Financial Crisis

[Naam]

A toppling bag of rice in one of Northern Manchuria's warehouses sent shivers into global financial markets. Renowned gurus are drawing parallels and predict a huge financial crash anytime from now (most probably Friday after lunch). This crash might dwarf the one caused by the Visigodos and Vandals when crossing the Straits of Jebel al-Tariq (aka Gibraltar) into nowadays Morocco.

http://www.naams-financial_crash-history.edu

[midas]

John Lewis boss says France is ‘finished’

The managing director of John Lewis has described France as “sclerotic, hopeless and downbeat” and advised British entrepreneurs with investments in the country to “get them out quickly”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/article4225315.ece

Edited October 3, 2014 by midas

[Naam]

The boss of John Lewis, Andy Street, has apologised for describing France as "hopeless and downbeat" and advising people with investments there "to get them out quickly".

Quoted in The Times, Mr Street said about France that "nothing works and worse, nobody cares about it."

Mr Street later said the comments were not meant to be taken seriously but that he "clearly went too far".

He made the remarks at a dinner after his Eurostar train had been delayed.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29475011

[cheeryble]

When a friend who worked in a brokerage house immediately answered when asked how to BUY stock

"First thing is to START SELLING"

John Lewis have plans to move into France?

(Jean Louis?)

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

[midas]

When a friend who worked in a brokerage house immediately answered when asked how to BUY stock

"First thing is to START SELLING"

John Lewis have plans to move into France?

(Jean Louis?)

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

And how do you explain the actions of the French farmers?

French Farmers Set Tax Office On Fire – Demise of Europe.

The economic numbers in France are simply devastating. We only see more regulation and raising taxes to support bloated government especially in France. It is quite possible that any reform is simply too late for the French government is bankrupt, which was admitted by the finance minister Michel Sapin himself.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/21/french-farmers-set-tax-office-on-fire-demise-of-europe/

Edited October 5, 2014 by midas

[midas]

Remember Greece: the country that in 2010 launched Europe's sovereign solvency crisis and the ECB's own helpless attempts at intervention, which later was "saved", only to default shortly thereafter?

according to none other than S&P, at some point over the next 15 months, Greek debt is about to be in default when the country is no longer able to cover its financing needs. In other words, back to square one

Greece heading for second default

What you should know about Greece’s present state of affairs – an update

“It takes a passionate disregard for the truth to suggest that Greece is recovering.” That was my verdict last December upon being asked to comment on Greece’s rumoured recovery. Almost three months later, it is time for an update. The gist of today’s update is depressingly simple: Still, no sign of Greek-covery whatsoever. Indeed, every single indicator (including the ones that are presented as evidence of light at the tunnel’s end) points in a sadly negative direction…

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/03/01/what-you-should-know-about-greeces-present-state-of-affairs-an-update/

Edited October 5, 2014 by midas

[cheeryble]

The French farmers have been a Bolshy bunch of cochons since the revolution, when they went a lot farther than merely invading a tax office.

Once they blockaded Cherbourg and the Northern ports to stop us Brits sending calves over.

At question time in parliament a Labour MP asked Nicholas "Fatty" Soames, bon viveur and then Minister of Agriculture whose mum I knew, if Britain shouldn't consider banning French champagne and importing

Australian instead.

Instantly and to riotous laughter Soames rose flung back

"I don't think we have to go THAT far."

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Edited October 5, 2014 by cheeryble

[midas]

But you have to admit it's serious when the French President makes these statements? ( which makes the statement from boss of John Lewis, Andy Street look quite " diplomatic " actually. )

France was 'on verge of bankruptcy', Hollande says The President admitted to not having “sufficiently pointed out” exactly how serious the country’s financial situation was when he entered office -- in particular, the deterioration of competitiveness of French industry. He said he was then faced “with the worst crisis in the eurozone”.

I wonder how the competitiveness will be if things in the Ukraine lead to Russia turning off the gas?

http://www.france24.com/en/20140506-france-president-hollande-anniversary-mandate/

Edited October 5, 2014 by midas

[Naam]

Remember Greece: the country that in 2010 launched Europe's sovereign solvency crisis and the ECB's own helpless attempts at intervention, which later was "saved", only to default shortly thereafter?

according to none other than S&P, at some point over the next 15 months, Greek debt is about to be in default when the country is no longer able to cover its financing needs. In other words, back to square one

Greece heading for second default

What you should know about Greece’s present state of affairs – an update

“It takes a passionate disregard for the truth to suggest that Greece is recovering.” That was my verdict last December upon being asked to comment on Greece’s rumoured recovery. Almost three months later, it is time for an update. The gist of today’s update is depressingly simple: Still, no sign of Greek-covery whatsoever. Indeed, every single indicator (including the ones that are presented as evidence of light at the tunnel’s end) points in a sadly negative direction…

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/03/01/what-you-should-know-about-greeces-present-state-of-affairs-an-update/

By Yanis Varoufakis, professor of economics at the University of Athens. Cross posted from his blog

Prof. Varoufakis ignores Mario Draghi and his "whatever it takes!" in nearly three years of Draghi being in charge of the €URopean Central Bank he proved with actions that he means what he says.

[midas]

cheeryble I have a question for you and Naam. I have just heard on the Australian News that because of the costs associated with fighting terrorism the Australian government is highly likely to increase taxes. At the same time, the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will not agree to reduce foreign aid from Australia. My question is what do you think about this kind of situation? Do you think it is fair and reasonable for citizens of various now cash-strapped countries like USA, UK and Australia to suffer further reductions to their own standard of living and yet their governments can continue donating to other countries? How much did USA contribute to foreign aid?

The U.S., by far, gives more foreign aid than any other country. For the fiscal year 2013, President Obama asked for $55 billion to be distributed to more than 180 countries — that’s 1.5 percent of the federal budget.

For decades, Israel has topped the list. After that, the order is Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Egypt.

How much did UK contribute to foreign aid?

The UK's official development assistance (ODA) is expected to rise to £11.3bn when it hits the 0.7% target. With a population of about 63 million, the figure works out at roughly £137 per Brit. The advocacy group One calculates that a person on an income of £25,000 pays £5,465 in tax, of which £52 would go to the overseas aid budget a year.

How much did Australia contribute to foreign aid ?

Australia reported spending $5.4bn (£3.2m) on official development assistance (ODA) in 2012. This makes it the eighth largest aid donor in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group of rich countries, just ahead of Sweden ($5.2bn) and behind Canada ($5.6bn), and the Netherlands ($5.5bn).

[mccw]

According to your quotes Midas:

""USA gives the most by far" "5bl dollars"

But second quote said UK gives over £11billion GBP ; which is much more; and from a much smaller population.

Did USA miss a zero or is the author just trumpeting USA generosity over the facts?

[cheeryble]

It's like Whack-a-Mole!

You smack one reason for world collapse down and another one pops up.

Jeez it's even in the Washington Post email news now:

http://link.washingtontimesemail.com/52d05b600f365bf272f137711vl86.qwi/VDEX0sPoUlGfR-ouAbe77

Edited October 5, 2014 by cheeryble

[Naam]

cheeryble I have a question for you and Naam.

I have just heard on the Australian News that because of the costs associated with fighting terrorism the Australian government is highly likely to increase taxes. At the same time, the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will not agree to reduce foreign aid from Australia.

My question is what do you think about this kind of situation? Do you think it is fair and reasonable for citizens of various now cash-strapped countries like USA, UK and Australia to suffer further reductions to their own standard of living and yet their governments can continue donating to other countries?

i'm not sure about U.K. and Australia but i know that the lion share of "aid" rendered by the U.S. is either earmarked for specific purposes (buying U.S. made products), supporting the 51st state of the U.S. or deemed essential, e.g. Pakistan as supply route to troops in Afghanistan as well as fighting "insurgents"; the latter applies also to Iraq. Egypt is rewarded with cash aid and weaponry since Anwar el-Sadat promised a friendly attitude towards its neighbour Eretz Yisrael.

i am not in a position to judge whether this is fair and reasonable but i have strong doubts that the average Joe in any country would have a $/£/€ more in his pocket if aid is reduced.

[midas]

According to your quotes Midas:

""USA gives the most by far" "5bl dollars"

But second quote said UK gives over £11billion GBP ; which is much more; and from a much smaller population.

Did USA miss a zero or is the author just trumpeting USA generosity over the facts?

mccw its actually 55 ( fifty five ) billion dollars " For the fiscal year 2013, President Obama asked for $ 55 billion to be distributed to more than 180 countries — that’s 1.5 percent of the federal budget "

Edited October 6, 2014 by midas

[midas]

cheeryble I have a question for you and Naam.

I have just heard on the Australian News that because of the costs associated with fighting terrorism the Australian government is highly likely to increase taxes. At the same time, the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will not agree to reduce foreign aid from Australia.

My question is what do you think about this kind of situation? Do you think it is fair and reasonable for citizens of various now cash-strapped countries like USA, UK and Australia to suffer further reductions to their own standard of living and yet their governments can continue donating to other countries?

i'm not sure about U.K. and Australia but i know that the lion share of "aid" rendered by the U.S. is either earmarked for specific purposes (buying U.S. made products), supporting the 51st state of the U.S. or deemed essential, e.g. Pakistan as supply route to troops in Afghanistan as well as fighting "insurgents"; the latter applies also to Iraq. Egypt is rewarded with cash aid and weaponry since Anwar el-Sadat promised a friendly attitude towards its neighbour Eretz Yisrael.

i am not in a position to judge whether this is fair and reasonable but i have strong doubts that the average Joe in any country would have a $/£/€ more in his pocket if aid is reduced.

I am not at all bashful about making a judgement. If this aid was being directed to countries purely on a humanitarian basis, it perhaps would be acceptable (only perhaps). But this so-called “ aid “in so many cases is nothing more than a form of bribery, so that these donor countries can achieve their geopolitical aspirations and I think that is wholly wrong.

And what a charade for USA to be giving the lion's share of the aid to Israel. I mean think it should be the other way around

[mccw]

If UK aid were for actual strategic purpose then I'd be more supportive of it.

At the moment much seems to go to wrong places for humanity purpose, which is all very commendable except that many the recipient countries seem to have plenty of money of thier own for space or weapons programs- like India or China, and they couldn't give a monkeys if UK gives it to them or not really, so no strategic value either; such countries should be left to get on by themselves now.

cheeryble I have a question for you and Naam.

I have just heard on the Australian News that because of the costs associated with fighting terrorism the Australian government is highly likely to increase taxes. At the same time, the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will not agree to reduce foreign aid from Australia.

My question is what do you think about this kind of situation? Do you think it is fair and reasonable for citizens of various now cash-strapped countries like USA, UK and Australia to suffer further reductions to their own standard of living and yet their governments can continue donating to other countries?

i'm not sure about U.K. and Australia but i know that the lion share of "aid" rendered by the U.S. is either earmarked for specific purposes (buying U.S. made products), supporting the 51st state of the U.S. or deemed essential, e.g. Pakistan as supply route to troops in Afghanistan as well as fighting "insurgents"; the latter applies also to Iraq. Egypt is rewarded with cash aid and weaponry since Anwar el-Sadat promised a friendly attitude towards its neighbour Eretz Yisrael.

i am not in a position to judge whether this is fair and reasonable but i have strong doubts that the average Joe in any country would have a $/£/€ more in his pocket if aid is reduced.

I am not at all bashful about making a judgement. If this aid was being directed to countries purely on a humanitarian basis, it perhaps would be acceptable (only perhaps). But this so-called “ aid “in so many cases is nothing more than a form of bribery, so that these donor countries can achieve their geopolitical aspirations and I think that is wholly wrong.

And what a charade for USA to be giving the lion's share of the aid to Israel. I mean think it should be the other way around

f

[midas]

Given all the dire warnings I quote from the transcript of my favourite news analysis, GPS with Fareed Zakaria, Sept 7th:

"The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently released its semi-annual outlook of the U.S. economy over the next decade. The CBO's headline is that things are going better than expected. We are firmly in an economic recovery with substantially lower federal deficits, lower interest rates and I would add little danger of inflation.

The CBO says that the federal deficit, the gap between revenues and spending, is projected to be $506 billion in 2014. That's just 2.9 percent of GDP, slightly lower than the average shortfall over the last four decades. Keep in mind that in 2009 the federal deficit was 9.8 percent of GDP. The current number is much better than most believed was possible just a few years ago THOUGH STILL AGONIZED OVER DAILY BY MIDAS AND MCCW.

Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman argues that the debt and budget crisis were imaginary and have fizzled. He says the new CBO projections are further proof that the debt apocalypse has been called off.

Given the aging population, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will increase after the next decade, Krugman says, but he notes that health care costs, which play by far the largest role in doomsday budget scenarios, have slowed dramatically. In 2019 the CBO projects that the federal government will spend $95 billion less on Medicare than it had anticipated spending on the program just four years ago. The "New York Times'" Upshot blog points out that $95 billion is more

than the government will spend that year on welfare, unemployment insurance, and Amtrak combined. "

In fairness it says with the baby boom entitlement program's need adjusting to avoid problems in coming decades.....and offers viable solutions.....and I have my own solution which is to line up (not so carefully) chosen medicos and pharmaceutical thieves and shoot them.

Check out Krugman in the NYT if you've made it this far:

http://stateofthemarkets.com/report/30370/

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Shrinking Deficit? Ha! The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Jumps by $1.1 Trillion

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/10/05/dwindling-deficit-ha-us-government-debt-jumps-by-1-1-trillion-in-fiscal-2014/

[MJP]

German industrial output dives 4% in August

Germany's economic ministry said industrial production shrank 4% in August adding to the growing picture of a struggling economy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29517657

[Naam]

"""""

"We all know that nothing will change, but the elections are another reason for us to analyze things as we know best: with a salad and a brandy," said Kalin Vasilev in a Sofia pub.

"We know they (the politicians) will lie to us again," he said. "If you took things too seriously in Bulgaria, you'd have to shoot yourself."

""""""""

-little clip from reutures piece which goes on to detail another hung parliament; unstable government; endemic corruption; banking crises in limbo

And apparently the average salary is 400 euros. About the same as minimum wage in Thailand? 9000bht

And this is the mighty EU. 55; always trying to tell the rest of the world how they should be great democracies and enlightened economic policies like them.

€UR 400 = THB 16,350

[midas]

"""""

"We all know that nothing will change, but the elections are another reason for us to analyze things as we know best: with a salad and a brandy," said Kalin Vasilev in a Sofia pub.

"We know they (the politicians) will lie to us again," he said. "If you took things too seriously in Bulgaria, you'd have to shoot yourself."

""""""""

-little clip from reutures piece which goes on to detail another hung parliament; unstable government; endemic corruption; banking crises in limbo

And apparently the average salary is 400 euros. About the same as minimum wage in Thailand? 9000bht

And this is the mighty EU. 55; always trying to tell the rest of the world how they should be great democracies and enlightened economic policies like them.

Nigel Farage said young people growing up in Sofia see the country is still being run by criminal organisations so why would they possibly want to stay there and it is perfectly understandable they would want to escape to London at the earliest opportunity.

In 2006, the EU dispatched the head of Germany's criminal investigation office Klaus Jansen to assess Bulgaria's progress in fighting organized crime. He concluded that Bulgaria had failed to implement modern principles and methods in the fight against crime, criticising among other things the low commitment of the country's police force to combat organized crime.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_mafia

Edited October 8, 2014 by midas

[Gecko123]

Can't remember his name, but there was a guy on CNBC who was asked what would trigger a major downward swoon in the stock market.

He said that it might be the realization that central banks have lost control of the economy.

I am starting to wonder if we are not on the cusp of that realization.

The world economy seems incredibly vulnerable to me in the event of a major downturn. Governments running deficits means fiscal stimulus options are limited. Central banks from Japan, EU, US, etc., have effectively cut interest rates to zero. Not a lot of options out there.

[chiang mai]

Can't remember his name, but there was a guy on CNBC who was asked what would trigger a major downward swoon in the stock market.

He said that it might be the realization that central banks have lost control of the economy.

I am starting to wonder if we are not on the cusp of that realization.

The world economy seems incredibly vulnerable to me in the event of a major downturn. Governments running deficits means fiscal stimulus options are limited. Central banks from Japan, EU, US, etc., have effectively cut interest rates to zero. Not a lot of options out there.

He's a bit of a doomer but much of what he has to say is highly relevant:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11146273/The-ten-biggest-threats-to-the-global-economy.html

[midas]

Is the same as the John Lewis boss saying France is finished ?This will be worse than telling a junkie. they have to go cold turkey. they will never cope with this

The glory days of France’s welfare model may be behind it.

The country’s Socialist government led by Prime Minister Manuel Valls is chipping away at a system that dispenses 52 billion euros ($66 billion) annually just in family benefits, and is among the most generous in the world. A hemorrhaging public deficit and debt on track to reach about 100 percent of gross domestic product within two years have left the government with little choice but to attack what in France has been a way of life for almost a century.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-08/au-revoir-to-france-s-welfare-model-as-socialists-cut-spending.html

Edited October 10, 2014 by midas

[midas]

Can't remember his name, but there was a guy on CNBC who was asked what would trigger a major downward swoon in the stock market.

He said that it might be the realization that central banks have lost control of the economy.

I am starting to wonder if we are not on the cusp of that realization.

The world economy seems incredibly vulnerable to me in the event of a major downturn. Governments running deficits means fiscal stimulus options are limited. Central banks from Japan, EU, US, etc., have effectively cut interest rates to zero. Not a lot of options out there.

And as people rush back in and buy the dip as they always have in the past maybe they should bear this in mind What If …

When we left off yesterday we were worried. What if we have seen the highs in US stocks and bonds – not just for the next five or 10 years… but for the rest of our lifetimes?

The time between 1945 and 2007 is starting to look less and less like the “way things always are”… and more and more like the “way things were during a special and unusual time.”

Credit can continue to expand for one … two … even 10 years. But not for 50 years. Not without trouble hot on its heels, at least.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=33394

[SheungWan]

Can't remember his name, but there was a guy on CNBC who was asked what would trigger a major downward swoon in the stock market.

He said that it might be the realization that central banks have lost control of the economy.

I am starting to wonder if we are not on the cusp of that realization.

The world economy seems incredibly vulnerable to me in the event of a major downturn. Governments running deficits means fiscal stimulus options are limited. Central banks from Japan, EU, US, etc., have effectively cut interest rates to zero. Not a lot of options out there.

And as people rush back in and buy the dip as they always have in the past maybe they should bear this in mind What If …

When we left off yesterday we were worried. What if we have seen the highs in US stocks and bonds – not just for the next five or 10 years… but for the rest of our lifetimes?

The time between 1945 and 2007 is starting to look less and less like the “way things always are”… and more and more like the “way things were during a special and unusual time.”

Credit can continue to expand for one … two … even 10 years. But not for 50 years. Not without trouble hot on its heels, at least.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=33394

The risk of buying on the dip is always that of buying a falling knife and the lowest point of a dive is when the future looks at its most pessimistic. its a judgement call. My own personal call is to buy into those stocks which one has studied over a period of time and which one would like to hold longer term anyway. No guarantee of success in the immediate term but then there cannot be. If one holds that we are going to hell in a hellcart then I guess that labels one as having a risk averse profile and should therefore not indulge.

[mccw]

Did you see the Thai consider new constitution law to say no government can engage in populist policies which might damage the nation (EC discretion) and no future government may borrow or target to spend more during the next four years than is likely to be taken in from tax receipts.

How's that for a more responsible model the west could do with learning from? Oh yeah; if west were to actually try and balance the books the resulting loss of spending would = Armageddon 55

[mccw]

Hopefully Thailand can avoid such a sticky mess and try a different; more sustainable path.

[Somtamme]

Hopefully Thailand can avoid such a sticky mess and try a different; more sustainable path.

Yes, but sustainable means many different things to many ppl, but as a start, it would help if it started investing more in sustainable future. Increasing demand for electricity with new power stations being planned, energy imports to come from neighbouring countries, increasing levels of traffic in Thailand and flood risk cannot really be considered as long term sustainable.

[Naam]

Hopefully Thailand can avoid such a sticky mess and try a different; more sustainable path.

Yes, but sustainable means many different things to many ppl, but as a start, it would help if it started investing more in sustainable future. Increasing demand for electricity with new power stations being planned, energy imports to come from neighbouring countries, increasing levels of traffic in Thailand and flood risk cannot really be considered as long term sustainable.

most European countries depend on importing energy without the possibility of a "sustainable path". and new power stations cannot generate electricity out of thin air. for that purpose they need primary energy (e.g. fossile fuels or gas) which has to be imported.

[Somtamme]

Yes, agree, there is always need for central electricity generating capacity, but more should be done to reduce dependency.