Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Sorry BB,

I have no idea. Could go to 38-40 like it did in the 1990's (especially if Brown borrows even more could go even lower), could go back to 70 if the Dollar suddenly crashes, more likely to sit between 50 and 55 for now.

This is what I do.

I transfer the minimum funds I need to survive/get roof fixed. I leave the rest in the UK in an active savings account. I have telephone banking and on-line banking with a special security system the bank provide. I also have a Forex account with a good broker.

I watch for volatile spikes in THB. It's a tremendously volatile currency and can readily spike over short periods of time. The trick is to read it as a spike and not do what I did last time, be complacent and think the 'spike' was a long term recovery of the Pound, i.e., beginning of August this year, went to 67 only to drop back very quickly.

Have a system. Put it in place. Watch the Baht on a daily basis (I have a little currency converter on my desktop). Be sensible about what the UK's prospects are (not good) and don't be greedy. Reckon if it spikes to 63 again we'll be lucky.

I know. It's a nightmare. After all the hard work in the UK and not buying their ridiculously overpriced housing, only to be shafted by this is . . . well it's New Labour isn't it. Add to that if I have no work (because of illness at mo) I have no recourse to the welfare state (higher rate taxpayer, self-employed, IR35). It's all <deleted>.

[cocopops]

Dollars. What else?

The idea that cash dollars are losing value in your bank account right now is subjective at best. It might, in some cases, be losing value against the loaf of bread you buy at the 7 or the new car you are after, but it is gaining value against all other asset classes. Housing in nearly every country, stocks on every exchange, all commodity funds, the list goes on...

The goldbugs tell a good story, and we shouldn't count them out yet. I keep a little physical gold myself, but not much. Every time an asset crashes, loans are called in, margin calls are made, and the number of dollars in the world shrinks. Less dollars, same amount of gold.

Folks sitting around mumbling crap they don't understand about "worthless dollars" or "printing presses", are in more trouble than they know.

Look, there's nothing - I repeat, NOTHING - backing the US Dollar but the promise of the US government to pay and that's it. Yes, I realise that's the basis for every fiat currency but, as we've seen with sterling, the economic outlook there has been a sudden decline in investors' trust in that promise. I would venture that, had the BoE emulated the Fed and started easing rates, bailing out banks and sending out tax rebates to everyone long ago, the UK economy wouldn't have contracted as much as it did in Q3.

The usual position is that fiat currencies are backed by taxation. 300,000,000 of the worlds wealthiest people are obliged to pay their taxes in USD. Not gold, not yen, USD. This is what creates the initial demand for fiat currencies, it is why they are able to exist without the backing of any "real" assets.

The US dollar is still the world's reserve currency, yes, but it is also the world's largest debtor nation. The world's creditor nations know their largest export market is on its knees and are asking why they should continue to hold US debt when its value is being systematically eroded by a government that's issuing huge amounts of additional debt to bailout its broken banks and, soon enough, its auto industry. The "strength" of the dollar is based on repatriation of funds to the US by investors liquidating assets abroad and parking the money in the perceived safety of Treasuries but with the woeful yields on short term bonds, how long do you really think that money will remain there earning a negative return ?

Well, for starters, it is not a negative return. It's a very small return, but when all other assets are falling in value, that's not so bad. Secondly, the reason the yield is at a historic low is that there is a huge demand for T-bills. When better to issue a bunch more?

Percieved safety? Exactly what do you see as safer? "strength"? Exactly what is stronger?

Being the worlds largest debtor nation isn't that big a deal so long as your net worth is increasing faster than your debt. It's all relative. Look at it another way, people are falling over themselves to invest in the US. Does that sound problematic to you?

The US government will eventually end up guaranteeing the liabilities of ALL banks, insurers and corporate entities that are deemed too big or too interconnected to fail . . . and that group is growing by the week ! Very, VERY soon, the hoarding of dollars will end and volatility in equity markets will subside. When that happens, investors will exit Treasuries in a very disorderly fashion ! Bye bye dollar.

Ok, so you see soaring stock markets just around the corner undermining Treasuries and cash? Despite what you said about the state of the banks and auto manufacturers a paragraph or so ago? I suppose we will have to disagree here.

The demise of the only viable world currency was, and continues to be, greatly exaggerated.

[HardenedSoul]

In April 2007, when I told my ex-colleagues I was going to sell my modest 3 bed flat in West London because I thought the property market was going to tank, they laughed me out of the office. "Don't be an idiot. Demand outstrips supply - especially in your neck of the woods", they trilled. The media, the banks and the government successfully brainwashed 95% of the people into believing that the good times would roll on indefinitely.

The exact same disbelief is manifesting itself now but this time, it's aimed at the unravelling of fiat currency. "Gold has no intrinsic value", the doubters cry. Like i said before, western perceptions of gold are largely irrelevant because the nations with the real wealth are buying it like mad. I don't know how it'll all pan out but if - and this is a real possibility - a gold standard is re-established then I think its value will, indeed, skyrocket. Either that or the incumbent reserve currency must be devalued . . .

If you choose to believe the idiots on CNBC/Bloomberg trying to convince you to buy equities based on p/e ratios where the earnings are set to plummet, or the Fed, the BoE or, worse still, the politicians, then that's entirely your choice. I prefer not to and have my choice vindicated everytime I visit Rightmove.co.uk, input my old W10 postcode and see flats on my old street being offered for sale at 30% less than what I sold up for.

Sorry, but that's it in a nutshell !

[bravingbangkok]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Sorry BB,

I have no idea. Could go to 38-40 like it did in the 1990's (especially if Brown borrows even more could go even lower), could go back to 70 if the Dollar suddenly crashes, more likely to sit between 50 and 55 for now.

This is what I do.

I transfer the minimum funds I need to survive/get roof fixed. I leave the rest in the UK in an active savings account. I have telephone banking and on-line banking with a special security system the bank provide. I also have a Forex account with a good broker.

I watch for volatile spikes in THB. It's a tremendously volatile currency and can readily spike over short periods of time. The trick is to read it as a spike and not do what I did last time, be complacent and think the 'spike' was a long term recovery of the Pound, i.e., beginning of August this year, went to 67 only to drop back very quickly.

Have a system. Put it in place. Watch the Baht on a daily basis (I have a little currency converter on my desktop). Be sensible about what the UK's prospects are (not good) and don't be greedy. Reckon if it spikes to 63 again we'll be lucky.

I know. It's a nightmare. After all the hard work in the UK and not buying their ridiculously overpriced housing, only to be shafted by this is . . . well it's New Labour isn't it. Add to that if I have no work (because of illness at mo) I have no recourse to the welfare state (higher rate taxpayer, self-employed, IR35). It's all <deleted>.

In the many years I have been here I have never really thought about it like that, yes I will take the good advice and put a system in place. I mostly deal in US$ so it is not so bad but I keep most of my savings in a high interest HSBC savings account. I was about to transfer over some dosh when it went back to 56 but as with the gold a couple of weeks ago I was being too greedy slap round the back of the head for me I think !

Thanks for the advice it was greatly needed.

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Sorry BB,

I have no idea. Could go to 38-40 like it did in the 1990's (especially if Brown borrows even more could go even lower), could go back to 70 if the Dollar suddenly crashes, more likely to sit between 50 and 55 for now.

This is what I do.

I transfer the minimum funds I need to survive/get roof fixed. I leave the rest in the UK in an active savings account. I have telephone banking and on-line banking with a special security system the bank provide. I also have a Forex account with a good broker.

I watch for volatile spikes in THB. It's a tremendously volatile currency and can readily spike over short periods of time. The trick is to read it as a spike and not do what I did last time, be complacent and think the 'spike' was a long term recovery of the Pound, i.e., beginning of August this year, went to 67 only to drop back very quickly.

Have a system. Put it in place. Watch the Baht on a daily basis (I have a little currency converter on my desktop). Be sensible about what the UK's prospects are (not good) and don't be greedy. Reckon if it spikes to 63 again we'll be lucky.

I know. It's a nightmare. After all the hard work in the UK and not buying their ridiculously overpriced housing, only to be shafted by this is . . . well it's New Labour isn't it. Add to that if I have no work (because of illness at mo) I have no recourse to the welfare state (higher rate taxpayer, self-employed, IR35). It's all <deleted>.

In the many years I have been here I have never really thought about it like that, yes I will take the good advice and put a system in place. I mostly deal in US$ so it is not so bad but I keep most of my savings in a high interest HSBC savings account. I was about to transfer over some dosh when it went back to 56 but as with the gold a couple of weeks ago I was being too greedy slap round the back of the head for me I think !

Thanks for the advice it was greatly needed.

No problem, BB.

Only other thing I'll say is cut out all discretionary spending. The old woman's in for a big shock!

[HardenedSoul]

The usual position is that fiat currencies are backed by taxation. 300,000,000 of the worlds wealthiest people are obliged to pay their taxes in USD. Not gold, not yen, USD. This is what creates the initial demand for fiat currencies, it is why they are able to exist without the backing of any "real" assets.

erm . . . so what if they pay their taxes in USD ? The government spends far more than it collects in taxes. It's why they have trillions of dollars in deficits.

Well, for starters, it is not a negative return. It's a very small return, but when all other assets are falling in value, that's not so bad. Secondly, the reason the yield is at a historic low is that there is a huge demand for T-bills. When better to issue a bunch more?

It is when compared to the rate of inflation. The US is running negative real interest rates and you know it. As I said, the is demand for short-term T-Bills is purely based on the need for a temporary parking place for cash. I posted a link to a story which explains how investors turned their noses up at $10 billion in 30yr bonds because they expect the government to be issuing an awful lot more to pay for all the bailouts. The whole idea behind these guarantees and bailouts is to get credit markets moving and money flowing. The depressed stock values are the result of forced-selling. I don't expect stock markets to soar at all but I do expect them to re-price themselves at levels that reflect their true value. Once this happens - and it will - who'd want to be in treasuries ? Now's the time to sell them . . . before the Chinese do

Percieved safety? Exactly what do you see as safer? "strength"? Exactly what is stronger?

Gold

Being the worlds largest debtor nation isn't that big a deal so long as your net worth is increasing faster than your debt. It's all relative. Look at it another way, people are falling over themselves to invest in the US. Does that sound problematic to you?

Net worth increasing faster than your debt ???? Oh please, behave

Ok, so you see soaring stock markets just around the corner undermining Treasuries and cash? Despite what you said about the state of the banks and auto manufacturers a paragraph or so ago? I suppose we will have to disagree here.

So only banks and automakers make up the Dow and the S&P, yes ??

The demise of the only viable world currency was, and continues to be, greatly exaggerated.

Many oil producers are understandably disenchanted with the dollar. Far-fetched as it may seem now, they may decide to change the currency in which their oil is sold.

[cocopops]

The usual position is that fiat currencies are backed by taxation. 300,000,000 of the worlds wealthiest people are obliged to pay their taxes in USD. Not gold, not yen, USD. This is what creates the initial demand for fiat currencies, it is why they are able to exist without the backing of any "real" assets.

erm . . . so what if they pay their taxes in USD ? The government spends far more than it collects in taxes. It's why they have trillions of dollars in deficits.

Well, I was just making the point that fiat currencies are not backed by 'nothing'. They are backed by demand. That demand is created by extracting taxes from the population at gunpoint.

Well, for starters, it is not a negative return. It's a very small return, but when all other assets are falling in value, that's not so bad. Secondly, the reason the yield is at a historic low is that there is a huge demand for T-bills. When better to issue a bunch more?

It is when compared to the rate of inflation. The US is running negative real interest rates and you know it.

Of course I know that the interest rates are lower than CPI right now. But you can't do anything about that. Doesn't change the fact that treasury yields close to zero are better than losing money, which is more or less the alternative.

Besides, if CPI included house prices (the folks do need somewhere to live), it would be negative too. Overall purchasing power isn't really being diminished in this sense.

Perceived safety? Exactly what do you see as safer? "strength"? Exactly what is stronger?

Gold

Gold might do very well. And yes you may some in case fiat currencies really do collapses some day. But keeping a sizeable percentage of whatever you have in gold is a high risk approach. Or at best, a very long term one.

Ok, so you see soaring stock markets just around the corner undermining Treasuries and cash? Despite what you said about the state of the banks and auto manufacturers a paragraph or so ago? I suppose we will have to disagree here.

So only banks and automakers make up the Dow and the S&P, yes ??

You really do see a stock market recovery just around the corner. Fair enough. I dunno. I suppose I just can't see overall risk appetite increasing enough to significantly influence the price of the buck.

The demise of the only viable world currency was, and continues to be, greatly exaggerated.

Many oil producers are understandably disenchanted with the dollar. Far-fetched as it may seem now, they may decide to change the currency in which their oil is sold.

To what? Where did you learn this?

Edited November 15, 2008 by cocopops

[bravingbangkok]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Sorry BB,

I have no idea. Could go to 38-40 like it did in the 1990's (especially if Brown borrows even more could go even lower), could go back to 70 if the Dollar suddenly crashes, more likely to sit between 50 and 55 for now.

This is what I do.

I transfer the minimum funds I need to survive/get roof fixed. I leave the rest in the UK in an active savings account. I have telephone banking and on-line banking with a special security system the bank provide. I also have a Forex account with a good broker.

I watch for volatile spikes in THB. It's a tremendously volatile currency and can readily spike over short periods of time. The trick is to read it as a spike and not do what I did last time, be complacent and think the 'spike' was a long term recovery of the Pound, i.e., beginning of August this year, went to 67 only to drop back very quickly.

Have a system. Put it in place. Watch the Baht on a daily basis (I have a little currency converter on my desktop). Be sensible about what the UK's prospects are (not good) and don't be greedy. Reckon if it spikes to 63 again we'll be lucky.

I know. It's a nightmare. After all the hard work in the UK and not buying their ridiculously overpriced housing, only to be shafted by this is . . . well it's New Labour isn't it. Add to that if I have no work (because of illness at mo) I have no recourse to the welfare state (higher rate taxpayer, self-employed, IR35). It's all <deleted>.

In the many years I have been here I have never really thought about it like that, yes I will take the good advice and put a system in place. I mostly deal in US$ so it is not so bad but I keep most of my savings in a high interest HSBC savings account. I was about to transfer over some dosh when it went back to 56 but as with the gold a couple of weeks ago I was being too greedy slap round the back of the head for me I think !

Thanks for the advice it was greatly needed.

No problem, BB.

Only other thing I'll say is cut out all discretionary spending. The old woman's in for a big shock!

I can assure you all the credit cards have been locked up hehe not that I eve used so beastly things !

[HardenedSoul]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

[flying]

The usual position is that fiat currencies are backed by taxation.

That could be its ultimate downfall

I dont know about your neck of the woods but with unemployment sky rocketing & angry citizens,,,,,,

[spiderman2]

People on this post are saying the strength of the BHT to the GBP is linked to the dollar.

If this is the case why then when i first came to LOS in 2000 was i getting 80BHT to the GBP, whilst at the same time getting $1.50.

I'd like to know where you exchange your GBP for Thai Baht.

According to the exchange rates posted on the Bangkok Bank website, the highest rate for the GBP in 2000 was 64.20 at the very end of December, with the lowest exhange rate being 57.19 on May 26th, for the majority of the year it was in the 58-59 range.

I am as sure as i can be that was the rate, i was even going to say it was 82. I was there September 2nd 2000, it certainly wasnt as low as your research shows.

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Sorry BB,

I have no idea. Could go to 38-40 like it did in the 1990's (especially if Brown borrows even more could go even lower), could go back to 70 if the Dollar suddenly crashes, more likely to sit between 50 and 55 for now.

This is what I do.

I transfer the minimum funds I need to survive/get roof fixed. I leave the rest in the UK in an active savings account. I have telephone banking and on-line banking with a special security system the bank provide. I also have a Forex account with a good broker.

I watch for volatile spikes in THB. It's a tremendously volatile currency and can readily spike over short periods of time. The trick is to read it as a spike and not do what I did last time, be complacent and think the 'spike' was a long term recovery of the Pound, i.e., beginning of August this year, went to 67 only to drop back very quickly.

Have a system. Put it in place. Watch the Baht on a daily basis (I have a little currency converter on my desktop). Be sensible about what the UK's prospects are (not good) and don't be greedy. Reckon if it spikes to 63 again we'll be lucky.

I know. It's a nightmare. After all the hard work in the UK and not buying their ridiculously overpriced housing, only to be shafted by this is . . . well it's New Labour isn't it. Add to that if I have no work (because of illness at mo) I have no recourse to the welfare state (higher rate taxpayer, self-employed, IR35). It's all <deleted>.

In the many years I have been here I have never really thought about it like that, yes I will take the good advice and put a system in place. I mostly deal in US$ so it is not so bad but I keep most of my savings in a high interest HSBC savings account. I was about to transfer over some dosh when it went back to 56 but as with the gold a couple of weeks ago I was being too greedy slap round the back of the head for me I think !

Thanks for the advice it was greatly needed.

No problem, BB.

Only other thing I'll say is cut out all discretionary spending. The old woman's in for a big shock!

I can assure you all the credit cards have been locked up hehe not that I eve used so beastly things !

Never had one, although now I wish I could rip the UK banks apart and have 50 of the bl00dy things.

[spiderman2]

People on this post are saying the strength of the BHT to the GBP is linked to the dollar.

If this is the case why then when i first came to LOS in 2000 was i getting 80BHT to the GBP, whilst at the same time getting $1.50.

I'd like to know where you exchange your GBP for Thai Baht.

According to the exchange rates posted on the Bangkok Bank website, the highest rate for the GBP in 2000 was 64.20 at the very end of December, with the lowest exhange rate being 57.19 on May 26th, for the majority of the year it was in the 58-59 range.

I am as sure as i can be that was the rate, i was even going to say it was 82. I was there September 2nd 2000, it certainly wasnt as low as your research shows.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/GBP/hist2000.html

Just checked here would seem i am way out on what i was getting, i could get twatted on 20 quid then and have a blinding night out, now it's take at least 50.

[cocopops]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

And this new currency will be used to price oil internationally? A brand new domestic currency of a loose-knit group of gulf states? Huh.

Edited November 16, 2008 by cocopops

[VegasVic]

A major problem with the Gold standard is, there just isn't enough Gold that's been mined to be representative of global economies.

One of two things would have to happen,

1. the price of Gold would have to skyrocket, and with it, everything else, as one would make constant comparisons of value.

2. Or Gold stays somewhere near it's jewelry value and the price of everything else plunges to it's "comparative value".

I see neither of those things as like to happen, ever.

1. One to two years ago, in 2006/2007, Peter Schiff * was laughed at by every single economist when he predicted the financial crisis. Will be laughed at again ?

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tzUwfqvJY $ 2.000 GOLD in 2009...or

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=iax_BsNICes&...feature=related $ 5.000 GOLD by 2012 ?

I hope most of you are able to watch these videos as he is predicting the fall of the DOLLAR as well.

2. see # 1

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff#Economic_views

&

* [url=http://www.europac.net/]http://www.europac.net/[/ur

LaoPo

Peter Schiff has been a doomdayer for many years, his views just finally found and economy it fits Its kind of like the guy who moved to Southern California and told everyone who would listen that there was a big earthquake coming real soon, after stating this every day for 9 years their was finally a big quake, and all of the people who had heard him for the first time just a few weeks proior thought he was a prophet, that is until they were clued in that he had been saying the same thing every day for the last 9 years Bingo Bongo also predicted this crisis well over a year ago the least you could do is offer Bingo equal billing with Mr. Schiff As I think Lana pointed out there is not enough gold in the world mined or unmined to back the worlds currencies, so you can forget the goldgugs wet dream about reverting back to the gold standard. The dirty little secret is that the situation in China is far worse than what is being publically announced, and so commodities (yes that includes Mr. Schiffs favorites Gold and Oil as well) will be in for an extended bear market that could last for years not months, and disinflation and deflation will be with us for as far as the eye can see!!! As far as the Dollar goes, just what currencies are the the greenback suppose to fall against, the EURO? the Pound? the Aussie dollar? You have got to be kidding Just remember even the guy calling for the end of the world will be right , provided he lives long enough

[VegasVic]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

And this new currency will be used to price oil internationally? A brand new domestic currency of a loose-knit group of gulf states? Huh.

Mr. Obama will likely bailout the Big 3, but the conditions will be an immediate increase in CAFE standards and, and retooling the industry for CNG and Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. If this new gulf states currency is backed by oil, it just might face some serious devaluation in its first few years of issuance

[chiang mai]

All interesting stuff for sure but this topic is about the fall of Sterling so perhaps helpful if we can redirect away from the US car companies et al!!!.

It now looks like a UK politician has done the unthinkable and stated the obvious by suggesting that there may be a run on Sterling. A little late for sure but nevertheless significant that it should get so much press. I wonder what the coming week will bring - either the Pound is going to nosedive and plumb new depths, in which case the Baht rate is going to plummet and a load of Thai based Brits will suffer. Alternatively this could signal a reversal or floor and be viewed as the point when things leveled off. Personally I don't have high hopes for the latter, can't see a real reason why that should happen, but we have to have something positive to look forward to.

Views anyone?

[jesimps]

All interesting stuff for sure but this topic is about the fall of Sterling so perhaps helpful if we can redirect away from the US car companies et al!!!.

It now looks like a UK politician has done the unthinkable and stated the obvious by suggesting that there may be a run on Sterling. A little late for sure but nevertheless significant that it should get so much press. I wonder what the coming week will bring - either the Pound is going to nosedive and plumb new depths, in which case the Baht rate is going to plummet and a load of Thai based Brits will suffer. Alternatively this could signal a reversal or floor and be viewed as the point when things leveled off. Personally I don't have high hopes for the latter, can't see a real reason why that should happen, but we have to have something positive to look forward to.

Views anyone?

I surmise that it has to be a pre-arranged plan between Brown/Darling/Merv and that Tory guy Osborne to force sterling to drop as low as possible. After all, no one in their right mind could be stupid enough to risk a run on the pound accidentally........could they?

[cmsally]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

Strange the opposition should get their knuckles wrapped for speaking out on the state of things, when the govt. and BOE can't seem to open their mouth without uttering the big R word.

[jesimps]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

Strange the opposition should get their knuckles wrapped for speaking out on the state of things, when the govt. and BOE can't seem to open their mouth without uttering the big R word.

You're right of course, the govt and Boe have been talking down the economy for a long time now, hence the plunging pound. They don't need any help from the Tories. Still think it has to be part of some fiendish plan though otherwise the permanent under secretaries would have gagged them before now. I think the pound will fall a lot further, as the Boe isn't going to start buying pounds in the near future.

[HardenedSoul]

As I think Lana pointed out there is not enough gold in the world mined or unmined to back the worlds currencies, so you can forget the goldgugs wet dream about reverting back to the gold standard. The dirty little secret is that the situation in China is far worse than what is being publically announced, and so commodities (yes that includes Mr. Schiffs favorites Gold and Oil as well) will be in for an extended bear market that could last for years not months, and disinflation and deflation will be with us for as far as the eye can see!!! As far as the Dollar goes, just what currencies are the the greenback suppose to fall against, the EURO? the Pound? the Aussie dollar? You have got to be kidding Just remember even the guy calling for the end of the world will be right , provided he lives long enough

The situation in China may, indeed, be far worse than publicly stated but that's largely irrelevant because they can AFFORD to stump up readies for a stimulus package whereas the US and the UK can't unless they issue debt. $2 trillion in foreign reserves can provide a LOT of stimulus, my friend. The Chinese government HAS to provide jobs for those who've lost jobs in the export sector slump or face an uprising.

Britain is witnessing a foreign exodus from gilts as we speak and the US will be next. As for which currencies the dollar will fall against, well it's just as you said; the pound, the euro, the loonie and Aussie buck. The US has ensured that its recession will be longer and deeper thanks to all the tinkering it's done with it's financial engines.

I would DEARLY love to be a fly on the wall near you when this comes to pass . . . VERY SOON !! The look on your face will be priceless

[cclub75]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

It's funny... do you seriously believe that the causes of the problem are political ?

Remove G.Brown, and bam, UK is rozy again ?

UK could be rozy again if people accept that the value of their house must be divided by 2. Roughly. They must accept a decrease of their (artificial) wealth.

And go back to work.

Then, and only after, the market could start again etc.

It's surreal the number of people who only want one thing : to maintain the status quo. They say "give us Obama" and his magical stick, and we can quickly forget the current crisis, and act like it never happened.

[HardenedSoul]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

It's funny... do you seriously believe that the causes of the problem are political ?

Remove G.Brown, and bam, UK is rozy again ?

UK could be rozy again if people accept that the value of their house must be divided by 2. Roughly. They must accept a decrease of their (artificial) wealth.

And go back to work.

Then, and only after, the market could start again etc.

It's surreal the number of people who only want one thing : to maintain the status quo. They say "give us Obama" and his magical stick, and we can quickly forget the current crisis, and act like it never happened.

. . . and the truth shall set them free

It's truly amazing how many would-be homesellers in the UK simply refuse to accept that the value of their homes have fallen. They're still in denial. Soon enough, the repossessed/foreclosed properties will get to the point where they ARE the market much as is the case in the US and, from recollection of the last property crash in the UK, I can tell you with absolute sincerity, the lenders will sell properties in foreclosure for peanuts. It's terrifying but there are going to be plenty of tears shed in the next couple of years . . .

[chiang mai]

My understanding is that the BOE has a firm policy of non-intervention when it comes to the value of Sterling, for whatever that is worth.

Also, loved the post from jesimps:

"I surmise that it has to be a pre-arranged plan between Brown/Darling/Merv and that Tory guy Osborne to force sterling to drop as low as possible. After all, no one in their right mind could be stupid enough to risk a run on the pound accidentally........could they? huh.gif".

I'm also fond of sarcasm and satire, please don't tell me that wasn't those things!

[chiang mai]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

It's funny... do you seriously believe that the causes of the problem are political ?

Remove G.Brown, and bam, UK is rozy again ?

UK could be rozy again if people accept that the value of their house must be divided by 2. Roughly. They must accept a decrease of their (artificial) wealth.

And go back to work.

Then, and only after, the market could start again etc.

It's surreal the number of people who only want one thing : to maintain the status quo. They say "give us Obama" and his magical stick, and we can quickly forget the current crisis, and act like it never happened.

. . . and the truth shall set them free

It's truly amazing how many would-be homesellers in the UK simply refuse to accept that the value of their homes have fallen. They're still in denial. Soon enough, the repossessed/foreclosed properties will get to the point where they ARE the market much as is the case in the US and, from recollection of the last property crash in the UK, I can tell you with absolute sincerity, the lenders will sell properties in foreclosure for peanuts. It's terrifying but there are going to be plenty of tears shed in the next couple of years . . .

There was a wonderful article in one of the UK papers recently that mentioned a survey that was taken where homeowners were asked their feelings about property prices. The net of it all was that a whopping 80%+ felt that whilst the value of homes around them had fallen in value, almost none of them felt that the value of their own home had dropped. Denial? I would say so. But after so many years of the gravy train of rising house prices it is understandable to a degree, more than that it is very sad.

[Naam]

There was a wonderful article in one of the UK papers recently that mentioned a survey that was taken where homeowners were asked their feelings about property prices. The net of it all was that a whopping 80%+ felt that whilst the value of homes around them had fallen in value, almost none of them felt that the value of their own home had dropped. Denial? I would say so. But after so many years of the gravy train of rising house prices it is understandable to a degree, more than that it is very sad.

what difference does it make whether the home in which you live has appreciated 100% or fallen in value 50% if you have no intention to sell and move to another place?

[Naam]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

yawn... that and a bunch of other fairy tales (China et al) i hear since a decade or more

[thaimate]

My views are that UK (like the US) is considerably jaded from a long running incompetent government.

New elections and new government to turn things around, much as in the US.

It's funny... do you seriously believe that the causes of the problem are political ?

Remove G.Brown, and bam, UK is rozy again ?

UK could be rozy again if people accept that the value of their house must be divided by 2. Roughly. They must accept a decrease of their (artificial) wealth.

And go back to work.

Then, and only after, the market could start again etc.

It's surreal the number of people who only want one thing : to maintain the status quo. They say "give us Obama" and his magical stick, and we can quickly forget the current crisis, and act like it never happened.

. . . and the truth shall set them free

It's truly amazing how many would-be homesellers in the UK simply refuse to accept that the value of their homes have fallen. They're still in denial. Soon enough, the repossessed/foreclosed properties will get to the point where they ARE the market much as is the case in the US and, from recollection of the last property crash in the UK, I can tell you with absolute sincerity, the lenders will sell properties in foreclosure for peanuts. It's terrifying but there are going to be plenty of tears shed in the next couple of years . . .

your dead right

they will sell them for peanuts ,i was there buying and made a bomb.

one mans loss anothers gain.

[HardenedSoul]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

yawn... that and a bunch of other fairy tales (China et al) i hear since a decade or more

Me too but I remember people just like you treating Nouriel Roubini's predictions of a collapse of the world's financial system with similar derision . . . and that was only in 2006 . . .

You obviously believe that the US will remain the world's premier economic power for years to come and that's fair enough but I'm afraid the playing field is changing under your feet. The worrying thing about all this is that the Chinese don't even want to be a world leader - they're far more concerned about their 1.3bn population and how they're going to provide employment for them. The US like their current role as No.1 economic power but, unfortunately, the world isn't going to play along for much longer. Why would you want to sell to a country that cannot pay ?

[chiang mai]

To what? Where did you learn this?

It's well documented that the Gulf states are moving towards a unified currency. I think estimations of 2010 implementation are optimistic but when they do it, it'll be pegged to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar. This will have repercussions for the greenback . .

yawn... that and a bunch of other fairy tales (China et al) i hear since a decade or more

Me too but I remember people just like you treating Nouriel Roubini's predictions of a collapse of the world's financial system with similar derision . . . and that was only in 2006 . . .

You obviously believe that the US will remain the world's premier economic power for years to come and that's fair enough but I'm afraid the playing field is changing under your feet. The worrying thing about all this is that the Chinese don't even want to be a world leader - they're far more concerned about their 1.3bn population and how they're going to provide employment for them. The US like their current role as No.1 economic power but, unfortunately, the world isn't going to play along for much longer. Why would you want to sell to a country that cannot pay ?

Er, the USD currency/Global Crisis/World Affairs threads are second left, go straight for a while and you'll find them on the right hand side! Mods?