Consumer Credit In Thailand

[midas]

We all know that people in Thailand rely heavily on credit to finance

new pickup trucks and consumer goods. With the USA economy currently

a standstill because credit has dried up, I just wonder if anyone has experienced any change

in credit conditions in Thailand? Yesterday there was an article in Bangkok Post

saying Bangkok Bank and two other banks could be badly affected by the

Lehman Brothers collapse so will this lead to a drying up of the credit market

here also? In other words, have there been any visible changes in consumer

spending patterns very recently?

[cclub75]

We all know that people in Thailand rely heavily on credit to finance

new pickup trucks and consumer goods. With the USA economy currently

a standstill because credit has dried up, I just wonder if anyone has experienced any change

in credit conditions in Thailand?

There is apparently no credit crunch in Thailand... Yet.

Look at the chart, (datas from BOT)

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/08/22...ume-and-growth/

Now... we would need to find the details about for consumers goods only (my point : credit to "individuals" grew 11 % in june, year on year... but what are the details ? How much for housing for instance, and consumer goods, etc.)

Furthermore, those figures are for "commercial banks" only. What about other financial institutions ?

So it's not totally clear.

[benjamat]

A bit worrying that the thai people are following the developed countries into a potential debt crisis.

[Farma]

Is there a credit crunch?

3 banks have been trying to outdo each other offering the missus a large property loan and her bank has been trying to up her credit card limit. All in the past few weeks.

[midas]

So it really is AMAZING THAILAND....................

We have PAD protestors occupying Govt House, we have commentators

saying that up 70% of tourists may stay away from Thailan this high season,

we have The US President on TV warning that the economy in the USA has almost stopped

because of a lack of finance ..............but here in Thailand people can still

get loans relatively easily.............is that good or bad ?

[cclub75]

but here in Thailand people can still

get loans relatively easily.............is that good or bad ?

You know very well the answer.

I think the "fog of the war" is really confusing people. No one seems surprised by the striking U-Turn made by the US authorities 10 days ago : i'm speaking about Treasury and FED (Paulson and Bernanke) plus Bush saying in june, july, august that "the economy is resilient", that the "banking system is sound", plus the figures of GDP Q2 that were sooooooo good (+3,3 %... revised down yesterday at +2,8 % bad luck huh !) etc.

And then, one month after, suddendly it's almost the end of the world !

Some people argue that it's a trick to push the Paulson Plan, to scare congress.

Other think that it's just the biggest propaganda operation that is ending, crumbling under its own weight : hide the disaster until the elections, to secure a victory.

But the situation is so bad, so terribly wrong... that they didn't make it. One month and a half short ! Really bad luck...

I'm of course in the second group...

What's the link with Thailand ?

Everybody was under the US powerful drug... Thai bankers, thai businesses, thai politicians, thai bureaucrats... they still haven't digested the US U-Turn. Therefore, they all -still- rely on rozy forecasts and rozy plans made last year... Okay we had the oil crisis, firing up inflation. It was a first alert. But a false one.

All those people continue to think, to work on the "growth trajectory" like a shell. Unstoppable.

Willing to give credit card to Somchai who have 10 000 THB per month salary, to give housing loans, to reduce interest rates, to "boost" domestic consumption, blablabla etc.

They have absolutely no clue.

This is why is going to be bloody. Because nobody is prepared ! It's as simple as that.

Thailand is not prepared for a global recession. Zero.

And you have to explain to me how Thailand can avoid a recession when most of its exports customers are about (or already) to step into recession ?

And, this is the thai's touch : the political instability is going to increase the problem...

You can't seriously believe that for instance the new Industry Minister, who is a... cop (police general, yes sir), would be able to take any rational and good decisions as far as industry is concerned. And other ministers having to work... in an old airport because Gvt house is occupied by lunatics PAD in yellow shirt... Ah ah ah ah.

Indeed, this is the thai's touch.

I mean with such people at the governement we're doomed. No doubt.

Edited September 27, 2008 by cclub75