being taken over by Russia right now. American shall not come to there aid. China will take over South Asia and South East Asia. While America takes over the Mid East.

Europe as well as the rest of the world shall just stand in the corner and cry like little babies.

100 baht to the dollars within 1 year. The pound shall be equal to one dollar and one dollar will get you 2 euros

[britmaveric]

[LaoPo]

Europe is being taken over by Russia right now. American shall not come to there aid. China will take over South Asia and South East Asia. While America takes over the Mid East.

Europe as well as the rest of the world shall just stand in the corner and cry like little babies.

100 baht to the dollars within 1 year. The pound shall be equal to one dollar and one dollar will get you 2 euros

Can you supply us with some time frames ?

That would be handy so that I can take the necessary steps.

Maybe everything is in Nostradamus' book ?

LaoPo

[cloudhopper]

Dollar Gain Signals Pain as Rally Prompts Exit From Bull Trade

By Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Just because the dollar posted its biggest gain against the Euro in almost eight years doesn't mean the U.S. currency won't continue to be plagued by the nation's slowing economy, widening budget and trade deficits and negative inflation-adjusted interest rates.

The 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit-market losses keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.

Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained.

That's mostly because there's no indication the U.S. will return to the late 1990s annualized gross domestic product growth of 4.23 percent with inflation running at no more than 3.3 percent. Since September, 2000, the dollar has declined more than 44 percent as inflation accelerated to an annual 5 percent today, growth slowed to 1.9 percent and U.S. interest rates provide no cushion for holding U.S. assets.

``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said Sophia Drossos, a strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, who also recommended closing out bets on the dollar versus the currencies of Malaysia and Singapore. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.''

Unsustainable Recovery

The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from $1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8, touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 6, 2000, and the second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.

Those gains sent the dollar above the $1.51 per euro yearend mean target of 39 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. By the end of 2009, the dollar will likely strengthen to $1.40 per euro, based on the estimates. It gained 6.4 percent since hitting a record low of $1.6038 on July 15.

In addition to the gains against the euro, the dollar also appreciated 2.3 percent versus the yen to 110.18, the most in eight weeks. The euro lost 1.29 percent against the Japanese currency to 165.38, the biggest drop in 13 weeks.

U.S. economic data suggest that a sustained recovery isn't imminent, said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York. Interest-rate swaps indicate the currency should trade at about $1.54 per euro, said Sinche, who still forecasts that the dollar will strengthen to $1.45 per euro by the second half of next year.

Foreclosures, Deficits

The number of U.S. home foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data. Government reports this week may show retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, the first decrease since February, and the U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $62 billion from $59.8 billion.

The U.S. budget deficit, which totaled $163 billion for 2007, is forecast by the administration of President George W. Bush to widen to a record $482 billion for 2009.

Morgan Stanley predicts the dollar will weaken to $1.60 by October, because the faltering U.S. economy means the Fed is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, Drossos said. That means investors will continue to suffer inflation-adjusted returns that are negative based on the current annual consumer price index of 5 percent and Treasury securities yielding between 1.695 percent for three-month bills and 4.53 percent for 30-year bonds.

`Particularly Weak'

Rather then a vote of confidence in the outlook for the U.S. economy, the euro's tumble on Aug. 8 was triggered by traders paring bets the European Central Bank will lift borrowing costs after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. Trichet spoke after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent.

Gross domestic product growth in the euro region is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2009, from 2.68 percent in 2007, according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.

``The outlook is looking certainly brighter for the dollar,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy in New York at Wells Fargo & Co. ``The most significant factor is that there are now much clearer signs that U.S. economic weakness has spread to global economic weakness.''

`Overshoot Territory'

Wells Fargo forecasts the dollar strengthening to 1.48 per euro by the end of next year.

David Woo, head of currency strategy in London at Barclays, disagrees. ``The euro-dollar market is in an overshoot territory,'' he said. Barclays, the world's third largest currency trader, according to an annual survey by Euromoney magazine, expects the dollar to weaken to $1.57 per euro by year-end.

Dollar bears point to the Fed's decision on Aug. 5 to leave its target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent for a second straight policy meeting. Policy makers said ``downside risks'' to growth remain, while inflation is a ``significant concern.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 40 percent chance the Fed will raise its target rate at least a quarter- percentage point by year-end and a 90 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by the end of March.

`Balance of Risks'

``We still see the balance of risks to the upside for euro- dollar given considerable headwinds facing the dollar and unrealistic pricing for Fed hikes,'' strategists led by Ray Farris at Credit Suisse Group in London wrote in a research note at the end of last week. The dollar may decline to $1.61 per euro by the end of next month and to $1.64 by year-end, they said, the most bearish forecast in the Bloomberg survey.

Traders who look at charts of price patterns say technical indicators suggest the dollar's rally may have been exaggerated.

Losses accelerated Aug. 8 when the euro dropped below $1.53 and broke the 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2006. Currencies typically revert toward their mean price after breaking through averages unless new ranges are established.

Trading envelopes, which measure how far from the mean a price has strayed, show the euro's decline is double the typical changes versus the dollar in the past 20 days, suggesting that the dollar is either establishing a new level or will trade closer to the average price.

`Bit Too Fast'

The 14-day relative strength index fell to 22.31, the lowest since the euro's debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent.

``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at [email protected]; Anchalee Worrachate in London at [email protected].

Last Updated: August 10, 2008 15:32 EDT

[Naam]

Europe is being taken over by Russia right now. American shall not come to there aid. China will take over South Asia and South East Asia. While America takes over the Mid East.

Europe as well as the rest of the world shall just stand in the corner and cry like little babies.

100 baht to the dollars within 1 year. The pound shall be equal to one dollar and one dollar will get you 2 euros

and the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all. the farang expats who were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing when changing Pounds, €uros, Baht and gold bars into Dollars as baht bus drivers, immigration, working girls and theme parks in Thailand shall accept only one currency of value...

[Naam]

``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''

another trading day like friday and we will see 1.48 in the afternoon today

[lannarebirth]

``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''

another trading day like friday and we will see 1.48 in the afternoon today

Another trading day like Friday is not expected and will signal the $ rally has legs. Currently at major resistance .

closeup:

[PeaceBlondie]

Maybe vegas vic was imitating the earlier days of Jimmy Rogers, who used to arrive at a land border of a foreign country, riding a motorcycle. By the time he had stayed at local hostels, raised a few ales with the locals, and seen how primitive things were in the rural areas, he could laugh at the officials in the capital city who lied about how advanced the country was. Such are the legends of billionaires, anyway. Maybe vegas vic stayed overnight in a hut in the hills and learned Lisu hand-weaving.

[lordofdelusion]

From the CNBC website in part.

Markets are presently undergoing a major reconfiguration as investors continue to adjust to signs that the European economy has hit the wall, squeezed by a combination of surging energy prices and tight monetary conditions, overlaid with a credit crunch for good measure," said Darren Gibbs, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank.

That had led the market to price in rate cuts for the euro zone, and policy easing in Japan, Australia and New Zealand for good measure.

"Predictions of a recovery in the dollar are now looking good," added Gibbs, noting the dollar index looked to have broken out of a seven-year downtrend.

The dollar index which measures it against a basket of currencies was up at five-month highs of 76.047, having climbed from 73.42 in just a week.

Hope so!!

Hey, maybe currency trading is linked to the olympic medal count.