£ Nudging 52 Bht

[DavidOxon]

Hi Guru's all

is this a bounce or a trend - and why is it happening?

Cheers

David

[Chivas]

No trend as such.

Baht/Dollar is still stable at 35, but Sterling is just regaining some ground re the Dollar after being dramtically oversold previously.

Chivas

[misterman21]

Agreed, the pound was dramatically oversold during the bad news - re economic data. When it was a golden opportuninty to buy at 48 i.e. most people didn't have the courage to buy.

Funny how we all seem to operate. We see a golden chance and start to flap (me included). Even though commom sense tells us that the UK was far from alone with finacial troubles.

I - for those who care to recall forcasted buying gold when it was less than $500 per ounce. Funny thing is though i tried to cash in at some local shops in Pattaya recently and they wouldnt buy back at the set wieght (not on a week end). Time for a downward correction one thinks.

Edited February 9, 2009 by misterman21

[ukrules]

No trend as such.

Baht/Dollar is still stable at 35, but Sterling is just regaining some ground re the Dollar after being dramtically oversold previously.

Chivas

I now nothing about currency trading but I read somewhere that the pound started regaining value after the Bank of England base interest rate dropped to 1% during the week. There's been some good movement against the Euro recently as well.

[Briggsy]

No trend as such.

Baht/Dollar is still stable at 35, but Sterling is just regaining some ground re the Dollar after being dramtically oversold previously.

Chivas

I concur.

[theoldgit]

I was so upset when the pound went down to 60 Baht, oh how I wish those days would return

[Mobi]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

[Chivas]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

[chiang mai]

Hi Guru's all

is this a bounce or a trend - and why is it happening?

Cheers

David

Bounce.

[ozfarang81]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

[Maizefarmer]

Expect this to continue - the Bahts heydays are numbered - expect a slow but continual downturn (against Western currencies) for the rest of this year - and quite possibly a steep drop last quater '09, or during first 2 quaters '10.

Hang on to your forex - now is not the time to change it into Baht - wait to later this year, and even better first half next year.

[ray08]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

[chiang mai]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

I for one will be interested to learn why you think the Baht will fall, can you give examples?

[Mobi]

Expect this to continue - the Bahts heydays are numbered - expect a slow but continual downturn (against Western currencies) for the rest of this year - and quite possibly a steep drop last quater '09, or during first 2 quaters '10.

Hang on to your forex - now is not the time to change it into Baht - wait to later this year, and even better first half next year.

Unfortunately, in the meantime we have to live, take care of sick buffaloes and feed the rubber plantations....

[lannarebirth]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

You may be right, we'll just have to wait and see. Not sure why you think those other currencies will rise though. If the baht falls against the dollar, I'd guess most other currencies will as well.

[Naam]

lo and behold! as so often the prophets have spoken. unfortunately until today most prophets who posted on TV were wrong, no matter what references they used for their conclusions. let's check in a year again who was right and who was wrong

[lannarebirth]

lo and behold! as so often the prophets have spoken. unfortunately until today most prophets who posted on TV were wrong, no matter what references they used for their conclusions. let's check in a year again who was right and who was wrong

Or you could just look back one year.

[Mobi]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

You may be right, we'll just have to wait and see. Not sure why you think those other currencies will rise though. If the baht falls against the dollar, I'd guess most other currencies will as well.

The rate for the Baht against most currencies is always pegged to the Baht/Dollar rate. Thus if the Pound falls against the dollar, it will also fall against the Baht, and vice versa.

You can always approximate the value of the pound against the dollar by taking the Baht/Dollar rate and the Pound/Dollar rate, and calculating the cross rate.

Thus taking the buying rates on the front page of today's Business Post (Last Friday's close): Dollar/Baht:34.94, Pound/Dollar: 1.43.

So 34.94 x 1.43 = 49.96.

Turn to page B9: Pound /Baht buying rate: 49.85.

When the pound was worth over 2 dollars, we were getting over 70 Baht for our pounds.

It is always thus.

[lannarebirth]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

You may be right, we'll just have to wait and see. Not sure why you think those other currencies will rise though. If the baht falls against the dollar, I'd guess most other currencies will as well.

The rate for the Baht against most currencies is always pegged to the Baht/Dollar rate. Thus if the Pound falls against the dollar, it will also fall against the Baht, and vice versa.

You can always approximate the value of the pound against the dollar by taking the Baht/Dollar rate and the Pound/Dollar rate, and calculating the cross rate.

Thus taking the buying rates on the front page of today's Business Post (Last Friday's close): Dollar/Baht:34.94, Pound/Dollar: 1.43.

So 34.94 x 1.43 = 49.96.

Turn to page B9: Pound /Baht buying rate: 49.85.

When the pound was worth over 2 dollars, we were getting over 70 Baht for our pounds.

It is always thus.

Ah, I see.

[Mobi]

I for one will be interested to learn why you think the Baht will fall, can you give examples?

At the risk of being pilloried by the estimable Naam, I would say that most commentators point to the vulnerability of the Thai economy due to it's very high dependence on exports. This worked well when the world economy was pumping along, but will have extremely negative effects during a world recession, due to the decreased demands for the their products.

I have read many articles, and if you Google, I doubt you will find one source that puts an optimistic slant on Thailand's economy for 2009. Even the government's own Finance minister has been giving pretty dire predictions.

This little summary from "Oxford Analytica" sums it up pretty well:

"The region's (SE Asia) major economies are export-oriented, trade dependent and driven by foreign direct investment. All are in the top 50 exporters globally, while Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are among the ten most trade-dependent major economies. This makes the region vulnerable to the trade and investment slowdown that will affect the world economy next year."

But there again... I could be wrong

[yabaaaa]

Then again u could be right but the real honest answer is no one has a clue whats going to happen because it hasnt happened yet, get Naams dog to fill you in, he must be raking it in at the moment with his powers

[JimsKnight]

Blast off!

Don't overdo the thrusters this time Speedy!

[12DrinkMore]

I for one will be interested to learn why you think the Baht will fall, can you give examples?

And me too.

This has been on the wish list for years and never happens. What's against a slow increase in Asian currencies to pre 1997 levels? Been there once, now 12 years down the line, the Asian banking system is not is a fkuking mess, there is no industry in the West to replace the imports from Asia. The costs of the jobless, the pensioners, the massive government overheads are much lower. The work force is much more flexible, food is abundant.

So the question is, even when the GBP goes further down the pan, which it surely must do (Brown will reduce interest rates again, The BoE has already announced the first 50,000,000,000 Pounds of printed money, which willl debase every single Pound currently in existence), the Brits, the Americans, the rest of Europe will HAVE TO import goods from Asia. And if they cost more, well, so what, unless the end selling price escalates to such a level that it makes economic sense to build manufacturing plants in the West. And how long will that take?

Until the point is reached that it is considered better value for money to take holidays in Europe and buy European goods, then I reckon the Asian currencies will remain steady or increase. At the moment and probably for the next few years as this depression goes ever deeper, the west will be paying off debts, saving money and hunkering down. Whether that TV or car is 10% cheaper or not is not going to make a difference.

And then ask maybe, what currency will be required in payment for the Asian goods? Dollars, Euro or maybe Yen and then maybe even the Yuan at some point. Will they even want to see a GBP based on the promise of Brown to repay it with more printed GBPs?

Look at the States, they are even SAYING that the Yuan should be more expensive.

Don't count on your Quids being worth 60 Baht in the next decade. And, if it gets really bad, don't count on your GBPs being worth the paper they are not even printed on!!!!

Edited February 9, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[JetsetBkk]

Hi Guru's all

is this a bounce or a trend - and why is it happening?

Cheers

David

If I knew why, I wouldn't be in Thailand posting on an internet forum - I'd be on my yacht in the Med.

[12DrinkMore]

is this a bounce or a trend - and why is it happening?

My guess is that the dam_n speculators shorted the GBP on the expectation that Cyclops would reduce the interest rate and then had to cover their positions after the event.

[ray08]

There's a long way to go yet, but IMO the Baht will gradually depreciate against most major currencies, including the pound.

As has been discussed many times in these forums, the Baht appears to be over valued, and will lose value over the coming months as the full effects of it's dependence on exports and tourism starts to hit home.

But then again ...I am probably wrong

No you are almost certainly correct-the Baht will weaken and analysts I follow all concur in that the longer it holds at the present level the faster the decline will be when it starts.

Chivas

I sure hope you guys are right, hating the 22 baht we get for the Aussie of late!

IMO this year will see the Baht go back to USD 38- 40 , Aud 28-30 and GBP over 60 , The Baht is way overvalued ,and eventually the market will react to this and sell it off , on top of it simple fundamentals like exports which are in USD but eventually sold to buy THB are falling so less buying of Thai Baht ,International investment in 2009 way down ,and tourism down as well ,Baht should fall against major currencies

I for one will be interested to learn why you think the Baht will fall, can you give examples?

As posted ,by less demand for exports ,and tourism ,people will not be selling foreign currencies to buy THb , causing a weakness, and if the government and BOT get their act together a weaker THB will go a long way to helping the Thai economy ,increases in unemployment in manufacturing has already started, i see no direction but a weaker THB going forward, but who really knows???

Edited February 9, 2009 by ray08

[ray08]

lo and behold! as so often the prophets have spoken. unfortunately until today most prophets who posted on TV were wrong, no matter what references they used for their conclusions. let's check in a year again who was right and who was wrong

Odds are better than a horse race or Vegas for that matter, can go either up or down,

and to hedge against being wrong one can post under a different name and predict thb to strenghten,

But my scientific way of reading the upturned turkish coffee cups , Baht will weaken

Edited February 9, 2009 by ray08

[Naam]

I for one will be interested to learn why you think the Baht will fall, can you give examples?

At the risk of being pilloried by the estimable Naam, I would say that most commentators point to the vulnerability of the Thai economy due to it's very high dependence on exports. This worked well when the world economy was pumping along, but will have extremely negative effects during a world recession, due to the decreased demands for the their products.

that of course is a valid reason why the Bank of Thailand might stop its alleged intervention in the currency market thus causing a weakening of THB. what we don't know whether other reasons exist to keep the currency artificially high which the BOT considers more important.

basically i agree that THB is overvalued and poised to weaken. but i'm not that arrogant (as it seems many other posters are) to predict for that a timetable and a certain exchange rate or rubbish such as "will crash". those who tried to forecast currencies (not only THB but GPB, AUD, NZD, EUR et al) failed miserably as the last 12 months clearly show.

[ray08]

Central bank intervention in protecting a currency comes at a cost ,if the currency comes under attack it could become very costly to protect the currency ,i wonder if anyone has any info of the size of Central Bank funds?

[chiang mai]

Central bank intervention in protecting a currency comes at a cost ,if the currency comes under attack it could become very costly to protect the currency ,i wonder if anyone has any info of the size of Central Bank funds?

Reserves of circa USD 110 billion.