UN: New Cyclone Forming Near Burma

[george]

UN: New cyclone forming near Burma

The United Nations has said another cyclone is forming near Burma, less than two weeks after it was devastated by a killer storm.

Amanda Pitt, spokeswoman for the UN humanitarian relief programme, could not say where the landfall would be or when it would become a fully-fledged cyclone.

She told reporters another cyclone was likely, saying: "This is terrible." She said the information about the possible cyclone came from the Joint Typhoon Warning centre, which is part of the UN's World Meteorological Centre.

It said "the circulation centre (of the storm) is currently transiting generally northwestward across the Yangon delta region of (Burma)", which refers to the Irrawaddy delta.

Ms Pitt said if the cyclone warnings came true, the inadequate relief efforts for survivors of Nargis would be jeopardised.

"This is always a worry when you have further hazards affecting people," she said, adding that it "impacts people's ability to survive and cope with what happened to them". "They are already weak. This is a great problem and impacts on how we can help people," she said.

The news of a possible second cyclone came hours after the first international aid official allowed into the cyclone-devastated Irrawaddy delta by Burma's military leaders described towns rendered unrecognisable, survivors exposed to pouring rain and local "humanitarian" heroes saving lives.

Soldiers have barred foreign aid workers from reaching cyclone survivors in the areas hardest hit by Cyclone Nargis, but gave access to an International Red Cross representative who returned to Rangoon on Tuesday.

"People who have come here having lost their homes in rural areas have volunteered to work as first aiders. They are humanitarian heroes," said Bridget Gardner, the agency's country head.

State television said the death toll from Cyclone Nargis stood at 34,273, with 27,838 missing. The United Nations says the actual death toll could be between 62,000 and 100,000.

-- The Press Association 2008-05-14

[george]

Nothing mentioned here yet (they use to be alert):

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/I.html

[Galong]

I'm guessing that this might have something to do with the nasty weather we're having right now??

God, I hope Myanmar doesn't get hit again!

[Jai Dee]

The current infrared satellite image of the Indian ocean:

[donna]

whatever newworks. lets not get into nitpicking about the name of the country.

[Jai Dee]

Chances 'good' for another cyclone to hit devastated Myanmar

Chances are "good" that a storm in the Indian Ocean could be upgraded to a cyclone as it heads toward landfall in Myanmar, which is already reeling from Cyclone Nargis, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said Wednesday. "The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good," the centre said late Tuesday in a forecast issued from its headquarters in Hawaii.

The storm was situated about 30 nautical miles (56 kilometres) south-west of Yangon at the time the alert was issued.

Yangon and the southern part of Myanmar's Irrawaddy Delta suffered the brunt of Cyclone Nargis, which hit the coastline packing 200 kilometre-per-hour winds May 2-3.

The United Nations estimated that Nargis killed about 100,000 people and has left 1.9 million people in need of food, water, shelter and medicines.

Hundreds of thousands of people living in the Irrawaddy Delta and the outskirts of Yangon have gone without relief supplies for the past 12 days because of a combination of poor infrastructure impeding deliveries and a reluctance by Myanmar's ruling junta to facilitate the rapid distribution of aid and allow an influx of professional relief workers who could speed up the process.

Now, many of Nargis' victims - thousands of them without basic shelter - are in for more rains, if not another cyclone.

"I understand that there are terrible rains on the way and the possibility of a cyclone," confirmed Amanda Pitt, a spokeswoman for the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which is heading the emergency relief effort in Myanmar out of Bangkok.

Source: DPA - 14 May 2008

[Losangels]

Let's hope it turns out to be a rain storm instead of another cyclone and hope it doesn't decide to head down south toward us

[nikster]

whatever newworks. lets not get into nitpicking about the name of the country.

I don't think it's nit-picking. Myanmar is the name chosen by the junta, so calling Burma Myanmar is supporting the junta. It would be nice if there was a third, neutral option when you want to talk about the country without saying anything about politics, as we'd like to do here. Because junta or not, we must help the people of Burma. However, there is no such choice so we'll have to stick with Burma.

As we all know humanitarian aid organizations are having a very hard time getting access to the country. However there are already organizations inside that can help, such as this one - please help if you can. These have ties to the Spirit Rock foundation in the SF bay area and it's the best way I know of to get help into the country: http://www.foundationburma.org/

[moo9]

The storm was situated about 30 nautical miles (56 kilometres) south-west of Yangon at the time the alert was issued.

On the satellite image there is a low pressure system close to Burma's coast. But being only 56 km's away from the coast line, this IMHO will not develop into a cyclone!?!

However it looks big enough to bring much more rain to the already damaged areas. Poor people

PS: Here is the official bulletin:

abio10 pgtw 132100 cor

msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//

subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean

/reissued corrected/132100z-141800zmay2008//

ref/a/msg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/132021zmay2008//

ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//

Rmks/

1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):

a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

B. Tropical disturbance summary:

(1) the area of convection previously located near 16.6n

96.0e, is now located near 16.8n 95.7e, approximately 30 nm west-

southwest of yangon, Myanmar. Recent animated infrared satellite

imagery and a 121210z SSMI microwave image indicate pronounced low-

level cyclonic turning of convection at the western end of the

monsoon trough. However, more recently, convection has waned

somewhat in response to land interaction. The circulation center is

currently transiting generally northwestward across the yangon Delta

Region of Myanmar. Observations from yangon as of 131300z, support a

25 to 30 knot circulation with sea level pressures near 1000 mb (3

mb pressure falls over the past 24 hours) and sustained winds at 10

knots gusting to 20 knots out of the northeast. A partial 130301z

ascat image also indicates strong westerlies to the south of the

center with sustained easterlies to the north, further proof of

cyclonic turning. The center currently lies under low vertical wind

shear just south of the subtropical ridge axis with favorable

southwesterly diffluence aloft. Though the disturbance is currently

over land, minimal degradation of the low level is expected due to

the low lying topography and fairly quick transit over the coastal

region of southern Myanmar. Emergence into the Bay of Bengal is

expected within the next 12 to 18 hours. Maximum sustained surface

winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure

is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development

of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is

upgraded to good with the only limitation being temporary land

interaction. See ref a (wtio21 pgtw 132030) for further details.

Not being a Cyclone or Weather Specialist, I believe to understand that this system would first move away from the coast, then head another direction? Maybe some expert can enlighten me

Edited May 14, 2008 by moo9

[Galong]

whatever newworks. lets not get into nitpicking about the name of the country.

I don't think it's nit-picking. Myanmar is the name chosen by the junta, so calling Burma Myanmar is supporting the junta. It would be nice if there was a third, neutral option when you want to talk about the country without saying anything about politics, as we'd like to do here. Because junta or not, we must help the people of Burma. However, there is no such choice so we'll have to stick with Burma.

As we all know humanitarian aid organizations are having a very hard time getting access to the country. However there are already organizations inside that can help, such as this one - please help if you can. These have ties to the Spirit Rock foundation in the SF bay area and it's the best way I know of to get help into the country: http://www.foundationburma.org/

Well, it is a bit nit-picky as the name Myanmar goes back to the 13th century. "Burma" was the name given by the Brits. It was the name of one ethnic group if I'm not mistaken. It's sorta like calling all foreigners Farangs just because the French were prevalent in Thailand early on.

I certainly don't support anything that the Junta is doing whatsoever. They seem to be as oppressive as any nasty government in recorded history! I am all for doing whatever it takes to help the people of whatever you call the country.

So, whatever guys... let's just agree that we want to help these folks any way we can. We're all on the same page here.

[TAWP]

Those numbers of people killed (and larger number the UN is fearing) is larger than one feared. It's reaching Tsunami levels.

And the sickest part is that much more people might die if not help reaches those that needs it, with 1.5 million people displaced.

[cloudhopper]

The storm was situated about 30 nautical miles (56 kilometres) south-west of Yangon at the time the alert was issued.

On the satellite image there is a low pressure system close to Burma's coast. But being only 56 km's away from the coast line, this IMHO will not develop into a cyclone!?!

However it looks big enough to bring much more rain to the already damaged areas. Poor people

Not being a Cyclone or Weather Specialist, I believe to understand that this system would first move away from the coast, then head another direction? Maybe some expert can enlighten me

I'm no expert but agree completely...

[lopburi3]

Move out, reform, re hit is also a possibility. In any event it seems heavy rains are going to be lasting some time (which on a more positive note provides drinking water).

[Scott]

My thoughts are with these poor people.

[george]

Weather experts affirm there is no second cyclone

BANGKOK: -- Meteorological experts have assured the public that a new storm gathering speed in the Indian Ocean south of Rangoon will not intensify into a cyclone as feared.

Supareuk Tantreerattanawong, director general of the meteorological department, said this weather system will not have any major impact on Thailand but will result in more rain.

Sea conditions around the Gulf of Thailand are expected to be very rough with two-metre waves beginning on Friday and through the weekend.

He said the low pressure system around the South China Sea will intensify in force to become a depression between May 15-16 but will not be noticed in Thailand.

-- Bangkok Post 2008-05-15