Sick Of All This Usd / Gbp Talk?

[Pakeha]

Kiwis, and I geuss ozzies out there. How worried are you about the exchange rate? I'm starting to think we might be down to 15 baht to the kiwi very soon.

That's nearly half what it was 6 months ago. That means life in LOS (if you're living off income from NZ / Oz) is twice the cost ...

Kiwi vs USD - Not looking to improve. THB dependent on USD... Where does this leave us? Does it matter at all that we have the free trade agreement or that we are practically part of asia nowadays?

Should I sell my business and move to LOS now (expecting the kiwi to keep falling against THB) or should I hang in there (expecting the kiwi to gain against THB)?

Any thoughts (guesses?)at all welcomed.

[jubby]

Not many Kiwi's on this Forum maybe ;-)

I'll say a few words as I'm on a roll today and probably won't post again for a month or so.

I new the Aussies were suffering but not even heard the slightest wisper that the Kiwi had problems.

Your countries low profile compared to Aus & UK has got to be a good thing at the moment.

Everyone and his dog likes to kick the brits including the Aussies when were down but no ones going to kick you guys.

I could be wrong but your relatively small population is unlikely to have ran up the crazy foreign debt's that the UK has.

correct me if I'm wrong.

You'll bounce back pretty quickly I would have thought when some sense prevails.

[noahvail]

Should I sell my business and move to LOS now (expecting the kiwi to keep falling against THB) or should I hang in there (expecting the kiwi to gain against THB)?

Any thoughts (guesses?)at all welcomed.

Guesses (?) are about all I can offer . I expect the THB to fall against the NZ$.

That being said, you've got more of a kicker in your equation than exchange rates. Is your business profitable? Have you got a reasonable chance to sell it quickly at a good price? Do you own your own house/condo?

I've got dual citizenship, NZ/US. Moved to NZ when the exchange rate was US 39cents. My break-even on a fixed income was 65cents; when it hit 81, the time had come to move to TH. Fortunately, I was able to sell my house at no loss/no gain, a huge relief. Of course, now the rate is back down to 53 cents... but I'm glad it's done what it's done, cuz now I'm in LOS and loving it.

[12DrinkMore]

My feeling is that the Aussie banks have not got involved at the same casino table as the Brits and the Yanks, Aussieland still has a lot of natural assets which are in the ground and will be required in the future. Also the population IMO does not have the same mind set as the Brits, who expect to be spoon fed and looked after.

The Kiwi and the Aussie have suffered because of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, but in particular the Aussie has natural resources which will holf it up long term.

Just my opinion and I have some Aussies riding on it....

[mommysboy]

My feeling is that the Aussie banks have not got involved at the same casino table as the Brits and the Yanks, Aussieland still has a lot of natural assets which are in the ground and will be required in the future. Also the population IMO does not have the same mind set as the Brits, who expect to be spoon fed and looked after.

The Kiwi and the Aussie have suffered because of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, but in particular the Aussie has natural resources which will holf it up long term.

Just my opinion and I have some Aussies riding on it....

Well you did say opinion which is just as well really because what you've written is rubbish, although it is true about the natural resources.

[kiakaha]

Kiwis, and I geuss ozzies out there. How worried are you about the exchange rate? I'm starting to think we might be down to 15 baht to the kiwi very soon.

That's nearly half what it was 6 months ago. That means life in LOS (if you're living off income from NZ / Oz) is twice the cost ...

Kiwi vs USD - Not looking to improve. THB dependent on USD... Where does this leave us? Does it matter at all that we have the free trade agreement or that we are practically part of asia nowadays?

Should I sell my business and move to LOS now (expecting the kiwi to keep falling against THB) or should I hang in there (expecting the kiwi to gain against THB)?

Any thoughts (guesses?)at all welcomed.

My salary is in baht, but I also have rental and interest income in NZD....so i'm kinda stuck in the middle.

[Pakeha]

Guesses (?) are about all I can offer . I expect the THB to fall against the NZ$.

That being said, you've got more of a kicker in your equation than exchange rates. Is your business profitable? Have you got a reasonable chance to sell it quickly at a good price? Do you own your own house/condo?

I've got dual citizenship, NZ/US. Moved to NZ when the exchange rate was US 39cents. My break-even on a fixed income was 65cents; when it hit 81, the time had come to move to TH. Fortunately, I was able to sell my house at no loss/no gain, a huge relief. Of course, now the rate is back down to 53 cents... but I'm glad it's done what it's done, cuz now I'm in LOS and loving it.

Fair questions. Selling anything in this market is not a good idea unless you have to it would seem. My medium term plan is to relocate permanently to LOS and this plan seems to be pushed out quite a bit further if the exchange rate stays where it is.

I could eventually run my business from LOS but this seems less attractive if the NZD/THB stays the same, or gets worse.

Could rent my property and use this income also in LOS - unnattractive if NZD/THB stays where it is.

Farangs reliant on the USD, GBP or EURO that are concerned on TV don't know how lucky they are. LOS is a difficult option for kiwis dependent on NZ income if the exchange rate doesn't pick up.

An income in LOS seems the only relatively safe option if I want to ride out the exchange rate fluctuations long term.

[Pakeha]

My salary is in baht, but I also have rental and interest income in NZD....so i'm kinda stuck in the middle.

Kiakaha. That sounds like an ideal scenario. Other than the interest income being in NZD... At least the banks in NZ are safer than pretty much anywhere else in the world.

[kiakaha]

My salary is in baht, but I also have rental and interest income in NZD....so i'm kinda stuck in the middle.

Kiakaha. That sounds like an ideal scenario. Other than the interest income being in NZD... At least the banks in NZ are safer than pretty much anywhere else in the world.

yep ,well down on the interest(was fantastic about 1 year ago)...just gonna keep the NZD in NZL, wait it out and use my Thai credit/debit cards and accounts for the time being.

[waza]

Hopefully, as the world moves to restructuring its infrastructure, requiring more resourses the Aussie and Kiwi dollar will rebound.

Edited January 26, 2009 by waza

[neverdie]

My feeling is that the Aussie banks have not got involved at the same casino table as the Brits and the Yanks, Aussieland still has a lot of natural assets which are in the ground and will be required in the future. Also the population IMO does not have the same mind set as the Brits, who expect to be spoon fed and looked after.

The Kiwi and the Aussie have suffered because of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, but in particular the Aussie has natural resources which will holf it up long term.

Just my opinion and I have some Aussies riding on it....

I would disagree with what you have said about the Aussie Banks, the Australian banking industry is one of the most highly regulated banking systems in the world. In fact the top 4 Australian Banks are now rated in the worlds top 13. Their share price will continue to be hammered, its a standard trend at the moment, but they will survive.

As for the NZ dollar, it has always seemed to be pegged reasonably close to the Aussie & the Aussie is moving into a new world of pain in the short term because the world hasnt finished strangling commodoties.

Sadly I think you may be right and the Aussie & NZ dollars are probably going to test some new lows over the next few months......its the nature of the beast, its funny no one is talking about the periods where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollar were over-inflated on the market.

We may find the thai baht weakening slightly also, hopefully that will stop you from only getting 15 baht per kiwi paeso. We need to hold on - BUT don't make the mistake of holding your breath!

[Pakeha]

Sadly I think you may be right and the Aussie & NZ dollars are probably going to test some new lows over the next few months......its the nature of the beast, its funny no one is talking about the periods where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollar were over-inflated on the market.

I was in blissfull denial.

It's funny how we are happy with over-inflation when it works for us (kiwi/Aussie $ six months ago) and really p_ssed off about it when it doesn't (THB now)...

Historically (last ten years - I'm only young!) I think a fair exchange rate is about 22 - 24 baht to the kiwi dollar - are you listening BoT?

[VegasVic]

Sadly I think you may be right and the Aussie & NZ dollars are probably going to test some new lows over the next few months......its the nature of the beast, its funny no one is talking about the periods where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollar were over-inflated on the market.

I was in blissfull denial.

It's funny how we are happy with over-inflation when it works for us (kiwi/Aussie $ six months ago) and really p_ssed off about it when it doesn't (THB now)...

Historically (last ten years - I'm only young!) I think a fair exchange rate is about 22 - 24 baht to the kiwi dollar - are you listening BoT?

The BOT is a very small part of the equation! The Aussie and Kiwi dollar have been in a bubble for a few years now due to the Yen carry trade, the problem with the unwinding of the carry trade is that it still has another leg to go and when it is unwound it will not begin all over again. The worlds economies could very likely be in a disinflationary-deflationary environment for years not months. I wouldn't expect that commodities will bounce back for quite some time, and seeing how the Aussie dollar and aussie economy are commodity driven, the Aussie dollar could remain in the cellar for years to come The big game is with the Yen-Dollar-Yuan, the rest of the chips will just fall where they may.

[neverdie]

The writing was on the wall in the first half of last year, I thought the Aussie was gonna give the US a 1 for 1 tap for a while, anyway, the dollar was made round to go round, if you stress about this crapppp you will go nutty.

I moved the odd Aussie dollar last July to US & some to THB to live off, it was hard to resist buying AUD again in November but sadly I think Vegasvic may be right about the Ozzie. There is certainly heaps of cash to be made in trading currency @ the moment, if you have your finger on the pulse & enjoy the rush of it all.

Personally I'd like to see the Aussie go to 20cents US for about a week then rocket up to $5.50 per yankee dollar before plummeting again & going back and forth to the end of my time.....but I don't think I will get that lucky!

Good luck with the Kiwi buck brother....youre gonna need it!

[laphroaig]

My salary is in baht, but I also have rental and interest income in NZD....so i'm kinda stuck in the middle.

If you have the money, another rental property may be a good option. There are some very good snips to be had in NZ now. Interest rates low and going lower too.

[wensiensheng]

My feeling is that the Aussie banks have not got involved at the same casino table as the Brits and the Yanks, Aussieland still has a lot of natural assets which are in the ground and will be required in the future. Also the population IMO does not have the same mind set as the Brits, who expect to be spoon fed and looked after.

The Kiwi and the Aussie have suffered because of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, but in particular the Aussie has natural resources which will holf it up long term.

Just my opinion and I have some Aussies riding on it....

Well you did say opinion which is just as well really because what you've written is rubbish, although it is true about the natural resources.

The reality is that the Kiwi was artificially pushed up by speculators who borrwed yen at a low interest rate and deposited it in Kiwi at a high interest rate, aka the carry trade. Most insttutional speculators either don't have the money or the guts to do the carry trade anymore, particularly as the fall in kiwi interest rates doesn't make it so attractive these days. So the current fall is from a silly level, the like of which may not be seen again.

My theory is that both Kiwi and Aussie dollar are going to languish, and quite possibly fall further, for quite some time because a global recession means that the need for natural resources will remain at far lower levels than in recent years. That said, when the world economy does eventually start to grow again, Aussie in particular and maybe kiwi, will start to rebound quite quickly as stock piles of resources start to be rebuilt. So I would expect to see these two currencies, plus the Candy, recover more quickly than, say, Sterling, which will have a lot of baggage from high debt levels incurred to support bankrupt banks.

Just a view and I'm sure there are many that differ.

[Gary A]

If you are looking for an informed opinion, I'd say that you are just as well off tossing a coin. No one knows what will happen in the forex world. Those who think they know are going to be VERY wealthy OR VERY poor. In my opinion, your chances at a casino are about the same as trading currencies.

[Rinrada]

What about the kiwi peso

Dont know about the Kiwi....but the Peso...assume you mean the Phillo P has also re-bombed against the £......

My mate bought his land/house up in La Union a year or so ago when the EXchange rate was almost 100 P= £......

but now .........

[neverdie]

What about the kiwi peso

Dont know about the Kiwi....but the Peso...assume you mean the Phillo P has also re-bombed against the £......

My mate bought his land/house up in La Union a year or so ago when the EXchange rate was almost 100 P= £......

but now .........

Its a joke Rinrada, most Aussies and kiwis like to joke about their currencies because like most high yeilding currencies they are nearly always first to go haywire in uncertain economic times.

[Pakeha]

What about the kiwi peso

Dont know about the Kiwi....but the Peso...assume you mean the Phillo P has also re-bombed against the £......

My mate bought his land/house up in La Union a year or so ago when the EXchange rate was almost 100 P= £......

but now .........

Its a joke Rinrada, most Aussies and kiwis like to joke about their currencies because like most high yeilding currencies they are nearly always first to go haywire in uncertain economic times.

Spot on.

Rinrada - we call it the kiwi peso because like the peso (mexican or philipine) the kiwi $ is pretty worthless compared to other western currencies - USD, GBP, EURO...

[Pakeha]

17 baht to the kiwi yesterday

Good advice / perspectives given so far. Much appreciated.

Now the million dollar question - do I buy baht now for my trip over in April (back up to 18 baht this moment) or wait and see and hope it doesn't get worse before April? I'm talking about 350,000 - 400,000 baht so even a slight change makes a difference!