Abhisit Vejjajiva Elected New Prime Minister Of Thailand

[TAWP]

You cannot or are incapable of?

If you claim that the forum software is censoring your urls, please post a set of keywords to get to the pages right away via google, preferably via the 'Feeling lucky'-alternative.

Why you can't post links when every other member does?

Well, it may come as a disappointment to you, but i am neither god nor the owner of this web forum, and therefore have not the slightest idea why i can't post links.

Again, google it, please.

Members with 5 or less posts cannot post links, as a forum anti-spam measure.

You should be able to post a link now.

Mr. TAWP, do you actually read any other posts than your own?

Yes, I do, do you?

Try reading my post again, as I give tips for him and others how they still can post 'links' even if they seem to be hindered.

[Ulysses G.]

A mod already handled it.

[justanothercybertosser]

I don't think Suriyasai made that up. I mention it because Nirmal Ghosh reports shooting only from PAD side.

Of course he wouldn't.

Can we please see the name and the picture of the PAD member wounded by a gunshot that night, including an independent confirmation other than the usual Limthongkul owned "media" sources, and other blatant pro PAD medias? Should be available, as PAD has always been good at publicizing their own wounded (of which in the later stages there were plenty).

Anyhow, i have to go now. Thanks for the entertainment.

[Plus]

Can we please see the name and the picture of the PAD member wounded by a gunshot that night, including an independent confirmation other than the usual Limthongkul owned "media" sources

Would you like french fries with that?

In support of your facts you don't give as much as a link...

[hammered]

Is there any chance of getting back on topic about the new PM rather than rehashing the same arguements and never changing opinions on the same old off topic stuff that seems to crop up on many threads

peace

[Koo82]

When the PM was born with the help for PAD, Army, elite and Constitution Court, how can it make sense if we don't mention PAD?

Edited January 14, 2009 by Koo82

[Koo82]

As some experts have said there were no big damage done by PAD, I read these 2 links again and think to myself "Did Thai Airways and AOT just fool us by telling lies?"

Thai Airways To Sue Pad For 20 Billion Baht

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Airways...25&start=25

AOT to sue PAD for airport damage

Suvarnabhumi had lost Bt50 million a day, Don Mueang Bt10 million and the other four airports a combined Bt4 million.

the damage is Bt64 million a day plus lost opportunity cost

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/12...ss_30090787.php

[sriracha john]

When the PM was born with the help for PAD

I didn't know midwifery was among the activities of PAD, but thanks for the information.

[plachon]

When the PM was born with the help for PAD

I didn't know midwifery was among the activities of PAD, but thanks for the information.

Didn't know they had a PAD chapter in Newcastle. Geordie PADs really were a versatile lot in those days!

[younghusband]

YH I dont think we disagree too much in reality.

What I write here is based on converstaions with ordinary people mostly Thaksin lovers by th eway. What I get is that in terms of the PAD: what they did is wrong. In terms of the reds: what they are now doing is wrong. Give the Dems a chance as you say and part of that is they choose who they want to run things although most arent particularly up with who runs every ministry and dont seem to care too much.

The flip side which I didnt mention before, and which I agree with you on, is that there are very real and long term desires, grievances and wants. These are not connected to any feeling about PAD but have been around for as long as I can remember, which is way way before Thaksin As the country has got richer the feeling that it is time for them to do better has grown and Thaksin did tap into this. Abhisit is obviously trying to do so now too. I agree with you this is only going to grow and unless policy decisions are mad eto address the underlying issues (and even Thaksin didnt) then it will lead to social unrest.

However, that will happen whether PAD speakers nad those who attended a rally are in government or not. The reality as I see it especially upcountry is that Abhisit and his government are experiencing good will and initially at least are making an effort. It remains to be seen whether they will or maybe more relevently can continue it. In this context putting PAD speakers into mostly advisor positions isnt really going to upset the mix. The mix will however be shaken if the government fail to meet at least minimum expectations upcountry either through decision or more likely through inability caused by extrenal factors.

I also think that at times the red side overstate the unwillingness of the "elite" to give anything to the majority. My read and unlike with the poor I dont have many elite connections at all;) is that this is a silly analysis. I believe the elite are quite aware of how the poorer elements of society feel and not at all indifferent to it. They are like a conservative group in any country. They dont want to undermine their own position but they equally dont want to give it all away. Careful accomodation as with most conservative groups is probably their aim. They havent in recent politcal history had an opportunity to do this as they rapidly fell out with Thaksin. Now however, with the more accomodating Abhisit they do have the opportunity to show they are willing to take a bit of hurt and assist in a "proper accomodation". I think the problem will not be that there is a lack of will but that the timing in terms of economic issues could well undermine the whole attempt and leave the country facing a more turbulent future. I would also add that personally being well to the left of any conservative I do not personally advocate this conservative accomodation but as an analysis I would think that is exactly what is going to be attempted in Thailand and for the sake of stability it would probably be good if it worked (putting aside my personal politcal opinions for a moment).

Hammered

Thoughtful post which has the great merit of making me re-examine some of my assumptions.As you say we broadly agree.To be honest I'm not sure how much the PAD appointees upset the mass of Thais but they certainly offend me, admittedly not a very important consideration!It's just that Abhisit embodies certain liberal democratic values which must jar with some of the PAD positions which say Kasit supported.It's disingenuous to say, as Abhisit has, that the past is the past.For heavens sake some US prospective cabinet appointees fail because they employed illegal maids, as opposed to holding a country to ransom.

The other point you make is well made about the "proper accomodation".What a study of history provides, despite the screams and rants from some that Thailand is unique, is the understanding that what is going on now can be replicated in various forms by many cultures and societies over the centuries.Certainly there is the possibility of give and take, but I have argued that the Thai elite has a very limited sense of enlightened self interest, as compared with the nineteenth century British landed aristocracy (I'm thinking for example of the remarkable social reforms that accompanied the extension of the franchise and the politicisation of the working classes.)If you examine the elite's actions over the last few months there have been some acts of massive stupidity which a few moments thought would have determined set back their cause.That's why I'm not sure you are right about the flexibility on the elite side.Some elements seem to think it's a zero sum game, and that's a recipe for disaster.Meanwhile as Chang Noi recently pointed out the whole country is talking, thinking, exchanging information in a way that was inconceivable a few years ago:that has implications too.

[Steve2UK]

Don't be so nitpicky.

"Nit-picky" for you - but required clarity and credibility for most of us.

Fact and speculation are (at most) distant cousins. Increasingly, you (and certain others) seem to view them as identical twins - interchangeable whenever it suits you.

[Jai Dee]

Abhisit insists on adopting reconciliation, harmony policy

Prime Minister Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva ensured diplomatics corps that his Government committed to fostering reconciliation and harmony in the Thai society, he insisted his administration would uphold the rule of law, good governance, accountability, honesty and integrity in discharging its responsibilities as the people’s government. Strengthening relations with neighbouring countries also the heart of Thai Government’s foreign policy.

Mr. Abhisit, at the reception for the diplomatics corps and heads of international organizations in Thailand on Wednesday (January 14), said that he was certain that the diplomats have been following recent developments on the political scene in Thailand very closely and with great interest.

The past year, indeed, has not been an easy one for Thailand, he said, adding as Thai people have lived through some ‘ups and downs’ and, at times, complicated situations.

“But we are now moving into a promising period of democratic transition. The transition that will ensure harmony in our society, contentment for our people, and confidence amongst our friends,” stressed the premier.

He outlined some promising indications as followed:

Firstly, since his assumption of office as Prime Minister, Thailand has achieved a measure of internal political stability.

The results of the by-elections across the country and the election of the Governor of Bangkok last Sunday (January 11) have furthermore sustained this momentum. The Government pledged to do its utmost to ensure that this stability became ever more secure in the days and months ahead.

“We have assumed office through the democratic parliamentary process, and my Government is committed to fostering reconciliation and harmony in Thai society”.

“I have also sought to make clear from the very start that my Government will uphold the rule of law. We will emphasize good governance, accountability, honesty and integrity in discharging our responsibilities as the people’s government”, Mr. Abhisit said.

Secondly, Thailand’s economic fundamentals remained strong, he said. The Government considered the revitalization of the economy and the restoration of confidence in the business sector to be tasks of the highest and imminent priority.

Therefore, the Government has recently launched a stimulus package of short- and long-term measures that included cost subsidies for basic services, job training and community development projects, tax incentives, and financial aid for employees and companies.

The package was designed to help Thai citizens and overall Thai economy cope with both internal and external shocks to the economy in a sustainable manner.

Thirdly, Thailand continued to play a constructive role in the sub-regional, regional, and international community.

The Thai Government also continued to honour it international obligations and commitments at all levels and across all sectors. Strengthening relations with neighbouring countries remained at the heart of the Government’s foreign policy.

The Government, he said, has confirmed dates and the venue for the upcoming 14th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, which will be held between February 27 and March 1 in the seaside resort town of Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri Khan Province.

“We are ready to host this Summit and to carry out our duties as ASEAN Chair throughout the year as the forum moves to implement the ASEAN Charter,” he said.

At the end of this month, he planned to attend the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

During the forum, he said that he would meet with both public and private sector leaders, adding he planned to convey the message that Thailand was ready to move forward and actively engage with friends and partners around the world, as it always has had and always would.

The measure of Thai Government, as was the case with all governments, lied in what it was done at the end of the day.

Noting he has often said that “actions speak louder than words”, Mr. Abhisit assured the envoys that his Government and himself would work hard for the Thai people and the country.

“We will also continue to work closely with you, our friends and partners. We will let the work that we do speak for us. We will also count on your continued trust and confidence, and look forward to continuing friendly and cooperative relations in all constructive endeavours with your respective countries and organizations,” Mr. Abhisit reiterated.

Source: National News Bureau of Thailand - 15 January 2009

[samgrowth]

When the PM was born with the help for PAD

I didn't know midwifery was among the activities of PAD, but thanks for the information.

Didn't know they had a PAD chapter in Newcastle. Geordie PADs really were a versatile lot in those days!

Not all borned in Newcastle can be considered a true Geordie.

[sabaijai]

The redshirts were out in force in front of Government House yesterday. I think I counted 12.

They don't plan on starting any riots or taking over any airports and no one is paying them to protest. The difference is that the reds work for a living.

You could easily flip that argument around and say that unless someone pays for them to be there, no one shows up for the reds. After all they have one of the world's richest men backing them.

And they'll be working a lot longer to pay off the debt he put them in.

[hammered]

YH I dont think we disagree too much in reality.

What I write here is based on converstaions with ordinary people mostly Thaksin lovers by th eway. What I get is that in terms of the PAD: what they did is wrong. In terms of the reds: what they are now doing is wrong. Give the Dems a chance as you say and part of that is they choose who they want to run things although most arent particularly up with who runs every ministry and dont seem to care too much.

The flip side which I didnt mention before, and which I agree with you on, is that there are very real and long term desires, grievances and wants. These are not connected to any feeling about PAD but have been around for as long as I can remember, which is way way before Thaksin As the country has got richer the feeling that it is time for them to do better has grown and Thaksin did tap into this. Abhisit is obviously trying to do so now too. I agree with you this is only going to grow and unless policy decisions are mad eto address the underlying issues (and even Thaksin didnt) then it will lead to social unrest.

However, that will happen whether PAD speakers nad those who attended a rally are in government or not. The reality as I see it especially upcountry is that Abhisit and his government are experiencing good will and initially at least are making an effort. It remains to be seen whether they will or maybe more relevently can continue it. In this context putting PAD speakers into mostly advisor positions isnt really going to upset the mix. The mix will however be shaken if the government fail to meet at least minimum expectations upcountry either through decision or more likely through inability caused by extrenal factors.

I also think that at times the red side overstate the unwillingness of the "elite" to give anything to the majority. My read and unlike with the poor I dont have many elite connections at all;) is that this is a silly analysis. I believe the elite are quite aware of how the poorer elements of society feel and not at all indifferent to it. They are like a conservative group in any country. They dont want to undermine their own position but they equally dont want to give it all away. Careful accomodation as with most conservative groups is probably their aim. They havent in recent politcal history had an opportunity to do this as they rapidly fell out with Thaksin. Now however, with the more accomodating Abhisit they do have the opportunity to show they are willing to take a bit of hurt and assist in a "proper accomodation". I think the problem will not be that there is a lack of will but that the timing in terms of economic issues could well undermine the whole attempt and leave the country facing a more turbulent future. I would also add that personally being well to the left of any conservative I do not personally advocate this conservative accomodation but as an analysis I would think that is exactly what is going to be attempted in Thailand and for the sake of stability it would probably be good if it worked (putting aside my personal politcal opinions for a moment).

Hammered

Thoughtful post which has the great merit of making me re-examine some of my assumptions.As you say we broadly agree.To be honest I'm not sure how much the PAD appointees upset the mass of Thais but they certainly offend me, admittedly not a very important consideration!It's just that Abhisit embodies certain liberal democratic values which must jar with some of the PAD positions which say Kasit supported.It's disingenuous to say, as Abhisit has, that the past is the past.For heavens sake some US prospective cabinet appointees fail because they employed illegal maids, as opposed to holding a country to ransom.

The other point you make is well made about the "proper accomodation".What a study of history provides, despite the screams and rants from some that Thailand is unique, is the understanding that what is going on now can be replicated in various forms by many cultures and societies over the centuries.Certainly there is the possibility of give and take, but I have argued that the Thai elite has a very limited sense of enlightened self interest, as compared with the nineteenth century British landed aristocracy (I'm thinking for example of the remarkable social reforms that accompanied the extension of the franchise and the politicisation of the working classes.)If you examine the elite's actions over the last few months there have been some acts of massive stupidity which a few moments thought would have determined set back their cause.That's why I'm not sure you are right about the flexibility on the elite side.Some elements seem to think it's a zero sum game, and that's a recipe for disaster.Meanwhile as Chang Noi recently pointed out the whole country is talking, thinking, exchanging information in a way that was inconceivable a few years ago:that has implications too.

YH always intersting to get your take on things, and I agree that nothing is predictable.

I wouldnt disagree that some elements of the elite see it as a zero sum game, as does Thaksin in a different way. However, I would think they along with their Nemesis (or should that be the other way around) may well be sidelined by a created or real center. What you mention is highlighted toady by some elitist elements criticizing democratic populist policies, which are obviously needed for their own favoured party to suceed. However, I would think that there are very powerul people and groups out there that exert real control that are fully aware of the real situation. I still think an attempt at real accomodation is going to be made, or lets put it this way if they object to the conservative democrats trying to do that what are they going to do? Overthrow the whole country. They may be able to fight half and get a compromise they can live with, but if they fight the whole lot they will not.

From what I have seen , I would also say that Chang Noi is overestimating the level of politicization and willingness to discuss those issues around the whole country. There are stories of the beliefs of the UDD leaders going around and not being well received. That does not fit so well with Chang Noi's analysis which may be more indicative of discussion in urban areas and a few unique rural ones. That however, may well change in the future, but for shall we say more natural reasons than any political ones. Thailand remains a country so diverse that often politcal theories of left and right fail to analyse what is happening and the contradictions that exist in my experience and this hampers academics and political analysts in seeing the full picture.

Thailand has a very wealthy small established upper class, a very wealthy small newly rich class, a small established middle class, a fairly rapidly growing lower middle class if I may make that distinction, a small established petty bourgeoisie, a rapidly expanding urban working class, a large landed ultra-traditonal peasantry class which is gradually getting smaller, a small unlanded peasantry class. Put all those groups with their different interests, wants and needs into a mix and it is very hard to see. Add in that the country is regionally and if you like ethnically more diverse than many admit. Add in that family and clan remain more important than other groupings for many. Add in that even before the politcal upheaval began the country's previously rapidly expanding economy had begun to grow at a lot slower rates than in the past. Then throw the recent shenanigans and world recession into the pot and you really have something very difficult to predict or analyse, and in some ways it becomes amazing that Thailand hasnt seen more turbulence than it has. I really wouldnt want to try and make a definitive prediction considering all this, and accomodation will be very very difficult. However, we have to hope for the sake of stability it can be forged, and we should also rememeber that as both PAD and Thaksin have shown sometimes it is a lot easier to create and keep divisions than to transcend and fix them. However, inspite of my more left wing politics I do wish those trying to forge a deal that works for the people as opposed to small interests groups well for the only other option is not going to be very nice at all for anyone.

[Samuian]

.........edited.....

it is a lot easier to create and keep divisions than to transcend and fix them. However, inspite of my more left wing politics I do wish those trying to forge a deal that works for the people as opposed to small interests groups well for the only other option is not going to be very nice at all for anyone.

Yep, let's hope that, with this Captain at the helm the political situation of Thailand will be moved further steps towards the aim behind it all!

And as has been pointed out before strict adherence to the rule of law, for ALL!

It is prerogative for this government to get things right, set the dials and move to get rid of the decades build up of filth and grime, only this made possible what happened to this country lately.

To get all to play by the rules will be a whole different matter.

But as it has been said before hand, people talk, people look, people do want to understand what happened, awareness seems to open up, good news, feed 'em!

Abhisit made a couple of good points in his speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand, if this can be implemented, it will be a big leap forward!

So wait and see....

[Steve2UK]

YH always interesting to get your take on things, and I agree that nothing is predictable.

[snipped for brevity]

again. Another excellent post - please keep them coming, Hammered (and YH). Touchy subject, the class divides (we dislike using the word "class" - maybe "category" or "sector" is more neutral-sounding) - but they have to considered. I'd offer just one qualification. From statistics published not so long ago, it's clear that there's a lot of mobility between the "urban worker" category and one (arguably both) of the rural categories you mention. Given the current inevitable decline in factory/urban employment, it seems likewise inevitable that many will return to their (obviously rural) villages; if that's the case, the rural categories will actually increase in size for, say, the rest of this year (depending when the upturn happens). Once the economy is back to "normal", sure - that flow is likely to reverse and the trend you mention to continue long-term.

That said, if "a week is a long time in politics" (Harold Wilson, former UK PM)........ then a year is an age. And all this precisely during the time when Abhisit has to make his mark (no pun intended). As you say - nothing is predictable.

[Plus]

There's heavy critisism of the stimulus package in today's Bangkok Post from various economic gurus.

Many of them view it as a populist vote attracting campaign rather than sound economic policy.

Apparently Abhisit go his priorities "right", finally. For now he has little incentive to look further than one or two years ahead. If, however, he continues in the same vein they might just as well call themselves TRT sequel part IV.

It looks like under current political system, no matter who is in charge, the government is forced to do exactly the same shit, over and over again, against any common sense.

I just hope Abhisit doesn't extend it past the next elections. Somebody has to stop it, and if not him I don't see anyone else. Unlike the US political leaders here never seem to change.

[samgrowth]

There's heavy critisism of the stimulus package in today's Bangkok Post from various economic gurus.

Many of them view it as a populist vote attracting campaign rather than sound economic policy.

Apparently Abhisit go his priorities "right", finally. For now he has little incentive to look further than one or two years ahead. If, however, he continues in the same vein they might just as well call themselves TRT sequel part IV.

It looks like under current political system, no matter who is in charge, the government is forced to do exactly the same shit, over and over again, against any common sense.

I just hope Abhisit doesn't extend it past the next elections. Somebody has to stop it, and if not him I don't see anyone else. Unlike the US political leaders here never seem to change.

So back to the same old story.

Vote buying using public money.

[Plus]

Disgusting, I know.

I just hope Abhisit is doing it out of necessity - he MUST make Isanese accept him as alternative to Thaksin.

If that is the goal, country unification, I'm prepared to tolerate it for a while.

[Steve2UK]

Disgusting, I know.

I just hope Abhisit is doing it out of necessity - he MUST make Isanese accept him as alternative to Thaksin.

If that is the goal, country unification, I'm prepared to tolerate it for a while.

Abhisit can breathe a sigh of relief now.

[Siripon]

Disgusting, I know.

I just hope Abhisit is doing it out of necessity - he MUST make Isanese accept him as alternative to Thaksin.

If that is the goal, country unification, I'm prepared to tolerate it for a while.

Abhisit can breathe a sigh of relief now.

Does this mean that Plus is actually Sonthi Limtongkun???

[samgrowth]

Disgusting, I know.

I just hope Abhisit is doing it out of necessity - he MUST make Isanese accept him as alternative to Thaksin.

If that is the goal, country unification, I'm prepared to tolerate it for a while.

Abhisit can breathe a sigh of relief now.

Does this mean that Plus is actually Sonthi Limtongkun???

So Thai tax payer must contribute to the government to buy vote from poor Issan.

No wonder Thaksin avoided paying tax.

[Plus]

Yeah, Steve, laugh your heart out.

Of course I don't mean that I'm able to cause any troubles to Abhisit, just that I'm not going to judge Democrats on the merits of these polices for now.

I think that while economists argue economic sides of the package, they are actually more like political stimulus measures. If they manage to unite the country politically mamy of the economic policies won't be necessary anymore.

[jdinasia]

Disgusting, I know.

I just hope Abhisit is doing it out of necessity - he MUST make Isanese accept him as alternative to Thaksin.

If that is the goal, country unification, I'm prepared to tolerate it for a while.

It isn't unrealistic to put some emphasis on development upcountry. I would hope that it isn't just wasted and is done with much more REAL concern for usefulness and sustainability.

[Journalist]

I like the new economic proposals. They cut to the chase far better than USA's TARP or UK's bank recap package.

If you're going to pump-start an economy with quantitative easing, much better to put money in the hands of consumers rather than spending it on indirect schemes.

The main problem is that the money might be spent uselessly, eg on holidays to Penang. Better to hand out vouchers for OTOP products.

Thailand needs to get past obsessing and nitpicking over politics - fast, and not see everything as political, because with its trade balance going negative and its current account going into deficit, it has to face up to a huge oncoming train wreck. And thats going to affect everyone in Thailand, even you philosopher kings and teachers!

[Jai Dee]

PM: Amnesty to be considered by political transformation committee

Prime Minister comments that the amnesty of former members of administrative committees for certain political parties should be considered by the political transformation committee in order to avoid any personal benefit gains.

Yesterday (January 15), Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva stressed that the Phum Jai Thai Party’ concept of reprieving former members of administrative committees for certain political parties that, it has to be considered by the political transformation committee. He reasoned that if any political parties got involved in the decision, it could stir up speculation about personal benefit gains to certain individuals which in turn would induce negative image upon the Democrat Party-led Government.

Furthermore, the PM also added that the form of different mechanisms used to monitor and oversee political cases would be submitted to him for his consideration tomorrow by some individuals whose names had not yet been revealed thus far.

Source: National News Bureau of Thailand - 16 January 2009

[Jai Dee]

Thai premier admits he's a rocker at heart

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is no old fogy when it comes to music, telling an audience that his favorite bands in 2008 were Oasis, Guns 'N Roses and The Killers.

Speaking at a dinner at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, the Oxford- educated Abhisit said he really liked the comeback records of Oasis and Guns 'N Roses.

There were a lot of new bands he liked, including the Arctic Monkeys' side project The Last Shadow Puppets.

"When I look around the room, a lot of you were born too early," he said when asked about his top musical picks for 2008.

"The Killers new album is good, and there were very good releases last year, comebacks from Oasis, Metallica, even Guns 'N Roses."

The 44-year-old has cultivated an image as polished and trendy. He has a page and tens of thousands of friends on the internet social networking site hi5, and brags about his love for Newcastle United football club.

Source: AP - 16 January 2009

[Steve2UK]

Yeah, Steve, laugh your heart out.

Of course I don't mean that I'm able to cause any troubles to Abhisit, just that I'm not going to judge Democrats on the merits of these polices for now.

I think that while economists argue economic sides of the package, they are actually more like political stimulus measures. If they manage to unite the country politically mamy of the economic policies won't be necessary anymore.

Of course I know that - only pulling your leg. But you've got to admit it was funny? IMO we can't be deadly serious all the time. Unless I was right about you only seeing jokes by appointment?

OK - enough of this........ back to the serious stuff.

[hammered]

YH always interesting to get your take on things, and I agree that nothing is predictable.

[snipped for brevity]

again. Another excellent post - please keep them coming, Hammered (and YH). Touchy subject, the class divides (we dislike using the word "class" - maybe "category" or "sector" is more neutral-sounding) - but they have to considered. I'd offer just one qualification. From statistics published not so long ago, it's clear that there's a lot of mobility between the "urban worker" category and one (arguably both) of the rural categories you mention. Given the current inevitable decline in factory/urban employment, it seems likewise inevitable that many will return to their (obviously rural) villages; if that's the case, the rural categories will actually increase in size for, say, the rest of this year (depending when the upturn happens). Once the economy is back to "normal", sure - that flow is likely to reverse and the trend you mention to continue long-term.

That said, if "a week is a long time in politics" (Harold Wilson, former UK PM)........ then a year is an age. And all this precisely during the time when Abhisit has to make his mark (no pun intended). As you say - nothing is predictable.

Cheers for that Steve. I agree about the mobility and you bring me to something I had forgotten. Within the urban working sector there are from my observation (through family and work) two groups in themselves. There are those who actually regard themselves as farmers (usually middle aged to older) and who are quite happy to go back as long as the money is there and those that have left the villages and dont want to go back ever (usually younger to middle aged). With an economic reccesion this latter group are potentially the most likely to become unhappy as their dream is denied.

It also creates problems for the future as governments have to realise the desires of some workers to settle in their new locations, have a stable life and bring up kids with more middle class aspirations. Up to now governments have tended to see the migratory urban workers as farmers doing a little seasonal work to boost incomes and who are happy to live in rent free slums or temporary rooms given out by factories. My feeling is that while this latter group still exists that the we aint ever going back brigade will soon (in relative terms and after the economic stuff) be the far bigger one. In there lies the potential for real social strife if their very real needs are not addressed. There is a very real difference between those who see themselves as farmers and who when they want better for their kids they think of a working class job and those that aspire to become real working class now and see a better futurer for their kids as entering the bottom rungs of middle class existance. Still that is the future. For now there are other issues to be resolved.