If Al Gore Is Right And Temps Increase By 5 Degrees

[canuckamuck]

Here is the average annual mean temps for Chiang Mai.

I don't know if it proves anything at all, interesting to note the hottest 3 years were all in the 90's (1990 /26.25C) (1991 /26.83C) (1998 /26.58C ) but 2005 (26.08) and 2008 (25.83) were hot too.

It would be interesting to see this taken back a couple more decades. But I would have to find an easier site to pull the data from. Once again, no data for 1995.

Edited May 3, 2009 by canuckamuck

[churchill]

From looking at your chart I would say that average temperatures where on the rise - taking 85-95 and 95 onwards .

"Don't know about India, and Africa is a big place, but the Thai birth rate is now so low that it doesn't sustain the population at the current level. It's actually lower than the birth rate in the USA.

Big Thai families with lots of siblings are a thing of the past."

Here you go

The World's New Numbers

by Martin Walker

"Something dramatic has happened to the world’s birthrates. Defying predictions of demographic decline, northern Europeans have started having more babies. Britain and France are now projecting steady population growth through the middle of the century. In North America, the trends are similar. In 2050, according to United Nations projections, it is possible that nearly as many babies will be born in the United States as in China. Indeed, the population of the world’s current demographic colossus will be shrinking. And China is but one particularly sharp example of a widespread fall in birthrates that is occurring across most of the developing world, including much of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The one glaring exception to this trend is sub-Saharan Africa, which by the end of this century may be home to ­one-­third of the human ­race. "

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuse...essay_id=519403

[Jingthing]

I can see that many of you poo poo the message that global warming may be real and serious just because it comes from Al Gore. So who would you believe? The ghost of Ronald Reagan?

[jaideeguy]

Thanks again Canuk for your graphs that do put it into an easier to comprehend perspective. So, the conclusion to be made is that temps fluctuate on a yearly basis and no trend upwards that is obvious. So, maybe it's just me [and Al Gore] that feels like my globe are warming.

re: poor Al....it's too bad that he is the 'champion' of global warming as he is a hard nut to warm up to. His message would have been a lot more convincing if someone with a little charisma made the delivery. I slept thru his movie altho he did have something to say.

[churchill]

. "So, the conclusion to be made is that temps fluctuate on a yearly basis and no trend upwards that is obvious."

I disagree if you take 85-95 and then 95 onwards there is clearly an increase in the average temperatures over a 10 year cycle .

Can we go back further ?

[canuckamuck]

Well I have thought about going back further, but I think we all have seen the global temp charts showing the rise in temperature from the beginning of the century to about the 40's Then it drops till about 1974 when it starts the warming trend that we are just coming out of in the last few years.

I imagine the Chiang Mai chart would show a similar trend.

I have to leave town for about a week now, and I won't be able to goof around with the chart. Maybe later

My main purpose for putting the chart together was to show that the last few years were not specifically hot years especially compared to the 90's.

[rafval]

It's rather self-important and frankly arrogant to believe that humans alone can have such an impact on and are solely responsible for a change in the five quadrillion metric ton atmosphere.

yes, its kind like thinking that almost all the arable land in the west has been turned into farms and we have fished the seas empty, totally arrogant to think that humans might be capable of such a thing

[rafval]

I can see that many of you poo poo the message that global warming may be real and serious just because it comes from Al Gore. So who would you believe? The ghost of Ronald Reagan?

they could could check out the actual science and data but it seems al gore is the only that can simplify enough for them to even have a small clue, oh, theres that petition, that proves it then, who needs facts

Edited May 5, 2009 by rafval

[coventry]

An American told us that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. So why should we believe what an American tells us now ?

[Jingthing]

An American told us that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. So why should we believe what an American tells us now ?

That was probably the lamest anti-American jab I have read all week.

[Birdman]

An American told us that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. So why should we believe what an American tells us now ?

hahaha

another American said: give me a F...

...what's that mean?

Edited May 5, 2009 by Birdman

[churchill]

The most dangerous species in the Mediterranean

http://www.imagedash.com/uploads/viu1241549207b.jpg

[JetsetBkk]

I can see that many of you poo poo the message that global warming may be real and serious just because it comes from Al Gore. So who would you believe? The ghost of Ronald Reagan?

Not so important who says it, but what they say.

[bonobo]

I would go back to Europe, warm enough there then and it should be warm enough for some nice palm trees too.

Except that global warming might very well make Europe colder! If more and more of the polar ice cap melts, that could serve to stop the Gulf Stream.   And if the Gulf Stream stops, then western Europe will more closely reflect Canada's climate.

[bonobo]

It's rather self-important and frankly arrogant to believe that humans alone can have such an impact on and are solely responsible for a change in the five quadrillion metric ton atmosphere.

Almost the entire world's scientific community agrees that global warming is upon us.  What is not so agreed upon is the cause of it or how much mankind is contributing to it.  I don't think anyone, at least I have never read it from anyone, who says humans alone are casuing global warming.

But if things continue, we would be foolish to ignore it and not plan for the future.  Whether is is totally unrelated to mankind's actions or not, if it comes, it will affect all of us.

And even if, let's say, most of it is natural flucuations and mankind's actions only nudge it a little, don't you think we should do our best to minimalize that nudging?

[jackr]

Whether temps go up or down of their own accord is irrelevant; thowing billions of tons of <deleted> into the part of the atmosphere that counts is, and having the nous to show that we actually care is the key here. It's not our planet, we're just very lucky, short-term tenants!

[thaihome]

Yep, the world’s climate is changing, nothing nen there. Nobody knows how much impact man has had in that, but it is doubtful in the overall scheme of things there was much.

Yep, we spew a tremendous amount of shit into the atmosphere that is impacting people’s quality of life. That needs to be controlled, but this carbon credit con job is not the way. The technology exists to drastically control it, but in developing countries it takes away a large part of their economic advantage of lower cost to do so. Same with water pollution.

TH

[Gerontion]

About all that can be said for threads like this is that they at least reveal just how stupid and ill-informed most people are. There is an Everest, no a Himalaya, of evidence to support theories of anthropogenic climate change and against this the "skeptics" (though better-named simply idiots) have not a sand grain of counter-evidence. Concentrations of atmospheric CO2, along with other greenhouse gases, are known to have increased. Average temperatures are known to have increased. Climate change is happening now. There is no debate as to the whether or not anthropogenic climate change is real, at least for those who are, at a minimum, on speaking terms with reality. There is, however, debate, amongst other things, about the degree of sensitivity of the climate to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and of how feedback mechanisms are operating. Of course, much as people deny the reality of the holocaust, or evolution, or the moon landings, idiots will always insist that climate change is a myth. They are wrong and remain idiots.

But to respond to the OP, a five degree increase in temperatures (and that would be an increase in 5 degrees on average globally by the end of the century, not within 15 years) would put the entire world safely in the truly – and possibly on human timescales irredeemably – f_ucked category. It wouldn’t really matter whether you were in Thailand or Tyneside, chances are you’d be screwed (and don’t forget that by the end of this century, world population will, all things being equal, be 50% higher than at present so things are going to be a mite tricky anyway). Plant yields will fall in higher temperatures and there’s a good chance that the Asian monsoon will be disrupted, with obvious consequences. Couple this with a drying up of glacial melt water and significantly more violent weather events and huge swathes of the world will be under very, very major water stress. Huge migration can be expected as food production and distribution breaks down, coastal population centres become increasingly uninhabitable and as life in the tropics becomes simply unbearable. There’s a very good book available called “Six Degrees” which goes into some detail about the consequences of a temperature rise of, in turn, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 degrees and unlike the wishful thinking of climate-change deniers, it’s based on peer-reviewed papers. It makes for grim reading but I thoroughly recommend it.

[Ulysses G.]

There are a good number of major scientists that do not agree with you. You have no no monopoly on brains or truth.

[Jingthing]

There are a good number of major scientists that do not agree with you. You have no no monopoly on brains or truth.

And if you are wrong, our species dies, while you are arguing and attacking Al Gore and other silly liberals. You lot are really big gamblers.

[Ulysses G.]

You are starting to sound like Pascal. We should believe in Al Gore just in case it is true!

[bonobo]

It really does not matter if global warming is strictly a natural swing or if mankind is a major cause of it.  Global warming is a reality, and we (or our children) will all feel its effects.  So if we don't plan for it now, if we don't try to mitigate the severity of it, we are being myopically stupid.

And it is not as if there are good reasons to keep pumping pollutants into the air.  Let's go out on the Rush Limbaugh limb here and say that all the cars belching pollution are not a cause of global warming.  If we reduced that huge amount of pollutants, and even if that had no effect on global warming, what would be the result?  Well, cleaner air and a much healthier population. And that is bad in exactly what way?

What sincerly bothers me about the head-in-the-sand global warming deniers is that they seemingly all want to keep up the status quo, and just what positive action can that accomplish?  Continued pollution, escalating energy costs, shortages of oil?  This is what they want?

[Jingthing]

You are starting to sound like Pascal. We should believe in Al Gore just in case it is true!

Al Gore's position is very similar to many mainstream scientists. I guess you don't have kids.

[bonobo]

You are starting to sound like Pascal. We should believe in Al Gore just in case it is true!

Despite some tobacco-paid-for scientists and doctors, most of the scientific community has declared that smoking is bad for your health.  So I tend to believe them and the Surgeon General, and I don't smoke "just in case it is true," as you put it.

What is better, to take action "in case it is true" and find out later you didn't have to take that action, or to ignore the warnings and suffer huge catastropic consequences as a result of your inaction?

[Ulysses G.]

It's rather self-important and frankly arrogant to believe that humans alone can have such an impact on and are solely responsible for a change in the five quadrillion metric ton atmosphere.

Almost the entire world's scientific community agrees that global warming is upon us. What is not so agreed upon is the cause of it or how much mankind is contributing to it. I don't think anyone, at least I have never read it from anyone, who says humans alone are casuing global warming.

But if things continue, we would be foolish to ignore it and not plan for the future. Whether is is totally unrelated to mankind's actions or not, if it comes, it will affect all of us.

And even if, let's say, most of it is natural flucuations and mankind's actions only nudge it a little, don't you think we should do our best to minimalize that nudging?

Actually, I go along with most of this. I always rather error on the side of caution, but there are plenty of scientists that think that global warming is more natural than man made.

[JR Texas]

It's rather self-important and frankly arrogant to believe that humans alone can have such an impact on and are solely responsible for a change in the five quadrillion metric ton atmosphere.

Almost the entire world's scientific community agrees that global warming is upon us. What is not so agreed upon is the cause of it or how much mankind is contributing to it. I don't think anyone, at least I have never read it from anyone, who says humans alone are casuing global warming.

But if things continue, we would be foolish to ignore it and not plan for the future. Whether is is totally unrelated to mankind's actions or not, if it comes, it will affect all of us.

And even if, let's say, most of it is natural flucuations and mankind's actions only nudge it a little, don't you think we should do our best to minimalize that nudging?

Actually, I go along with most of this. I always rather error on the side of caution, but there are plenty of scientists that think that global warming is more natural than man made.

You err on the side of caution and yet roll the dice hoping that a few irresponsible scientists (paid for by the oil industry) are right and the 99.9% of responsible scientists who are studying the phenomenon and publishing in peer review journals are wrong. This is the most ill-conceived planetary experiment that the human species has ever been part of. It is stupid beyond imagination. The earth's atmosphere is very thin......the part that is breathable (where life is present) is even thinner.

How many other planets in the universe that we know about have atmosphere's that support life? Answer: none. We are playing a dangerous game.......rolling the fossil fuel/economic growth at all cost dice........gambling that the atmosphere can take anything we dump into it.

Future generations may want to lynch us all if we do not take action today to stop global warming.

"What a gift is this life, this earth........by whatever means we must acknowledge the gift or it might just go away."

[churchill]

Brazil Amazon deforestation soars

The Brazilian government has announced a huge rise in the rate of Amazon deforestation, months after celebrating its success in achieving a reduction.

In the last five months of 2007, 3,235 sq km (1,250 sq miles) were lost.

Gilberto Camara, of INPE, an institute that provides satellite imaging of the area, said the rate of loss was unprecedented for the time of year.

Officials say rising commodity prices are encouraging farmers to clear more land to plant crops such as soya

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7206165.stm

[Ulysses G.]

You err on the side of caution and yet roll the dice hoping that a few irresponsible scientists (paid for by the oil industry) are right and the 99.9% of responsible scientists who are studying the phenomenon and publishing in peer review journals are wrong.

This is a perfect example of the kind of bullsheet that puts most people off and why normal people often ignore what you are saying. There are plenty of legit, responsible scientists who would say that you are wrong, but you pretend that it is only a few nuts and then wonder why the world ends up ignoring you.

Why not be honest and admit that not everyone who cares for the planet agrees with you and take it from there?

[Birdman]

If Al Gore Is Right And Temps Increase By 5 Degrees, What would you do??

Consider, that visas for Northern countries...for foreign spouses...will be xxx times harder to get than now, because of mass exodus from the hot countries.

[tim armstrong]

Whether Al Gore and others are right or not about global warming/climate change, the fact is ...........WE ARE TRASHING THIS PLANET and the air that surrounds us!!!

And up here in Chiang Mai, it does seem to be getting hotter and drier over the last decade that I've been here.

Would like to see some figures on temp and rainfall over the last decade or more!!

Agree with you jaidee. I can't believe that so many people still choose to ignore the obvious about the planet. Curiously if you come from a farming background as I do - its even more obvious, but farmers are amongst the most vocal of the disbelievers. But to address the topic - 15 years is still enough time to plant your own bit of rainforest somewhere in Thailand, or just a whole lot more trees on your own block. I think that would be my first choice, although Antarctica has some attractions. But by then it will have gated communities full of retired politicians and their friends.